DVOA creator and football historian Aaron Schatz tells Nestor the current greatness of Lamar Jackson
Aaron Schatz, the creator of DVOA, discussed Lamar Jackson’s exceptional season, highlighting his current dominance over other quarterbacks. Despite the Ravens’ 32nd-ranked pass defense and struggles with special teams, Jackson is performing at an elite level, leading the league in passing value. Schatz noted that Jackson’s performance is even more impressive this year compared to last, as he is carrying the team more single-handedly. He also mentioned the Ravens’ offense as one of the top 10 in NFL history. Schatz emphasized the importance of surrounding quarterbacks with talent, using Jared Goff and Kirk Cousins as examples of those who succeed with strong support systems.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Lamar Jackson, Ravens offense, DVOA stats, Josh Allen, defensive struggles, special teams, offensive line, Justin Tucker, FTN fantasy, betting picks, Super Bowl contenders, quarterback rankings, CFL mindset, offensive efficiency, Aaron Schatz
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Aaron Schatz
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W N, S T. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We are Baltimore. Positive.com. If you’re following us out on the web, it is a tis, the season for eggnog and football. We’re gonna have Raven scratch offs to give away throughout December. Beginning of December 4, we’re going to be a Cocos. The fifth, we’re going to be a Gertrude at the BMA. I am even doing a non crab cake oriented, at least for now, stop on the tour at ABI cheese of Little Italy. So we’re looking forward to that. We’ll be having the delicious Pawnee Rotunda down there. All that brought to you by friends at Jiffy Lube multi care. They have sent Luke back and forth from Pittsburgh to Owings Mills. You got Philadelphia coming in. The ravens are in the midst of all of this stuff. And I thought during the holiday here, I’m going to take a little break. We’re doing a bunch of music as you’re hearing it. Am 1570 in our incredible music archives, everything from David Bowie right on down to Gina shock and local things and all these Rock and Roll Hall of Famers. But Luke always brings up TV away. I don’t think this is a Monday where he’s not bragging on the Ravens. Very, very gaudy offensive trend setting, greatest ever numbers. And then we have to break down the 37 ranked, sort of 32nd ranked. Now, 37 because they don’t play that many teams yet, 32nd ranked defense in pass. And trying to make sense of all this, I’m going to the godfather of all things, DVO way. He is now doing a new thing. He’s moved around a couple times during the plague and but still, that the guy that I trust the most, because Jim Schwartz introduced me to him 19 years ago and said, This guy, Aaron shots, he knows things, and certainly it’s always good to have you on, I feel like Ellie, have you like, once a year, maybe twice a year, if it’s Super Bowl oriented. I’m sorry that Luke’s not here to nerd it up with you. So you have to deal with me, which is selling all your nerd science stuff and having it make sense to me so I can explain it to our audience. Because what Lamar is doing, nobody else does, and you’re trying to sort of put that into words and statistics in different ways, right? Man?
Aaron Schatz 02:01
Yeah, I’m good at selling my nerd stuff, I think, and I’m good at talking about Lamar Jackson this year, because he’s fantastic. You know, it’s, it’s funny, because So for folks who don’t know I, I am the guy who kept Lamar Jackson from winning MVP unanimously. Last year, I voted for someone else. I voted for Josh Allen. And this year, everybody’s all excited about Josh Allen. And I’m like, Are you kidding me? Lamar Jackson is the best player in the league this year. Like, it’s not even close this year, like last year, it was close. Like, this year, it’s not even close. Lamar Jackson is the best player in the league this year.
Nestor Aparicio 02:41
What? What would possess you to vote for Josh Allen now? What? What? What is the delineator in your mind? Because for lots of folks, it’s, I smell it, I see it. He looks like a Hall of Famer. It’s been a good year. Whatever. I mean, you’re way more and I dare I say, Holy nerdy like my my election friends in the way they do their science. Your science is, like, a lot more science based than anything any political pollsters ever put in front of me to be honest with
Aaron Schatz 03:11
you. I mean, they both look amazing. They both like, I mean, both of those guys do stuff that you’re just like, that’s like, not what human beings are supposed to be able to do last year, Josh Allen was just a little bit better than Lamar Jackson in pretty much every advanced metric that was out there, the Ravens were the best team in the league during the regular season. But it was because it was much more of a team effort, right? Defense was better last year. Special teams was better last year, this year, it’s Lamar Jackson who is better in every stat, and he doesn’t have the full team effort, because the past defense has struggled, because the special teams have struggled. They are good against the run, and of course, Derek Henry has been fantastic, but Lamar is raising the team up much more by himself this year than he did last year, when it was more of a total team effort. So that’s why I think Lamar is this year. So I have a stat we call defensive adjusted yards above replacement. It’s basically total value with the advanced stats, the gap in passing value. This is not even including the running the gap in passing value right now between Lamar Jackson and number two, which is Joe burrow, is larger than the gap between borough and number 12, which is Jordan love. That’s how good Lamar Jackson has been this year, before you even think about his rushing value.
Nestor Aparicio 04:46
Aaron shots is our guest. I’m gonna give him a chance to tell you about all the cool stuff that he does while we you and I always do go back and forth and debate, and I always know I’m wrong, which is the part that pisses me off the most with all you science related people. Um, the thing I would say to you, and this is to rest on my own, pat myself on the back, because a year ago, last week after the trading deadline, Luke and I had gone back and forth in October about their running game and Dobbins not being right. And who is this Keaton Mitchell guy? And Aaron shot says the DVO laser, the greatest offensive and I’m like, you know, would make them better? Derek, Henry would make it better. And I actually wrote that out on the internet. We have the receipts, and he did, and I said they would be unstoppable with him. So now you’re giving me all of this. Well, Lamar is doing it. Lamar is doing alone. Lamar is doing Lamar ain’t doing it alone, bro. He’s not sure what are your numbers are and how you evaluate this, but it is amazing that he suddenly on, you know, the greatest path when he’s got this running back that except when they don’t put him on the field in a two point conversion in Pittsburgh with the game on the line. And, you know, why would you want the guy that could drag three guys across a two yards and have the fastest guy on Earth on the other side? Like, I don’t know, you know, I again, these are Todd Monken questions and where they are, but it certainly feels like when Derek Henry’s being used, when the offensive line isn’t holding, getting them into bow down and distances, second and 20s, not a hit, and it’s not a handoff, you know what I mean. And it changes everything they did against Pittsburgh last week. But it’s a great case study for how to slay the giant that you see in the Ravens offense.
Aaron Schatz 06:25
No, it’s interesting when I say that Lamar is not getting the same kind of help this year. I mean defense and special teams like on offense. I mean the Derrick Henry has been a big help, there’s no question about it. And Ronnie Stanley is playing better than he did last year, and the receivers are playing well, and Andrews is healthy, and that’s all good. And so on offense, he’s getting help. On defense, obviously, that’s where the problem is. Their offense is fantastic, even after the struggles that they had against Pittsburgh. I have their offense as one of the 10 best offenses that we’ve ever tracked through 11
Nestor Aparicio 07:00
games ever tracked not to for 35
Aaron Schatz 07:03
years, 45 years worth of stats. They’re one of the top 10 offenses. That’s how good they are. The difference is this year, usually, ravens teams are really good on defense and really good on special teams, and that’s been a problem this year. I don’t know what they’re going to do about Justin Tucker, because if you put him first of all, you’re not cutting him. If you put him on IR with some sort of made up injury, to try to get him right, whoever you bring in is going to be some guy with, like, a year of experience who you don’t trust anyway. So I think you have to just wait it out and hope that he gets right, but obviously it’s really costing the team. Aaron
Nestor Aparicio 07:46
shots is here. He is all think Steve VOA, he is the godfather of modern statistics in football. His work has been begged, borrowed, stolen, used, misappropriated, sometimes misrepresented by other folks. And get everybody to low down on where folks find you. Now, give them all of that, and then we’ll get back into this football thing, because it’s fun. Well, I’m
Aaron Schatz 08:06
on two sites. I’m on ESPN, still a good amount, but FTN fantasy is my main site. I know it’s called FTN fantasy, but we do a lot more than than fantasy. But if you’re a subscriber, you get all the DVOA numbers, including all the historical numbers. You get our DFS optimizer programs and all of our good daily fantasy advice. And you get all of our picks, betting picks, props and FTN goes far beyond the NFL. All I do is the NFL, but we have people who do every sport, including sports where there’s a real advantage because there’s less knowledge out there, like golf and women’s basketball, and we have really good records on those. So if you’re interested in that kind of stuff, you want to become a subscriber to FTN fantasy.
Nestor Aparicio 08:53
You know, with all the information you have, do you find that you can be more predictive than the from a gambling perspective? And look, you and I would have been thrown out of every relationship ever in the history of the sport. They already threw me out, and I didn’t even do anything. But the one thing that would have thrown me out if I was shaving points with Joe Flacco, because I knew he wasn’t playing this week, or he had a purple hip, which I knew and but you’re in a different space where, dude, you’re writing the form for the daily record, right? Like, you know, I
Aaron Schatz 09:23
wish I could tell you that I could beat Vegas, but the fact is, in my early days, I did, but now Vegas knows everything I know. The people who set the lines are very good at what they do, and my lines that I project are very much similar to what the actual Las Vegas odds makers set. So when you’re the odds and
Nestor Aparicio 09:48
picking the winners is different, dude, you and I can pick the numbers. Look at a form and say, This horse is going to be two to one. This one’s going to be 10 to one. Like I get that. I you know, I get the 14 is a number they put on. The Lions the other day, and they had to go and make it happen. But I would also say being predictive of it. I think if I actually did this and paid because I know enough about football and enough information and enough vibe of being around enough teams, I think I could be okay at picking something above 50% I don’t know where that would be. And I would think the more you know, in your case, the more you would lean against what the idiots are betting on and betting numbers the wrong way. That’s how every horseman I’ve ever every Dicker already would say, I go to Preakness because idiots bet and I get better value.
Aaron Schatz 10:34
Yeah, but no, it’s interesting, because people tend to think that the odds makers set the odds to try to even the money on both sides. But in reality, they they really do set the odds based on what they think is the probability, because they it works out best for them if the odds are as close to the real probabilities as possible. So there are times when, like 80 or 85% of the money will come in on one side, and they still don’t change the odds because they feel like those odds are really accurate, and they are. I just in the early days, I was a lot better at this than the odds makers were, and they’ve really caught up. Eric
Nestor Aparicio 11:12
Schatz is here. He’s caught up on all things. So catch me up a little bit on your science and educating our audience as to when Luke quotes you and quotes your work. In regard to Lamar, what makes him number one this year? That wasn’t last year that your blanket statement of he got more help from the team. I mean, look, Steelers had eight possessions in the first half on you last week. I mean, like crazy. How it changes the game. Down and distance changes everything, certainly for this offense. And as I’ve said many times to you and others, going back to 2019 dude, when you’re in second and one and second and two, and you’re never seeing third down at all, because you’re that efficient on first and second down, it it changes every single measurement you have, including just how they’re they’re setting records in your mind. They’re, they’re among the 10 greatest offenses in modern history.
Aaron Schatz 12:11
I call it the CFL mindset. You want to have a CFL mindset. You never play third down, like that’s the best way to play. If you can convert on the first and second down and never even get to third down, you’re in a good place, and Baltimore is just doing a great job of that this year. Okay, the best quarterback in the league under pressure is Lamar Jackson. The best quarterback in the league without pressure is Lamar Jackson. The best quarterback in the league from the pocket is Lamar Jackson. He’s just passing so well. At last year, he had a couple of stinkers, and this year, even the game against Pittsburgh, he really hasn’t had any stinkers. Every game has been good or great all year long. I mean, he said not his fault. Fumbles are not his fault. And that play with Justice Hill, where the linebacker took the ball away, and technically it counts as an interception, but it really was more of a fumble, because it’s not like there was a bad path, like Lamar Jackson is just he has been just on all
Nestor Aparicio 13:15
year. Well, the offensive line’s been a big part of that, and I know Luke and I spent months when they’re not jumping off sides. Well, I mean, we’re like Zeitler and and, you know, and Morgan Moses, the guys they they jettisoned. We didn’t know how this was going to work out. To your point, Ronnie Stanley has been a question mark for years, literally. And the the what zay flowers brings, what Derek Henry brings, what we thought Mark Andrews, likely what the tight end position would bring for them. Um, the defensive problems, struggles, breakdowns, have really led to maybe him even standing out more offensively in your in the way you value,
Aaron Schatz 13:56
yeah, and I don’t know quite I mean, how to solve the defense other than sort of waiting and trusting that defense is less consistent than offense, which means the defense is likely to get a little better. I mean, against the past, they’ve been fantastic. Against the run, they’re only allowing like 3.4 yards per carry, or something similar to that. It’s just the past defense, and it’s mostly the same guys as last year. So I don’t know what the issue is. I don’t know if the issue is Zach or I don’t know if the issue is just the natural inconsistency of defense, but it’s definitely been problematic.
Nestor Aparicio 14:37
We say natural inconsistency of defense. You say this at a level, going around the league and saying, Where is the league? What? Who are the good teams? I saw a very good Steelers team out there the other day playing with that Highsmith player. This is the time of the year where nobody’s got their full complement of what they you know, went to spring camp with, just in a general sense, from an injury standpoint. But I wanted to ask. About other teams, offenses, and the perception of quarterbacks that can or cannot win a Super Bowl. And I, you know, and specifically Jared golf, Kirk Cousins, you know, you know, the these, these players that are in this, the thick of it, this time around, and saying, how good are their teams, how good are their offenses, even seeing Russell Wilson, you know, win a couple of games, and then getting a look at it and saying, Well, he certainly don’t look fast. There’s certainly some issues there. Through that lollipop to Marlin Humphrey in the back of the end zone the other day, and saying, Well, they’re ahead of us in class, and when it comes around to January, you’re gonna be playing that game in Pittsburgh, much like buffalo, Kansas City, these other teams. But I’m also wondering around the league, what your statistics see with some other outlier players to say these, some of these teams are better than you think they are, or maybe they’re not as good as you their record indicates they are.
Aaron Schatz 15:51
We often talk about the idea that there’s three kinds of quarterbacks, quarterbacks you win because of quarterbacks you win with, and quarterbacks that you win despite, right and guys like Jared Goff and I think kirk cousins are really the top of quarterbacks you win with, rather than quarterbacks you win because of, because they don’t make plays happen out of structure the way that guys like Josh Allen and Patrick mahomes and Lamar Jackson do, but you can absolutely win a Super Bowl with one of those guys if you surround them with enough talent. And Kirk Cousins is not surrounded with enough talent, and Jared Goff is like, I mean, I suppose anybody who makes the playoffs has a shot, so I suppose Atlanta has a shot, but Detroit is awesome this year. Detroit just has so much talent. Both the players and the coaches are just so quality. And Goff is a guy used to write for me. Ben Muth said Jared Goff is like a JUGS Machine, like you point him in a direction and you tell him to throw, and he throws hard and accurately, but as soon as he gets off of that and he’s off of the structure, he breaks down completely. And Detroit, because the offensive line is so good and the receivers are so good, they do a great job of putting him in position to succeed given his skills. So absolutely like he may not be as good a raw quarterback as some of these other guys, but Detroit is. They are the favorites right now
Nestor Aparicio 17:33
anything in the modern era. Aaron, that’s a one, one you know, for any Baker Mayfield, for any of these guys, Trevor Lawrence, and I know, you know, Jury’s out on him and some other guys, but I mean, seeing what Sam Donald has done, seeing what Geno Smith has done after being given up on that there really is, um, there. There’s a time for any circumstance and a situation and a support system and a cast around all these people. If Patrick mahomes would have been drafted in Cleveland. I don’t know that it would have worked like this, right?
Aaron Schatz 18:03
Let’s go back in time. Jim Plunkett was the number one overall pick for the New England Patriots, and they were terrible, and he was terrible, and he got jettisoned, and then he found his way to Oakland with the Raiders, and he had more talent around him, and he won two Super Bowls. So this is not like a new thing that some organizations just can’t develop quarterbacks. Aaron,
Nestor Aparicio 18:26
appreciate you, man, thanks for always coming on and being the godfather of DVO way. Give everybody the elevator speech here for the holidays as to how they could be supportive of you and people like you that have really made football a lot more fun. For Luke, a lot more complicated for me. You scientists out there, but certainly have peeled back the game we all love and try to see it a different way. And every time I have you on and spend 2030 minutes with you, I see the game a little differently. I
Aaron Schatz 18:54
mean, get yourself an FTN fantasy subscription. Get one for your loved ones. Get one for your brother, your best buddy. You will win props. You will win Draft Kings and fan duel. You will learn more about sports, not just the NFL, but other sports. There’s just lots of good stuff. So FTN, fantasy.com is where you find my stuff in particular. It’s FTN fantasy.com/dvoa
Nestor Aparicio 19:19
you still get together, fight with tenir, doing podcasts. You gotta do
Aaron Schatz 19:22
podcast on Monday and Thursday. At 11am we do a live stream. People can ask us questions, and then the podcast comes out later in the day, if you search for the FTN shots at tener NFL podcast, yeah, he’s got his own sub stack that people should check out at Mike tenier, t, a n, i, e r, dot sub stack.com,
Nestor Aparicio 19:46
well, he shouted me out on blue sky over the weekend and told everybody in his audience, but they should follow me if they want to learn about Baltimore. So and I’m thinking, it’s just a crab cakes, there’s nothing with the football the kicking game here. Aaron shots, does all. Things football, you can follow him out at FTN, and when you hear Luke Jones yell out, DVO, a stats, this is the guy, certainly the guy to follow along as we’ve been following along for two decades now, you and me have been getting after this at some point, you know, well, I’ll find you, Jay gray hair, you’re going to convince me that Lamar is going to win the Super Bowl at some point in January, we get together here,
Aaron Schatz 20:22
coming down there, and you’re showing me around town.
Nestor Aparicio 20:25
That’s what gates dog, let’s go. Let’s do it. I mean, I am right. Whenever you want. You let me know. Hey, we might have some trouble playing playoff games at home here in January if they don’t pick up the pace. Aaron, right. So might not be
Aaron Schatz 20:39
coming. I may not be coming for a playoff game at home, but at some point I’m coming down that’s
Nestor Aparicio 20:43
cold as hell around here, that time of year, coming, coming summer, the I hear the Orioles are going to be good next year. He is Aaron shots, that’s S, C, H, A, T, Z, not like the shots brewery in Laverne and Shirley, but close. And yeah, we’ll do a brewery. We’ll do a beer as well. When I see shots, I think of LaVerne, Shirley the glove and me wanting a delicious ice cold Maddie bow. Although I don’t drink that stuff, I am Nestor. We are W, N, S T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. Plenty of sports this week as we get ready for some football. Plenty of crab cakes and our friends at the Maryland lottery giving out Raven scratch offs. And of course, if you love music, and I know Mike tenier does as well, tons and tons of music stuff that we’re throwing out at Baltimore positive, as well as at the mothership at wnst am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, where we never stop talking Baltimore positive. You.
