In case you haven’t heard or are understandably guarded after years of baseball hell, the Orioles are fun again.
With an improved record every month since the start of the season, Brandon Hyde’s scrappy club has gone 19-9 since falling a season-low 11 games under .500 on June 10. Winners of eight straight in a single season for the first time since 2005, the Orioles are 27-20 since the debut of Adley Rutschman on May 21. That’s not to imply the improvement is solely because of the former top overall pick who’s still getting acclimated to the majors, but his arrival sure felt like the symbolic turning point of an excruciating rebuild under general manager Mike Elias.
Judging by the chants of his name and the growing number of Rutschman shirts in the seating bowl at Camden Yards this weekend, Orioles fans are buying into that hope — with floppy hat and Hawaiian shirt giveaways certainly helping.
Excluding the bizarre 2020 pandemic campaign, the Orioles haven’t been a game within .500 this late in a season since their last-gasp playoff push in August 2017 that crashed to the basement of the AL East with a 4-19 finish. That they’ve played such inspiring baseball despite long-term injuries to top starter John Means and top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez — who almost surely would have been in the majors by now — makes their performance even more surprising. And it’s not as though the roster is littered with players having slam-dunk All-Star-caliber seasons either, further adding to the underdog story.
Despite the hype for next month’s 30th anniversary celebration, there hasn’t been nearly enough meaningful baseball at Camden Yards over the last three decades, making it easy to look at the current wild-card standings and dream of 2012. And to be clear, fans absolutely should enjoy this run, especially after suffering through three seasons of 108-plus losses.
But before getting carried away with playoff talk and trade deadline activity, we need to acknowledge the “global” perspective Elias cited this weekend. As fun as the Orioles have been to watch, we’re still grading a 43-44 team on a curve and must acknowledge that if we’re going to talk about any deadline activity. Of their 75 remaining games, 49 are against teams currently above .500 with 42 in the AL East, a brutal division in which Baltimore stills stands last. Such a schedule doesn’t bode well for a patchwork rotation led by Tyler Wells, whose workload will continue to be restricted in the second half.
No one anticipated such improvement from the 2022 Orioles, but expecting this to last isn’t exactly a safe bet either.
The culmination of the rebuild was never to try to catch lightning in a bottle and sneak into an expanded postseason field, which is why the focus should remain on the future while appreciating whatever the present has to offer. That said, the improved play coupled with the arrival of Rutschman and the status of other top prospects at Triple-A Norfolk should crystalize the 2023 objective that would have been up for more debate with another 100-loss season.
The Orioles should be making serious efforts to contend next year.
Turning the dial is probably the more accurate description than flipping a switch in terms of making more aggressive roster additions and increasing payroll, but this offseason needs to look much different than what we’ve witnessed since Elias arrived in November 2018.
What does that mean for the upcoming trade deadline and the remainder of this season?
Elias should still be aiming to add long-term talent to the organization — especially starting pitching — but that no longer means trading veterans for salary relief and lottery tickets, which would be deflating for a young core still learning to win. The hard truth is the most likely trade candidates — including Trey Mancini — aren’t going to fetch much with clubs valuing prospects more than ever, so there’s a fair argument to stand pat with Mancini and allow this improbable run to play out. However, the fourth-year general manager shouldn’t shy away from being bold if there is an opportunity to land premium talent for the future by dealing from an organizational strength such as the outfield. In other words, if an overwhelming offer for Cedric Mullins or Austin Hays presents itself, the Orioles should pull the trigger.
If this 43-44 start has altered the organization’s short-term vision in any way, it should be to expedite development plans for the infield, which remains a clear weak link at the major league level. While long-term questions persist about the starting rotation due to a lack of depth, the Orioles should take an extended look at Triple-A infield prospects Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Terrin Vavra sooner than later instead of continuing to give everyday at-bats to players profiling to be backups at best. It’s also no secret that this winter’s free-agent class is full of quality shortstops, which is more reason for the Orioles to get a head start on evaluating their own candidates to see what they have.
The biggest question mark of the trio, Vavra is already 25 and has seen most of his playing time at second base and center field this season. Even if he ultimately profiles as a utility option at the next level, you’d like to see how his defense and .329/.432/.456 slash line in 177 plate appearances with the Tides will play in the majors.
Westburg, 23, landed at No. 97 on Baseball America’s latest top 100 prospect list released Monday and has already collected 20 extra-base hits in 125 plate appearances at Triple-A. Though he’s drawn just five walks, it’s difficult not to be impressed by a .319/.352/.622 slash line at the highest level of the minors. Westburg has started multiple games at shortstop, second, and third base at Norfolk.
With Henderson having just turned 21 and now ranking as Baseball American’s seventh-best overall prospect, the Orioles could be tempted to delay starting his service clock until after the start of next season to gain an additional year of club control. That said, he may have the highest ceiling of any position player in the organization and is the kind of high-end talent you want on a club vying for the playoffs. It remains to be seen whether Henderson sticks at short or eventually settles in at third as he continues to play both spots at Norfolk, but a .264/.388/.472 Triple-A slash line for someone his age is exciting.
Along with promoting talented pitching prospect DL Hall and slugging outfielder Kyle Stowers, it only makes sense for the Orioles to evaluate this infield trio and allow them to get acclimated to the majors ahead of next season. As much as one might like Jorge Mateo’s defense and speed — a profile that would still make him a valuable utility infielder — and Rougned Odor’s veteran presence for the current club, they’re not starting-caliber players on a playoff contender, which is how the Orioles should begin viewing themselves for 2023 and beyond.
The present is serving as an exciting preview, but it’s time to starting getting serious thinking about next year.
