The Ravens are back in the playoffs for the fourth time in five seasons and 10th time in John Harbaugh’s 15 seasons in Baltimore.
It’s a kind of run even Harbaugh’s critics shouldn’t take for granted as the calendar turns to January and the Ravens again find themselves in the dance. Despite legitimate concerns threatening the chances of a deep playoff run this year, the 10-5 Ravens would still win the AFC North with victories over Pittsburgh and Cincinnati to close the regular season. But a loss to the Steelers on Sunday Night Football coupled with a Bengals win over Buffalo on Monday night would give the division championship to Cincinnati with one week to play.
As much as the playoff picture has come into focus for the Ravens, the status of star quarterback Lamar Jackson remains as clear as mud more than three weeks after he injured his left knee early in the Week 13 win over Denver. While NFL Network reports that Jackson is expected to test out his knee in practice this week — the same outlet reported team optimism about his Week 16 status that never came to fruition — Harbaugh indicated “we’ll just have to see” when asked about the quarterback’s status on Monday.
The Ravens being vague about injuries is nothing new, of course, but one could reason that revealing Jackson will practice would force the Steelers to devote even more preparation to the possibility of him playing even if he ultimately misses a fourth straight contest. In other words, we’re well beyond the kind of gamesmanship that would involve Jackson suddenly taking the field ready to play in a game without some meaningful practice time to make sure his knee is healthy and sound. Perhaps more interesting than Harbaugh’s answer about Jackson’s practice status this week was his reply when asked if he was still optimistic about the 2019 NFL MVP returning at some point this season.
“Sure,” Harbaugh said, “of course.”
Take that answer however you’d like — I wouldn’t obsess over it one way or the other, to be clear — but no one should be surprised that Jackson didn’t make the shorter end of the timetable for a reported sprained PCL since a premature return was never in the best interest of him or the Ravens. This wasn’t a situation in which it made sense to slap a brace on Jackson’s knee and tell him to simply play more from the pocket when his mobility is what makes him a special quarterback. It helps immensely that Baltimore has gone 3-1 since Jackson’s exit at the end of the first quarter against the Broncos on Dec. 4, but we’re approaching the point where a continued absence has more distinct consequences and prompts more questions and concerns.
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A healthy Jackson returning this week would certainly enhance Baltimore’s chances of beating Pittsburgh and ensuring Week 18 will be an AFC North championship game at Cincinnati. A loss and a Bengals win over the Bills would leave the Ravens with nothing for which to play beyond wild-card seeding in the regular-season finale, which would provide less incentive to play Jackson and select veterans ahead of the first round of the playoffs. Though the Ravens would clearly prefer to win the division to guarantee a home playoff game and to try to avoid facing one of the AFC’s big three — Buffalo, Kansas City, or Cincinnati — in the opening round, optimizing Jackson’s health remains the best shot at playing deep into January if an extra week or two would indeed make a significant difference for his knee.
But this is when we also have to acknowledge the reality of the Ravens’ recent performance as well as business elements for both Jackson and the organization.
A very good defense and running game have been enough to get past sub-.500 teams, but the Ravens aren’t making a deep playoff run without Jackson’s upside and improvement in a passing game that was floundering even with him and has looked completely broken with backup Tyler Huntley at the helm. Having scored more than 17 points just once since Week 10, the Ravens rank 27th in Football Outsiders’ passing efficiency metric since the first three weeks of the season and were 23rd from Week 4 through Week 12, the last time Jackson was healthy. Arbitrarily saving him for the playoffs sounds great in a video game, but that plan sounds suboptimal from a football standpoint without him at least being able to log meaningful practice time with the rest of the offense before the weekend of Jan. 14, which would make six weeks since the injury occurred.
“Players play when they’re healthy and ready to go. That’s really all we do,” Harbaugh said after the 17-9 win over Atlanta. “When the player and the docs come back and say, ‘Hey, it’s time,’ then [as] coaches, we build him into the game plan. That’s really how [it works]. To think about it beyond that is just kind of a waste of energy and time.
“Lamar is working very hard to get back. The trainers are working very hard to get him back. I’m optimistic in so many ways but focused on our team and the next game plan with who we have really.”
Of course, ignoring the business side would be naive with Jackson scheduled to hit free agency in less than three months and the Ravens playing without their franchise quarterback for the bulk of December for a second straight season. Is Jackson willing to play at less than 100% if his knee isn’t going to be fully healed by year’s end and carries even a small risk for a setback? How hard would the organization push him to play under such circumstances? Regardless of what happens in what’s shaping up to be an interesting offseason, both sides have long-term interests beyond the 2022 playoffs to consider. How couldn’t they after two offseasons of unsuccessful contract extension talks?
Maybe it will be as simple as Jackson returning to the practice field this week, feeling and looking good, and playing against Pittsburgh in prime time after a three-game absence, which was always within the range of expectations when he hurt his knee against the Broncos. Or perhaps we’ll continue waiting, wondering, and asking these same questions.
Clinching a playoff berth last week may have proven this wasn’t going to be a repeat of last year for the Ravens, but doubts will persist about Jackson’s status — and Baltimore’s postseason outlook — until we see him back on the field and looking ready to make a run.
