Right-hander Dean Kremer was fantastic for the Orioles on Sunday, matching his season high with seven shutout innings in the 5-1 win over Tampa Bay.
Even the casual baseball fan will tell you good starting pitching makes the game look so much easier, a sentiment interim manager Tony Mansolino expressed after Baltimore won just its second series since early June. Of course, the 2025 season has been anything but easy for an extremely disappointing Orioles club.
“When our starters throw the ball good, we hit better, we play better defense, we win games,” Mansolino said. “And I think all 30 teams are that way. I don’t think it’s unique to us. As our starters go, we kind of go.”
Kremer’s outing was just the Orioles’ fourth quality start going back to June 6, which largely explains why Baltimore remains more than 10 games under .500 a month before the July 31 trade deadline. The club’s on-field problems extend beyond the starting pitching, of course, but there’s no disputing the rotation being a main culprit when the Orioles entered Monday ranked 29th in the majors in starter ERA and 28th in starter wins above replacement in 2025, according to FanGraphs.
The only real reprieve came during a two-week stretch from May 24 through June 5 in which Baltimore ranked fifth in the majors in starter ERA and seventh in starter WAR. The Orioles won nine of 11 over that stretch — which included a season-best six-game winning streak — to improve to 25-36 after being a season-worst 18 games under .500 on May 24. But instead of that stretch being the catalyst back to serious wild-card contention, the Orioles have gone only 11-11 while ranking last in starter ERA and 17th in starter WAR in their last 22 games. Baltimore ranks sixth in the majors in runs scored and eighth in on-base plus slugging percentage over that same stretch, which reflects the recent improvement of a disappointing offense that still hasn’t been able to overcome the poor starting pitching many nights.
Even if you’re already at peace with general manager Mike Elias and the last-place Orioles likely selling off assets before the July 31 deadline, the starting rotation isn’t cooperating in ways one might have anticipated a few weeks ago.
That was apparent even during the weekend series win over the Rays with Opening Day starter Zach Eflin exiting Saturday’s start after one inning with lower back discomfort that officially landed him on the 15-day injured list on Monday. Whether the back issue has been the driving force or not, Eflin’s last three starts have been nothing short of disastrous with the 31-year-old allowing 17 earned runs and 27 hits over nine innings. Less than a month ago, Eflin looked like an attractive trade chip — or even a candidate for a sensible contract extension — with a 4.08 ERA, but one now wonders if the Orioles will be able to move someone sporting a 5.95 ERA, still owed roughly half of an $18 million salary, and now facing his second IL stint of the season.
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A similar sentiment applies for right-hander Tomoyuki Sugano, who allowed a season-worst seven runs on Friday night after being pushed back a couple days for extra rest. Used to working in a six-man rotation over a long career in Japan, the 35-year-old posted a 3.04 ERA over his first 12 starts in the majors, but he’s now failed to complete five innings in three of the last four starts and posted an 8.15 ERA over his last 17 2/3 innings, raising his season ERA to 4.06. Though Sugano’s recent struggles haven’t been as dramatic as what we’ve seen from Eflin, his lack of a track record in the majors could leave suitors reluctant to fork over much value for a $13 million pitcher who’s needed pinpoint command to overcome his lack of swing-and-miss stuff.
Ironically, the Orioles’ worst starters over the first month of the season — Charlie Morton and Kremer — have become their most consistent ones in recent weeks with the former owning a 2.82 ERA since mid-May and the latter pitching to a 2.98 mark since the beginning of May. With Kremer still carrying two more years of club control, however, a league-average starter for the better part of four seasons probably has more value to the pitching-needy Orioles than a contender looking for a short-term boost. The 29-year-old remains better suited for the No. 4 or No. 5 starter job, but Baltimore’s playoff hopes would be in better shape with five Kremers in its current rotation, which speaks to how poor the starting pitching has been.
The 41-year-old Morton is a different story as he’s owed the remainder of a $15 million salary on a one-year contract. His season ERA of 5.63 still looks ugly, but it was above 7.00 on Memorial Day, which reflects how well he’s pitched over the last six weeks or so. Morton’s also averaging more than a strikeout per inning in his 18th major league season, which should make him appealing to a contender. The Orioles being willing to pay down some of his remaining salary would further help a trade return.
You’d prefer being able to believe the same about Eflin and Sugano, but the last few weeks have clouded such assumptions.
The ineffectiveness and injuries of the rotation have played a major part in both burying the Orioles and keeping them from escaping the early-season hole. Making matters worse, the recent struggles of once-dependable starters are now hurting possible silver linings at the trade deadline as well.
