The Orioles appeared on their way to a home run of a winter a month ago.
Pete Alonso. Ryan Helsley. Taylor Ward. Shane Baz. Andrew Kittredge. Zach Eflin.
But with pitchers and catchers set to report to Sarasota for the start of spring training next week, president of baseball operations Mike Elias has yet to punctuate the encouraging work accomplished over the first couple months of the offseason. Whether Baltimore needs an exclamation point or merely a period to cap that activity is up for debate, but the work still looks and feels incomplete if the goal is to rebound from a nightmare start to 2025, a trade deadline sell-off, and a last-place finish to qualify for the playoffs for the third time in four years.
That’s just the reality of playing in an American League East in which three clubs qualified for the postseason last October.
The five-year, $155 million signing of Alonso — who has the third-most home runs in the majors since making his debut in 2019 — signaled a new era under owner David Rubenstein and should alleviate the pressure on everyone else in an Orioles lineup that largely underperformed last season. And regardless of whether Elias maximized the return value for former top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez, the November trade for Ward should help stabilize an outfield that was in flux for much of 2025. That addition looked even better when Alonso’s arrival made Ward the second-best offensive pickup of the offseason.
The amount of improvement made by the young position core remains critical to the Orioles’ fate, of course, but Alonso and Ward should ease the burden on the collection of talent headlined by star shortstop Gunnar Henderson. And while fair questions persist about the defense and overall positional makeup of the roster, new manager Craig Albernaz appears to have more viable options than everyday spots in the batting order, which is a good problem to have.
But what about the pitching?
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Elias sent four prospects and a 2026 draft pick to Tampa Bay for the 26-year-old Baz, whose former elite prospect status and injury history remind of Rodriguez. However, the difference is Baz seemingly putting his health woes — which included Tommy John surgery in 2022 — behind him over the last 18 months. Since the start of July in 2024, the right-hander has made 45 starts and logged 245 2/3 innings, pitching to a 4.29 ERA over that stretch.
Given Baz’s high-90s fastball and above-average knuckle curve, the Orioles are projecting bigger and better things for someone under club control through 2028.
“We see him as a front-end-of-the-rotation starter. I think he has a ceiling to tap into being a top-of-the-rotation starter,” Elias said in December. “We’re not necessarily asking that of him in 2026, but he has that potential. He’s got probably one of the best starting pitcher arms in the major leagues, and he’s got really elite stuff.”
Elias also made a $10 million bet on Eflin bouncing back from a forgettable and injury-plagued 2025 that ended with him undergoing back surgery in August. The Orioles won’t ask him to be their Opening Day starter again, but Eflin would be a valuable addition to the back half of the rotation if he can pitch anywhere close to how he did over the previous two seasons when he posted a 3.54 ERA over 59 starts. Much will depend on when Eflin will be ready to pitch and whether the back issue is behind him for good as he prepares for his age-32 season.
Given the presence of a healthy Kyle Bradish and the rejuvenated Trevor Rogers, the Orioles are certainly in better shape in the starter department than they were a year ago when nearly all rotation upside was depending on Rodriguez, who never threw a pitch in 2025. But Elias also didn’t shy away from expressing a desire to add a top-shelf starter earlier this offseason, and neither Baz nor Eflin really fits that description — at least right now. And expecting Bradish to throw 160-plus innings for the first time since 2023 and Rogers to duplicate his statistical brilliance from last year are hardly slam dunks.
There have been no shortage of reports continuing to link the Orioles to two-time All-Star lefty Framber Valdez, who remains unsigned a week before pitchers and catchers report to spring training. It also wasn’t lost on fans that Rubenstein indicated at Alonso’s December press conference that the financial clout remained to make another splash, and Baltimore was reportedly courting Ranger Suarez before he landed in Boston.
8The 32-year-old Valdez and arguably Zac Gallen — coming off a disappointing age-29 season — are the only remaining free agents who fit the profile of top-half-of-the-rotation arms, but one could argue there’s always room for more back-end depth when considering what the Orioles endured last year and the fragile state of pitching across baseball. Either way, the clock is ticking with the track record for pitchers signing after the start of spring not being promising in recent years.
At least with Bradish, Rogers, and Baz, one can acknowledge this rotation having lots of upside as currently constructed.
But trying to say the same for the bullpen is quite a stretch — even with the addition of a two-time All-Star closer in Helsley and the return of Kittredge. After all, we’re talking about a club that traded away four relievers — Kittredge being one of them — last July and lost former All-Star closer Felix Bautista to major shoulder surgery that’s expected to sideline him for most or all of the coming season.
That’s not even accounting for the decline of 2023 All-Star reliever Yennier Cano, who fell below replacement level this past season and is hardly a lock for the Opening Day bullpen.
Even if you’re intrigued by the idea of Tyler Wells in a relief role — which is more reason to add starting depth — and encouraged by what you saw from the likes of Kade Strowd, Dietrich Enns, and Rico Garcia as the Orioles played out the string last August and September, expecting all of them to be up to the task in 2026 would be a mistake. A club with serious thoughts of contending still needs at least one more high-leverage arm, especially for those nights when Helsley isn’t available.
The problem is the lack of appealing free-agent relievers remaining on the board at this stage of the winter. And while one might argue that these are the types of arms that can be acquired by the trade deadline, the Orioles can’t afford to be dropping winnable games early in the season, especially playing in the AL East.
Elias and the Orioles deserve credit for all they accomplished by the time the calendar officially turned to 2026 five weeks ago. A more aggressive offseason has produced a better club on paper than it was last year.
But we’re still waiting for that exclamation point to the winter.
Even a bold period would make the start of Sarasota workouts that much more exciting.
