Sure, the Ravens soundly beat the Buffalo Bills back in September but this one will take place on the frozen tundra of Orchard Park. Luke Jones and Nestor discuss what felt like an inevitable meeting between Baltimore and Buffalo in January and how the M.V.P. debate won’t matter on Sunday night.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discuss the highly anticipated matchup between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills in the NFL playoffs. They highlight the significance of the game, with the Ravens being one-point underdogs despite their strong season. They emphasize the importance of third-down and red-zone conversions, special teams, and the impact of cold weather. Both teams have had a history of playoff success, with the Ravens reaching the divisional round with a healthy Lamar Jackson and the Bills consistently advancing. The conversation also touches on the potential for the winner to face the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship.
Luke Jones and Nestor discuss …ltimore and Buffalo in January
Mon, Jan 13, 2025 9:40AM • 39:36
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, AFC Championship, Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Derrick Henry, playoff expectations, red zone, third down, special teams, Justin Tucker, weather impact, offensive strategy, defensive performance, postseason pressure
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:02
Welcome home. We are W, N, S T, am 1570 Towson, Baltimore. We’re Baltimore positive. We hope you set a spot for us out on your radio dial as you’re driving around the boat. Wait, I’ve been listening to our competitors the last couple of weeks. We’re better than they are. I like I swear. I listen to B, A L, I listen to 105 70 trying to find 1300 at some awful thing on Sunday night instead of the the Washington commanders game. But it is a division a week. The NFL people and the Jim dances of the world would say this is the best matchups of the year this weekend. So we’ll have that on Saturday, sitting around watching Kansas City play Houston, figuring out who we’re going to face if we win, obviously, everybody’s a Houston fan, the way they were a Denver fan on Sunday around here. Meanwhile, Philadelphia and Washington could be playing against each other, and the NFC Championship game next weekend, and the Baltimore Ravens could could host the AFC Championship came next week, if Houston were to win Saturday and the Ravens were to win Sunday. Luke Jones is here, shuffling off to Buffalo. We are this weekend where I’m sure it’ll be balmy at 6:30pm eastern time on on Sunday night. Great, great football game. It is the game everybody in the country is going to be talking about this week. They already were. Ravens have been instilled disrespectfully, a one point dog on the road up in Western New York. No snow in the forecast. Little bit of light gusting on Sunday, from what I understand. But like not during the game, there’s no threat, but it’s buffalo. There’s always a threat, right? Luke. Oh,
Luke Jones 01:33
no question. I mean, it’s Western New York. Anyone who spent any time in Western New York, Central New York, this time of year, you
Nestor Aparicio 01:39
know about your background in Western New York. Come on, tell them, kids don’t know your story about Syracuse.
Luke Jones 01:43
Well, Syracuse is Central New York. I mean, that’s, yeah, Syracuse picks
Nestor Aparicio 01:47
up the water and it dumps it on Syracuse, the lake effect, yeah. I
Luke Jones 01:50
mean, like, if you live in that part of the country, I mean, you’re kind of amused when you talk. And I say this as though I lived there for years. I spent two years at Syracuse. You know, let’s be clear. I’m not like you
Nestor Aparicio 02:01
got all your you soaked in all of that. Bob Costas, right? Yes, yeah, right, exactly, yeah,
Luke Jones 02:07
exactly. But no, you, you if, when you live there, you you’re amused when you hear other areas like home, where we talk about a dusting or an inch of snow as though it’s an event, right? I mean, not that that it’s shutting things down, because we’re not living in the South, where they never get snow, and when they get an inch of snow, they’re paralyzed, but, yeah, we still view it as something that is a thing. But when you live in that part of the country, you know, you you wake up and there’s a fresh one inch of snow on the ground. You shrug your shoulders, right? I mean, everyone has four wheel drive, you know, you that part of the country, you see people driving around. Everyone has plows, you know, on there, just so it
Nestor Aparicio 02:50
makes my wife a lot more hearty than me. She grew up in New Hampshire, you know, like snow thing, like, she came home from Florida to snow Sunday night. No, yeah, it snows your snow. Get the dust out. You clean it all to me, it’s like, I let the five inches of snow sit on the car for two days because I didn’t want to touch it, because I just don’t, you know what I mean, I’m like, at a carport for 20 years. I’m bougie now I just am. Since I live downtown, I’m bougie, you know. Oh, and
Luke Jones 03:15
I will say this for my time in central New York, which was a long time ago. At this point in time, I have definitely gotten to the point now where it’s like, the cold bothers me.
Nestor Aparicio 03:25
You’re like, it’s cold. It was cold. It was cold. It’s going to be cold at the football game on Sunday night. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. Um, for you with this matchup, this was inevitable, right? I mean, I think when
Luke Jones 03:39
you look at the landscape of the AFC. I mean Kansas City, we knew was going to be the number one seed from, I don’t know. I mean early November on, and I know buffalo had half a puncher’s chance to catch them, and they had the head to head in case they had caught them. But you know, you knew Kansas City was going to be there. And you look at the rest of the AFC, and it’s Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson and their teams. And as I mentioned in our previous segment, every time the Ravens have had a healthy Lamar this time of year, they’ve been in the divisional round other than his rookie year, which, again, I don’t really count in the same way that I talk about 2019 on, you know, they, that’s they’ve been there. You know, the bills are there in the divisional round every year. You know, they they’re not getting to the conference championship every single year. And Cincinnati has been in that mix in some years recently, and
Nestor Aparicio 04:31
we’ll be again, by the way, that you know we’re going to have a problem with them in January before we have a Pittsburgh problem. And this shock that it wasn’t a Cincinnati problem, because we talked about in the off season as though Cincinnati because they, I mean, they’ve got to pick her up in the year when you have to have a quarterback, there’s eight teams left in the tournament, right? They all have quarterbacks,
Luke Jones 04:50
sure. I mean, they have to figure out their defense, because their defense killed them this year. I mean, Joe burrow, if the Bengals were in the tournament, you. I and I’m not talking about their chances of winning in the tournament, but if they were in the tournament, you’d be hearing way more about Joe burrow with Lamar and Josh Allen in terms of the MVP discussion. I mean, go look at the All Pro voting. Joe burrow got some love from the All Pro voters as well. So but, but their team wasn’t as good enough, you know, wasn’t as good. You know, they weren’t good enough. Their defense was awful. They they wasted an amazing gear from Joe burrow and Jamar Chase, but, but, but to get back to your original question. I mean, I think we all were anticipating this. I mean, yeah, you have Cinderella’s and, you know, you could have talked me into the idea of Denver having a half a chance of upsetting buffalo. You know that, hey, they scored a touchdown early in that game, right? You know, they they take the deep shot. But you know, they had a rookie at quarterback, you know, I mean, Houston, CJ Stroud, I give him credit. He played better in the second half against the chargers on Saturday, but this has not been a good year for CJ Stroud, you know, this his sophomore year compared to what he did as a rookie, has been underwhelming. Now it’s not all his fault. I mean, their offensive line is not very good. They had injuries at wide receiver, but all those other quarterbacks you’re coming up with a reason to try to rationalize them getting to the divisional round, whereas chiefs bills ravens, it’s kind of the default expectation, right, assuming nothing crazy happens to their quarterbacks. And the Ravens have been in that spot where Lamar has been hurt in 21 and 22 and they weren’t there then as a result. Of course, it’s
Nestor Aparicio 06:39
kind of like Borg Mac and row and Connors, you know, there’s just, there’s three powerhouses. They’re gonna be there, right, getting through the tournament here, right? Yeah,
Luke Jones 06:48
I mean, I mean, that’s the thing, and that’s where for me. And this is not to say that the Ravens don’t have high expectations in the divisional round, because they do, and they should, right? I mean, you can make the argument, whether you’re looking at TV away, or this metric or that metric, that they could be the best team. I mean, they could be record wise or not, but talent level wise, you could certainly make an argument for them, but, but that’s the thing you can’t have. You know, this isn’t like the WWE, where you could have a triple threat match for the for the title. You know, only two teams are going to play in the in the AFC title game, and Kansas City’s got the easier draw against Houston. They earn that. So there’s no complaining there. But when you’re the bills and you’re the ravens, you’re saying, Man, we’ve had a great season. Our quarterback has been an MVP. We have Pro Bowl players. We have a good record all the different things you want you want you can talk about this time of year, but only one’s going to move on. And that’s where, you know, I’ll you made a comment about, if the Ravens were to lose Sunday, then, you know, what would the off season feel like? It’d be frustrating. But I don’t think it’s like, oh, you need to fire this guy, or you need to make this change or that. Then it’s just like, well, Buffalo is a little bit better than you and same for the bills. If the bill, you know, at the Ravens advance, you know, assuming there’s, it’s not like a controversial game or a blowout, or there’s this dumb coaching decision, or, you know, just assuming it’s two great teams going at it, one wins and one loses. The frustrating part of it is, I don’t know. There’s a whole lot to say other than Well, you gotta regroup and go come back next year. I mean, it’s really that simple. Now, the difference is, if you’re the ravens, if you had lost to the Steelers, then that’s a different discussion. If the bills had lost to the Broncos on Sunday, then that’s a different discussion, because then you’re losing to an inferior team. So, you know, that’s why I said, I mean, for the ravens, for the bills, for the chiefs, you know, chiefs put aside because they’ve won, you know, they’ve won multiple times, so they should be viewed differently in that way. But if you’re the ravens and you’re the bills, you know, the default is, you get to the divisional round and then it’s like, All right, here we go. This is when the season really starts. You know, you were saying that for 50 weeks. Yeah, exactly. So, so, yeah. I mean, this always felt, you know, depending on how the draw was going to look, it always felt inevitable. And from a narrative standpoint, if you’re trying to write the Lamar Jackson arrow ravens finally breaking through and getting to the Super Bowl, yeah, you were going to have to go through Josh Allen and and obviously Patrick mahomes, and throw the Steelers into into the wildcard round for good measure, right? I mean, even though they’ve been way more mediocre overall, the Ravens have had their issues against the Steelers over the last five years. So, so, you know, it sets up in a way that that feels, you know, it feels right. You
Nestor Aparicio 09:40
know, the games in Buffalo because you lost to the Steelers, the games in Buffalo because you lost to the browns, the games in Buffalo because you lost to the Raiders, because you beat the snot out of the bills. Yeah, no, all you had to do was tie them in the standings. And the game would have been in Baltimore, but you couldn’t, and they took care of their business against the Patriots and the Jets and, you know, in their own division. And. The Ravens didn’t do that,
Luke Jones 10:01
yeah, well, and I would say, and you just mentioned the division, they did. They did have the benefit of playing in a division that wasn’t as good as the AFC north. I mean, even, you know, I mean, Pittsburgh was a playoff team. Cincinnati could have been. I think everyone looked at Cincinnati’s true talent level with their offense at the very least, and understood there were a handful to play. You know, whether you beat them or not, like the Ravens beat them twice, but both those games could easily could have been losses, if the ball bounces a different way, or something happens a little bit differently than it did, but, but, you know, it is what it is, and at this point, I mean, Vegas has the Ravens as a one point dog. I mean, that’s not shocked by that, considering the home field, considering what the bills have been, considering what the Ravens have been. I mean, I think Week Four Shouldn’t we shouldn’t put too much stock into it in terms of, like, thinking the ravens are going to blow them out. But it should give the ravens and their fan and the fan base every bit of confidence that the Ravens can go up there and win. I mean, there’s no reason to think they can. But, you know, two good teams, two great quarterbacks, right? Two teams that have some imperfections here and there, but nothing, you know, so out of the ordinary, like the like the Bengals, with their lousy defense. I mean, I think the bills, you know, a lot was made about their defense in how it looked, really a few weeks back, you know, they had that shootout against the lions. You know, they and I’m not, let me be clear, I don’t think the bills have a great defense by any stretch of the imagination. And, man, if they don’t stop the run a little bit better, at least a little bit better, than they did in week four, then the Ravens absolutely will win. Well, they got bolano
Nestor Aparicio 11:34
back. They are better than they were, and the Ravens defense is better than it was in week four too well.
Luke Jones 11:40
And I think what, what this is really going to come down to, and I already said this, but I’ll reiterate this point. I don’t think this is going to be 41 to 38 I don’t think it’s going to be crazy, like a crazy shootout, but I do think this is the kind of game. When you look at these two offenses and their ability to run the football, I think the best, the best defense for both teams is going to be their offense, trying to maintain possession of the ball, scoring touchdowns inside the red zone, running the ball, trying to wear down the opposition. And I think it’s going to be a matter of who does that better and who makes fewer mistakes in the process of trying to do that, meaning not turning the ball over, not committing penalties and putting yourself in first and 15 or second and 12 or things like that. So, so I think that’s, you know, that’s where this comes, comes down to two great teams, who does, who does the little things better? I mean, I think that’s going to be a big part of this, because I think both quarterbacks are going to make plays both, both teams have a, you know, Derek Henry’s unbelievable, but don’t sell James Cook short, don’t sell Ty Johnson short, I mean, the bills have some they’ve got some playmakers in the backfield themselves. So, you know, I don’t expect the bill, you know, I’m not sitting here saying the bills are going to run for 200 yards against the ravens, but I think they can make enough plays with their running backs out of the backfield to keep the Ravens defense honest in a way that maybe they, you know, certainly they didn’t do in week four, you know, when the Ravens really got up early and got after them and made the bills more one dimensional. So, you know, I think this is the kind of game where both offenses are going to look at this and say, Yes, we need to score points and we need to score touchdowns and not kick field goals. But we also want to try to do this in a way to keep the other team’s offense off the field. You know, the the best defense against Lamar is your offense maintaining possession and controlling the clock and moving the ball and and obviously scoring points, but you try to limit possessions in that way. So I think that’s where this game’s going to be really, really interesting, because I you know that both offenses love to run the football. I think, you know, zay flowers status is going to be huge. We haven’t mentioned it to this point, but we’re going to see whether he can play this week. I, you know, all along the thought was he has a chance to play this week. I don’t think it’s beta complete one way or the other. I think a lot of it’s just going to depend on how his knees feeling, whereas the thought, even early last week all along, was that flowers wasn’t going to play against Pittsburgh. You know, that was the the sense I got, and they ended up rolling them out, right? I mean, the Ravens don’t do that unless a guy’s not even close to playing on game day. So, so that’s that’s a big factor. At the same time you have a bills offense that you know Shakir has come a long way. You know, he’s a he’s a yak guy. I mean, certainly someone you have to be aware of. They have Amari Cooper. They’ve got some other guys who can make some plays here and there. But you know, there’s no Stefan Diggs, you know, there’s no stud, no wide receiver like Jamar chase for Cincinnati, of course, even pickins, yeah, yeah. So, so, you know, I mean, I think from that standpoint, it’s, and, you know, if the Ravens don’t have zay flowers, you know, they’re kind of in a similar spot, they have guys who can make plays still, you know, have receivers and tight ends who can still do some things, Bateman and Mark Andrews and Isaiah likely. And we saw that. Against Pittsburgh, you went
Nestor Aparicio 15:00
out of that 12 personnel and two tight ends, and Justice Hill played a role in that this back end. So, I mean, I’m not for me the game. And you said a couple of things. You’re like, don’t kick field goals, right? Like, gotta start touchdowns. Bad weather night, we know it’s going to be that, whatever it’s going to be, it’s going to be 20 degrees, right? So, like, whether there’s precipitation or whatever, we know it’s going to be breath under freezing cold night, right? Yeah. I mean, we’ll see about the wind. The notion for me of what happens on third down and fourth down. And look when Derek Henry’s running the ball and they’re in second and one and second and two, as I wrote early in the game, when they were running and Lamar was running when they’re in second and two, you’re not going to beat them. I mean, you’re just you’re not because they’re a four down offense. In that way they move forward. Mainly they’re not Barry Sanders. When they move backwards, it’s because they’re offensive line jumps. It’s because of penalties that they move backwards. They don’t move backwards because Derek Henry getting trapped other than a safety in the backfield, right? So for me, key decisions, and this is where and McDermott and Harbaugh have a long, you know, history and all that, the notion that it’s third and four on the 42 the other 4259 yard field goal. Can’t do it. Don’t really want to punt. Now it’s third and four. You get two. Now it’s fourth and two, and you’re at the 39 or the 4057, yard field goal in Buffalo, giving them the ball at the 50 if you miss it, right? What are you doing? Well, they’re going for it. I mean, they’re they’re going to go for it every single time. And the bills are too. And I want to tell you, man, that’s when this is going to get slobber knockery. There’s going to be three or four of those in this game, because I’ve seen these offenses. They’re going to zig zag, zig Oh, stutter penalty first and 25 no problem. We’re going to make it. They’re going to do all of that. And there’s going to be those nut cut, fourth and one from the 28 What do you do? Fourth and three from the 31 What are you going to do? Because that’s going to happen, and that’s going to be decisions of horrible decisions, of McDermott, the kicking game in general, and the ideology of, I can get six feet here, and we’re going to be go playing Kansas City next week, especially when you get to the end of the game, giving up possession of the ball, you don’t want to kick a field goal, so you don’t want to give the ball back. You’re like, I like our chances to keep the ball for another two minutes, two and a half minutes here in a 2624 game, 2727 game. I mean it to me, shootouts, relative, there’s going to be points. But to me, this game is about those moments, third and something, and where you get and then how that either becomes a first down or fourth down. And once it’s fourth down, to me, it’s Cannonball Run here because, like, they’re not going to kick field goals. They’re not if it’s fourth and four from the 26 you kick a 43 yard field goal, are you going to are you going to keep the ball? I don’t know. I think almost every time these teams are going to go for it on fourth down. And I think that’s one of the reasons the kicking thing is going to be weird, the weather is going to be weird, just the fact that you don’t want Justin Tucker to end your season at this point missing doinking. We saw some doinks over the weekend, some successful, some otherwise. But, you know, I just wanted to say that out loud early in the week, because I think that’s that’s the game to me, seven and a half minutes left to go, one score game on the road, doesn’t matter who has the ball, also them driving over the 50, decision making, play calling, and possession of the ball and finding the sticks. Yeah.
Luke Jones 18:53
I mean, I think you look at third down, you look at Red Zone. I mean fourth down, certainly you mentioned the kicking element. While Justin Tucker has looked way better since the bye week, there haven’t exactly been a ton of high leverage moments there, right? I mean, it’s, he’s made every kick. I mean, that’s great, that that’s what you want. I mean, there’s no, it’s always funny when people try to deem someone being back or someone being fixed. I mean, there’s, there’s no silver bullet in determining that it’s still the
Nestor Aparicio 19:22
Ravens never thought he was broken till he missed the kicks at four o’clock on Sunday, because out on the backfield, he can
Luke Jones 19:27
strike the ball 60 Exactly, and that’s why you haven’t seen me breathlessly giving updates in pre game warm up. So Justin Tucker made it from 60. It’s like, okay, that doesn’t mean anything to me, right? I mean, and it’s fine, like, I’m not being disparaging to people who do, but it’s all within the context of what’s happening when the lights are on and the pressure is on and that situation matters.
Nestor Aparicio 19:47
I would also say this for you and me, because I scour the internet too. The stuff that you and I know is important. We focus on the fans are focused on who said what this and that people think I’m focused on. Fans in the stands and but and the tickets I am because of the franchise and because of where it used to be and where it is. And you have said, it’s not the same, most people are like, it’s not the same without Ray Lewis. They brought Ray Lewis dance back to dancers. That’s all sports radio talk, right? But what’s really important in the framework of the game and what they’re doing, that all happens within the game, because they’re prepared out knowings mills. If they didn’t think Justin Tucker was the best kicker they could have, they wouldn’t have him. I was never a guy that they should work out on. I mean, you and I had some dark days here back in November, like, what are they going to do? What are they going to do? He hasn’t had to make a kick in six weeks, really, in the kind of conditions he’s going to have to make it in. As we saw the Washington kid, their six kicker this year. You talk about the Ravens instability, they’ve had three kickers ever right now, four or five. You put asking right RAM Gano in there, but like, literally, six kickers in 20 weeks, and they’re trying to win again this week in Detroit with this i I’ll take my chances with Justin Tucker, but my point is, when it’s fourth and one on the 17 yard line, you’re going for it, yeah, so that’s it, right? I guess that was my greater point,
Luke Jones 21:11
right? Well, and we haven’t mentioned this, and I’m not going to dwell on it, but Tyler bass missed a big kick against Kansas City in the playoffs last year, right? So, so there’s scar tissue for him as well. Especially, I’m sorry I
Nestor Aparicio 21:24
did. I said that this week. Yeah, Scott Norwood is not Steve. As I sit here wearing an Oilers Jersey against
Luke Jones 21:29
the bills. Yeah, yeah. So, so, you know, I mean, I mean, I think you look at Red Zone, ravens were first in the league in red zone. Offense, Buffalo was third, third down offense, ravens were second in the league. Buffalo was seven. And you just said it. I mean, for either one of these teams, obviously the Ravens third and 1/4, and one. We’ve seen them use their version of the tush push with Mark Andrews. You have Derek Henry, you have Lamar Jackson, buffalo, James Cook, Josh Allen, runs plenty of quarterback sneaks, so you get in the third and short, fourth and short, fourth and short. Neither one of these teams want to be they’re meaning their defense wants to be in third and short, fourth and short, against this, you know, against this opposing offense, because the chances are they’re going to, they’re going to pick it up. So I think this is the kind of game again, where possession of the football is going to be so important. And I think converting third down, converting inside the red zone, is just going to be, I mean, it’s, yeah, and let me be clear, this isn’t rocket science that I’m expressing here. These are always important factors. But in a game like this, I think it’s going to be so much more important than than normal. Well, you
Nestor Aparicio 22:37
feel the oxygen change. You felt that Saturday night with the lights on here and all that, the oxygen changes. And it gets a little thinner this week to get air for everybody, because the stakes, you know, and especially your last game you’re sitting around, not cut time, you know, watching all this football Saturday watching. And the other part that I keep going back to, and I’ll continue to reiterate this, because the Denver game, Denver, everybody was a Denver Bronco fan for a couple hours at one o’clock on Sunday around here trying to get a home game. You know, the notion that we’re all going to be rooting for the I’m wearing my Houston Oilers jersey. I’ll be wearing my Houston Texas jersey on the Saturday afternoon when they take on the chiefs. I mean, that you don’t want to go to Kansas City. So the notion that you could be sitting waiting for a home game too. That’s a whole different level of how you play it on on Sunday, and how you think about it when you go to bed Saturday, because there is that possibility eight and a half points. I’ll hear it, you know, yeah, you have to make your own case to think that CJ Stroud is going to go into Kansas City and win. But Kansas City has been vulnerable this year. They have been, yeah, been.
Luke Jones 23:39
I mean, I’m certainly not holding my breath on that scenario, not not. And I’m not suggesting anyone else.
Nestor Aparicio 23:44
Is this where I announce that you and I have
Luke Jones 23:45
flights of Kansas City next weekend? Elder, sure, yeah, yeah, no question. So we’re going to Kansas City. If the ravens are going, I’m not going to the press box, but I’ll knock on the door and take some pictures. But there’s, but there’s also, there’s even the element assuming the Chiefs do win, and I fully expect the chiefs to win on Saturday, because they’re the better team. And I’m just, I’m not a big believer in the Houston Texans, 31 to two on Christmas will do that to you, right? When we saw the ravens, just absolutely embarrassed them in Houston. But I think there’s also that element that if the Chiefs do win both of these teams, Buffalo and the Ravens. You know, Buffalo three times the Ravens last year in the AFC title game in Baltimore, Buffalo lost to Kansas City in Buffalo in the divisional round last year. There’s that. There’s also that element of what knowing that you win this game, you get another shot at mahomes, you get another shot at Andy Reid, you get another shot at the chiefs. So, I mean, this, this is the way that it’s, this was always the way it was going to to line up, right? I mean, if you’re talking about, again, laying it out in a narrative form, where you’re writing the book, or you’re putting together the NFL films, highlight video, right? I mean, it’s, this is always the way it’s going to work for for any of these teams, right? Right? Kansas City, it’s the number one seed. They they deserve that, you know, right? They went six, you know, 15 and one until week 18, and rested their starters. And you have Buffalo and the Ravens that have been chasing them for years now. And they both have come up short against them in January. And they’re both looking for their redemption. They’re both looking for their opportunity to finally break through to your point. You have a Bills fan base that’s been waiting for decades for this. You have a Ravens fan base that has seen the Lamar era. Ravens be so great in the regular season and be number one seed in home field and all of that, and come up short. So both these teams are dying the breakthrough, and the winner most likely goes to Kansas City and then has that another shot at the chief. So it’s great. I mean, this is again. This is what we talk about all year long, all off season, all spring, all summer, all regular season, we keep coming back to well, they have to be better for this come January, the first 11 weeks of the season, we kept talking about the defense, the defense, the defense has to be better. Has to at least be average. It can’t be this lousy past defense. Well, they’ve done that, and they’ve been better than average. I mean, the Ravens have had one of the best defenses in the league over the last seven weeks. So and they’re going to need it. They’re going to need to, you know, I’m not expecting them to shut out the bills or hold them to 10 points like they did back in week four, but you’re going to need to get a stop here or there, right, in the same way that the bills defense is saying, We can’t let Derek Henry run for 200 yards on us again, if he, if he runs for a buck 20. All right, like we can probably still find a way to win under that circumstance. But if he’s running for 200 on us, and Lamar is running for 70 man, Josh Allen’s probably going to be standing on the sideline all night, right? So both these teams are trying to figure out ways to steal possession here or there. That’s where, not just talking about fourth down scenarios, special teams will be so important in this game, and we know that the Ravens haven’t been stellar in that way. Now a big, big part of you know, when you look at DVOA or things like that, in judging their special teams, Justin Tucker’s early season struggles really dock them big time when you’re looking at at it through that lens. But you know, this is a buffalo team that has not been very good special teams wise, either. So I don’t think
Nestor Aparicio 27:21
about that, but missing the kicks is one of the reasons there were buffalo this week, right? Literally,
Luke Jones 27:25
sure, sure. Yeah, no question. So, you know, missing kicks penalties, you know, giving up big plays in the passing game, as the Ravens did over the first 11 weeks of the season. You know, the bills having issues stopping the run at times. Although I’ve seen some people, you know, kind of overstate their issues with with their run defense, I don’t think the run defense has been quite as bad as some people have made it out to be. Well, I think we
Nestor Aparicio 27:49
go back to the fact we need to buy four touchdowns there. There is a point where there, there’s a little bit of a track record there, although it was here. It was a long time ago. We talked about Matt Milano and the differences and all of that, but that’s going to get brought up all week, that the Ravens beat the side out of this team and their one point dog this week. Yeah, well, I mean, I’m sure it’s not lost on them. Again, Vegas expects them to be going home Sunday night. That’s crazy. I mean, they, they do, but, but, but only because someone has to, right? I mean, it’s not like their disrespect would be the bills being a five point favorite. You know, they wouldn’t be disrespect. It doesn’t exist in gambling. Because, like, they get the gamblers set the, you know, people that bet on it. I have a feeling the Ravens will be favored by the time they get up there. I mean, I just could be, because I think people are going to bet on the ravens, not going to bet on the bills. That’s, that’s my gut.
Luke Jones 28:35
They could be, oh, they’re there. There are a lot of people in bills mafia, so you never know. I mean, but there’s also a lot of people that think Lamar Jackson’s not going to win a big game too. Big game too, because that’s gone on forever and well, both these guys have to win a big game. I mean, Josh Allen through the same lens. You know, Josh Super Bowl, yeah, so, I mean, I voted. They both lost at home last year, but we talked, we talked about this back in week four. I mean, these two teams are kindred spirits and a lot of weight. I mean, both have all world quarterbacks, both have been the bridesmaid. How many times in the AFC now where they’ve just come up short against Patrick mahomes? Or this has happened, or that has happened, you know? I mean, obviously the ravens, historically have a couple Super Bowl titles under their belt, whereas the bills had the four AFC titles in the 90s and couldn’t win. But, you know, you have two teams that have just been chasing mahomes and the chiefs, and both teams desperately want another crack at it, you know, next week, but it’s going to be, you know, who’s going to survive here? You know, who’s going to win? Vegas has loved the Ravens all year, right? I mean, we talked about it last week, you know, you you were talking about the fact that, you know, the you were surprised that the Steelers were a nine and a half point underdog. Well, probably should have been more, because the Steelers stink, right? I mean, you know, again, how bad they were, but, yeah, the fact that the Ravens were that big of a favorite, the fact that the bills were OH. What was, it ended up being seven and a half eight points over the Broncos, you know, as far as the point spread. So, you know, these are two teams that Vegas has liked all year. You know, when you look at the Super Bowl odds right now, I mean, they’re, they’re right up there. So someone’s going to win, but someone’s going to lose as well. And that’s where I again, for me, to me, the conversation was going to be a tough one. If you lost to the Steelers, if you, if you, if you laid an egg against Pittsburgh on Saturday night, and we’re talking about the Ravens being eliminated to that team. We’re having a way different discussion now. We’re talking about John Harbaugh. We’re talking about elements, other coaching elements, other elements of this roster. We’re talking about what has to happen here that you’re so great in the regular season, and it doesn’t translate. You know, if you lose to the bills on Sunday, it’s frustrating as all heck, don’t get me wrong, but I don’t think it’s this damning indictment on the ravens, right? I mean, it’s the two seed against the three seed. I mean, well, it depends
Nestor Aparicio 30:59
on how they look to I mean, last year we’re still going out. That’s a different story. Yeah. I mean, they’re getting the bus with Derrick Henry on Sunday. You know, I have to like them wearing a Derrick Henry jersey and talking about this for a couple of years. To me, he is the difference maker. And I like, I can’t fathom if they were getting off the bus Saturday night with JK, pick any running back? Pick Josh Jacobs, whom I love, who’s eliminated now Chad, who would lose a beast the other night in Philadelphia. But like, he’s just a guy, no offense. He’s not Jim Brown, which is why I bought the jersey, which is why I talk about it in that way. Because it is like the scene in Fast Times at Ridgemont High when he gets going and the bills better figure it out on a cold night. And as Lamar pointed out the other day, yeah, he doesn’t like the cold weather, but the defenders don’t like to tackle in it either. And Lamar thinks about it that way. Well,
Luke Jones 31:52
I think all these players do. I mean, I look it’s cold for everyone, but you got to go play. I mean, it’s that simple. I mean, I don’t think anyone’s gonna be thinking about the cold gonna be thinking about the cold weather. You know, when you think about the cold weather when you’re down 13 points in the second half, that’s when you think about the coin and I think it’s always colder when you’re losing. I mean, Pittsburgh’s defense stunk from Jump Street on Saturday night. But you certainly saw as that game went on, their interest level in tackling Derrick Henry, which wasn’t very high to begin with, went to zero as the game went on. So, you know, that said a lot about, you know, that said so much about what was under the hood for the Steelers compared to the ravens, you know, which was, you know, was jarring, I think, you know, for a lot of people seeing Pittsburgh, but maybe not, because that’s how Pittsburgh’s played in the postseason for a long time,
Nestor Aparicio 32:39
sleepwalking part of the fur. How do you come into Baltimore? Have the lights go on like that. You come down and sleepwalk through the fur. I mean that that? Yeah, I mean, Thomas gonna have to answer to something. And there was rumors about him getting traded somewhere. I don’t know where they’re trading him, but you know where he’d want to go, or him picking his spot, or whatever at this point. I mean, I know him pretty well. I don’t think he ever thought or wants to coach anywhere else. I don’t think he has that where John has thought about it, and wouldn’t I look good in Green Bay and some of these Notre Dame John thought, you know, like there’s some thoughts about that. Yeah. I mean, John never really wanted to be an NFL head coach to begin with. John’s passion was college football, but John thought he was going to be Notre Dame. He’s told me that. He told me that purple rain too, that purple rain too, that he thought he was going to be Boston College’s coach, literally, Mike Tomlin. I don’t, I don’t see any scenario where he’s going to say, Yeah, I’d rather go coach another team. But they’re in a weird spot up there, and they love football like we do. If we were, and we might be on Monday morning, we might be what’s up? We, we’re not winning. We, you know, we didn’t. It’s not just not the same, though, no, it’s not the same. It’s not winning a playoff game in 10 years, right? I mean, that’s, that’s the thing. I mean, you’re, you’re
Luke Jones 33:51
levy on Bell and Antonio Brown were still on that team the last time they won a playoff game. I mean, that’s, it’s unheard of. I mean, and look, it’s not as though the Ravens have been awesome in the postseason in recent years, obviously, but, but the Ravens with a healthy Lamar Jackson have been talked about in the championship conversation. Pittsburgh has been third tier, right? Pittsburgh’s been that team that is either going in the wrong direction, like they were this year, or they’re middling and they find a way to win a game or two late in the season just to get in as the number seven or number six seed. I mean, that’s that’s that that’s been their ceiling in recent years, even at the end of the Roethlisberger era, when he wasn’t, you know, was it Ben Roethlisberger anymore? You know, I think something that was really telling them, to me, was the way Pittsburgh started that game. They win the toss. They received. You know, they did not defer like John Harbaugh, Mike Tomlin typically defers. So they took the ball. They came out throwing. Russell Wilson threw up through passes on three of the first four plays. So they clearly recognized if they were going to have a shot. That they needed to be aggressive one first down in a punt, and even that punt which Steven Sims muffed and the Ravens end up starting at their own five yard line. They drive 95 yards for a touchdown. I mean, how deflating does that have to be to say you can’t stop him when you’re giving the ball in the five yard line, right? Not just that, but also we took the ball, which, from an analytic standpoint, you’re deferring is what you want to do. But because you get possession in the second half, you it kind of guides how your strategy late in the first half, and we’ve seen this. I mean, the way the Ravens operate their two minute offense late and a half, because you say, hey, we want to score, but we don’t want to leave any time, because then we get the the second half kickoff, and we get it, well, you get two possessions in a row exactly. You can get back to back possessions. So, so pitch, that’s like a takeaway, almost. But Pittsburgh said, Hey, we’re going to be aggressive. But to me, it felt like they recognized they needed to be aggressive, and then they realized they’re they’re not capable of playing that way. And I get it. They scored a couple touchdowns in the third quarter, and Russell Wilson got the got the moon ball going a couple times. And obviously the Ravens had some breakdowns with Brandon Stevens and and with tredavius White. But, I mean, they’re, they’re just not good enough. They’re not nearly good enough. Whereas now this week, the ravens are playing the varsity, you know, a fellow varsity team, right? I mean, this is two varsity, two heavyweights, going at it, whereas both these teams were playing and I think Denver was playing much better football at the end of the year than Pittsburgh. You know, I’ll give them credit. I thought the Broncos had a heck of a year. I think they were trending up, whereas Pittsburgh was clearly trending down. But both the ravens and the bills were playing the JB this weekend. Let’s call it what it was. No no one seriously thought that Pittsburgh was a Super Bowl contender. No one seriously thought that the Broncos, albeit a good year for them, making it, you know, with Bo Nicks as a rookie quarterback, no one viewed them as a serious Super Bowl contender. Out of the AFC, ravens and bills are both serious contenders, and again, only one team can win. So you know it, you certainly if you’re going to lose, you don’t want it to be, heaven forbid you make all these self inflicted mistakes, or you play your worst game of the season, or anything crazy like that. But if you lose, and it’s just two great teams going at it, and the other team makes one more play than you did. That’s a long off season. It’s bitter, it’s disappointing. It’s going to make the fans angry, but I don’t know if you can view that as some colossal indictment against John Harbaugh or Sean Sean McDermott, you know, because only one team can move on. I mean, this, this is the reality when, in my mind, the three best quarterbacks in football all reside in the AFC you know that that’s not everyone’s they can’t all get to the Super Bowl. So, you know, I think there’s the pressure for these teams to someone to beat Kansas City, but you know, first you got to try to, you know, you’re trying to beat each other to get that opportunity. And that’s where this game, that’s what makes this game so appealing, because you have, what have, what has been the two best quarterbacks in the league this year going at it and understanding that one of them is going to move on. And that’s exciting, but also an unsettling proposition for both both of these fan bases.
Nestor Aparicio 38:18
He is Lou Jones, we are W N, S T we’re getting you ready for the game on Sunday. Get ready for all the football this week, and also go talk some baseball here. Talk about the bullpen. Charlie Morton, all that. We’ll do a little baseball around here, Maryland, crab cake tours. A little bit of a hiatus. We had a plan at libs grill last week, and it’s snow. We’re going to be back at lips grill in Bel Air in February, but before that, we have a cup of soup or bowl. I’ll be releasing details later on in the week that is Super Bowl week. We’re getting a little crab soup away. I’m thinking about doing a crab soup tour later on in the summer as well. I was over Coco’s here they I will say this. I got a little bit of the final consummate from the burrito ramen at Nacho mamas. I slurped it down in Canton and I stained my Derrick Henry church. It looks like blood stains. I’m just going to leave that there for now. I don’t think I’m going to get it out until after the Super Bowl, but I’m wearing my Derrick Henry gear. Everybody’s ready to shuffle off the buffalo this week, Luke could be found at Baltimore, Luke and could be found back and forth, going to Owings Mills for all things Ravens. This week, we’re out on the internet. We’re out on social media. We’re everywhere you are. We appreciate all the folks watching us out on YouTube, setting a space on your dial at am 1570 as you drive around. He’s Luke, I’m Nestor. We got plenty more left. We are wnst am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore. Positive you.
