The AFC North isn’t looking like the cakewalk it was last season for the Ravens.
After Baltimore won the division by a whopping six games and no other team was above .500 in 2019, the rest of the AFC North is 7-3-1 with Pittsburgh in first place through the first quarter of the season. The Ravens now host Cincinnati, who is coming off its first victory of the season and has lost two games by a combined eight points. In other words, the Bengals have easily looked better than last season when their first win didn’t come until after Thanksgiving.
It’s time to go on the record as these division foes collide for the 49th time in the all-time regular-season series with the Ravens leading 25-23 and enjoying a 16-8 advantage at home. Baltimore is 12-12 against the Bengals under John Harbaugh and has won three straight in the series.
Below are five predictions for Sunday:
1. Gus Edwards will set season highs in carries and rushing yards by a Baltimore running back. Lamar Jackson looked healthy at Friday’s workout, but the star quarterback missing two practices isn’t ideal for a passing game that’s yet to find the same efficiency as last year. The Bengals have given up 158.5 rushing yards per game and rank 21st in Football Outsiders’ run defense efficiency metric, but they will welcome back eight-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Geno Atkins. Edwards is averaging 6.2 yards per rushing attempt despite carrying the ball no more than 10 times in a game and logging no runs longer than 24 yards. It’s time for offensive coordinator Greg Roman to gas up and hop on the “Gus Bus.”
2. Marlon Humphrey will hold Cincinnati slot receiver Tyler Boyd under 50 receiving yards. Seven-time Pro Bowl receiver A.J. Green is back after missing all of 2019 and has long tormented the Ravens, but Boyd has been one of the league’s best receivers thus far with 28 catches for 320 yards, much of that coming from the slot. Baltimore will trust Humphrey to rip away rookie quarterback Joe Burrow’s security blanket, and the All-Pro cornerback should be up to the challenge. Taking away the short-to-intermediate middle will force Burrow to take more chances — and likely make more mistakes.
3. Giovani Bernard and Tee Higgins will catch touchdowns for the Bengals. A blitz-heavy defense that’s been stingy against the run tends to be vulnerable against screens and passes out of the backfield with opposing running backs piling up up nearly 200 receiving yards against the Ravens over the last two weeks. Joe Mixon is a capable receiver as the feature back, but Bernard has registered at least 30 receptions in each of his first seven NFL seasons. The 6-foot-4 Higgins has shown growth every week and is a tricky matchup against third-year cornerback Anthony Averett in sub packages.
4. Mark Andrews will go over 75 receiving yards with a touchdown. Having predicted a 1,000-yard season for the 2019 Pro Bowl selection, I’ve been surprised to see Andrews log no more than 58 receiving yards in a game so far. However, he is coming off a two-touchdown game against Washington and had three drops on plays that were there to be made against Kansas City. In other words, defenses haven’t suddenly figured out how to contain the 6-foot-5, 256-pound target. Andrews caught 12 passes for 152 yards and two touchdowns against the Bengals last year, and he should feast again Sunday.
5. Jackson will get the best of Burrow in their first meeting for a 27-17 win for the Ravens. I nearly made it through the entire week without mentioning the reigning NFL MVP being a month younger than the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner and first overall pick of the 2020 draft, speaking again to how remarkable Jackson’s success has been. But Burrow is looking like the real deal with three straight 300-yard passing games despite an offensive line that’s been poor in pass protection. The Ravens’ ability to consistently get to him will be key in determining how close this game will be as extra blitzers mean fewer defenders in coverage. With that in mind, Baltimore ranks second in the league in blitz percentage and just 19th in pressure percentage, according to Pro Football Reference. Burrow should make enough plays to keep this game interesting — a near-empty M&T Bank Stadium helps — but Jackson and the Ravens will keep Cincinnati a step or two behind. I’m reminded that many were too quick to anoint Baker Mayfield the savior in Cleveland, but the game isn’t looking too big for Burrow despite clear deficiencies along his offensive line, which should excite head coach Zac Taylor and the Bengals. This one will again lack style points for Baltimore, but that’s to be expected with Jackson navigating a rough week.
