Sunday marked one year since the Orioles fired 2023 AL Manager of the Year Brandon Hyde.
In the same way it was difficult to fathom how much had gone south from the previous May when Baltimore was vying for the best record in baseball and coming off its first 100-plus-win season in more than 40 years, one hoped the Orioles would be in a much different place a year later, especially after a manager reset and the most aggressive offseason of the Mike Elias era.
But what has truly gotten better? What’s sparking meaningful optimism rather than blind hope?
No, the Orioles aren’t the inexplicable dumpster fire they were last May when they were on track to lose 110 games at their worst point. But a 90-loss pace under new manager Craig Albernaz is hardly the goal and actually worse than how they fared playing out the string under interim manager Tony Mansolino (60-59) last year. With the Orioles sporting the third-worst run differential in the American League and trailing first-place Tampa Bay by 10 games entering their three-game set in St. Petersburg this week, the most compelling argument for their playoff aspirations is the wide-spread mediocrity of the wild-card race.
Their longest winning streak of the season is three games, and that occurred more than a month ago. Baltimore has won back-to-back series once all year, and that too happened in early April. Every time the Orioles win a game or a series in some kind of feel-good manner that prompts the question of whether that’ll be the catalyst for the awakening, they quickly revert to the same uninspiring bunch that lost two of three in Washington over the weekend.
Aside from a few individuals, the product just isn’t much fun to watch most nights.
The Orioles entered Monday a middling 15th in the majors in runs scored per game with a lineup that strikes out too much and slugs too little despite adding veteran bats Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward, who’ve combined for nine home runs to this point. They’re 28th in runs allowed per game with the starting rotation and defense being the biggest culprits explaining such poor run prevention. Those areas aren’t prioritized nearly enough when it comes to this organization’s philosophy and vision.
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Are we to believe better days are imminent as we approach two calendars years of mediocre-to-bad baseball? Going back to July 1, 2024, the Orioles have gone 134-153, which is more than enough data to support the conclusion that whatever was once working — and produced a 202-129 record from July 2022 through June 2024 — simply isn’t anymore.
It’s not one thing as much as it feels like most everything, which is when it’s time for more drastic action than changing up the manager and coaching staff. If the clock isn’t ticking loudly for Elias and the rest of baseball operations at this point, one questions whether an ownership group that thought it was buying a Ferrari a couple years ago has what it takes to bring sustainable championship contention to a city that hasn’t experienced a World Series in 43 years.
Lowering the bar of expectations surely isn’t the answer.
The injuries continue to be a major problem with 13 players currently on the injured list, Jordan Westburg undergoing season-ending elbow surgery last week and Jackson Holliday only now being activated to make his season debut. And while arm injuries for pitchers are an epidemic across the sport, it’s long past time to question the organization’s strength, conditioning, and training programs from top to bottom with plenty of injuries occurring in the minors as well.
Though he’s cooled off in May, two-time All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman looks as good as he has in a couple years. But his resurgence has coincided with the struggles of All-Star shortstop Gunnar Henderson, who entered Monday with a .269 on-base percentage. The faces of the 2023 AL East champions haven’t been great at the same time in nearly two years and are also getting closer and closer to free agency with Rutschman set to hit the market after next season and Henderson following 2028. That reality leads to a more sobering discussion if this 2026 campaign continues to flounder deep into the summer.
Kyle Bradish is healthy and has looked more like the dominant pitcher who finished fourth in 2023 AL Cy Young voting over his last couple starts. But Trevor Rogers pitching too much like the pre-2025 version of himself and Shane Baz being closer to replacement level than the impact acquisition for which Elias surrendered multiple prospects and a long-term extension have sunk an offseason plan that didn’t include the addition of a proven front-line starter. Despite an $18.5 million contract, Chris Bassitt hasn’t elevated the rotation’s floor either.
The 21-year-old Samuel Basallo is emerging as one of this club’s best players and a potential bargain on the eight-year, $67 million contract extension he signed last August, but the rest of the young core remains a mess of injuries and underperformance. The winning seasons in 2022 and 2023 that were accompanied by a farm system perceived as baseball’s best feel like a very long time ago now.
8Continuing to cite this club’s talent has become nails on a chalkboard. Either the players aren’t good enough or baseball operations aren’t capable of helping them reach their once-lofty potential. Of course, the truth could fall somewhere in between.
Ultimately, there’s too much mediocrity and not enough success stories eight seasons into an Elias era that peaked three years ago without even a single playoff win to show for it. But we’ll keep watching and waiting for now, all the while trying to talk ourselves into the next comeback victory or home run from a struggling hitter being the one that’ll get this team going.
Stranger things have happened in this maddening game of baseball to write off that possibility completely, but this may just be what the once-promising Orioles are now as the successes have become far more fleeting than the disappointment.
