The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers play at least twice a year. Sometimes, they even meet in January. There is nothing better than the best rivalry in the NFL on a big stage for the holidays. Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the AFC playoff picture and the significance of Saturday’s big game on a path to the Super Bowl in February.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the AFC playoff race, focusing on the Ravens and Steelers. They highlighted the significance of the upcoming Ravens-Steelers game, noting the Ravens as 6.5-point favorites. They analyzed the health and performance of key players like TJ Watt and George Pickens, and emphasized the importance of winning both games for the Ravens’ playoff prospects. They also discussed the challenges of playing on short rest and the potential impact of weather conditions. Jones emphasized the importance of winning at home in the playoffs, while Aparicio expressed skepticism about the Ravens’ ability to win on the road in the playoffs, particularly against Buffalo and Kansas City.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
AFC playoff race, Ravens and Steelers, Saturday night game, Christmas Day game, Patrick Mahomes, TJ Watt, George Pickens, field position, Justin Tucker, home playoff game, road games, Super Bowl contenders, Kansas City Chiefs, Buffalo Bills, playoff scenarios
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:02
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore positive. Check us out. Out on the internet. If you are so inclined and you’re in the car in the Baltimore area, set a spot on your doll for us. At am 1570 we do come in crystal clear. I did listen on the way down to the airport. We get a little scratching Glen Burnie, but we come right back in in Severna Park, as well as going west out toward Frederick as well over the river and through the woods during this strange holiday week, football on Saturday, football on Wednesday, Santa comes down to chimney next Tuesday night, Luke Jones will be here to chronicle all of it. All it. Brought to you by friends at chicken nude multi care who power up our Maryland crab cake tour. On Tuesday will be at amicis in the afternoon. They do not have a crab cake. That’s not stopping me. Never stopped me before. Wednesday will be a Costas. They do have a crab cake as well as some crab Imperial I will be there all afternoon. Such a huge list of people are going to be joining me. Marty Conway, Sam Sessa, John Maroon. Seth Elkin during Pittsburgh week from the Maryland lottery. That’ll be good. Allen McCallum, Chris Corman, the sports editor of the Baltimore banner, where Luke and I eventually are going to have to go work. We’ll be there and on. Then on Wednesday, Gina shock is going to join us. Todd Schuler is going to join us. Pete ramondi, one of our great sponsors from up in Harford County, going to join us, as well as Calvin stadium. My seventh, eighth and ninth grade music teacher at Holly bird, as well as Pikesville middle school as well. Luke used to teach young people. They’re now older people, because he’s been doing this for 15 years. What are you going to teach me this week about schedule making, because I think of all the jobs I could get in life, I think I’ve lived my destiny to be the Baltimore sports guy that’s been banned that couldn’t even go to the press box on Sunday. And I admire the fact that you said I’m not going up there on Sunday. I got church. I’m like, good for you. But this schedule maker job as I remembered it, back in the sporting news era, I remember my buddy Paul atner, who I was, a co worker of mine went to New York and did this big sporting news piece. Was a centerpiece, which is the biggest thing you do in sporting news back in the day, on how the schedule is made. And back in the day, no computers, none of that. They had little it was like a war room that they did it on blackboards. Now they come up with this and this week to match Houston, Kansas City, Pittsburgh and the Ravens, thinking none of them would have anything catastrophic that would keep them from being playoffs. And I don’t think anybody thought Pittsburgh was a playoff team, and they scheduled this thing on Saturday and Wednesday. Kudos to the schedule makers here to keep this interesting, because I’m not one of these guys thinking they should ever play Saturday football or Wednesday football, and I know how you feel about Thursday football, but at least they, they hit the target right this year for scheduling, nobody can pitch the Pittsburgh. Going to use your schedule. Will you do easy with no everybody got to play on Saturday night for the season, and then they got to go play on Christmas Day for the season. So Luke, a big week ahead around here, and the Orioles don’t need to do anything, and they have it. They don’t need to do anything because we’re watching football, right?
Luke Jones 03:13
Yeah. I mean, a huge week, one of the biggest weeks that they’ve had talking about the regular season in quite some time. So look, I mean, late season Saturday games, that’s, that’s been part of the norm of the NFL for 40 years. Yeah, exactly. So that’s, there’s nothing new there. And the fact that they put a raven Steelers game there is not exactly shocking. In fact, it was funny watching some of the the fox promos talking about Raven Steelers Saturday. I mean, a raven sealers game being played on Fox never happened before, right? They’re, they’re excited about that. And not only do they get one, they get the most meaningful one we’ve seen in several years. So obviously, they’re happy about it. Look, you mentioned the schedule making process. I mean, it’s, it’s really this simple, make it work. Make it work, right? I mean, when it comes down to the NFL, for years, avoided playing on Christmas, other than when it was absolutely kind of necessary to do it. Well,
Nestor Aparicio 04:11
they gave it over to the NBA. Yeah, exactly. And the NBA just took it, right? And nobody watches the NBA. Well,
Luke Jones 04:18
I mean, people watch it, but not like the NF. No one watches anything like the NFL. We know that. And the league has said, well, well, we’re gonna, we’re gonna have games on a Wednesday afternoon on Christmas, even though, you know, usually Christmas meant, you know, if it’s on Sunday, you’d play most your games on Saturday on Christmas Eve, and then you’d have one or two games on Christmas Day. If it’s on a Monday, then it’s like last year, you have a couple games on but now they’re going out of their way to do it, and they’ve made, they made this little scheduling pod to your point, and it worked out nicely for them, because you have four teams that are relatively healthy. We’ll see about Patrick mahomes and the high. Ankle sprain for him, but certainly doesn’t look like, you know, it doesn’t look like he’s out for the year, right? You know, there’s no indications that there’s any concern about that. But part of that is also, Kansas City’s got a couple game cushion, right? I mean, I guess only one over buffalo, because Buffalo has the tie breaker. But they’ve afforded themselves a little bit of a little wiggle room, in the same way that Steelers have a little bit of wiggle room even after losing to Philadelphia on Sunday. But you know, this stretch is going to challenge these four teams. I think one thing we talked about with the ravens, with the late buy, with the how healthy they are, they should be well equipped to navigate this. Now, that doesn’t mean that they’re guaranteed to win both these games, but, you know, go, look at these other teams and when they had their buys, especially Kansas City and Pittsburgh, I guess Houston, you know, it’s kind of in a similar boat, but I think they’re, you know, if you’re the ravens, it sets up perfectly, right? I mean, as well as it can going on the road four days after you play the Steelers. I mean, that’s going to be a challenge, there’s no doubt. But well,
Nestor Aparicio 06:08
the Steelers played through their knees in Philadelphia late. The Ravens sat half the team in the fourth quarter on Sunday two. There’s a little bit of that that the Ravens got out of this thing less nicked. And we’re going to be talking about TJ watt all week, and it’s not even all week, it’s game Saturday. In regard to, are they going to be full strength going into this, they already had Pickens, right,
Luke Jones 06:29
right? I mean, and to me, Pickens is as big as as TJ watt, not because he’s as good as TJ watt, but because of how important he is to that Pittsburgh offense that, let’s face it, it’s short on playmakers, and they need as much explosiveness as they can get. So
Nestor Aparicio 06:46
watch out for Friar Muth across the middle in this defense. Oh, I’m not saying that. I’m not saying they’re
Luke Jones 06:51
devoid of it, but clearly, Pickens is a big playmaker, even if he’s a knucklehead, right? I mean, he’s certainly,
Nestor Aparicio 06:57
there’s a long tradition of knuckleheads at wide receivers, since Stallworth and Swan in Pittsburgh. You know, they were the last two sane guys. I think the Ravens have one of
Luke Jones 07:05
them now. And Deontay Johnson, so who, who, apparently, is coming back from from suspension. I mean, it sounds like he’s going to be there. We’ll, we’ll see if he plays. But, but, but, yeah. I mean, you look at this, look Raven Steelers is always a grind. It’s always a war. You know, use all your cliches and all your priors as far as the history of this rivalry, and it’s on a short week, so there’s a little bit of a challenge there more so for Pittsburgh, it looks like from an injury standpoint. So if you’re the ravens, you’re saying, hey, there’s no excuse, right? This team’s as healthy as it could possibly imagine being at this point in time. Go look at the Ravens list of IR players. The most notable on that list, Arthur millet, who is maybe at best, their sixth or seventh best defensive back when healthy, and Charlie Kohler, their number three tight end who had a role, but certainly not a critical role, in this offense. So, I mean, you can’t ask for more than that. I mean, even if, even if, what plays, you know, even a Pickens plays, they’re still in good shape and better shape than Pittsburgh on that front. So there’s no excuse you’re playing at home, right? You got to go, do go, take a care of business. Very,
Nestor Aparicio 08:22
six and a half point favorite at home this week, there are touchdown favorite,
Luke Jones 08:26
okay, I, I hadn’t seen that. If you would ask me, I would have said probably five, you know, but they’re probably taking into account Pickens and watt right now. The ravens are way healthier right now. So,
Nestor Aparicio 08:39
but, and as you, as you mentioned in one of
Luke Jones 08:42
our previous segments, you know, in the aftermath of this Giants game, that felt more like a scrimmage. So, so we haven’t talked a whole lot about the game, because they beat a lousy team. What do you want me to say? I mean, good. I’m glad they better have won, and they did. But when you look at this on paper, I mean, from the quarterback on down. And I say that not trying to diss Russell Wilson, but he’s not Lamar Jackson at this point in his career. He’s not even anywhere close to that. You know, Russell Wilson has his limitations. He’s played well relative to expectations, but Russell Wilson hasn’t been that MVP candidate, that MVP caliber quarterback in several years now. So all we
Nestor Aparicio 09:25
got to do is move the sticks every three plays, 10 yards, right? And then it really is that, and that’s their goal. That’s the way Pittsburgh’s gonna play it this week,
Luke Jones 09:32
right? But, but that, but that just speaks to you. You have a small margin for error. I mean, think about and, you know, let’s, let’s talk about that game a little bit. They coughed up the football at a terrible time. That was the turning point for them. You know, they an unforced error. They lit on a pitch so and they were, they were done, right? I mean, that cost them any shot they had, because that’s the style they play that when you’re a team that especially when you don’t have pickings on the field and you’re. Not going to get the the explosive plays as frequently you’ve got to you’ve got to play. You can’t be behind the sticks. You’ve got to play ahead of schedule. You’ve got to get positive yardage. You know, any play where you lose yardage is, is killer. We talked about the Ravens with the penalties, right? I mean, as much as it’s hurt the ravens, they’re so good offensively that they have been able to overcome it a lot of times you don’t want to do it, but when you have to, it’s nice that you can do it.
Nestor Aparicio 10:29
But these games become field position games. They become punt games. They become 1916 they become Are you going to make your kicks? Big time. Are you going to make your kicks? We mentioned Tucker because he made his extra point this week. It was the rage here two weeks ago. They didn’t play football last week. We still don’t know where we are, and Tucker’s going to have to make some kicks on Saturday afternoon. I mean, I don’t use any this isn’t a walkover game. This is a touchdown game, one possession game, and it’s a game where you’re going to stall at the 31 yard line, and it’s going to be fourth and five because the Steelers have a defense, and you’re going to have to say we’re going to kick a 4849 yard field goal. And are we going to make it or not,
Luke Jones 11:13
or are we going to go for it? Right? I mean, they’re maybe not fourth and five in that spot, but if it’s fourth and two, you might say you’re going for it and look, that can be a good thing or that can be a bad thing, right? I mean, go, go ask Dan Campbell. You know, the fourth downs that that work out, everyone loves them. The fourth downs that don’t work out, you’re an idiot, right? I mean, that’s, that’s what we see. So that’s why I’ve said with this Tucker dynamic, I’m fascinated to see how the Ravens have to tweak their approach. I mean, if it’s a 52 yarder and it’s fourth and three, I’m much more inclined to go for it now than you know, previous years.
Nestor Aparicio 11:58
Temperature at game time, Saturday, partly cloudy, 32 degrees,
Luke Jones 12:02
and we’ll see about the wind. We know the wind is tricky in that stadium. You know it can it tends to
Nestor Aparicio 12:07
swirl. Even worse on Sundays. Can be really cold here. Sundays can be the 20s here. Sunday so, so
Luke Jones 12:12
we’ll see. I mean, look, you’re not wrong. I’m not disagreeing with you, but my point is, if you don’t have that trust in Justin Tucker, and how can you at this point in time? Then, if those situations that might have been 7030 try the field goal, or 8020 try the field goal,
12:33
now it’s the 5050, situations where you say, Oh, we’re going to go for it. Or, you know, probably not too many instances of this, but you might punt in a spot rather than try a 55 yard field goal. So it’s just, it’s where they are, and that’s where, as much as we talk about breaking down this matchup, and okay, the ravens are better offensively, Pittsburgh’s better defensively. Pittsburgh has the better kicker. Boswell has been very good this year. You know, the rest of the AFC North has had kicking woes all over the place, you know, Cincinnati and Cleveland as well. But you know, Boswell has been fantastic. So in a game where, yeah, you do expect it to be close? I mean, look no further than the first meeting between these teams, Boswell made what, six field goals. Yeah, we forget that Pittsburgh didn’t score a touchdown in that game, and they won because they had the better kicker and the Ravens made mistakes and had a kicker didn’t make his kicks. So, you know, it’s, it’s a tiny margin for error in these games and and I think in a general sense, when you’re talking about two short week games like this, you’ve got to be on your P’s and Q’s. Guys are gonna be tired. You know, even with this bye week, it’s not like everyone’s going to be fresh. I mean, I don’t think so much Saturday. I think where you’re going to really see it these two, two teams are going to feel it. All four teams are going to feel it much more on that Christmas game, because you’re going to be talking about not just a short week, but then a really short week right after that. So everyone’s in the same boat. But I think first plane breakfast at home on Christmas day. You know, can’t say you got to get on plane and fly there, like, is my home healthy, right? Yeah, you’re asking a lot of the fans on Christmas Day to say to Little Johnny and my grandmother’s over at the house, we’re going to the Steelers. I mean,
Nestor Aparicio 14:18
yeah, yeah, I don’t we’ve done that here on Thanksgiving and Christmas and Christmas night and different things like that. I, I it. It’s a strange predicament. It really is, and it’s not something we’re going to talk a lot about, because the game matters. We’re going to be the game. But in this league, I I pine away for the old Houston Oilers in my childhood, of the Colts in the 70s, when times were simpler, because the league does so many things make me want to hold my nose. I find
Luke Jones 14:46
it and I still have not heard a good answer. I don’t understand why the games on Christmas are one o’clock and four o’clock. Why? I mean, we’re talking about and I understand not, you know, it’s not 100% of the population that celebrates Christmas. I understand that, but it’s a overwhelming percentage celebrate celebrates in some shape or form. Why is there a game at one o’clock and 430 as opposed to 430 and 830 you know, like that, just that’s bizarre to me. Forget about us on the East Coast. And this is where East Coast bias, where think about being on the West Coast. You have little ones, the Steelers and the chiefs. Have fans all over the country. We know that you’re you’re a Steelers fan in California, your kids are opening their presents, and your team’s getting ready to kick off at 10am I mean, it’s just bizarre to me that they’re doing that. But look, well,
Nestor Aparicio 15:47
sports wants to own the society, which is, like, great in that I’ve dedicated my entire life to local sports here, right? Like that, that they want to own every day on the calendar. This is but, but, like, middle of the day, though, that it’s not from Steelers fans to go to the ballpark at nine o’clock in the morning on Christmas Day. It’s that’s what
Luke Jones 16:07
I’m saying. It’s insane, like, I don’t understand, because last year, let’s take last year, the Ravens were involved in Christmas Day football. A year ago, they played the night game out in San Francisco, and Kansas City hosted the Raiders. And I believe that was a four o’clock game. I think it was right. It was an evening game, although, wait a second, as I’m thinking about it, I could be wrong on this and this shame on me. I don’t have my the schedule pulled up in front of me for Christmas, but I believe there actually may have been a one o’clock Christmas game. I’m trying to pull it up right.
Nestor Aparicio 16:42
Either way it was,
Luke Jones 16:44
it was but, but there was a one o’clock, there was a 430 and there was an 815 so I guess my question would be, if you’re only doing two and you’re not doing a triple header like you did last year, again, why wouldn’t it be 430 and eight o’clock? Those are better viewing windows than one o’clock. That’s why all the the sexy national TV games that are on CBS and Fox aren’t at one o’clock. They’re at 425 right? I mean, the Ravens played the Eagles at 425 a few weeks ago. So that’s just weird to me, because I’ve asked some people, and I don’t know if it’s a Netflix thing, and they’re thinking they might get a better global audience with a game at one o’clock, because, you know, obviously the league is trying to tap into international markets more and more and more, so maybe from that standpoint, it makes a little more sense. But that was just weird to me, you know, when they said that there were two Christmas games when the schedule came out back in, you know, early May, mid May, whatever it was, my assumption was, you know, you have a late afternoon game and then a Christmas night game. So I don’t know that was just weird to me, but, you know, these four teams that are involved, you know, everyone’s in the same boat. Some are healthier than others. Some are in better position than others. I mean, Houston, you know, they’re they’re sitting pretty. Kansas City sitting pretty. Pittsburgh has locked up a playoff spot. But you know, it’s not as though the ravens are in danger of not making the playoffs. I mean, we know nobody’s chasing them at this Yeah. I mean, they’re not good, you know, they’re gonna be a wild card at the very least. And you know, they’d have to really, really stumble to not be the top wild card at this point. But well, this
Nestor Aparicio 18:17
game gives us all the opportunity and the oxygen. Next week, they’re either going to be looking like a division winner or they’re going to lose on Saturday night. We’re going to talk about the thing we’ve been talking about, which is, how are they going to navigate the road, yeah, to to win a Super Bowl with this team and this defense and this kicker specifically. Right now, I don’t know. I mean this. I don’t want to say their season is Saturday night, and they are a touchdown favorite at home. And, um, this feels like if you’re going to win a Super Bowl, you better win Saturday.
Luke Jones 18:49
Oh, yeah. No, no question about it. As much as you and I have debated the merits of going on the road, it’s important to have at least that that first round at home, right? I mean, if you can get one home game, then you’re looking at it and saying, okay, win in the divisional round. You get to the conference title game, and then, you know, it’s a matter of winning back to back road games, right? Because the Super Bowl is neutral site game anyway, so it’s not as though you’re counting that as a road game. But you know the idea of having to win three straight on the road, you know, that’s dicey. I mean, it really is. So that’s where, yeah, I mean, the ravens, you got to win, right? I mean, if you don’t, if you don’t win Saturday, you know, you’ll hear the cliche, and Ravens fans and the team will talk themselves up and say, you know, if you’re facing Pittsburgh again in January, you’re saying, well, it’s really tough to beat a team three times a night. I’ll hear all that, but it’s a matter of not winning one road game, but having to do that three times in a row just to get to the Super Bowl. I mean, that’s tough. So yeah, you’d love and as much as we talk about the Ravens being road warriors in 2000 and row. Warriors in 2012 they were home in the first round, right? They had a home playoff game in the wild card round each time, and they won and got some momentum, and then they went on the road after that. So they’ve got to try to do this. And like I said, I mean you, you need to obviously win because it’s over, if not from a division standpoint, but you have to hope that Pittsburgh stubs its toe one more time after that. Because when you, as I’ve looked at it, and you can, you know, ESPN has like the playoff machine, where you can click on the different outcomes and and look at the scenarios and everything, I have not seen a path from A you would get down to the their their record in common games. You know, because head to head, would be a washer. If the Ravens win division record, would be a washer. Common
Nestor Aparicio 20:46
games are still coming with Kansas City, they have to play, right? So to whatever those outcomes are, well,
Luke Jones 20:50
right, right. But from that, but what I’m saying there is, I mean, if you know it, but if they win that game, then you’re kind of looking at it and saying, Well, you know, is it going to add up? So, I mean, the ravens,
Nestor Aparicio 21:03
Pittsburgh’s got a hell of a week too, coming in here and then hosting Kansas City on Wednesday, like we do, we’re going to learn a lot between now and by the time I, you know, whatever my dessert is on Christmas night, after all this is over with, we’re going to learn a lot. Well, I say
Luke Jones 21:18
that’s why I’d said to you when we talked about this a week to 10 days ago. I said to you, look, look at Pittsburgh’s record or their schedule. They could lose three in a row. I mean, it’s not far fetched whatsoever. I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but they lost the Philly. They are coming into Baltimore as an underdog, as you pointed out, and the Ravens chomping at the bit for some revenge, overdue for some revenge at this point in time, having everything to play for if they want to have a home playoff game and win the division, and then they they host Kansas City after that. I mean, that’s, that’s a bear of a three week schedule. I mean, if Pittsburgh comes out of that and they’re still in first place, then they’ve earned it, right? I mean, if one, if they beat the Ravens on Saturday, they’ve obviously earned it, because they’ve swept the ravens and all the all the talking heads like you and me that have said, Oh, the Ravens. I think the ravens are the better football team. It won’t matter. They’re not. Yeah, well, you can feel that way, but record wise, it doesn’t matter, right? It just doesn’t, because they’re the division champion at that point. And then then it’s a matter of, hey, spin up
Nestor Aparicio 22:20
a home game against your division rival when you’re completely healthy at home during the holidays, in December on national TV, touchdown favorite just lost in Philadelphia. If you lose the Pittsburgh on Saturday night, you get what you get? Yeah, you get
Luke Jones 22:37
and it doesn’t. And it doesn’t mean the season’s over, but it means you’re a wild card, and you’re going to have to go on the road and the entire time so and you’ve made your bed, you got to sleep in it. I mean, it’s that simple. So you know, we’re going to see how this plays out. But these four teams, and I think Houston’s interesting from a standpoint of, we go back to the off season and think about all the moves they made, including Stefan Diggs and obviously digs towards ACL, so he’s not in the picture, but there was very much an expectation that Houston would be duking it out with the likes of Kansas City and the Ravens, if anything, if you remember Nestor, and we’ve forgotten about this because Josh Allen has played at such a high level this year, there was very much a thought of buffalo taking a step back this year, Right? Not that, not that, not that they’re going to be bad. But I think there was very much a perception, even if you ask Bills fans back in the digs thing
Nestor Aparicio 23:27
and just sort of, we’re not going to be as good this year as we were last year on paper. I think there
Luke Jones 23:32
was a thought that, Okay, nope, because there were people who thought the jets would win the division. There were people that thought Miami would win that division, and buffalo would be, you know, a wild card, but maybe, like, 10 and seven, you know, maybe that kind of a an outfit, because it wasn’t just digs, but they also, they replaced a lot of guys on defense and all that. So, so for Buffalo to do what they’ve done Kansas City, regardless of the eyeball test, is 13 and one, which is crazy, because it doesn’t feel like they’re that good, like that, that good. But hey, they’re the Super Bowl champions, and the Ravens have, from a true talent level standpoint, look great, and they’ve also been the ravens, which is why they’re nine and five as opposed to, I don’t know, 12 and two or something like that. So, so, but, but Houston’s a team that you know, they’re nine and five, they have the same record as the ravens, but they’re another one of those teams where I look at them and say, they don’t feel like they’re that good. They feel very underwhelming to me. And look, they held the dolphins at 12 points on Sunday. CJ Stroud has not been as good as a lot of people thought he would be in his second year after he had this amazing rookie season. CJ stroud’s been underwhelming relative to expectations. Now, again, digs got hurt. Nico Collins missed quite a bit of time with a hamstring injury. You know, Joe mixons actually worked out pretty well for them, you know, in terms of what they got trading for him and. And what he’s meant for the running game when, you know, in previous years, they couldn’t run the ball at all, so but, but that’s a team that I don’t think anyone really when you talk about the true contenders in the AFC, no one really talks about Houston. But look at their opportunity over these next two weeks and what they can do. I mean, you know, if they beat Kansas City. And let’s say, you know, let’s say, for for argument’s sake, that Patrick mahomes doesn’t play on Saturday, they go into Kansas City, and then they pull off, I don’t even know if that’d be an upset without mahomes. And then, you know, they host the Ravens on Christmas. They’re a team that could really change the optics for themselves as a contender. Because, again, everyone talks about Kansas City Buffalo and the Ravens and the Steelers. I think that’s who most teams. You know that I think the Chargers at times, but not so much Sunday, right? So, I
Nestor Aparicio 25:55
mean, you went, You gave me some great ish two weeks ago. You’re like, they’re a good, bad team, not a bad, good team. And I’m like, yeah, the Chargers are a good, bad team.
Luke Jones 26:04
I mean, I just don’t think they’re I think the Chargers are. Look, they’re a playoff team. Do they have enough talent where you really think that they’re going to be there? Well,
Nestor Aparicio 26:13
the question would be at the end and the pathway, because I do start to dream these things up at this point. Say, all right, are they going to play a road game or home game? We’ll know that Saturday, you know, based on that. I used to run road trips. You remember that we just put people on busses and take in the Pittsburgh and buffalo to freeze on on short notice for $1,000 so if anybody wants to go, I’ll put a bus together, because I was thinking about this and on this pathway that they’re going to either earn or not earn based on this. And I think, well, if they’re the three seat, if they’re the three because they win out, and they’ll be smelling really good, right? They win three games in a row. Here, they win on Christmas night. We’re going to feel good about them if they’re the three seats, right? And then you’d say, well, who are they going to play? Well, Pittsburgh would have gone into the tank, probably at that point, right? And that may send them to Buffalo. That may send a the styles make the fights. Who’s coming in here to play a playoff game? Where are we going? Who’s playing where? And can somebody get buffalo out of the way? Right? So that’s the way you start to play it. If you’re a three seed, I think if you’re if you lose this week, or you spit your lunch up in Houston, which is not all that far fetched. I I think the Ravens winning two games on Saturday and Wednesday, that they’re going to be, in John’s Biblical words, the best version of themselves the next two games. The way, I’m not a believer that they’re just going to win these two games. I I’ve seen enough with the kicker, with the penalties, with the defense, they’re not great at home the way they used to be, like you come into our place, partly because my wife and I aren’t there screaming for him. There’s always 20,000 visiting fans now, because it wasn’t that way 15 years ago. It’s not the home field advantage. It once. This isn’t the Steelers are coming here. Steelers are beating them here. So like, I’m not. I don’t have that big bad wolf home vibe, but I don’t want to go play in Buffalo, Kansas City, in knockout games either next month, in the weather. All of that with the kicker, problems with the noise. Problems mean this team, this team has problems with snap count in their own building, like their noise would not play well. Cold will not play well. For Lamar, like I just there’s a lot of reasons to not like them going to Buffalo in Kansas City, other than just the fact that they’d be going to Buffalo in Kansas City. So you’ve told me the whole time, dude, it’s super bowl or bust, right? They have to win this that to get to the Super Bowl. Maybe they can lose in New Orleans. Oh, that wouldn’t smell good either. Um, let’s especially if it was to the Eagles. But for me, the pathway to winning a Super Bowl right now. I mean, you’ve heard of doubting Thomas’s. I’m a doubting Nestor. I don’t, I don’t think they’re equipped, given the penalties, the structure where they are to go on the road right now, because that’s what they’re going to have to do. It’s not last year anymore. Are they capable, sure, but these next couple of weeks, I got to see more out of them. I mean, not that they could show me anything against the giants on Sunday, because they couldn’t. I just need to see more out of them the next couple of weeks than what I’ve seen the first 15 weeks. I’m not a believer that they’re going to win the Super Bowl, and I wouldn’t bet $1 wouldn’t bet
Luke Jones 29:23
$1 on it right now. You wouldn’t bet $1 on it, man. What are the
Nestor Aparicio 29:27
odds? You wouldn’t bet $1 are they 15 or are they eight? What are they I don’t know what they are. I
Luke Jones 29:33
don’t I don’t know. I don’t pay attention to that. But not betting $1 on them is insane to win
Nestor Aparicio 29:39
the Super Bowl. If I had $1 I had $1 I wouldn’t put it on them. That’s all I put on somebody else. Okay? I mean, well, I mean, if you’re asking, I put it on buffalo in Detroit, and we’re all wound up about that on Sunday. My point
Luke Jones 29:53
here, I mean, who do you Who do you love so much more than the Ravens? I
Nestor Aparicio 29:58
mean, I’m just in Buffalo. If. Kansas. Kansas City barely wins every week. Okay. Well, they win though, okay, but the ravens are nine and five. I mean, I, I just, for all those years, we thought Tom I just was this year they weren’t as good. And I just, summarily, I 1,000% reject your notion that, like that, you act like they can’t win the Super Bowl. Like this isn’t, this isn’t four years ago when Ronnie Stanley was out for the year. We’re asking them to navigate a hell of a thing, to think they’re going to go to Buffalo one week and win, and then Kansas City the next week. And that’s if there are 3c that’s play a home game. But you’re speaking an absolute. You’re but you’re speaking in absolutes as though you didn’t
Luke Jones 30:39
see what happened in 2012 or 2000 right? I mean, this happens all the time. I mean, teams get hot. Teams get on a roll. Who do you? Who? Who’s the I mean, okay, I hear you. Kansas City is 13 and one, if they weren’t the Kansas City Chiefs, and you just looked at their profile statistically, and you saw that they were 13 and one, but you knew nothing about their previous five years, you would say that team is absolutely right to be knocked out in their first playoff game because of the way they play right now. They barely win every week. And look, that is a skill. I’m not saying that to knock what they have done to this point in time. But when you are relying on this is what we talk about in baseball. If you’re winning one run games constantly, what’s going to happen at some point your
Nestor Aparicio 31:28
closer is going to happen is it’s third and seven, and you can’t figure out Travis Kelsey and his girlfriend’s up golf clapping for him. And that’s happened again and again and again and again. And you know Lamar, Lamar Derek, Henry John, our balls, top 10, going to the Hall of everything. Go beat the Steelers Saturday night. Your touchdown favorite at home. But you might not show up, but you’re in here. You’re now, you’re changing now. You’re getting off the No, no, no, you’re trying to, I’m trying to give all the hurdles that are going to have to happen for them. First things first, beat Pittsburgh so you can have a home game, then you have a home I agree, and then I will be much more of a believer during the bye week, when I see who the ravens are hosting at home that week and where Pittsburgh is going, because Pittsburgh is a team that could go into Buffalo and win because they play defense. So to me, knocking on buffalo, what
Luke Jones 32:29
I’m not nearly as convinced as you are that Pittsburgh can go into Buffalo and win. I’m not convinced
Nestor Aparicio 32:35
anybody’s going into buffalo winning. I mean, I’m just to make a scenario where the Ravens don’t have to do it this way. I
Luke Jones 32:42
just think it’s hilarious when you say that with the Ravens beat them 35 to 10 this year, the
Nestor Aparicio 32:47
Ravens have lost five football games this year, and that, that’s the Bill Parcells in me. It is what you are understanding. Made it very hard on themselves. On paper, they’re this and they’re that, and they could be this, and they could have a pass rush. I agree. There’s going to the Hall of Fame, and their their coach is a genius, except every time he’s not. And like I I hear you good enough to win any one game, but putting this scenario together, where they’ve already backed themselves up, where they have to win Saturday night, they have to win four days later in Houston on the road, they’ll hold their water against Cleveland, I guess. I mean, don’t tell Jim Schwartz that, but and all of that will happen, and they’ll still have to go to Buffalo and Kansas City no matter what. So I’m, I’m not bullish on their chances of winning the Super Bowl right now. That’s not say they can’t you, and I will have that conversation every single day. But if you’re asking me to bet $1 on them on somebody else, it’s going to be somebody else, until I see them do something that tells me that they’re not a five loss team that’s the most penalized team in the world that doesn’t have a secondary that’s going to be able to cover against quality teams that’s going to have a pass rush that’s going to get on the spot, and they’re going to have an offensive line not that’s not that’s not gonna put him at first and 25 three times a game on the road in the cold. So
34:07
I was just pushing back the body of work. That’s, I just think everything you said is noted. And I’m not even saying I disagree with a lot of that, but you just kind of casually slipped in there that you think Pittsburgh can go into Buffalo and win. And I think
Nestor Aparicio 34:21
that’s upset. I’m trying to find somebody else that can go into Buffalo and maybe get them out of the way. And I don’t if you’re a three seed, even if you’re well,
Luke Jones 34:28
I hear you. But you know what? You know what? Though, Nestor, Kansas City in Buffalo right now. You know what they’re saying about the Ravens. Man, I hope someone can knock them off too. Oh, sure, because and, and I guess that is my point when I’m looking at this and look, I hear everything you say, and I agree with you, if we’re going to be talking about the scenarios where the ravens, we’re talking about them playing in New Orleans in seven weeks, you know, whatever it is seven weeks, seven, eight, whatever it is we’re talking about them, most likely, figuring out a way, you know, finding a way to win the division. In Pittsburgh stubbing their toe one more time beyond Saturday, and the Ravens having a home playoff game, it’s very difficult. Historically speaking, it is extremely difficult to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl. We know that it’s happened before, but it’s that’s not a high, high percentage proposition. Whereas, if you’re a team that doesn’t have a first round buy, but you have a home playoff game, as the Ravens have done twice in their history, you can get to a Super Bowl because it is important getting that first round so I agree with you. I guess the point that I’m trying to make here is all of these teams have warts. I mean, they absolutely do buffalo. Are they going to stop people? I mean, are they going to be able to stop the Ravens? They couldn’t stop them back in week four. In week four and the last couple weeks, albeit a great game against Detroit, exciting and fun and all that, they couldn’t stop the lions a whole lot. They couldn’t stop the Rams at all the week before. So are they going to stop the ravens and Lamar Jackson? Well, they didn’t back in week four. Can they do it now, Pittsburgh? Do they have enough offensively? I mean, period, I hear you about their defense, it’s good defense. Are they going to do enough offensively? I don’t know. Probably not, right. And Kansas City, look, I’m the guy that’s good. I’m sitting here. I’m going to tell you this right now. If the ravens are playing Kansas City in the AFC Championship Game, and Patrick mahomes is healthy, I’m picking the chiefs to win. And I made that promise back in week one, and I said, no matter what, until I see the Ravens do it, I’m not going to believe it. But that said, in terms of what Kansas City actually is as a football team right now, in terms of talent and their health and all of that, they’re absolutely vulnerable from a standpoint of, you know, they’re not the Juggernaut offensively that they were three or four years ago, and frankly, their defense hasn’t been as good as it was last year now, three weeks from now, four weeks from now, five weeks from now, that doesn’t mean I’m writing them off. Mind you, let’s
Nestor Aparicio 36:52
be clear. Well, think of all the things Lamar Jackson is going to have to do to earn that right to be there, and including, sure, wearing sort of a Buffalo Bills colored, uh, Raskin global blue shirt here, you’ll feel differently if they’re going out to Kansas City as a four point underdog for the A F C championship game, if the Ravens went up on a 12 degree night and somehow 119 to 17 over the bills and vanquished Josh Allen and beat them for a second time this year, and did everything that that game back in September promised that it could be for them in Buffalo, if they’ve navigated that, and the Ravens have beaten the Chargers at home and the bills on the road, and they’ve won now six games in a row. At that point, right, they will have won six games in a row going back to the giants on Sunday, right? So listen, you will find some way to to not like the chiefs, because they barely beat the Texans, or barely beat the Steelers the week before, or whatever that scenario would be, and limp to a 27 to 24 victory, that somebody missed a kick. Bob Boswell misses a kick to you know, listen, I’ll hear all because that’s, that’s what’s going to happen. It’s always wacky, and the Ravens could be in on that, because they’re good enough, they’re healthy enough, they got the coach, the quarterback down the line. I’ve watched him play the last 15 weeks. And if that’s a tune up, great. If this was a dress rehearsal for them going out beating Steelers 31 to 14 and on Saturday night and starting that, that journey to look like the team we thought they were in the off season, okay? Or the team they were that night against the bills. Let’s just say that, because that’s sort of a high water mark, where last year, you’d probably say their high water mark was Christmas night, beating snot out of the 40 Niners on the road right. Like that night, you’re like, holy, my God, this or the dolphins. The following week, this team’s going to host the championship game. And look out. Patrick mahomes is in, and then Taylor Swift showed up, and they ran the ball three times, and you have John Harbaugh’s going to make his case to go to the Hall of Fame on, on efforts like that, like no bueno. John harbouls lost too many big games,
Luke Jones 39:06
like the MVP either. I mean, it wasn’t just the running game. We don’t need. We’ve talked about that. Well, they’ve lost
Nestor Aparicio 39:11
a lot of playoff games around here. Late, hey, Marlon Umphrey, Ronnie Stanley, you know what? They lost a lot of playoff games.
Luke Jones 39:17
Buffalo’s lost a lot of playoff games too, sure. I mean, look, we all know Kansas City is not going to win the Super Bowl every year moving forward, right? They are going to lose it sometimes. Hell
Nestor Aparicio 39:28
of a lot easier when you take the first week of January off and you get sure eat at home and have barbecue, sure that shit is a lot easier when you earn that through slapping around and barely winning every week, every week. They win every week.
Luke Jones 39:41
I understand, but is that going to continue? Is my point?
Nestor Aparicio 39:45
Okay? Winners. Win. He I just
Luke Jones 39:49
think it’s funny, but you’re just, you’re acting like It’s
Nestor Aparicio 39:52
over already. It’s far from over. This is why, especially, especially considering they’re the team that I’m getting back a cup of each coffee right now and I’m getting. Ready for Saturday night, relax. Yeah, plenty more might actually sign. Somebody might want to fight. We’ll do a Orioles segment again. My
Luke Jones 40:07
overall point is, all of these teams have flaws. So from that standpoint,
Nestor Aparicio 40:13
who you know, will these flaws be worked out by Saturday night for the Ravens in the biggest game of the year? Here we go, right. This is fun.
Luke Jones 40:21
Will Pittsburgh have TJ watt and George Pickens? Because if they don’t have those guys, I feel even better about picking the Ravens then. But they gotta go do it. I’m with you. If they don’t do it, then, yeah, we’re gonna be talking about, well, they’re gonna be the five or the six seed, and we’ll see,
Nestor Aparicio 40:37
you know, maybe straight uphill from there.
Luke Jones 40:39
No question. They’ll, they’ll definitely have to earn it then if they’re playing in the AFC title game. So Luke Jones,
Nestor Aparicio 40:45
future author of Purple Rain three written with John Harbaugh. How I did it. I am Nestor. He is Luke. It’s all sponsored by our friends at chicken, nuke multi care presenting Luke back and forth from Owings Mills. We’re going to be doing the Maryland craft cake tour with our friends from the Maryland lottery. On Tuesday, we’re going to be able to be at amicis. They don’t even have a crab cake, but I’m doing the crab cake door. Wednesday, we’re going to be a Costas in Dundalk. That’s just over my shoulder. Come on out. See some friends. Have a cup of cheer. It’s the holidays. Happy holidays. Merry Christmas and all that good stuff and happy Festivus. For the rest of us, we’re Baltimore positive.com. Stay with us. You.
