The earned run averages were even uglier than the Orioles’ 52-110 record to conclude the 2021 season.
Five pitchers in their mid-20s combining to make 57 starts and to throw 285 1/3 innings for Baltimore? You certainly hoped for much better than ERAs of 6.63, 5.04, 7.55, 6.75, and 6.67 from Keegan Akin, Bruce Zimmermann, Dean Kremer, Alexander Wells, and Zac Lowther respectively — at least from a few of them. Whether because of utter ineffectiveness or injury, the inability of anyone from a group — which also includes Mike Baumann — that was held in at least respectable regard to take a meaningful step forward was easily the most disappointing development of the 2021 campaign. It’s worth noting these arms all predated the arrival of general manager Mike Elias and the current regime, but it’s not exactly a glowing endorsement for their player development to see such an utter lack of success from these pitchers last year either.
With the Orioles set to run it back with some combination of this group filling out the back of their rotation while top pitching prospects Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall move closer to the majors, these incumbents are on notice. The clock is ticking on their opportunity to stick in the rotation when considering none of them are that young anymore.
“Some of those guys need to step up,” Elias told reporters in Sarasota on Monday. “That’s why we’re struggling right now is because we haven’t gotten a real cemented breakout from one of those guys. We still have high hopes for them and want some of those guys to click this year because it’s going to be tough if they don’t, and we’re going to have to move on to other people.”
Of course, it was Elias who said at the end of last season that it would be “very overly optimistic” to expect to compete in 2022 with only returning pitchers, but the only semblance of “external reinforcements” he added this offseason was 31-year-old right-hander Jordan Lyles, who sports a career 5.21 ERA and is essentially a more durable upgrade from Matt Harvey. That’s not exactly impressive work in the wake of the extraordinary struggles of last year’s rotation, but Lyles will slot behind No. 1 starter John Means in the season-opening rotation. After that, manager Brandon Hyde will hope to get enough functional innings to avoid sending a position player to the mound to finish games on too many nights.
Signing another veteran could have better stabilized the pitching staff and created more urgency in the competition for those final rotation spots, but we’ll see if patience pays off with a group whose late minor-league development was disrupted by the cancellation of the 2020 minor league season. Of those six names, only Akin had pitched more than 38 2/3 innings at Triple-A Norfolk through 2019 while Lowther, Wells, and Baumann hadn’t pitched above Double-A Bowie by that point. Of course, all 30 major league clubs dealt with such challenges over the last couple years — as well as the disruption from the lockout this spring — but a rebuilding organization undergoing such a dramatic transformation from one regime to another always figured to suffer a little more than most.
At the same time, former Rule 5 pick Tyler Wells has seemingly leapfrogged the aforementioned pitchers and will start the third game of the season at Tampa Bay on Sunday afternoon. Questions remain about how his mid-90s fastball, slider, and changeup will hold up in his first extended outings since undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2019, but a 4.11 ERA in 57 innings out of the bullpen last year warranted the opportunity. The 27-year-old pitched to a 1.59 ERA and struck out 14 batters in 11 1/3 innings of Grapefruit League action to earn a starting spot that’s expected to be more of a tandem situation with another bulk pitcher to open the season.
If he can succeed after such a tumultuous few years that included major elbow surgery and changing organizations, the excuse of a lost 2020 can only go so far for the others.
Set to start Monday’s home opener, the local boy Zimmermann is a sentimental favorite and certainly pitched at a more respectable level than the rest with a 5.04 ERA in 13 starts spanning 64 1/3 innings last season, but he pitched only twice after June 13, sidelined with a left biceps issue and then a freak ankle injury suffered in August. The 27-year-old lefty’s peripherals were worse than his ERA indicated after giving up 2.0 home runs per nine innings, so we’ll see if his pitchability continues to overcome not having overwhelming stuff.
Akin recently turned 27 and probably deserves to be on the shakiest footing of those making the Opening Day roster after posting a 6.63 ERA in 95 innings, especially after being the only one from the bunch to log a full 2019 season at Norfolk. A 5.10 fielding independent pitching (FIP) mark and a .326 batting average allowed on balls in play do indicate a bit of tough luck, but this also marked his second straight poor spring, making one wonder if the lefty is destined for a more permanent relief role sooner than later.
One of the main pieces of the Manny Machado trade, Kremer might be the most frustrating of these pitchers as his fastball-cutter combination has impressed at times before the 26-year-old right-hander comes unglued and is out of the ballgame before you realize it. Regardless, there’s just no way to sugarcoat a 7.55 ERA that included an unseemly 17 homers allowed in 53 2/3 innings last season. Like Akin, he seems destined for the bullpen without making major strides early in 2022.
Lowther — who turns 26 later this month — and the 25-year-old Alexander Wells shouldn’t be written off just yet after combining to make only 14 starts for the Orioles last year, but questions about their stuff will persist with both lefties beginning 2022 back at the Triple-A level. And neither can really argue with that assignment after posting ERAs north of 6.50 in their auditions last season.
The real wild card of this wave of pitchers is the 26-year-old Baumann, who received only a 10-inning cup of coffee in Baltimore last September after working his way back from a right flexor strain suffered in August of the previous year. With his elbow healthy, the hard-throwing 6-foot-4 Baumann is still one of the most talented pitchers in the organization, but it remains to be seen what kind of role the Orioles envision for the young man who shared the club’s 2019 minor league pitcher of the year honor with Rodriguez. Though he’d fit the profile of the high-leverage reliever some are projecting, you certainly wouldn’t want to give up on the idea of him being a starter at this stage, especially if a more defined schedule helps keep his arm healthy.
If last season was any indication, watching most of these pitchers isn’t going to be pretty to put it mildly, but even one or two stepping forward would improve the organization’s long-term outlook and make 2022 a little more palatable, especially with star catching prospect Adley Rutschman figuring to arrive in the coming weeks. The latter months of the season could be even more exciting with the arrival of Rodriguez and Hall, but you’d really like to see more fight and meaningful progress from these incumbent pitchers before Elias turns the page on the last wave from the former regime. An abundance of opportunity is still sitting right there for them.
But patience is wearing thin.
