Beating Yankees is never easy in Baltimore

As the New York Yankees and Tampa Rays roll into Camden Yards in a legitimate pennant race in August, Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the real circumstances of the American League Wild Card situation and the open door for the Birds to play in October. But, first, the Bronx Bombers and pinstripe mystique…

The discussion focused on whether Baltimore can realistically stay in the American League wild card race during a pivotal home stretch against the Yankees and Rays.

Playoff Context

• Nestor emphasized that Baltimore is still tied for a wild card spot in mid-August, with low ticket prices and meaningful games at Camden Yards creating unusual late-season relevance.
• Luke agreed the opportunity is real because six teams are separated by roughly one game for the final wild card position, but he stressed that Baltimore has been under .500 since early May and has not sustained momentum for long.

Reasons For Hope

• Nestor pointed to recent signs of life: three straight wins before Monday, multiple leads against Tampa Bay, improved contributions from Pete Alonso, Jackson Holliday, Gunnar Henderson, and Encarnacion-Strand, and the possibility of Samuel Basayo returning soon.
• The argument for optimism was not that Baltimore is elite, but that a short five-week run could be enough if the club plays several games over .500 and takes advantage of a weak wild card field.

Reasons For Concern

• Luke repeatedly returned to the same issue: every positive stretch has been followed by regression. He cited the club’s repeated failures to build on brief surges and warned that another 2-4 homestand would reinforce that pattern.
• He also framed the expanded wild card format as lowering the standard, allowing sub-.500 teams to remain relevant and reducing pressure on front offices to be more aggressive.

Pitching Questions

• Luke identified starting-pitcher workload as the biggest baseball issue over the final 37 games, specifically for Brandon Young, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, and Rodgers.
• He argued that Baltimore must monitor fatigue, velocity, swing-and-miss trends, and health indicators rather than push pitchers recklessly for a marginal playoff berth.
• Against the Yankees, the matchup concern is straightforward: even without Aaron Judge at full strength, New York still pitches at a very high level, with Carlos Rodon, Max Fried, and Gerrit Cole creating a difficult series.

Open Questions

• Can Baltimore finally sustain a productive stretch instead of alternating brief highs and lows?
• Will returning players such as Basayo, Blaze Alexander, or bullpen help materially improve the roster?
• Can the Orioles win this homestand and turn a theoretical race into a credible September push?

Wild Card Race

• Nestor and Luke discussed Baltimore’s position in the American League wild card standings.
• The core tension was whether being tied for a playoff spot in August should be embraced despite the club’s sub-.500 record.

Value Of The Moment

• Nestor argued that meaningful August games against the Yankees at Camden Yards matter on their own.
• He framed this week as a rare chance for late-season energy, fan interest, and a realistic path into October.

Evidence Against Trusting The Team

• Luke noted the Orioles have not been above .500 since early in the season.
• He cited repeated examples of the team failing to build on winning stretches and warned that this has defined the season.

Trade Deadline And Roster Construction

• The discussion revisited Mike Elias and the decision to sell short-term assets while still leaving a narrow playoff path.
• Nestor argued the front office has more internal information on players such as Tyler Wells and others than outside observers do.

Lineup And Returning Players

• Nestor highlighted optimism around Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Jackson Holliday, and Encarnacion-Strand.
• Luke added that Samuel Basayo could return soon, while Blaze Alexander may help but carries performance and health uncertainty.

Rotation And Workload

• Luke focused on workload management for Brandon Young, Kyle Bradish, Shane Baz, and other starters.
• He argued the Orioles should monitor fatigue closely and avoid compromising long-term health for a weak wild card chase.

Yankees Series Stakes

• The upcoming series was treated as a major test of whether Baltimore can sustain relevance.
• Luke noted New York’s offense has flaws, especially around Aaron Judge‘s status, but its pitching remains a significant obstacle.

Nestor Aparicio 0:01
Welcome home. We are WNST AM 1570 Towson Baltimore. We’re Baltimore positive. When I grow up, I’ll get a gig, and none as good as doing the Maryland Crab Cake Tour and all the fun stuff we’re planning for football season. I know there’s going to be a football season. I’m not sure there’s going to be another baseball season, but at least we have one for right now. Luke Jones is going to be down at Orio Park at Camden Yards doing all things Yankees in town. I’m talking Leonard Raskin, and it may be going on Wednesday night. Wednesday’s no good. Let’s take another. Wednesday’s my not my yoga night. It’s my yoga off night, you know. So I I might make it Wednesday night. But I know this. Wednesday afternoon, I’m at Fishmonger’s Daughter. I will be with Bill Cole, who I’ll try to talk into going. Also, Damian and a blast from the past. Dennis Kalazos is going to be coming out because his family had Mount Olympus, which was the stall next to Fadley’s at Lexington Market. So he wants to give love to the Divine family because he’s known them since he was a little puppy. Come in when he-I think he knew Greek before he knew English. I’m going to ask him. It’s all brought to you by friends at the Maryland Lottery. It’s our community thing, man. It’s like Catonsville and Arbutus and Paradise and Halethorpe and Baltimore Highland. I went through that the other day at great detail with people who considered themselves Lansdowne people as opposed. to Arbutus people or Baltimore Highlands people. So y’all confuse me over there. GBMC puts us on the road as well as Farnan and Dermer. And as a personal challenge to Zach Dermer, I am wearing the bowling shirt. If somebody put this on, Luke, I feel like I want you to wear it, and I want to be like Laverne and Shirley, and we want to go to like the shots because it feels to me like I’m delivering beer to the back of King Discount Liquors. I love I love it, man. But it’s it’s very comfortable. It’s very nice on the inside. So big thanks to the comfort guys. They they have comfortable shirts, and Zach pointed that out. He said it may not look good, but it’s really comfortable. It’s a high quality shirt, so I’m gonna say that. How are you, man? All good things come to an end at the blimp down in Tampa, and Pete Alonso is. I was gonna get my Superman belt out for Pete Alonso, but dude, they’re live, right? I mean, you’re going to the frigging ballpark this week, and the and the Ravens are going to Camp Cream Puff up in Minnesota, where it might be in the 60s. Maybe I don’t know. I haven’t looked at the weather, but either way, you’re going the ballpark. The Yankees and the Razor in town, and I don’t know, dude. They could hit their way, and they could win a couple. I don’t know. I I’m not that I believe or don’t believe, but I believe that they could win tonight or tomorrow or the next day because of their pitching, at least.

Luke Jones 2:41
Well, it’s funny you say that because their pitching cost them on Monday night. I mean, really, I mean, it wasn’t a very good outing for Brandon Young to say the least, and Yenier Cano, who’s been outstanding against everybody other than the Rays this year, and obviously this series, a couple really rough outings for him. But when he

Nestor Aparicio 2:59
bobbled the ball and didn’t even reach back down. He’s standing in the baseline, and I’m like, “All right, yeah, I mean, I mean, Albernaz just like, okay, let’s go. You know, I mean,

Luke Jones 3:07
right, but but it was, you know, it’s disappointing just because they had what three different leads in this game. I mean, Mayo hits the home run in the second inning. That my goodness, I mean, that ball hasn’t landed yet. It’s 468 feet.

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Nestor Aparicio 3:19
I see that boy’s potential. I mean, hey,

Luke Jones 3:24
we’ve said it for months now with Kobe Mayo. I mean, say what you want about him as an everyday player. Say what you want about his defense. Say what you want about him against right-handed pitching, which he has been better of against of of late. He can absolutely pummel lefties. I mean, there’s no doubt. I mean, Shane McClanahan greeted very rudely by Kobe Mayo. By the way, that was my

Nestor Aparicio 3:44
Sid Thrift, but it wasn’t a very good one. Yeah, my better Sid here would be that boy’s got potential.

Luke Jones 3:53
I didn’t know if you were doing Sid Thrift or Foghorn Leghorn, right? Because that was that was always the joke that Sid Thrift. Look, look,

Nestor Aparicio 3:59
did I ever tell you about the time I discovered Barry Barnes,

Luke Jones 4:04
but but yeah, just one of those one of those nights. First of all, just as a baseball fan, it was a very entertaining back and forth game. I mean, it had some. I don’t want to call it October because it’s not. It’s August still. You better

Nestor Aparicio 4:19
hope the Orioles are playing an October game like that because that’s kind of what it would look like. Other than well, the stadium it’d be empty down there either way. But you know, in a general sense, yeah, I I feel like look, man, you’re going to the ballpark and you tell me you have any little hair on the back of your neck or a little something that the Yankees are in town and they’re playing some games that do have some meaning, that do have some stakes. That if they win a couple of them, it could be get a whole five-week season for them. That I’m not. They’re not winning the world anything. I mean, I like, but just keeping the season alive. Just maybe having a little pepper at the ballpark and winning. Literally tonight, literally winning tonight, which would begat me wanting to go out there Wednesday night, drag Bill Cole and anybody else that might be sitting at the bar, Fishmonger’s daughter with me on Wednesday.

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Luke Jones 5:12
You know, I mean, look, you look at the standings, you look at the math, you look at the fact that they’re tied for a wild card spot, you look at the fact that there are six teams right now separated by a game. August Wildcards, and they’re tied

Nestor Aparicio 5:25
for the wild cards. But all these things are all that. All that-that’s the record. Don’t don’t. I was just going to say you’re just saying that, and we’re waking up today. They should be doing. You know, Jaris over WBAL should have ratings out the door, right? Like everybody should be on to it. It’s like literally those words that they’re in a position on august 18 with the Yankees coming to town to be a playoff team.

Luke Jones 5:51
Yes. However,

Nestor Aparicio 5:52
I’m not playing the role of Katie Griggs, but I kind of am a little bit.

Luke Jones 5:56
Look, all of that is true, but we’re still talking about a team that has it been 500 since May 1st? Has it been above 500 since April 15th? I mean, that’s is that the reason

Nestor Aparicio 6:08
not to go to the ballpark tonight? I

Luke Jones 6:10
mean, no. And I said this to you coming, you know, coming out of the weekend where they win three straight. I mean, it was a great series at the Trop that they lost Mondays, not this devastating development.

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Nestor Aparicio 6:20
All right, hold on. I’m checking ticket prices right now. But that

Luke Jones 6:22
said, you will try to. Oh, while Bill

Nestor Aparicio 6:25
and me wants to get everybody, you know what I mean. I just, I want it to feel like not like Yankee Stadium and them getting their ass kicked seven to two in the season. But at the same time,

Luke Jones 6:34
I can’t be disingenuous about it, right? I mean, this is a sub 500 team and has been for four months, right? And, but, but the truth is, so are the Texas Rangers. So are so are the Detroit Tigers. So is Minnesota. So is Toronto. Cleveland. Seattle has won a couple games, and and despite the fact they’re seven games under 500, they’re only two out of the final wild card spot. I mean, that’s all these teams. So if we’re going to just accept that that as I’ve coined it, it’s the race of the undead. These teams are much more undead than alive. You know, it’s like zombie baseball for for the third wild card spot in the American League. Putting that aside, yeah, there’s nothing wrong with embracing it in in the micro. I mean, I’m not. I guess what I’m trying to say is, you can embrace it and have fun with it in the moment while still holding on to very legitimate concerns in the big picture with Michaelias, with the direction of the organization. Yes, with the lockout coming, all those different things. But do they have a shot? Of course they do. Now they’re going to play

Nestor Aparicio 7:40
a game on Wednesday, august 19, against the Yankees, and tickets are going to be 19 bucks to get in, and they’re 25 Tuesday, 19 Wednesday, 22/3. I don’t know how the algorithm puts this all together, but you know they’ve-I don’t want to say done their job. You know who’s done their job? Manford putting all this together so that really, really, none of them have done their job. Right, right, right. That that this would be the bar, lowering the bar. But if you’re going to lower the lower the prices, um, but if you’re going to lower the bar, at least I don’t know, dude. I’m not going to look back on this year, think it’s any great thing if they don’t play in the ALCS somehow and finagle their way into that by being that miracle team. But the only way you can be that miracle team is to be in the tournament. And I think when we’re desperately seeking a playoff berth like the Ravens last year on a loop field goal, which went the wrong way this week, like you could piss on them all you want, and Harbaugh still might have gotten fired, and Tom might have gotten fired. But like playing that playoff game, I mean, that’s a brass ring for every organization. That I’m not look, I’m not playing the role of like I’m Rob Long and I work for the team, or like any. I’m just being honest. Like we haven’t had a lot of August around here, and it makes me sound Pollyanna. Makes you sound like the tough guy in the thing here. With they’re not very good. They’re not. But like, just from a pure baseball standpoint, if you’re going to get out of the ballpark in a nice night in late August, and they have a chance, I don’t know. They’ve rigged the system to make it more palatable. I mean, that’s really this is what you didn’t like about them watering down October a little bit.

Luke Jones 9:26
Yeah, I mean, I that this this scenario is exactly why I didn’t like that a few years back. And as much as you make the argument for well, it gives all these teams more of a chance. Yes, it does, but at the same time, it can it can also lead to not feeling the same degree of incentive to go for it. I mean, look at the Orioles, for example, how they operated. And you know, unlike a lot of people, I didn’t have nearly as much of a problem with how Mike Elias proceeded at the trade deadline, this specific trade deadline, and specifically trading Adley Rutschman. But the line of thinking is let’s sell off depreciation depreciating assets or expiring assets. In the case of Taylor Ward, you know, in Ruchman’s case, the clock’s ticking, and you’re dude. Let’s

Nestor Aparicio 10:15
talk for weeks. You, me, Alan. We talked for weeks about all those deals, and and in the aftermath, I don’t think I was mad that they sold the season off, not that they sold Rutchman off, right? Like, right. Although that made sense, but my

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Luke Jones 10:27
point, but my point that I’m trying to make in saying that is, you look at that and say the threshold for the third wild card spot is so low that we Michaelias can sit there, and as much as it sounded patronizing to hear him say it out loud, you can sit there with Sigmidell and all of your lieutenants in the front office and say, you know what? There’s still a path here for us to even get to get in, even with making these subtractions that we’ve made, because while Adley Rutschman’s hurt and frankly hasn’t been very good for the better part of two years compared to what he had been before that, and Taylor Ward’s not hitting for any power, and he’s not a good fielder out in left field. And yeah, he draws some walks, but he’s not doing much besides that. And Dean Kramer, well, we’ve got Bassett coming back, and Kramer’s been bad anyway. Probably a non-tender candidate in the winter, and in the case of Tyler Wells, that’s the one where you say, “All right, we’re subtracting Tyler Wells. I’ll give you that one. That hurts. At the same time, if we don’t have a ton of conviction that he’s going to sustain this and be this kind of guy next year, let’s bring Michael Forret back to to our Foret back to our farm system. But as someone who’s close to being major league ready as a starting pitcher, well, too,

Nestor Aparicio 11:44
when Elias hugs his prospects too long, we get pissy about it. If he gives up on Wells, that I mean, they’ve examined the arm, they’ve seen him in and in and out, they’ve had him available, not available, they’ve had him as a starter and a leaver. Like, like I, I’ll hear all of that, right? Like, so when I I can’t be they have so much more information right. So there is a point where like they have not just what Sid Thrift have, which is I’ve been watching ball my whole life. My gut instincts are you know I’ve seen you you know I I think this the the the measurements and the science and all of that that goes into all of these guys’ decisions and the money and the Sigma Ideal saying, “Well, we’re a 9% chance to be a playoff team with Adley Rutschman, and we’re a seven and a half percent without him. What difference does it make other than $30 million that we could pull back in and buy a pitcher in the off season or buy an outfielder, which you were talking about the other day, and dude, I’m with you. I look at the lineups, and I don’t know the first names of some of these guys. Some of these guys weren’t here a week ago, three weeks ago, a month ago. They didn’t. They weren’t in our spring training radar that we talked about them the way we talked about Taylor Ward or or Tyler Wells or any of these other names, but as constructed right now, when Alonzo’s bashing around and Holiday starts to look like an emerging young player, and Tyler O’Neill’s hitting his weight when given the opportunity, and Colton Cowser can hit one once in a while, and they’re not kicking the ball around like the bad news bears every night, and they’re getting decent pitching. I don’t know three out of five times, four out of five times, not one or two. Now I’ll give you the Brandon Young thing, and if they stumble here against the Yankees, but but they’re the Yankees. But look, man, I’m having Joel Poili on, and he’s filling my phone up over the weekend, saying I’m kissing the Orioles’ ass too much, and I believe too much in them, and then they go win three games in a row, and I have to book them on the show, and then they might lose four games in a row because you and you’ll be out there witnessing it. If I go Wednesday, they’ll lose, but or it’ll just be 150 degrees, or Curio can’t give her tickets away. But nonetheless, I’m just saying, like, I want to believe, dude, like, and I’m in August, and I’m believing enough to watch to think like I just watched them win three games in a row and take a lead three times on Monday night, you know, into sweeping the best team in the American League and thinking like, well, they go on a little bit of a run, and it’s Pete Alonso and it’s Gunnar Henderson and it’s Jackson Holiday. Those are all the cats we talked about back in February. Oh, we got a healthy Bradish and a healthy Rodgers, and here comes Bassett back to do something, which I believed in more than probably any of the rest of this was believing Bassett was going to take on innings this year as well as Ethlin. So I mean, you know, these guys-I can’t remember their names because they haven’t pitched in so long, and they haven’t been a factor. When Young has been a factor and has been a big part of this, and so I’m not down on him. I’m thinking like this next six days, if they can play the way they did over the weekend a little bit and pick that up and get some home pepper with mr. Splat. And mr. Everything, and the bird bath, and the hot dog race, and get the bird on the dug. I mean, I’m yeah. Play. Thank God, I’m a country, but I’m I’m serious.

Nestor Aparicio 15:09
The Yankees, they’re not beating up on the Tigers or the Twins here. It’s effing Yankees, and they’re big games. Let me let me have a moment. I’ve owned the place 35 years, and I don’t know, dude. Go. There haven’t been many of these where a ticket to this kind of game would have been something my dad would have been excited about going to. That’s all. Playoff baseball in August. Good for us.

Luke Jones 15:30
It’s fine. Yeah. Yeah. I mean, look. You just laid out a lot, a lot of what the path is. I’ll also bring up Samuel Basayo is probably going to be back this week. You know, give me some

Nestor Aparicio 15:41
more good news. Let’s go, come on.

Luke Jones 15:43
So you have Basio, you have, you know, Ryan Helsley and Felix Bautista could be back in some capacity, regardless of how it looks in September. Blaze Alexander is going to be back. Now I’ll say this: Encarnacion Strand continues to do a heck of a job for them. You know, I mean, he’s not a perfect player by any means, but go look at his numbers since they called him up. I mean, well, I

Nestor Aparicio 16:05
saw Matteo, and I thought like they could have Matteo, but they went in this direction. And to your point, from that Fenway Park monster stuff that was going on, which now feels like about a month ago, it it has felt like, all right, that they don’t have a minus there. They don’t have what Kobe Mayo was on his worst days early on, right? Well,

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Luke Jones 16:23
think about it. I mean, you you look at what Blaze Alexander was doing for them, and since Encarnacion Strand has arrived, and he’s got an 854 OPS, he’s hit six home runs. When has their third base of productivity been over 120 games? I mean, it’s been at times good. No, I mean the this the the batting line. You know, I mean, 240 18 home runs, and yeah, you know what I mean. Like, what are you getting out of that position? Is what my out of the five guys that have played the position, literally, right? But I think the point I’m trying to make is Blaze Alexander had really stabilized that from a standpoint of the way he had hit from early May on, and the way he played defense in a way that Kobe Mayo cannot play defense at third base specifically, and when he goes down right at the All Star break, you’re saying, “Oh no! I mean, what? Back to Mayo playing there seven days a week, and you know he’s played there some. The defense is what it is, right? He has some stretches where it doesn’t look so bad, and then other stretches where you say, “Okay, that that’s that’s the guy that they moved to first base last year, right? So, and right now he’s playing first base because Alonzo has a sore calf. And I thought he

Nestor Aparicio 17:29
made a nice play at first base on Gun Henderson on that that Dipsy dude double play that went high, right? I mean, what a

Luke Jones 17:35
great what a great double play that was. But but and Carnacion Strengths done a nice job. I guess the point I’m trying to make, you know, because as I was talking about guys coming back, Blaze Alexander is going to be back, but it’s a hand fracture, right? Is he going to be the same guy when he comes back in the same way we talked about Holliday, or go back to Jordan Westberg a couple years ago when he came back in mid-September from a broken hand? That’s tough, and I love Blaze Alexander as a player, but a lot of his offensive profile was screaming it’s going to regress at some point here. There’s going to be some regression to the mean because he had a batting average for balls on play or balls in play right around 400. That’s my point. My point

Nestor Aparicio 18:14
is if Blaze Alexander plays 162 for you, it’s not very good. But if Blaze Alexander plays 20 games, which he probably did, or 30, maybe a little more than that. I played way more

Luke Jones 18:24
than that

Nestor Aparicio 18:25
at third base. Okay, okay. I mean, come their

Luke Jones 18:27
regular third base. I understand, but

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Nestor Aparicio 18:28
Mayo played the first 30 or whatever, right? So whatever those numbers are, Mayo would really weigh it down. Alexander would weigh it up in the batting average, sort of getting on base doubles thing. And now there have been some home runs. I would think over the course of this, I would look at it and say it would look more Mike Paliarullo than looking more like you know Todd Cruz. You know, it didn’t didn’t look 199 six home runs across the line. It’s probably going to look more 230s with you know mid-teens power, and out of a position where Westberg was supposed to provide a lot more than that. That, you know, I mean, and they didn’t spend money, right? And you know, we were talking about things they could have done that would have been more foundational at that position through the trading deadline, or to say, hey, we need to acquire, and that’s something we’re going to be looking at at the off season. And we’re going to get back in this thing. We need to do this. They they bubblegummed and rubber band that together a little bit more because they had so much invested in these pitchers and so much invested. I think in bottom line, we’re going to spend money on Boz. We’re going to spend money on Bradish. We’re they’re locking down those things that thinking about chasing a third baseman in May. To to both of our points, they’re playing in a playoff position with what they’ve got. Elias has done a good job since I fired him back in May. We’ll see. Again, this is.

Luke Jones 20:00
Sub 500 baseball. Like, let’s not lower the bar to just say they’ve done a good job. This this is a substandard product still. In a year where there is enough substandard that’s allowed it to be standard, does that make sense? You know what I mean? Like, all right. So if

Nestor Aparicio 20:13
they start the season over again and it’s opening day today and the Yankees are in town, pretend with me. Play play. Hold my hand. Five weeks a season, right? I mean, so we got five and a half, six weeks. Yeah. How many games? 4030.

Luke Jones 20:25
Right, right around that. Yeah.

Nestor Aparicio 20:26
Okay. So if I,

Luke Jones 20:28
it’s they’re 61 and 64. So all right,

Nestor Aparicio 20:30
let’s let’s gage the tournament as it is with 37 schedule is home and away weather inside out. Who’s healthy now? Where Scouble is and where he isn’t. Where Adley Rutschman is and where he like all of that like really gaging it where Pete Alonso is where Gunnar Henderson feels like he might be where Jackson Holiday’s wrist is not where and and even thinking Basayo might get normalized here and not be hurt or whatever to your point where Blaze Alexander let’s say he’s going to be hurt okay for now or not a difference maker, but get three hits in late September and will them into the playoffs because as an 83 win team or whatever. Because I think that somebody will emerge as 83 win. I mean that if that’s my target, that all I got to do is play four games over 500 or five games over 500 for the next five weeks. I guess what I’m saying is, if we start this conversation all over again, and it’s okay, Dan, it’s a five-week tournament. I can make a hell of a case for them playing a couple of games in October and having a role because, well, Gunner’s going to wake up at some point, be Gunner, right? And he’s looked pretty good lately here in spring training. And Pete Alonso is a hell of a leader, and he’s paid a lot, and he’s like in form. And Jackson Holiday’s no longer injured and young, and looked like a little leaguer. He’s looking like he’s coming. What are the next 120 to 150 at bats look like for this group, including Encarnacion, the guys that are really going to take these at bats? And what do our next 40 innings look like from from Bradish and from

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Luke Jones 22:02
I think those are the big question marks. Okay, so I’m because you’re I’m

Nestor Aparicio 22:05
literally giving this to you not to judge the Twins or any of these other moving parts, but can this team play up to its potential? And what is its potential with a catcher? We don’t know yet. Ozo, whatever these things are, but to say like it’s not crazy with 40 games left, that somehow they could go 24 and 14. You know what I mean? Something like

Luke Jones 22:33
they haven’t done that all year.

Nestor Aparicio 22:34
Okay,

Luke Jones 22:34
I mean that that that would just be my. I hear what you’re saying, but we were saying that same thing in late April. We were saying that’s you could make the same argument in May. You could make the same argument in June. You could make July. They did it. I will give them credit. They had a really good July.

Nestor Aparicio 22:48
But I didn’t have any feeling that Gunnar Henderson was waking up, and I didn’t really believe in the pitching then because it was early, and maybe I believe in Brandon Young too much right now. Well, I mean, don’t. I’m not trying to be point counterpoint or be the optimist, but I’m. I mean, I’m. You can be the optimist. I’m trying to be optimistic when it’s August and they really have a chance because it’s not boujohn. I’ve had to sit here and pedal big shots for years. I

Luke Jones 23:11
mean, they haven’t been. I mean, we’re talking about a team that hasn’t been up at 500 since May 1st. I mean, that that’s what I keep coming back to.

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Nestor Aparicio 23:20
Not trying to make their case for a good team. I’m trying to make a case that they can play good baseball for a week or two.

Luke Jones 23:26
They’ve done that, but here’s the problem: every time they do that all year long, they they then fall back to exactly where they were before the stretch. There’s no look. There’s not winning seven in a row like they did in July, and then oh, on top of that, then to build on that, they won five of their next six series, right? Dude, people

Nestor Aparicio 23:50
bet on this all day, right? I mean, I wouldn’t bet on them. Well, and that’s and that’s

Luke Jones 23:55
I guess that’s the point I’m trying to make here. That like, look, I can go through. They had their 10 and four stretch in late May into early June, and then after that, what I think they dropped six of their next seven series right after that. They had the Dodgers series back in June, right? A series they should have swept. So you’re making a case to bet

Nestor Aparicio 24:16
against them just in general. I’m just I’m just telling you

Luke Jones 24:19
what what they’ve been all year. Well, after the Dodgers series, they immediately lose a series to the Angels, who are the worst. You know, have been the worst team in the American League or second worst all year long, and then they lost. I think it was two of their next three series after that. Their seven-game winning streak. They lost three of the next four series leading into the trade deadline. I mean, this is what they did over the weekend was very impressive, right? They they beat the Rays three out of four. They had a chance to sweep them, you know, disappointing Monday night. But I I also not going to sit here and say I was expecting them to win every game the rest of the way, right? We’re let’s not be insane about this, but. My question is, how are they going to follow that up now? Because the history of this team in 2026 tells me that they’re they’re setting up for a two and four home stand right now, which will not crush their chances, but they’ll be back to five games under 500 at that point, and someone else will be leading the wild card race at that point in time, so I I want to see them sustain. They haven’t sustained anything all year long. Even their July, you kind of look at it. They had this. It’s July started out poorly for them actually. Then they win seven in a row, wrapped around the All Star break, and then after after that, you know, it’s it’s fine, but nothing to write home about immediately after the All Star break, right? In fact, what I even said it-they lost three of their next four series after that. So they’ve got to sustain at some point. I guess I just sound kind of cranky here, just because can you get the 500? I mean, I brought this up, and I’ll bring it up because it was Monday night. It was the fifth time since early June they’ve been at two under with a chance to go to one under. And what have they done the the previous four times when they were in that spot where they’re at two games under 500? june 5 was the first time that I’m talking about here. They lost four in a row when when they had that chance. July 19th, they got to two under. They lost three of their next four. July 31st, they got to two under. They lost their next two. August 5th, they got to two under. They lost three in a row. So they lost on Monday night. Not the end of the world, but you need to go home and turn the page quickly and play good baseball and win a series against the Yankees and win a series against the Rays. If you can’t do that, then what are we talking about here? Then we’re just like, okay, waiting for other teams to lose because that’s really what it is. I mean, think about it. They moved into this spot where on Sunday at the end of business they occupied the third wild card spot. Yet, go look at their last 10. They’re five and five. Like they, they, they had a good series, but it’s not as though they’ve gotten red hot as a team collectively, right? It’s not like they’ve they’ve won 10 of 13. So I’m waiting for that because if they can do that, it very well could be enough, right? That could be enough, but I just haven’t seen a team that’s able to sustain, right? Well, they

Nestor Aparicio 27:22
can’t go in the hole here and go two and four this week at home, right? I mean, like that, it can’t go that direction. But if it does, it’s not over. But and then they win five next week. But it just,

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Luke Jones 27:34
but it just, it speaks to they haven’t been able to do that. So, like, what you’re laying out as far as like you look at the final 37 games or 61 and 64. That’s, you know, that’s 125 games. So they have 37 games left. Look, they go. So I said 24 and 1423, and 14. Yeah, I mean, they haven’t really done that all year, though. 21 and 1621, and

Nestor Aparicio 28:02
16 makes them an 83 win team. I think is that right? 21

Luke Jones 28:07
and 16. Well, 20 that that would make them 82 and 8082.

Nestor Aparicio 28:11
and 80.

Speaker 1 28:12
Okay. So so maybe that’s dude.

Nestor Aparicio 28:14
Let’s play magic. Let’s play magic number. Then they need to win 22 or 23 or 24 games here. Yeah. You know, the more they the more like that the better their chances are. Sure,

Luke Jones 28:24
but but I I need to see them sustained. Like you come home and and you lose two series and like I’m not even gonna say zero and six. I mean I will say on the flip side, and this is something I probably haven’t said enough about them to their credit. They really haven’t had prolonged stretches of horrid baseball either, right? Like last year’s team. Think about it. They they ended up being a 75 and 87 team. You know that was their final record. You know, let me double check that as I’m just reciting that off the top of my head. Yeah, 75 and 87. And what was that all about? It was really about April, late April into early May. They were five

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Nestor Aparicio 29:04
and 16 or something. They were really. It was. It was

Luke Jones 29:06
really, really awful for about three and a half weeks, and that just buried them. Right? They fell all the way to eight. Yeah, they were what 18 and no, no, they were. I’m trying to think what their record was through 50 games. They’re 18 games under 500, but the point is, to their credit, as much as I’ve kind of I’ve criticized them for their peaks being very fleeting, their valleys have also been that way, right? I mean, let’s face it. Let’s call spade a spade. Since early May, they’ve been between nine and two games under 500, they haven’t dropped back so badly in this year, where there’s only four decent, you know, not even four, really three decent teams in the American League right now. But they haven’t fallen so hard where you say, “All right, you’re just not going to recover, because that’s what they did last year. Now.

Nestor Aparicio 30:00
1017 or 16 and got 15 and 30 begat 21 and 36 on may 31. So they were 15 under by the end of May. They were five under at the beginning of May, and at the end of July they were 10 under, then nine under, then 15 under, then ended 12 under. So month by month by month, yeah. But but it was really late April into early or into the third week of May where they just completely buried themselves. It’s funny that I remembered it collapsing earlier than it actually did. The losses really happened from may 3 through may 24, if they won three games,

Luke Jones 30:43
yeah, they were absolutely so. One thing about this team, and and this is where I will give them some credit, they’re seven and six since the trade deadline. Look, that’s nothing to write home about, but at the same time, knowing what the trade deadline was, it would have been easy for them to just check out mentally. I mean, it really would have been because I mean, their general manager signaled to them, “I don’t believe in you. Well, there’s no reason

Nestor Aparicio 31:08
to check out now. So even I’m checked in.

Luke Jones 31:10
Sure. So, so we see. But that said, I’m also not going to, I’m not going to look at one series and say, okay, that that this this is who they are now, when we have four months of evidence suggesting, brace yourself for an underlying, and here come the

Nestor Aparicio 31:27
Yankees, and I go back to okay, it’s opening day, the Yankees are in town. Can they win two out of three here? Can they compete? Yes. What version of the Yankees are we getting with the Stantons and the judges and all the money that they have into these players and their various avail ability to be available in in August. What are we going to get from the Yankees here, Luke?

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Luke Jones 31:49
Well, I think what’s interesting. First of all, Carlos Rodon’s going to start. He’s coming off the IL. Is going to start the opener. So, what does he look like? It’s a lefty when he’s at his best. He’s really really tough, but he’s coming off the IL in the same way that McClanahan, the Orioles had no problem against him on Monday night, so you have that factor. I mean, the Yankees. I mean, let’s face it, Judge has been gone for a long time now. I mean, there’s still some question whether he’s really going to come back, and if he does, what’s it going to look like? I mean, a rib cage issue for a hitter, and not just a hitter, but a hitter like Aaron Judge who swings with the torque that he does. I mean, that’s a big question. But that’s

Nestor Aparicio 32:27
15 to 17 at bats. You don’t have to worry about the next three days,

Luke Jones 32:30
and that’s a that that would be like them saying we don’t have to worry about Ruchman anymore. Well, we might have to worry about Basayo, right? Not now, but like I I just keep looking at it and say the Yankees aren’t the Yankees if they don’t have their $30 million player, they’re they’re they’re they’re lessened for me. But here’s the difference: they pitch. I mean, they they have the they’ve allowed the fewest runs in the American League. Their offense has absolutely been an issue. It’s been a major issue for them for weeks now. You know, go back to the start of the summer when you know when when Judge exits the lineup. I mean, look at their numbers. They’ve been one of the worst offenses. You know, they’ve been a bottom. I’m I’m reciting this off the top of my head, so I don’t want to. But it’s been bottom tier offensively for them for quite a while. But they pitch at a really high level. So the Orioles

Nestor Aparicio 33:17
see them in October for three games. By the by, well,

Luke Jones 33:21
is Judge there? Is Stanton there? Right? I mean, like, who knows? Right? I mean, it’s, but they’ve they’ve got frontline pitching, right? I mean, they’ve they’ve got really good pitching, and you know, I’ll be interested to see what they do with their rotation because Will Warren was originally scheduled for Tuesday night, but you know, the the reports have already been out that Rodone’s going to come off the IL, but they’re scheduled to see Max Freed. They’re scheduled to see Garrett Cole unless they push those guys back. So it’s not going to be easy. I mean, it’s that simple. On the flip side, what does Shane Boz look like? Right, that last start in Minnesota that that was not that was a little disconcerting, you know, because he even said he didn’t feel great. Not saying like, oh, he’s got an arm injury, but this is where, because you mentioned Brandon Young, and I, I kind of, you know, I, I didn’t interject, but I made a a comment at the time. This is where, for me, as we’re talking about this team and whatever its chances are down the stretch, and they’ve got a chance, you know, I, I can continue to beat them up for being sub 500 as much as I want. They absolutely have a chance because, well, we see someone is going to go out of that group. Someone will make the playoffs out of that group of six teams right now, separated by one game, and all of them are under 500. But this is where I do look at someone like Brandon Young. He’s already thrown 117 innings this year. Go look at his career workload per per season. Kyle Bradish. I mean, I’ve been talking about that since spring training in terms of if he has a full season, if he stays healthy, if he does everything you want him to do. How comfortable are you going to be with his workload in contrast to how little? He threw over the last couple years, and

Nestor Aparicio 35:02
dude, we talked about him being brittle before he broke the first time or the second time. It was-it’s always like how much torque, how much this, how many innings. I mean, we measure this like you measure drops in a blicker bottle. It’s crazy.

Luke Jones 35:16
It’s tough. And and look, I’m not when I say that. That is not me saying I’m predicting they’re all going to break down. I’m not saying that, but we have to be mindful of workload. And if you’re an organization, if you’re a coaching staff, if you’re a front office, if you’re an analytics department, you’ve got to be looking at all the biomechanical data, everything that tells you that okay, Shane Boz had a bad start in Minnesota, you know. He told us, you know, maybe maybe had some pizza the night before that didn’t agree with him, and he just wasn’t, you know, just didn’t feel himself. You know, if it’s that, that’s fine. But at the same time, you know, you want to keep these guys healthy, and the last thing I want to do, and I and I will say this is, I’m not jeop if I’m starting to see red flags and you know your proverbial danger zone kind of blinking when it comes to some of these guys with what you know all the data you have on them, I’m not pushing them to compromise and jeopardize them big picture wise because you’ve got a chance to sneak into the third wild card spot with a 82 and 80 record, you know I’m not doing it arbitrarily. Like I’m not just shutting them down for the sake of shutting them down. I’m saying if suddenly you start to see some red flags big time, like right now, what’s happening with Paul Skeens with the Pirates, right? His velo’s down. You know you even look at his mechanics; they don’t look that like he just hasn’t been the same. It’s late

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Nestor Aparicio 36:40
August, and not everybody’s Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer or Jack Morris. You

Luke Jones 36:45
can’t just say, “Oh, we’re not shutting them down because we’ve got four weeks to go. If if you’re seeing data and evidence that suggests we have some concerns about this guy, the last thing you want to do is redline these guys. You know, think about a car. You know, you’re not stepping on the gas harder. You got to ease up. Now that doesn’t mean that necessarily you just shut them down entirely. But I don’t know. With Brandon Young having the the outing he just had, and you know, you look at him his last few times, even his last time out, he got through six innings, but that was a grinded out, not overly impressive stuff, kind of outing from him. You might just need to let your foot off the gas a little bit on him. It might be, you know, 80 pitches might kind of be like we we his next couple starts we’re not going to push him to 100 because we’re not loving what we’re seeing. That’s what I’m talking about. We just have to be mindful of that, especially in the case of Kyle Bradish, who you have long term now, Shane Boz, who you have long term, Brandon Young, who you have years of club control, and I’ve said to you at a couple different points, I still think he probably profiles best as the new Dean Kramer, and I mean that as a compliment. Like I don’t think Brandon Young, I don’t truly believe Brandon Young is going to be a top half of the rotation starter moving forward. Even though he’s been, you know, you could make an argument that he should get most valuable Oriole votes. That’s how good he’s been this year and how important he’s been. But you know, you look at the profile in terms of the velocity, the swing and miss, all of that stuff, and I look at him still probably as a guy that still profiles best as a number four, number five starter, which is what Dean Kramer was for most of his Orioles run. You know, so I don’t say that as a knock on him. I say that as a compliment that I think he’s going to be a solid, valuable part of their rotation for the next three, four years. You hope, right? We’ll see. He’s obviously that’s going to depend on health and the other pitchers they have in their system now. As I’ve said to you, they’re much more pitching centric in their farm system right now. But you know, you do have to be mindful of him. I mean, Rodgers is another guy. Like, look at his workload. What’s that going to look like the rest of the way? I’m just throwing it out there. If you’re, if we’re laying out reasons for or against the Orioles’ chances, I do look at their starting rotation and just say, you’ve got to at least be mindful of the workload for some of these guys, and and that’s all. That’s all. That’s all. I’m not saying this is not Luke Jones is not saying shut down Kyle Bradish right now. No, no, he might be fine, but you’ve got to monitor everything, and you can’t just turn a blind eye to it. If if you see a guy that’s you know like for example Bradish, his last start, like he he pitched well enough, like at the same time of late he’s not getting quite as much swing and miss. Now in a start or two, that’s you know you can chalk that up to just a small sample, but if you start to see, you know, this stuff’s not as crisp. Seems to fatigue a little more as he gets into the I don’t know the fifth inning, more so than maybe he did in May or June. You know that that’s where you look at it and say, I probably need to take our foot off the gas at least a little bit. You know, and I said to you at the time, I mean, go look at how they handle. Bradish right around the All Star break. Remember, they pushed them back coming out of the break,

Nestor Aparicio 40:03
as you predicted. I

Luke Jones 40:04
said that they would probably do something like that. I could see them needing to do that again at some point here over the last five weeks. Now, again, I don’t. I’m not saying to arbitrarily do that. If your South

Nestor Aparicio 40:18
Star gets something decent out of Kade Povich, or this is where Bassett comes in, or you do a bullpen game, or something like that. Yeah, I mean, as long as you get innings that don’t look like what Cano looked like or Garcia on his worst day, and you know, you mentioned this cavalry of Kittridge and Batiste and whatever. I I don’t count on any of that. Yeah, let me get rich health. Excuse me. Oh

Luke Jones 40:39
yeah, like let me be clear. When I mention those two guys, that is very much in the category of if if it looks good in September and they’re healthy and you want to trot them out there and see what it looks like, sure. But yeah, you’re not betting on that, of course. Especially, I mean, Felix Batista. They need to be very very careful with him. I mean, this is a a guy that’s had major elbow and major shoulder surgery in the last three years, so you got to be really careful with him. But, but all that being said, do they have a shot? Of course they do, right? I’m not, I’m not. The longer they hang in this, and the longer we think they’re going to hang in this, the more real it gets, and the more competitive it gets, that that Pete Alonso pepper in the dugout and that thing starts to catch on a little bit. That’s all I’m saying. That they’re home, and the Yankees

Nestor Aparicio 41:30
are here, and the Rays are here, and piss on everything that ever happened before in the last 33 years, and Peter Anderson, like all that. If they win five ball games this week by hook or crook, by here or there, by a home run here, somebody gets hot. Gunner Henderson, you know, hits 529 for the next week. Like literally, that sort of thing that baseball is. And you said baseball, anything can happen. Yeah, they’re not. They’re not reaching with six teams where they’re four games back next week. They might be, you know what I mean, no doubt. Like this, they can’t go to the bottom. They can’t go one and five this week, right? I mean, I

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Luke Jones 42:06
mean, if they go five and one, maybe they’re three games up for yeah. Well, then it

Nestor Aparicio 42:10
gets very peppery. Then of course

Nestor Aparicio 42:13
every inning matters, and every you know, Brad, all the things you just said about when we’re going to manage, dude. I need to win tonight. I need to win tonight.

Luke Jones 42:23
I’m not compromising Kyle Bradish to do that. If I keep saying, I hear if there are warning signs, I’m not arbitrarily shutting anyone down. Let me be very clear about that. I’m just saying. But in the heat of the game, in

Nestor Aparicio 42:35
the sixth inning, and it’s three-two, and you, of course, right, and you score. But if he looks tired? december 10, right? Yeah. This is where you hope all these guys. I don’t want to play tough guy here, or you know, or my gym coach, but you know, is where you guys got to reach down for a little extra. Sure. Yeah, yeah, you know, whatever that is, right within

Luke Jones 42:54
within the realm of healthy competition, no doubt. I’ll leave you with this.

Speaker 2 42:57
All right,

8

Luke Jones 42:58
five and five, three and seven, three and seven, seven and three, four and six, five and five. Oh, sorry, I completely messed this. I was looking at I I had runs allowed and I messed this up. So let me restart that. I apologize on that. These are the wild card contenders in their last 10, five and five the Baltimore Orioles four and six the Texas Rangers five and five the Detroit Tigers four and six Minnesota Toronto seven and three back from the dead suddenly Cleveland three and seven Guardians have been awful since the All Star break I mean it’s I don’t know if they’re just cooked or they’re gonna have a run, but and even Seattle at seven games under 500 after a three and seven stretch, they’re still hanging around at two games back. That right there is why the Orioles have a chance. Take your pick. Who do you love in that group? Detroit might be the team that you know run differential wise and the way they played since May, but they traded Scoubol and Mize at the all at the trade deadline. Toronto is a defending AL champion. They sold at least partially at the trade deadline. Rest of these teams, I’m not going to sit here make an argument for anyone else over the Orioles. At the same time, I still have a tough time making an argument for the Orioles over any of those other teams as well. Roll the ball out there and see what’s going to happen, right? I mean, but I will say, it’s fun. It sure beats being 30 games under 500 right now, and well, we we wouldn’t even be having this conversation. We’d be talking about the Ravens’ joint practices in Minnesota this week.

Nestor Aparicio 44:46
Well, if Mel Allen were here, he’d end this with the Yankees in town by saying, “How about that? He’s Luke. I’m Nestor. We’re WNSTA. I’m 1570 Towson, Baltimore. Enjoy the ball games. We’ll be a fishmonger’s daughter on Wednesday. Brought to you by our friends at the Maryland Lottery, GBMC and Farnin and Dermer, and I don’t know. I’m easing into this bowling shirt. Stay with