Subtracting pitchers Cole Sulser and Tanner Scott may have resulted in the Orioles losing 112 or 113 games instead of 110 last season, which is why it’s not worth getting all that worked up over their trade to Miami on Sunday.
Whether you believed for a fifth straight spring that the hard-throwing Scott — who will turn 28 in July — was going to put it all together or remembered the 32-year-old Sulser was Baltimore’s best reliever last year, no one envisioned either being relevant to those dreams of a pennant in 2025. The Orioles’ acquisition of a competitive balance pick — adding to their draft bonus pool in the process — as well as 25-year-old lefty pitcher Antonio Velez, 18-year-old outfielder Kevin Guerrero, and a player to be named later represented a return good enough to forgo waiting for more at the trade deadline and risking the volatility associated with so many middle relievers.
But it’s growing more difficult selling fans on future draft picks and lottery tickets entering Year 4 of the Mike Elias era and another season in which the only relevant standings-related question will be whether the Orioles avoid a fourth straight 100-plus-loss finish when you throw out the shortened 2020 season from the discussion. Whether it’s a fair indictment of his tenure or not, there still isn’t much at the major league level to which the average fan can point for excitement that wasn’t already part of the organization when Elias arrived in November 2018. Of course, that’s not to suggest the current regime doesn’t deserve credit for developing the likes of John Means, Cedric Mullins, and Ryan Mountcastle or building one of baseball’s highest-ranked farm systems, but we’re still waiting to see real fruits at the major league level from a number of Elias trades and three draft classes to suggest there’s indeed a defined light at the end of this long tunnel of losing. It certainly hasn’t helped that both Dan Duquette’s 2018 fire-sale return and the most recent wave of starting pitching candidates — arms in the system before Elias arrived — have been such a flop to this stage in the game.
Even if Scott and Sulser were unlikely to move the win-loss meter to any meaningful degree, Sunday’s trade reiterates that 2022 still isn’t remotely about winning at the major league level. But that doesn’t make it an easier pill to swallow for anyone still trying to get excited about Opening Day later this week — or pondering buying tickets before the debut of Adley Rutschman and the arrival of any other top prospects later this summer. Hyping the 30th birthday of Oriole Park at Camden Yards just doesn’t go very far when the last accomplishment the Orioles celebrated was, well, the ballpark’s 25th anniversary in 2017.
That’s why I’ll continue to maintain that a show of good faith from the Orioles is needed for a fan base subjected to particularly lousy baseball for going on five years now.
To be clear, they don’t need to immediately acquire an elite player on a massive nine-figure contract or be overly sentimental to extend Trey Mancini — though I certainly wouldn’t be opposed to the former development or a reasonable contract for the inspirational 30-year-old slugger that runs through 2024 or so. But a sign of there being a clear timeline for contention and the day when wins and losses matter — and somewhat useful players will no longer be dealt — would go a long way. If the answer is simply continuing to wait on every heralded young prospect to arrive and seemingly wasting early years of club control in the process, that doesn’t show much conviction in where you’re going as an organization and provides ammunition to those leery of a perpetual state of rebuilding and the great amount of money it saves ownership in the process.
Of course, the Orioles already sat out an offseason in which some long-term investment in the major league club would have been welcomed with the understanding that it wouldn’t have made them an immediate contender in 2022. At the very least, watching Tampa Bay sign 20-year-old shortstop Wander Franco to an 11-year, $182 million contract last November begs the question why the Orioles wouldn’t do everything they can to extend the 24-year-old Rutschman in an effort to have him for an extra season or two beyond their six-plus years of club control and eliminate any conflict related to service time, arbitration, and eventual free agency. As stated on previous occasions, there’s quite a range of activity between spending like the Los Angeles Dodgers and doing what the Orioles are choosing to do.
You can only sell farm system rankings for so long before fans wonder more and more when — and if — that future begins to mesh with a meaningful present. Even when a deal looks good through an objective lens, trading Scott and Sulser was a reminder that the Orioles are still focused on a future that isn’t about 2022 or very likely even 2023.
This deep into the Elias era, it’s fair to ask when wins and losses will begin to matter.
