Monday, October 26, 2020

Intelligent Conversation

Sizing up the Orioles-Tigers American League Division Series

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Luke Jones
Luke Jones
Luke Jones is the Ravens and Orioles beat reporter for WNST BaltimorePositive.com and is a PFWA member. His mind is consumed with useless sports knowledge, pro wrestler promos, and movie quotes, but he struggles to remember where he put his phone. Luke's favorite sports memories include being one of the thousands of kids who waited to get Cal Ripken's autograph after Orioles games in the summer of 1995, attending the Super Bowl XXXV victory parade with his father in the pouring rain, and watching the Terps advance to the Final Four at the Carrier Dome in 2002. Follow him on Twitter @BaltimoreLuke or email him at Luke@wnst.net.

With the start of the American League Division Series now upon us, here’s how I see the Orioles and Tigers stacking up in their first-ever postseason meeting …

Offense
Advantage: DETROIT
Skinny: The Orioles led the major leagues with 211 home runs, but the Tigers ranked only behind the Los Angeles Angels in runs and finished first in average and second in on-base percentage and slugging percentage in all of baseball.

Defense
Advantage: BALTIMORE
Skinny: Comparing defense isn’t close as the Tigers have above-average fielders at second base (Ian Kinsler) and catcher (Alex Avila) and average or below-average defenders everywhere else while the Orioles ranked third in the AL in defensive efficiency. 

Starting pitching
Advantage: DETROIT
Skinny: This category isn’t nearly as lopsided as the casual observer will tell you as the Orioles sported a better starter ERA (3.61 to 3.89) this season, but you can’t ignore a staff with the three most-recent Cy Young Award winners in a short series. 

Bullpen
Advantage: BALTIMORE
Skinny: The Orioles’ 3.10 bullpen ERA is dramatically better than Detroit’s 4.29 mark as manager Buck Showalter has a slew of options in the late innings while Tigers skipper Brad Ausmus holds his breath with 39-year-old closer Joe Nathan on the hill.

Speed
Advantage: DETROIT
Skinny: The status of outfielder Rajai Davis will dramatically impact this phase, but the Orioles stole fewer bases than any club in the majors and the Tigers also have Kinsler and Andrew Romine as threats on the bases. 

Intangibles
Advantage: BALTIMORE
Skinny: You might be inclined to go with the Tigers in this department considering they have more postseason experience, but how can you not be impressed with the Orioles enduring everything they did this season on the way to winning 96 games?

Coaching
Advantage: BALTIMORE
Skinny: The rookie skipper Ausmus was always respected as having a great baseball mind in his playing days, but Showalter has the experience and the better bullpen, the area in which a manager manipulates a game the most. 

Unsung hero – Darren O’Day
Skinny: When you look at how right-handed heavy the Detroit lineup is, the Orioles will need a strong series from the submariner and a 1.70 ERA in 2014 suggests O’Day is more than ready. 

Prediction – Orioles in five games
Skinny: The Tigers have the advantage with their offense and starting pitching, but those gaps aren’t as dramatic as the Orioles’ edge on defense and in the bullpen. Those two factors will be the difference in what should be a very competitive and entertaining series.

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