Sure, Seattle is in first place in the AL West, but have you seen that anemic offense? The Orioles will this week late into the night for the 4th of July holiday and Luke Jones says it’s good series to test the M’s stellar pitching.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
orioles, year, mariners, good, pitching, series, playing, point, give, yankees, win, rodriguez, team, baseball, october, offense, games, trade, holliday, wildcard
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor J. Aparicio
Nestor J. Aparicio 00:01
8
Welcome home we are W n s t, Towson, Baltimore, Baltimore positive or positively into the Fourth of July and the Orioles around on the west coast but it’ll be back on the East Coast next weekend. We will be down at fade Lee’s in Lexington market Luke and I will be getting together as well as well. Probably some Yankees fans as well. Not too far from the Casa de bambino. Maybe you want to do a little private tour of the Babe Ruth Museum. The Yankees fans will be in next weekend. Oriole stands to be downtown will be the 12th we will be there giving away the Gold Rush sevens doublers with the top prizes $10,000 did have a $20 winner two weeks ago Coco’s some folks when I’m convinced they when they go out the door they don’t tell me how much money they’ve won. But if you went down to families come down, we’ll get a picture taken with you and get you some shrimp salad. It’s delicious crab cake will be a fade these on the 12th brought to you by our friends at Liberty pure solutions, keeping our water crystal clear as well as our friends at Jiffy Lube multi care you hear about them all the time here. During these wise conversations. I feel really bad. I shattered my cold roofing mug. So I am drinking my royal farms now out of a Dundalk mug with eastpoint Mall on at the Battle of battle grove. Luke, I’m gonna need some coffee for you and I had to get together early on the Fourth of July and the fifth of July and into the weekend. I wanted to take you out to Oakland dude. I thought for a minute like we should go out to San Francisco, we should drink proper tequila, or you know on the anniversary of our country’s declaration of freedom. And we should be free to go watch baseball with like, a couple 100 friends and family this weekend in Oakland.
Luke Jones 01:40
Yeah, yeah, I mean, the Coliseum in all its glory and something. But it’s always strange when the Orioles go out to the West Coast. And obviously in the years where they haven’t been as good which has been more often than not over the last 30 plus years. They’re kind of I mean, not kind of they’re completely forgotten about but obviously a different scenario now and an opportunity to first go out to Seattle where you’re gonna face some good pitching. I mean, the mariners pitch they pitch at a very high level. You look at the three starters that the Orioles are in line to see George Kirby Logan, Gilbert, Bryce Miller, all have good numbers. I mean, the worst era out of those out of that trio is 388 problem for the mariners is they don’t score any runs. I mean, one of the worst offense is in baseball, and they’ve been to this point the class of the Al west but Houston is is calming as the Orioles found out in painful fashion a couple of weekends ago, as the Astros are really surging, surging. I mean, the Rangers you know, they beat the Orioles Sunday night, but certainly not looking great for them. But Seattle, I mean, they pitch but you almost feel like if the Orioles and the mariners joined forces, my goodness, what a super team you would have there in terms of the bats and then on the pitching side. But this is an opportunity for the Orioles to go out to the West Coast understanding there’s not quite as much of a microscope as they’ve been under the last few weeks with some of the tough matchups they’ve faced, tough series they played, and to go out there and win a series and then go to Oakland, which, you know, earlier on this season, the A’s were playing. I don’t know if admirable was the right way, you know, or the right description considering all the circumstances there. But you know, you look at them now and they’re playing 350 people, you know, shouldn’t have any problem there. So this is a week where you want to go out to the West Coast and you understand that you might need to bring your own energy so to speak, especially in Oakland at the Coliseum but it will be an opportunity for the Orioles to to win some ballgames. And as we’ve been talking about this al East race where Orioles Yankees neck and neck, you know literally tied for first place at the end of Sunday night although the Orioles ahead, percentage points wise. So you want to go out to the West Coast and keep things going. You know, this team’s played good baseball on the road. You know, they played good baseball just about anywhere other than Houston for a long time now, so you want to keep that going. But like I said, this is a mariners team that you better bring the bats that were so red hot in June, you want that to continue into July, but this is also a team that because we’ve talked about the Orioles challenges with their pitching once you get beyond burns and Grayson Rodriguez, and we’ll see where burns fits in. You know, he was on the paternity list this weekend. And I assume we’re gonna see him for one of these two last games of the Seattle series. But for anyone that’s taken the mound, this is a Seattle team that even some of the names you recognize, like Julio Rodriguez, for example. They’re just not hitting. I mean, again, kind of crazy to think about a team that is eight games or you know eight over five I have 100 and has a multi game lead in the Al west but they’re one of the worst offensive in baseball. So that’s where it’s tough to look at the Mariners and say are they going to be able to hold off the Astros? The way this thing’s going because they need offense in the worst way. Well,
Nestor J. Aparicio 05:16
I’m gonna reach my boy Dave Sims and see if he come on a little bit or I can reach the Mari brown out in Seattle and talk about the Mariners and Larry Stone people I’ve had on for years and years and years talking about the Mariners and I had Darrell writer on last week and munch Bishop when we were playing the Indian or excuse me, the Guardians. I’m gonna make that mistake. And I said the R word to somebody the other day about the Washington football team in regard to hooting the blowfish. So, um, but the mariners I could still say that are the M’s. I mean, I go back to Bruce bhakti and Rupert Jones, right, like so. I look at this and a rod and Ken Griffey and all they’ve had there another place that like, you and I, in a previous conversation said, are the Orioles going to grow up and be like the Cardinals? Are they going to grow up and be like the rays? We don’t think there’ll be like the Phillies because they won’t have that sort of revenue. But where, where will the Rubinstein Orioles fit in? Payroll wise philosophically? I mean, the mariners shopped in, in in Asia before anybody didn’t certainly each row I actually did not mention each row when I want to talk about the mirrors. But, you know, they’ve had they’ve had parades there for the football team. And even before that, the Supersonics are now left them, and the cracking or cracking it there. But the murders are an interesting franchise in that way. That to your point, we play them a couple times. They feel like they play on Mars, right? Like, not just all the West Coast teams, but it feels like you know more about the angels. You certainly the A’s are in the news for their awfulness. And I mean, I had a guy in the beer garden. So you’ve got two things pitching and whether the A’s were actually going to Vegas or not. And I don’t, you know, I, the mariners go to sleep and you don’t feel them. And then you look up, you’re like they’re in first place. They never really win. I mean, they’ve had years where they’ve been incredible during my lifetime winning, you know, 115 games or whatever crazy stuff was years ago. But they’re perennially trying much like maybe like the Rangers before they won last year, sort of on the cusp of, well, maybe this will be their year, and they have a couple of players and but they’ve they haven’t been much over 20 years, much better than the Orioles have been since the Griffey a rod breakup.
Luke Jones 07:30
Yeah. I mean, I think what’s so interesting when you bring up the Mariners and you know, I think back to what was it last October when Jerry dipoto. It was last fall, I can’t remember where it was exactly what when it was exactly, but he kind of talked about their philosophy. And he made a comment that their goal for the long haul is basically to win. I think it was 54% of their games on an annual basis. And with that logic being that’s going to land you in the postseason, semi frequently, right. I mean, pretty frequently, especially in the system, three wildcards and all that. And some years, you’re gonna be a little bit better than that some years worse. But, you know, he kind of made that comment. And it’s kind of the it’s the mindset of contending every year, not in the sense of, we’re trying to win 100 games in a regular season, but to just get in to just get in and roll the dice and basically do what Arizona did last year, right? To do what the Phillies did a couple years ago, right? When the, you know, the Phillies, we think of them as this juggernaut now but you think back to where they were when they fired Joe Gerardi and they were struggling in late May. And Rob Thompson takes over and they just they played really good baseball the rest of the way and think they want 88 games that year, whatever it was, but Jerry dipoto talked about this last fall, and it got a lot of negative publicity from the standpoint of you’re trying but not trying your hardest and it’s kind of that whole mindset. But if you’re Mike Elias or Jerry dipoto Or it’s kind of funny to bring this up, because most GMs are are analytically inclined now, but you kind of think about it through the lands of wind probability and just giving yourself a chance every year given your self a chance to roll the dice you know, get getting to the table when you’re gonna roll the dice and that’s kind of how the mariners have proceeded you know, they don’t spend a ton of money although they’ve given out some big contracts over the years and this year is a perfect example you look at that team. If they’re able to hold off the Astros them compelling at the same time, their offense is so bad that you feel like okay, they might be able to hold the Orioles to three runs in a postseason series or hold the Yankees to three runs in a postseason series in a game but they may only score one or two even if they’re not going up against the stud pitcher because they just their offense is that inept. So, yeah, they’re an imperfect team. But they’re a team built with the mindset of dipoto is talked about this, they’re gonna they want to be decent enough every year to give themselves a chance to get in the postseason. And then they’ll see if they’re this year’s Diamondbacks, or this year’s Rangers or whatever. So I’m not saying that that’s the best way to try to win. Well, I
8Nestor J. Aparicio 10:24
was gonna say, I was gonna get some, as we’ve done an hour on trades here this week during the holiday and the Orioles playing in the middle of the night, and whether they’re going to fleece their minor league system, and how far is too far to be in? Dude. They’re in the playoffs already. Yeah, the orange. The Orioles are in the playoffs already kind of sort of, in their mind. So they don’t really have to do anything. And part of that is, we did give ourselves a chance to win. We have Corbin burns, that that that’s that is our chance to win that we don’t need to have two of them this year to deplete ourselves. Three years from now when we have to pay rutschman 40 million and Henderson 50 million. And maybe Rodriguez is getting 28 million and arbitrary. Who knows, right? Like that? They would say, Well, you know, we better win. Now. We just better play in October. Yeah, we play in October, it’ll be good enough. I don’t know, man. The Ravens haven’t really eaten on that. And the NFL is a little different with salary cap and different things like that. But this is sort of an unlimited time for a 74 year old owner, who clearly is getting his rocks off dancing on the dugout and hanging out with Joan Jett. And like all this stuff, that winning and loading up and the urgency, I’m gonna write that word down urgency, and I gotta make get that in my notes. It where’s the level of urgency? And I don’t know, it’s still very nascent, new and young, for the owner for the team and young guys. If they go get their ass kicked and get wiped out after winning 104 games and beaten the Yankees, even with as comprised, you would say what was a good year and we’ll try harder next year. I mean, look, man, we’re in Baltimore, where the we are, especially on a baseball side. I’m not even talking about the wire, or anything you see on Fox 45, or schooling or any of that. We are as as Oriole fans, not only Ravens fans, but as Orioles fans, we’re used to sort of settling for less and trying to do more with less and like, that’s an easy thing to pitch. And in Seattle, where they haven’t won anything. That’s an easy thing to pitch. They can’t pitch that in a lane. So club seats at Dodger Stadium, right? I mean, already, Moreno has got that problem out there with trout and having lost their tiny and all of that, that all the alors off. The Mets and the Yankees are always fighting for who’s got the brighter, shinier object to get attention. The Orioles have everybody’s attention here and to your point. Look, Angeles is that we got a new owner, they got all these young players, they’re in first place. It’s already a gift. They don’t have to win the World Series. They just need. It’s already fun. You can make that case. It’s a lot more fun than it’s ever been. I’ll make that case right now. Yeah,
Luke Jones 13:07
and but but you also just mentioned the Yankees, the Mets and the Dodgers. The Dodgers have a World Series in the weird 2020 abbreviated bizarro baseball season. All the other red regular season success and all the money they expend. They haven’t won any other World Series. The Yankees haven’t won a World Series since 2009. The Mets? I mean, my goodness, it’s almost been as long for the Mets as it’s been the Orioles. Now they’ve gotten to a couple worlds here, you know, they’ve gotten to a World Series, but a couple of them. But again, you can do all those things, and still not get there. And that’s this kind of goes back to what I was saying about Jerry dipoto. And what the mariners have done. And I’m not saying that that’s the right way to do it. Let me be clear about that. I’m not trying to celebrate that I’m trying to throw out there different ways of roster building. That’s why That’s what they
Nestor J. Aparicio 13:56
would say if they don’t make a deal. They say we’re not giving away Norbi and Jackson. Hmm. I mean, that’s all I said to say last year was they wanted holiday. All right, and the story and if he leaks that to the media, and that becomes a story, we’re not giving holiday up, then nobody’s pissed off that they didn’t do it for DCS, you know, I mean, so like, really easy. And these guys like to play PR as you find out on the inside. And I find that on the outside, that whatever they say it is what they’re gonna say it is, which is why they’re not saying we’re going all in and all that because it’s all I went through this with Orlando Brown and get his lawn cut. Everybody already perceives that they could do more with their farm system than anybody else in baseball can do. And the answer to that would be Jerry dipoto and sigma delta reach cards for living with value and tell Mr. Rubenstein, who’s a money guy. We’re already all in. We’re in the playoffs. We have Corbin burns, we have Grayson Rodriguez. These are the good times you don’t need to give away 2026 is starting lineup in order to do this. And look man MacPhail told the old man before Flanagan passed. Why feed him steak when they’ll eat hamburger. Right now. They’re they’re sort of feeding them a hamburger that smells like filet mignon. You know, like, because they’re paying for hamburger, and they’re getting filet mignon. You know, so are they getting shut down free? Oh, yeah, actually, they’re getting Kobe, you know, prime, you know, like, literally when you’re winning 101 games and doing it on $40 million of payroll ownership would say, why do we need Verlander or Scherzer? And why do we need to make Corbin Burnes, the highest paid pitcher in the land. And there’s a lot of restriction of salary in baseball. And I would never, ever think they all get together and have a book on these sorts of things. But part of the book of Steve shoddy was, we don’t give quarterbacks guaranteed contracts here, part of the book for some of these owners is we’re small market, we can’t afford, you know, we can’t afford, and we’re just going to do it this way and sell it. And that’s part of the photocell into his fan base in Seattle, like we’ve been around 50 years, we sell as many tickets as we we opened the door to Asian, we’re not rich yet. And we’re not that team making that kind of money. But it’s an easy way to sort of lower the expectations to say we’re never going to spend like the Dodgers or the Yankees. And because of that, we have to do it on the cheap. And because of that we’re not giving Jackson holiday pick a name. We’re not given that guy away this month. Yeah.
Luke Jones 16:33
8And and look, I mean, this is also why when you expand the playoff field, the cynics out there, say, well, now you’re as much as you’re trying to sell it, you’re trying to sell this bill of goods that oh, well, more people will be are incentivized to try to make the playoffs? Because there’s their three wildcards now? No, it can be the exact opposite where you say, um, why am I going to have a $200 million payroll If 85 wins, probably gives me a really good shot to be that third wildcard and we’ve seen it Arizona was wildcard last year, Texas was a wildcard last year, the Phillies were a wildcard the year before that and got to the World Series. So again, these arguments can smell nearly as good as the Orioles do on the fourth. Right. Right. And that and that’s the whole point like you look at this, and that’s where, for me again, it’s the middle ground. Yeah, they’re going to add pitching. And yes, I want them to add pitching. Yes, yes, they need to add pitching. But again, what exactly are you going to add? What is available? What are you willing to give up? There is a middle ground there. And Michael is we’ve seen this over and over now we should at least know this much. I don’t know where David Rubenstein is in terms of what he sees for the payroll and where it’s going to go in the coming years. But what we should know about Mike Elias at this point in time, is that he is not going to completely neglect the future. Right. I mean, we saw this two years ago when mathematically, they did have a chance to be a wildcard team in 22. But they saw a good opportunity to deal tre Manzini and the return on that was good and there’s still some. When you look at someone like a McDermott in their system who might help them at some point in time, I’ll be it maybe as a bullpen guy. But yeah, they did that
Nestor J. Aparicio 18:20
they did. Jorge, they traded for mal castle as the better player over the next 36 months. And he was Yeah, absolutely. And they didn’t even see O’Hearn coming across over the hill.
Luke Jones 18:31
Right on top I cashed by and Ryan Oher, by the way, um, you brought him up, I want to give him five seconds of love all star finalist in the pool for him. I mean, what a great story Ryan O’Hearn has been and he’s a good
Nestor J. Aparicio 18:43
human right, like he’s saying about me being locked out. And he he’s the one of the first guys if I had a press credential, I would go back in and say I hear you’re a good guy. My name is Nestor. Nice to meet want to
8Luke Jones 18:57
hear and it’s just it’s a good story. I
Nestor J. Aparicio 18:59
mean, this was a guy who for years it did not work out in Kansas City for him and basically given away the Orioles at one point outright those guys are the most humble. You know, the Jamie Moyers in my experience through sports, that guys that tried hard and barely made it or get there like this kid, it’s 31, the Reds 34 and a Red Sox, whatever. There’s a humility and failure in baseball, that when you’re a number one and you don’t make it, you’re a different person. I and I find that because baseball is hard, man. It’s so hard.
Luke Jones 19:38
It is I mean it’s a sport of failure. I mean, that’s why I was saying a week ago when the Royals were losing five straight I was saying Guys, this happened so I mean, I saw I heard more than a couple players this past week even make the the analogy use the analogy of it’s no different than when you’re a hitter and you’ll go through a stretch where you will have Absolutely stting the ball, but it’s going right to a defender and your result is nothing but you know your process was good. And on the flip side, you’ll bloop a few balls in where you did not make good contact whatsoever. You don’t really feel that good about your process. And what happens it finds grass in the outfield cheapen, it’s no different for a baseball team again over 162. And that’s why I said the key for the Orioles in that stretch. And you know, we’ll see they want four or five since then was not turning a five game losing streak into a six and 14 three week stretch. That’s where that becomes a problem. You dropped five in a row in 162. That’s barely a blip on the radar. But if you have a bad three weeks that stems from that, then that’s a different story. So But going back to the point I was making with Mike Elias and the big, big picture, we saw this, they dealt Manzini, they dealt Jorge Lopez who I said it at the time, I didn’t love that deal. But and part of that was Jorge Lopez had some club control left, but they got younger Cano where he is presently not was not standing still. You sign off on that, based on what he gave them last year alone and where Jorge Lopez is, at this point, his career two years later, so they got him and they also got Kate Povich in that deal. Who is uh, maybe, you know, I’m not saying he’s a long term answer, but he’s at least a maybe so alias at that point in time. Now they’re, they’re in a bar different, you know, captain obvious statement here. They’re in a far different place now than they were even two years ago. But the point is, Elias isn’t just going to have complete blinders on that 2024 World Series or bust. There’s a middle ground here and you’ve thrown out names. Jackson holidays, not the same guy as Conor Norby. Right? Kobe Mayo’s not the same guy as Kyle sours, right, you have lots of assets in your farm system, that you can trade that guys that are either blocked, or guys that are maybes, or guys that are good prospects, but not legendary prospects and legendary is not the right term. But we know Jackson Holliday is a really unique, really special prospect. And by the way, I’ll throw this out there. A year ago, at this time, Grayson Rodriguez was in the minor leagues. And we were we recall how important Grayson Rodriguez ended up being in the second half to the Orioles and their playoff run and that he started game two. So Jackson holiday still has an opportunity to make a big impact on this year’s team. Same thing goes for Kobe mayo, you know, even though it’s a little more challenging, figuring out by the way, 4073
Nestor J. Aparicio 22:35
8games to under 51 at bats to 75 average, he said seven home runs 13 doubles. Not really good. Yeah, I mean, yeah, yeah. That’s a major league baseball player you gave away. Yeah. You gave a major league baseball player away.
Luke Jones 22:52
And hey, but the Orioles got Corbin burns and Corbin Burns has done has done everything they could have reasonably expected. With trades I know we always look for the example where you fleece a team. But more often than not, you’re perfectly fine with it working out with both sides. For one thing, that team might be more willing to work with you in the future if they feel good about the trade that they made with you. So he says there’s always some of that but look, even if Joey Ortiz had stayed. Where was he going to play? Now? You could say okay, well Jackson Holliday is struggling and Joey Ortiz could maybe would be starting maybe. And you know, you’d still have Westberg and gunner in the infield. But again, at that point in time, they thought Jackson Holliday would be their starting second baseman at this point and a month from now he still could be right so so let’s let’s not jump to conclusions there. But But again, it speaks to that your your Joey Ortiz wasn’t regarded as Jackson Holliday or Kobe May I mean, he was a top 100 prospect and you know, multiple publications but
Nestor J. Aparicio 23:55
wasn’t like a given holiday. Westberg and Henderson that’s that’s the next five years.
Luke Jones 24:00
Exactly. I mean, that’s, that’s where and that’s where it’s tougher, like Connor Norby you kind of, if he’s going to stay in Baltimore, he’s gonna be a utility guy, right? We talked about this, Matteo, you know, two years ago, people thought, oh, maybe he’ll be a starting shortstop, not a superstar. But you know, Mateo, now projects as a utility guy, and that’s fine. You still need bench players, you still need useful pieces off the bench. So you know, they have pieces to make moves. At the same time, Mike Elias is still going to look at the big picture. He’s not going to ignore that. I think we know that much. Now. I mean, we should we all were here and watch 2019 2021 And you know, the first couple months are really 22 Even with the way they built the roster. They were looking at the big pictures. So you know, we’re gonna see how it plays out. But I want to go back to Seattle for just a moment. Because I even heard a few people throw this out there, Ned, if there’s actually if If you want to talk about an off the beaten path, but actually kind of a logical trade partner, and it would be the Orioles and the mariners looking at their major league rosters right now and then looking at the CIS at their respective systems, if you’re the mariners, wouldn’t it behoove you to trade some of your pitching for some offensive help? And if you’re the Orioles, you would say, you know, is there someone you could deal them where you could get some pitch of? I doubt it’ll happen because you rarely see deals like that where you would trade major league or for Major League or between two contenders. But that’s why I joked at the beginning of our segment where you kind of look at the Orioles offense, and the mariners pitching, and looking at their starting pitching, you’d say man, is they’re trying to work out there. Because these two teams, I mean, you kind of look at it, what would they
8Nestor J. Aparicio 25:48
look at Justin Hayes or Cedric Mullins or Ryan mountcastle? Or any of these guys, and say, That guy’s gonna make our lineup this much better at this point? Because those would be the kind of Major League players you would you know, you’re not projecting kind of Norbi into their starting lineup, or even Kobe, maybe Kobe, Mayo next year for them. And you know, but yeah, they’re gonna be trying to get everybody’s trying to get pitching. Even the teams with pitching are going to try to get pitching, I think,
Luke Jones 26:15
well, they need offense, though. Again, go look, I mean, their offense is terrible. I mean, Julio Rodriguez even has a I mean, I’ve looked at his numbers going into the series. I mean, Julio Rodriguez, a slugging 327 is on base percentage is 297. I mean, this is supposed to be one of the bright young stars in the American League getting beat out at the Richmond for rookie of the year, two years ago, and like, what’s happened to him? And they’ve added a bunch
Nestor J. Aparicio 26:43
mixes like that this time in 25. We got problems, right? We can’t this isn’t being possible at this point with the rutschman 10 years into this. I’ll
Luke Jones 26:52
8just this offense in general, I mean, even even the guys that have struggled right? I mean, go look at Austin Hays numbers since he came back from the Isle now he’s a fourth outfielder platoon type at this point. I think we all agree with that. But he’s been much better with the bat Cedric moments. The last two and a half weeks has been much better with the bat Colton Couser has looked better the last week or two. I mean, we’ve seen Heston Karstadt had a huge weekend, you know, the Grand Slam, we didn’t even talk about it on Saturday night. Every
Nestor J. Aparicio 27:17
night. There’s a different star. That’s the magic of boreal baseball. And
Luke Jones 27:21
more specifically, this is where I keep emphasizing to you and I mean, I remember weeks back at fade Lee’s I had the conversation with you about the Orioles and you know the complaint that they’re not walking enough. And you know, we’ll hear that at times. Although at the Richmond’s walked way. Since we’ve had that conversation, his walk numbers have gone back up again. But this is where I keep reminding everyone look around major league baseball. The Orioles offense, and what has been such a depressed, run scoring environment has been so good. It’s not perfect. I’m not suggesting that. But their run scoring and their ability to slug and hit for power. And yes, homeruns but also doubles and triples and they run the base as well. We all the things we know they do. You know, the pitching part of it aside for just a moment. If
Nestor J. Aparicio 28:09
you’re gonna beat this team in October, you better bring some pitching in here. Yeah,
8Luke Jones 28:13
exactly. Because and that’s where I keep, you know, as we’ve danced around the whole October thing and pitching, pitching pitching, yes, they need to add more pitching. And I agree. But so much of what’s going there October fate is going to lie in who they already have, right? I mean, yes, in a perfect world, you’re going to bring in a starting pitcher, that’s really going to move the needle for you and be that legit two slash three kinda guy to go with burns and Rodriguez. But
Nestor J. Aparicio 28:39
in the mind of the fans, we beat the Yankees and take a couple of days off. That’s, that’s ideal, right? Right. I don’t know if it’s ideal or not. But ideally, we’re going to bring in pitching to be a better team in August and September to be one game or one half game, at least for this week for the year. And now better than the Yankees so that you are that would give you your best chance to win, right? I mean, sigma Dell would, the probability of that would be That’s our best chance is to take a series off and escape to the next round. I guess I mean, we’ve yet right. We haven’t even agreed on that yet. Even though the math agrees on that. Right. Yeah.
Luke Jones 29:18
I mean, I think some some recency bias definitely plays into that because you’re the most recent examples. Yeah, Texas and Arizona. They’re wildcards the Phillies two years ago. They were a wild card, but I think over the long haul, yeah, you’d still rather avoid even if you’re playing at home, you’d still rather avoid a best of three I mean again, this also speaks to just October is unpredictable. It really is. I know that so many fans are so longing for a World Series in a deep deep October Ron and I get that I mean, I’m 40 years old. I’ve said it over and over look at my gray hair and my temples. I’m
Nestor J. Aparicio 29:55
8an All I wanted was a competitive baseball team like we skip that. Yeah. Right, right, but
Luke Jones 30:00
but like the whole thing, like, you know, I’m 40 years old, I’m gonna be 41 That’s how long it’s been that since the Oreos won the World Series and all that, but boy, there’s just so much so many variables at work here that you can be the best team on paper. The Dodgers have been that how many times over the last eight, nine years, and they have won World Series in the weird COVID year where they opened up the postseason of what 16 teams total or whatever it was. So you know, it’s just there’s a lot of unpredictability. But going back to the Orioles offense, you know, if they’re gonna make this deep run, yeah, they need to add some pitching. But I guarantee if we’re, if we’re, in late October talking about the Oreos in the World Series, they probably hit the heck out of the ball. And yeah, Corbin Burns has been Corbin burns, and Grayson Rodriguez has maybe looked like, hey, we might lose Corbin burns in a couple of weeks. But Grayson Rodriguez is looking more and more like, maybe he’s not Corbin burns, but he could be at a heck of a, you know, number two slash maybe lower end number one, whatever it is, but, you know, but the point is, they’ve got a lot going for them and so much of it does pertain to their bats. And that’s where I think it is interesting just to see how it’s gonna play out. And and that’s why I brought up to you I think it was last week, when I said, when you’re looking at these trades don’t completely dismiss the possibility of them trading a position player a hitter from their major league roster, because part of that would also be to kind of clear the deck a little bit. I mean, I’ve said to you, I really do think the Orioles want to try to find a path to get Kobe Mayo to the major leagues. I mean, that’s kids get serious bad. I mean, serious now, that might be that they ultimately trade them, or it might be that they trade. I don’t know Ryan mountcastle. And I’m just throwing him out there, right, because he’s someone of consequence, whereas Austin Hays is more of a reserve, you know, number four outfielder kind of guy at this point in time, at least in terms of perception. But, you know, that might be the move. And I’m not saying it’s at the deadline, but it might be this winter, for example. So, you know, the point is, they have so many different possibilities here. Because you do have such a deep system, because you do have such a crowded Major League roster in terms of, you know, just how everyone gets playing time. And you know, I think one of the I’ve talked about it since spring training you and I’ve talked about it since spring training. What’s this outfield gonna look like the rest of the year? Right? I mean, sometimes they are playing every day, hitting homeruns. You know, he’s on pace for 40 home runs season. So he’s in the lineup every day, whether it’s in right field or DH, but everyone else, it’s kind of like, okay, what’s the matchup that night? How are you guys feeling? Who needs a night off? You know, who’s been hitting the ball the last week who’s been scuffling the last week, I mean, you have that it’s a good problem to have. But it’s a challenge nonetheless, for Brandon Hyde to kind of get all these guys into the lineup and try to, you know, you want to go with the hot hand, but you also don’t want to bury anyone and have anyone sitting on the bench too long. So, you know, we’ve seen that with hours. We saw it with Karstadt earlier this year, since coming back, her staff has been playing a little more regularly and they’ve gotten a return. I mean, he hit the big grand slam on Saturday night. So, you know, these are all good problems to have, but they’re trying to sort this out. And there’s the gains for 2024. But there’s also the long haul in terms of trading the right guys keeping the right guys hoping that the prospects that you’re really putting your highest hopes into figure, you know, figure it out and are the real deal. You know, I mean for for every Adley rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, you know, you know there there are a couple guys where the jury’s still out certainly. But of all the guys they’ve drafted his would we consider any of them a bust yet, in terms of the Elias era know that to me, it’s TBD for for Colton, Couser and all the different testing couristan You know, and looks at
Nestor J. Aparicio 34:02
what they’re doing at this point that any of those guys could be a guy in October. I’m an old hockey head but it was a guy named John Druce many years ago that led the Capstone Eastern Conference Final who was a complete like Baltimore Skipjacks lifer kind of player who for three weeks scored eight goals and you know, like, I see Couser curse StatsD hours all of these guys as capable. I don’t know if they’ll be in the lineup because of Hayes and Mullins and experience and who’s hitting the ball better and where the pitching matchups are. I mean, I believed in cows or in April, I believed in canola last May. You know, I believe more in O’Hearn because I’ve seen a body of work and consistency. Then this mountcastle I’m going to be Dave Kingman one month and B date kingdom in another month in a you know in a different way. Right? I don’t I believe in the bats of all of these guys. I don’t know that I really believe in a lot of the RMS Right? Like, I don’t know that I’m loving Cole Irvin to be the guy that stands up and gives me six in October and game three, I liked the chances of mountcastle hitting three bombs more. So I’m with you all along than any of these players have shown any of them. They’ve all been stars, they’ve all had their helmets off. They’ve all hit big homeruns. They’ve all drank from the O’s in the dugout. We know what they all look like, I’m a believer in the offense. I mean, I really am. And I, I would concur with you that they could win a World Series just based on muscling up in October in general, and that their pitching could be okay. I mean, the pitching in 2014 was okay. I loved Miguel Gonzalez, I loved the way in Chen, you know, you know, I’m sorry, you let him some of these guys get away and not pay him. Not to mention scope. I was really wrong on scope. I want to say that a decade later, if we so were you. We were all wrong on that. But I mean, I remember how we did it back then. I remember where we were last year. I don’t know. You know, like Rodriguez and burns. To your point. It’s already a massive upgrade over what they went into last October with.
Luke Jones 36:07
Yeah, well. And it’s, it’s not even that it’s a massive upgrade. Because I mean, Kyle Bradish was great last year. And Grayson Rodriguez was really good the second half of last year now, Burns is an upgrade over Bradish. I don’t think it’s necessarily dramatic because Kyle Bradish over the last year and a half. And obviously now it’s he’s hurt. So it’s a moot point was excellent. It really was. But yes, Corbin Burns has more experience, you know, has a longer track record. And now you’re hoping Grayson Rodriguez, year two compared to year one, and he was really good second half of year one, you know, your hope and he has that experience. Now. Now it wasn’t a good experience when he got knocked around in game two of the division series, but you’re hoping he’s better for that in the same way that you made a mention up in a conversation where Eddie Murray and 79 but then Eddie Murray had no he had his you know his vindication in game five of of 83 when he hits two homeruns at the vet and all that so I mean, you’re always gonna have some of that but yeah, this team was built on its position player talent. We know that it’s been very deliberate. We talked about it year after year after year I mean, drafting college hitters and drafting college hitters and then yeah, mixing in a Gunnar Henderson and developing him right and, and drafting Jackson Holliday, one one out of high school, but knowing he was that much of a special talent and seeing him ascend, and now, you know, we need to see it at the major league level, but we will, presumably, because that’s how many people believe in him at this point in time and still do even even with his rough April that he had with his cup of coffee in the majors. But, but that’s where I again, at what point do you use more of this talent to go get what you need? And you mentioned 2014. The Orioles? Definitely. On paper. You look at Corbin burns and Grayson Rodriguez alone looks better than what they had in 14. Although those guys, especially the second half of that season, their starting rotation did a heck of a job for them. But what was the strength of that team? On the pitching side? It was their bullpen? You know, I I’ve joked with you, I’ve joked with people all year, it’s like man, if you could just go back in time if you had the time machine and you could drop the 2014 Orioles bullpen onto this roster. That’s all she wrote. Like I wouldn’t even be worried about adding another starter I mean, like sure you can add another one. But the bullpen with this offense
8Nestor J. Aparicio 38:33
I prefer the Royals but that’s okay. I mean right sure. Yeah.
Luke Jones 38:39
With them with what Wade Davis Kelvin Herrera and I can’t even remember who was the actual closer for that team. I’m drawing a blank but the point was they had Herrera and Wade Davis just to get to their closer and they were that good in the pen but you know that’s that’s why I’ve continued to say with the Orioles Yeah, add a starter I’m wholeheartedly agree you know what there’s no debating that anymore especially after Holland Holland there Yeah, sorry. But but that’s the thing like there’s seventh and eighth inning guys were so good that I forgot about their closer that year. But and he was excellent too. But that’s where I look at this and say yeah, they need another starter but boy they need a couple give me a couple one really high leverage arm and another really good arm you know at least a guy that you know give me an eighth ninth inning guy and give me a seven slash eighth inning guy you know in terms of the pecking order and then what that means
Nestor J. Aparicio 39:34
hold on here. Let Hollan 144 65 games 60s gradings Wade Davis era 1.00 He was 71 game 72 winnings, Herrera 141 70 games 70 innings so 7070 to win 60 Sounds like 200 innings flat out of the bullpen in a an average 68 games, and that’s every two and a half days. They were in there, right? And era baked in at about one, two all in for 200 innings of relief pitching of an era of one. Insanity. Insanity. No and no one will come close to that.
Luke Jones 40:21
8You bet you better be winning in the sixth inning. I mean, that’s what we said. Right. And that’s why I made the comparison. And that’s why Cleveland and we talked about the Guardians plenty last week fight Cleveland so dangerous. That bullpen I’m not putting it on the Kansas City level. But go look at those numbers. And we saw it if the Orioles were trailing. You know, we thought the first couple games in the series of Oreos were trailing in the late innings. That all she wrote. I mean, that’s just how it is so so yeah, I mean to bring it back full circle. Orioles. We’ll see what’s gonna happen with the trade deadline. But I love the offense. I’ll continue to say that and no, they don’t hit too many home runs. Go look at teams that have won in October by the way. They’ve hit homeruns go look at the gold look at what the Rangers did offensively last October. They had homeruns they hit the ball. So no matter who the Orioles acquire on the pitching side here over the next month because we’re here it’s it’s trade deadline month. You know we talked about it a lot for two months but the bumps finally here, but so much of it is still going to hinge on this. Gunnar Henderson looks like an MVP does Adley rutschman look like the all star catcher that he is. What’s O’Hearn and mountcastle look like? What does Anthony Santander look like? Does Jackson Holliday factor in Jordan Westbrook
Nestor J. Aparicio 41:40
go down the list with honors in scoring position.
Luke Jones 41:43
I mean, you got to do what you do best. Right. It’s why we’ve we’ve talked about it with the Ravens for the last couple of years. Lamar, two time MVP, he needs to look like it in January for them to break through, right. I mean, it’s, you know, it’s that’s a singular player, but baseball is more of the, you know, you need everyone to contribute, because you can’t have the same guy that over and over and over. So, you know, it’s, they’re still they’re in a really good spot. That’s the point. I keep trying to stress. Yes, we focus on the pitching and there’s so much angst over that. But team’s done a really good spot. I mean, they’re in first place, or 22 over 500 Even after their five game losing streak, you know, the Yankees have really come back to earth as well. It’s a reminder, it’s a long season, so we’re gonna see how it plays out but I’ll still take my chances with this lineup against anyone on a night by night basis. It’s just a matter of can you fortify the pitching and they’ve got the resources to do it. We’re just gonna see how it plays out. How
Nestor J. Aparicio 42:41
much should I offer for this Oilers Derrick Henry jersey. What do you think? I mean, it’s at 4999 I made a $20 offer I think I insulted the person it is really nice I mean it’s but it’s it’s a large I mean a modern large would be too big for me right? I mean, I have to put something underneath of it or whatever but I’m looking at it says love your blue right on it that you get another $5 Just for that I get it’s got the NFL shield on it. That’s five more bucks. Money goes to the Addams Family which is not that at the other Addams Family not too creepy in the other Addams Family. They they’re kind of kooky too unnatural. So I don’t know I’m working on I’m trying to get into the football spirit here at the Fourth of July. Oh hotdogs, hamburgers, lots of friends crabs and beer and crab cakes and friends for the Fourth of July had a great weekend. Celebrating with our friends at Heritage fair hope everybody’s safe during the fourth of July staying up late with the Orioles. Luke and I will be gathering next Friday the 12th the Yankees are coming to town don’t tell anybody but get downtown for that nice and early and enjoy your your your fourth responsibly with family. Please don’t do anything stupid with fireworks. It worries the hell out of me about all that kind of stuff. And we’ll see you on the other side. I’m Nestor he’s Luke we are wn St. am 1570, Towson Baltimore. And we never stopped talking Orioles baseball Baltimore positive and staying up late on the West Coast.
