This draft felt different for the Orioles.
Though the financial commitment from ownership and much work from general manager Mike Elias will remain to turn the major league club into a perennial contender, the backdrop of a .500 first half — a 16-game improvement from the 92-game mark last year — made having the first overall pick for the second time in four years feel more like an exciting opportunity than an act of desperation. Three years ago, Oregon State catcher and first overall choice Adley Rutschman instantly became the savior and face of the rebuild for an organization in ruins after its 47-115 season in 2018. He couldn’t fail, and that sentiment holds true for the 24-year-old rookie catcher even today.
No, the talent cupboard wasn’t bare at the time — evident by watching this year’s Orioles — but there was no sign of light at the end of the tunnel as Brandon Hyde’s club was on its way to a 108-loss season. Even as the organization’s farm system rankings began to improve, picking in the top five in 2020 and 2021 didn’t feel much better with the major league team still playing 100-loss baseball.
But with Rutschman now in the majors and looking more and more like the real deal after a slow start, early Elias picks Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Kyle Stowers on the cusp at Triple-A Norfolk, and other recent choices such as 2021 first-round pick Colton Cowser succeeding at Double-A Bowie, the future appears bright, and that’s not even counting top pitching prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall, the final first-round picks of the Dan Duquette era. If Elias and the Orioles are doing this correctly, the first overall selection of Jackson Holliday — and hopefully a few others from the 2022 class — will be strengthening and sustaining a club that’s already contending before the talented shortstop arrives at Camden Yards in a few years.
The current 46-46 record and wild-card chances — slim as they might be — at the All-Star break should only be the beginning rather than the endgame.
“I think that’s a step, and now we’re adding what’s going to be a big new wave to the bottom of what is an excellent farm system,” Elias said Sunday night. “I say it all the time, our division is ridiculous. We’ve got to tangle with these four extraordinarily well-run, well-resourced organizations. But I think that this Orioles organization is in the healthiest spot it’s been in in a very long time, and it just got a lot healthier.”
Calling the son of a former seven-time All-Star outfielder a “potential star,” Elias went with the player he believed to be the best in the draft after going underslot in each of the previous two years, a strategy not perceived favorably by many fans despite being misunderstood. And while we’ll inevitably track the careers of Druw Jones, Termarr Johnson, Elijah Green, and Brooks Lee to see how the top of the 2022 draft panned out, Holliday checks every box at this early stage of the process.
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Still, you never really know, which is what makes having the first overall pick so exciting and unsettling.
Just in the last week, Detroit demoted 2020 first overall pick Spencer Torkelson to the minors and Philadelphia sent down former one-one selections Mickey Moniak and Mark Appel. A high-school talent can be particularly volatile, but there is an array of acceptable outcomes between Holliday becoming the best player in this draft and winding up a total bust. The Houston Rockets may not have drafted Michael Jordan in 1984, but Hakeem Olajuwon still worked out pretty well, right?
Even with some noting how Henderson now ranks among the very best prospects in baseball, you should never be drafting for short-term need in baseball as Elias cited Houston taking shortstop Alex Bregman the same year shortstop Carlos Correa debuted and how the Astros had no problem finding room for both. If Holliday develops how the Orioles hope, he could push Henderson or Westburg off shortstop, replace a veteran stopgap, or even become the centerpiece of a trade for that Cy Young-caliber pitcher needed to get Baltimore over the hump in October.
It’s fun to dream of such scenarios with the Orioles improving and adding another top-shelf talent to their system after years of the draft being the highlight of their summer.
“In some regard, I don’t know that the ceiling gets much higher than somebody with that profile,” Elias said. “But also, with the five tools that he brings to the table, with the defensive position that he plays, with the off-field work ethic that we know is there and the presence of both the power and hit tool, I think even if his development doesn’t go perfectly, there’s a lot of different productive pathways this will go down.”
Not only will Holliday headline the newest collection of talent for a system already held in high regard, but this draft class is also shaping up to be the next frontier for a regime that avoided taking pitchers early in its first three drafts. After selecting just two in the first 10 rounds of the 2019 draft, one in the abbreviated five-round draft in 2020, and one in the first 10 rounds last year, the Orioles took five college hurlers on the second day of the 2022 draft, which covered the third through 10th rounds. This will be the next trend to monitor in player development as the Orioles strive to build a more balanced pipeline that doesn’t slant as heavily toward hitting.
Unlike the last few years when the draft felt like everything for an organization trying to get back to respectability, the 2022 edition will hopefully be about augmenting and sustaining something special that’s already in place in the coming years. Creating a competitive window like the one enjoyed during the Duquette era is one thing, but keeping it open and taking it to greater heights is the real goal, especially after suffering through so much losing these last few years.
If Elias’ plan is working, the Orioles should already be making the playoffs by the time Holliday arrives. But they’ll hope the talented shortstop enhances their odds of winning the World Series one day.
Below is the Orioles’ entire 2022 draft class:
