The Orioles will reach the quarter mark of the 2025 season this week.
That a weekend series victory over a last-place club felt more like an uplifting development than a simple expectation speaks to how poorly this campaign has gone. It was the Orioles’ first road series win of the season and just their third series victory overall, leaving Baltimore tied for the fourth-worst record in the majors with a 15-24 mark entering Monday.
FanGraphs now projects an 8.3% chance of the Orioles making the playoffs while Baseball Reference’s projection is down to just 1.2%. Yes, 4 1/2 months remain in a 162-game marathon and we can point out plenty of clubs in the history of the game that overcame a bad start, but we’ve also noted how little margin for error this club now owns the rest of the way to carve out even a decent chance to secure a wild-card spot.
So, what can we take away from the weekend other than acknowledging someone had to win a series between two last-place clubs?
The best news was the return of de facto ace Zach Eflin, who overcame a rocky first inning to log five frames of two-run ball and record the win on Sunday. The Orioles will want to make sure there’s no lingering soreness or issues related to the lat strain that cost Eflin, 31, just over a month of action, but his healthy presence is a major boon for this rotation.
And while Baltimore’s starter ERA (5.55) was still an abysmal 28th in the majors as of Monday, could the rotation be threatening to stabilize — at least a little bit — with Eflin and first-year sensation Tomoyuki Sugano leading the way and Dean Kremer having logged back-to-back seven-inning starts? Of course, what to expect from Kyle Gibson or Cade Povich is another story. Short of adding healthy versions of Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez later this summer, the rotation’s upside remains limited, but that doesn’t mean the starting pitching can’t improve.
Another encouraging development from the weekend was Gunnar Henderson looking more and more like himself as he homered twice and added two other extra-base hits in the two wins in Anaheim. The 23-year-old has now hit in 14 of the last 15 games and owns a slash line of .333/.375/.583 over that stretch to raise his season on-base plus slugging percentage from .623 on April 24 to .779 after Sunday’s 7-3 win.
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The entire offense must improve, but the Orioles need their young stars to play like stars to turn this season around.
As others have noted, the rest of May feels pivotal to Baltimore’s chances of reversing its early-season woes. While a nine-game winning streak would put the Orioles back at the .500 mark by the middle of next week, expecting such a feat from even the best team in baseball isn’t realistic, let alone a club that has yet to win three straight games in 2025. That said, chipping away with series wins to go in the neighborhood of 12-7 against six non-juggernaut opponents would put this club within five games of the .500 mark as the calendar turns to June and others are expected to return from injuries as the summer advances.
If such a finish to May is too much to ask, then the Orioles very likely don’t have what it takes to make something of this spiraling season, which will lead to much tougher conversations and decisions the rest of the way.
Rutschman still not shaking off 2024
Adley Rutschman’s nightmare second half of 2024 was supposed to be a distant memory after he homered twice in the Opening Day win in Toronto.
Instead, he owns a .188/.288/.281 slash line in 146 plate appearances since that 12-2 win on March 27, leaving many to continue wondering what’s happened to the two-time All-Star catcher who finished in the top 12 in AL MVP voting in each of his first two seasons. In fairness to the switch-hitting Rutschman, his peripheral numbers do look better and suggest he’s endured some tough luck with a .219 batted average on balls in play and better Statcast batted-ball data and “expected” numbers than we saw last year.
But we shouldn’t have to look this hard for positives when it comes to the 27-year-old who was chosen to be the face of a rebuilt franchise when he was selected first overall — one spot before Kansas City’s superstar shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. — in the 2019 amateur draft. And you have to wonder how the extended lack of success is impacting Rutschman mentally when he owns a .197/.285/.304 slash line in his last 432 plate appearances dating back to last July 1.
8That’s much more than a slump, and it’s also growing more difficult to chalk up last season’s finish to injury concerns as so many tried to do.
At the very least, one can fairly question why Rutschman continues to hit so high in the order until the real numbers more closely resemble the “expected” ones.
Waiting on Westburg, Kittredge
While manager Brandon Hyde revealed Friday that lingering hamstring soreness would delay the timetable for infielder Jordan Westburg to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Norfolk, right-handed reliever Andrew Kittredge made his third rehab appearance on Sunday.
It’s unclear how many appearances Kittredge is slotted to make for the Tides, but it’s worth noting most of Baltimore’s relievers made six to eight appearances in the Grapefruit League. That’s not to say Kittredge — who underwent knee surgery in early March — needs to simulate a full spring training, but you’d expect the Orioles will want to see how he fares pitching twice in three days at the very least. He’s made one-inning appearances on May 4, May 8, and May 11, allowing a total of one run and six hits.
Signed to a $10 million deal over the winter, the 35-year-old Kittredge is expected to fill a high-leverage role, which will hopefully help a club ranked 27th in bullpen ERA (5.05).
