A 4-6 start by itself doesn’t warrant too much concern about the Orioles.
Even the best teams will go through at least a few stretches like this over 162 games and look pretty bad in the process. The 2023 club that won 101 games started 5-5 while the last Orioles team with more wins than that — Earl Weaver’s 1979 club — started 3-8.
In other words, if you’re feeling dramatically different about the 2025 club than you did only a couple weeks ago, a deep breath is probably warranted. Or perhaps this is what you feared all along.
No matter one’s opinion, a slow start was going to be magnified after last year’s disappointing second half, the deflating Wild Cards Series sweep to the same team that won two of three from Baltimore over the weekend, and an underwhelming winter that included the free-agent departures of ace Corbin Burnes and All-Star slugger Anthony Santander. For a bit of perspective, however, Burnes has a 5.79 ERA after two starts with Arizona and Santander was batting .194 with no home runs for Toronto entering Monday.
It’s very early.
Still, it’s a hangover being nursed by frustrated Orioles fans at the very least. To what degree the events of the last nine months or so are impacting the current club is debatable.
Unfortunately, the injuries haven’t relented. That outfielder Colton Cowser was lost for at least six weeks before shortstop Gunnar Henderson even made his season debut was a frustrating blow. The health concerns have also persisted for the pitching staff with starter Grayson Rodriguez and top bullpen acquisition Andrew Kittredge headlining the list of those on the injured list.
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Seemingly everyone hated Sunday’s lineup that included middle infielder Jorge Mateo in center field — and misplaying a routine play into a triple in a three-run first inning — and right-handed bats Ramon Laureano and Gary Sanchez facing Kansas City left-hander Kris Bubic, who’s been a reverse-splits pitcher with more success against right-handed hitters historically. Manager Brandon Hyde drew the ire for those decisions, but after seeing lineup and pitching decisions so often siding with the conventional platoon advantage over examples of reverse splits or favorable matchup history for a few years now, I struggle whether to identify that as solely a Hyde thing or a glimpse into a potential organizational philosophy — right or wrong — that mostly dismisses reverse splits and matchup history as statistical noise. There are certainly samples of data that are too small or old to matter, but Bubic looked like a more obvious exception to that rule after watching his changeup give right-handers fits on Sunday.
It’s no secret that analytics-minded front offices have gained more and more influence over lineup construction over the last decade or two, so what are we missing here? If it’s really as simple as Hyde going against the grain of what many would assume the front office is suggesting, why does it continue happening when he ultimately answers to general manager Mike Elias?
At the same time, we must recognize the Orioles aren’t going to play the same nine players at the same nine positions in the same exact order every day. They have a few players at most who truly warrant being in the lineup every single day at this point, and two of them — Henderson and Cowser — have already missed time because of injury. Still, it’s perfectly fair to question the best way to go about resting regulars and sprinkling reserves into the mix, especially when it results in someone playing out of position as Mateo did Sunday.
Daily lineup debates aside, the pitching remains the biggest overall concern with the Orioles entering Monday averaging less than five innings per start and ranking 26th in the majors in starter ERA (5.62). The bullpen has fared much better ranking 11th in the majors in ERA (3.47) despite the brutal individual start from lefty Cionel Perez, who’s responsible for eight of the 14 earned runs allowed by Baltimore relievers so far. But will that group last if starters continue to struggle to get through five innings, let alone six?
Ultimately, we know this club was built to be led by its position talent, but the feast-or-famine offense has scored two or fewer runs in five of their first 10 games and the defense hasn’t been very good either, factors reminding of last year’s second half. And for all the handwringing about the reserves playing against Bubic, Henderson, Adley Rutschman, Westburg, and Tyler O’Neill — three All-Stars and the club’s biggest winter signing — went 2-for-16 with six strikeouts on Sunday.
It’s a new season and the Orioles aren’t the same team that they were a year ago, but a 4-6 start that’s already including injuries and inconsistent offense has felt too familiar.
There’s a very long way to go, of course, but the perceived 2024 hangover has increased fan angst and tamped down much of the enthusiasm for a new season.
The good news is it’s nothing a handful of wins can’t fix.
