Kansas City on Sunday. “We got the numbers. We know what we are doing and that was the plan.”
That was what Billy Beane quietly was saying to no one who would listen in Major League Baseball 20 years ago and Moneyball has since been made into books, movies and sports lore. (And the pesky Oakland Athletics are once again playing into late September and will probably be playing another October play-in game again next Wednesday! And so goes your proof…)
At some point, perhaps I will write a Purple Reign 3 and it will all be told.
In the meantime, don’t expect the Ravens or Eric DeCosta or John Harbaugh or any of the nerds in Owings Mills to pull me or anyone else aside to explain what the hell they’re doing on 4th down.
They have a book for that.
And they’re not sharing it! (Even though you can read pieces like this gem on The Ringer to take a deeper dive).
And probably because Bill Belichick harbors murderers, signs psychopaths and puts spies into trees on practice fields in the NFL in an effort to have an edge, the Ravens rightfully consider it proprietary strategy best left unknown.
If you read the fantastic book on how the Astros were built and now how the Orioles are being built, Astroball delivers some wisdom on blackjack, Sig Mejdal and what “feels” right at the table when you draw a 16 or a 17 and decide to hit or stay.
Are you playing that hand with your heart or “by the book” of science and probability?
Coach Harbaugh might also ask you if you are going to play scared and stick on 12 every time because a face card will bust you?
There’s a book that is a hundred years old on what the odds in the history of blackjack dictate is your best (and only) strategy on every hand. It’s a science system that no one – except a fool – would question.
When you draw 21, you feel like a genius. When you bust out, you wish you’d have let that dealer draw the bust card.
John Harbaugh and the Ravens are taking a growth mindset in the math of football.
Your heart says punt but the book says give Lamar a chance to get you three feet or even three yards anywhere on the field.
All aboard the #RiverboatHarbaugh.
Who wants to gamble on 4th down with the game on the line in January?
Well, you have to roll the bones in September to get there…
