With the Ravens aiming to improve to 6-1 in their anticipated AFC North encounter with undefeated Pittsburgh, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. The first 2019 meeting between these teams took place when Baltimore was teetering from back-to-back losses and the Steelers were 1-3 and had already lost Ben Roethlisberger. It’s great seeing these AFC North rivals jockeying for position among the NFL’s very best simultaneously for the first time in several years.
2. Sunday marks the first game between Lamar Jackson and Roethlisberger as starters, which is fun considering the reigning MVP was only 9 when the Pittsburgh quarterback won his first Super Bowl. Jackson is aiming for his first big moment in the rivalry after his rough Week 5 performance last year.
3. A key will be how Jackson and the offensive line handle a defense with a blitz rate second only to the Ravens. After producing 26 touchdown passes and a 119.3 passer rating against the blitz last season, Jackson has only three touchdowns and a 75.4 rating against blitzes in 2020.
4. After running for a season-high 108 yards against Philadelphia, Jackson may need busy legs once again against a Steelers run defense ranking second in yards allowed per game and first in Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric. Jackson accounted for more than half of Baltimore’s rushing yardage in Week 5 last year.
5. One of the anticipated matchups is Marlon Humphrey against slot receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, but Jimmy Smith’s status could change that. If the veteran can’t play or is limited, Wink Martindale would be looking at an undersized, inexperienced Khalil Dorsey or Terrell Bonds at the nickel with Humphrey outside. Not ideal.
6. Pittsburgh has allowed the fourth-highest explosive pass-play percentage to wide receivers and has faced the highest average depth of throw in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. If the Ravens want opposing safeties to back away from the box, it’s time to start hitting on some deep shots.
7. The Ravens (own 34.1) and Steelers (own 33.5) rank first and second for best starting field position in the NFL. That speaks to how much better these defenses have made middle-of-the-pack offenses look through six games with both teams ranking in the top eight in scoring.
8. Special teams have also played a big part in that field position as Baltimore ranks first and Pittsburgh fifth in special teams efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. Chris Horton’s coverage units must be sharp to keep Steelers return specialist Ray-Ray McCloud in check.
9. With Roethlisberger getting the ball out more quickly than anyone in the league, the Ravens will be happy to have the 6-foot-8 Calais Campbell and the 6-foot-5 Derek Wolfe getting their hands up in passing lanes. Matthew Judon said “catch-tackles” to minimize yardage and batted passes are key.
10. With Mark Ingram doubtful to play due to an ankle injury and the Steelers so tough against the run, you’d have to wonder if Greg Roman leans on quick passes to rookie J.K. Dobbins. That would counter blitzes and test inexperienced linebacker Robert Spillane, who’s replaced the injured Devin Bush.
11. John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin will square off for the 25th time in the regular season. That’s a post-merger record for two head coaches, per the Elias Sports Bureau. It’s no wonder these teams remain so successful with the Ravens having only three head coaches and Pittsburgh two since 1996.
12. I never expected Dez Bryant to play against Pittsburgh, but it’ll be interesting to watch this play out. The age comparisons to older veterans like Steve Smith when they joined the Ravens couldn’t be less relevant, however, because of Bryant’s two-plus-season layoff. Jeremy Maclin was three years younger. Big whoop.
Prediction: Some technical difficulties this week derailed my usual predictions piece, but put me down for a 20-16 Ravens win in what will feel like a throwback game between two elite defenses.
