Talking yourself into liking the Orioles bullpen wasn’t difficult as recently as a few weeks ago.
With the projected high-leverage quartet of returning All-Star closer Felix Bautista, veteran newcomer Andrew Kittredge, Yennier Cano, and Seranthony Dominguez to go with the lefty trio of Cionel Perez, Keegan Akin, and former two-time All-Star Gregory Soto and long man Albert Suarez, the upside trumped what we saw last year when general manager Mike Elias bet $13 million on a 36-year-old Craig Kimbrel filling the massive Bautista void. Of course, we know how that turned out as Kimbrel didn’t even make it through the season and Baltimore finished 23rd in the majors in bullpen ERA and 17th in bullpen wins above replacement.
Even after the curious decisions to part with Danny Coulombe and Jacob Webb — who both missed time with elbow problems in 2024 — over the offseason, Bautista being more than 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery and Kittredge bringing years of later-inning experience still looked like net-positive maneuvering. Of course, the idea of 2024 All-Star reliever Jeff Hoffman being an Oriole carried even more appeal before a reported three-year, $40 million agreement was scrapped due to Baltimore’s concerns about the right-hander’s shoulder, prompting Elias to pivot to a one-year, $10 million deal with Kittredge in January.
But much of that early-spring optimism has been replaced by questions less than a week before Opening Day.
Kittredge is now sidelined until at least June after undergoing knee surgery earlier this month. So much for him being the perceived backup plan to Hoffman.
A full offseason with the Orioles hasn’t appeared to solve Dominguez’s propensity for giving up the long ball as he’s allowed a home run in four of six spring appearances and surrendered runs in all but one outing. No, we shouldn’t react too harshly to Grapefruit League numbers, but a couple clean appearances aren’t too much to ask of someone set to make $8 million either. Speaking during Thursday’s MASN broadcast, pitching coach Drew French cited command being a problem for Dominguez this spring before he entered the game and allowed a homer to Yankees shortstop Anthony Volpe on a hanging slider.
And then there’s Bautista, who was arguably the best reliever in baseball before injuring his elbow in late August of 2023 and missing all of last season recovering from ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction. That the 29-year-old threw a bullpen session at Camden Yards hours before Game 1 of the AL Wild Card Series last October led you to assume his Opening Day status wouldn’t be much of a question at all. We’re certainly not talking about someone whose recovery time has been expedited, and he seemed to be on track for the opener when he made his Grapefruit League debut on March 3 and made three more appearances through March 14.
Bautista has apparently thrown on the back fields in the meantime, but going a week between Grapefruit League appearances raises questions if not red flags. Previously saying Bautista needed to make six or seven spring appearances to be ready for Opening Day, manager Brandon Hyde didn’t calm any uneasiness about his status Thursday, but he said on MASN later that evening that the big right-hander is “going to throw a couple more times” and the Orioles are “excited about how he’s looked of late.”
At best, the Orioles are being evasive and extremely careful with someone extremely important to their big picture.
That’s not to suggest anyone should have expected Bautista to immediately pick up where he left off two years ago either, but the potential idea of him beginning the season on the injured list 19 months after the original injury is different than easing him into the ninth-inning crucible by not pitching him back-to-back days or for more than a frame at a time early on. Injury or not, Bautista may never duplicate his extraordinary 2023 campaign, but that doesn’t mean a return to high-impact performance is unrealistic when considering the high success rate of Tommy John surgery.
Asked during Thursday’s broadcast about Bautista adding a cutter to his repertoire over the course of his long rehab, French gave a response open to interpretation that goes well beyond how often we might see the new pitch.
“We’re still trying to figure out what it’s going to be and who Felix is going to be obviously,” French said. “If we expect everything to be the same or similar to 2023, I think we’re all a little bit ignorant. We’re still trying to figure him out and obviously bringing him along slowly based on the rehab and the ramp-up in the offseason.
“It may be a month or two before we really know what’s what with him.”
French had positive things to say about Cano, Perez, and Soto, which was good to hear at the very least. He also offered an endorsement of right-hander Bryan Baker — who’s out of minor-league options — and his improved changeup as he now appears more likely to break camp with the club with Kittredge sidelined and Suarez still vying for the final rotation spot.
But talking about Baker or Matt Bowman being in your bullpen before the season even begins isn’t an encouraging development for a contender, which is why many have clamored for Elias to make an impact addition like former All-Star reliever David Robertson, who remains a free agent. With Kittredge already confirmed to miss a sizable portion of the season, it’s much more of a need than a luxury add, and that would be true even if the Orioles are simply being coy about Bautista’s status and Dominguez is merely working out some spring kinks.
Considering the starting rotation carried questions about its upside even before the mid-spring shutdown of Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles can’t afford to have a problematic bullpen too. But with Bautista’s handling prompting interpretation and angst, the latter could be an even bigger concern for a club with little margin for error in a very competitive AL East.
