Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez are under contract. But what about the pitching? Luke Jones joins Nestor to discuss the first foray into free agency for Mike Elias with the budget of new Orioles ownership and a mandate to bring Baltimore a World Series.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discussed the Baltimore Orioles’ recent offseason moves, including the signing of Tyler O’Neill to a three-year, $49.5 million deal with an opt-out after one year. They debated the financial implications and strategic decisions behind this move, comparing it to potential contracts for Anthony Santander. They also discussed the need for starting pitching, mentioning potential targets like Nathan Eovaldi and Max Fried. The conversation highlighted the Orioles’ financial constraints and the importance of balancing spending with long-term goals, while also considering the impact of Juan Soto’s record-breaking deal with the Mets on the MLB market.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles free agency, Tyler O’Neill, injury history, multi-year deal, right-handed power, starting pitching, winter meetings, Juan Soto, Mets contract, payroll strategy, Adley Rutschman, bullpen strength, Felix Bautista, pitching needs, Gunnar Henderson
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore, positive. We hope you set a spot out on your radio dial to follow our journey. As I’m now 33 years into doing this crazy work, and was honored the other night by the roost, 50 people. They’ve been here 25 years. It feels like I was around a long time before they were doing what they were doing. Even go back before they were ravens around here being 15 point favorites against the New York football Giants. And I must say, Luke Jones and I have had several conversations in regard to the Orioles in the off season. Marty Conway has joined me in the off season talking about money and how much money they would spend and what the philosophy would be. I don’t know that. You know what happened over the weekend. And if you’re on the wnst tech service, you get it first. It’s all brought to you by Cole roofing. It’s free to join. Just text, 410-821-9678, just text W NST or join to those numbers and and we get you on the tech service. Luke, you sent out the text. And you know, the orals made some moves over the weekend, and none of it sort of broke the bank. And then the Juan Soto thing to the Mets happened on Sunday night, and that breaks the bank, and sort of gives us a reality check for what the industry is about, where the money is. Who knows what Mr. Rubenstein’s plans are. He hasn’t committed to saying anything Elias has said, and you have said, he’s a guy who works on the cheap for the most part. I don’t know. I mean, I don’t want to call it a garden variety, three year deal with a Red Sox player, no less, but a strategy to move the fences back. I mean, you know, they’re all about strategizing, and now they have an owner who’s allegedly not insane like the other guy was, I don’t know, but an owner who may be able to better support the franchise,
Luke Jones 01:55
yeah, well, I mean, Mike Elias, over the weekend, agrees to terms with Tyler O’Neill. It’s the first multi year free agent contract that Mike Elias has come to terms with the player over, obviously pending a physical. And I think that’s notable, actually, for Tyler O’Neill, given his injury history. And you know, you kind of look at where he’s been, obviously, years with the St Louis Cardinals, the talents never been in question, right? I mean, go back and look at his 2021 season. I think he was eighth, and NL, MVP voting that year. You’re talking about someone who has ability, someone who’s been when he’s been right, has been a Gold Glove caliber. You know, not Gold Glove caliber. He’s won a couple gold gloves in playing left field. But injuries, you know, you look at the fact that he’s played 100 plus games just twice in his major league career, going back to 2018 so we’re going to see how this plays out. I think you know, first of all, the caveat of a three year deal, $49.5 million you know the reported terms, it’s, there’s an opt out after a year. So if Tyler O’Neill has a big year, good for the Orioles, but then he’s probably going to opt out and you’re going to try to resign him, or you’re going to go sign someone else then. So if he doesn’t stay healthy, chances are, then, you know, there’s somewhere between him being great and being completely stuck with them. You know, there’s different outcomes there, but, and by
Nestor Aparicio 03:25
the way, this isn’t a big free agent contract, right? This is my garden variety, but you have to spend some money. I mean, I guess they haven’t, so we haven’t felt it or seen it and saying, Well, you know, 240 hitter getting 15 million a year, fair enough. You know, 60 million a year, whatever it is, right? Well,
Luke Jones 03:43
I mean, 240, that’s a but I try to broaden my horizons before just referring to someone as a Santander
Nestor Aparicio 03:50
is going to get more money than this, right? As an
Luke Jones 03:53
example, yeah, yeah. And Santander has a lower career on base percentage, you know, his similar in age has stayed healthier of late, but you know, we were talking about injuries for Santander a few years ago. So look, yeah, Santander is going to get more money. We’re going to see how it plays out,
Nestor Aparicio 04:14
more 70 million.
Luke Jones 04:18
I don’t I’ve been skeptical that anyone’s going to give him a five year deal, but the way this market is playing out, you know, I think he could get 100 plus million now, that’s going to be over five years, right? I mean, he’s not going to get like, three years, 105 million or something like that. Like, it’s not going to be double. Look, I’m
Nestor Aparicio 04:38
not here to spend Mr. Rubenstein’s money, but I wouldn’t give them that money. Well, I mean,
Luke Jones 04:41
I look, it’s funny, and look, I don’t want to lump all Orioles fans in together with this, because there’s always nuance with these discussions. But part of the discussion about the Orioles has been, you know, need another right handed bat? Right. I need some guys that have a different profile. And look, Tyler O’Neill is great against left handed pitching. He’s been a sub 700 ops guy against right handed pitching the last three years. I mean, he’s not going to be in a straight platoon, because you’re not, you’re not paying him what they committed to him to make it him the weak side of a platoon. But he’ll sit against some right handers here and there. I mean, they’ll do that. And look, the idea is hesitant. Curse dad, you know, is, you know, that’s a path for him to play a little bit more as well, because he’s 25 going on 26 and has shown enough when he’s been healthy to say, Hey, I’m intrigued by that guy. So, you know, we’re gonna see how this plays. Not
Nestor Aparicio 05:39
his glove, by the way, um,
Luke Jones 05:41
you know what? Yes and no, yes. I agree in terms of the old left field at Camden yard, which is funny to say, it’s now the old left field in Camden Yards. It’s
Nestor Aparicio 05:52
like New Coke, but, but that’s,
Luke Jones 05:55
I think he can play a perfectly fine right field at Camden Yards, if you just, you know, he’s up, he’s established. He’s playing not every day, but playing semi regularly. I think he can be fine, because he’s not a bad athlete. You know, he he’s not mark Trumbo out there, you know, where he’s real slow footed and all that. So, but, but, but the overall prevailing point I’m trying to make here is, heard so much about all the Orioles need to tweak some things here, and they need to augment and they need to make some changes here and there, and you’re not blowing this thing up. And so the idea that’s fine, I buy into that. But then, if you’re so hell bent on keeping Anthony Santander, how much are things really changing then? So and look, he he had a really good year. I’m not going to sit here and dismiss what he did, but it was a career year. Power wise, he was at his worst in 2024 when the Orioles as a team were at their best. Actually, you know, they were at their best the first two and a half months of the season. Go look at Santander’s numbers through Memorial Day. They weren’t very good. So, you know, my point with that is, you know, we’re not talking about an MVP kind of player, right? We’re not talking about a five or six win player here, like gunner Henderson, for example, who was more than that this past year. He’s a piece. He’s a piece, right? And he’s a good piece. And I like Santander, and they’re gonna have to replace that. And you know, Tyler O’Neal is gonna be part of that. I think Heston kerstadt, playing more is gonna be part of that. You know, with O’Neill, he’s got to stay healthy. There’s no question about that. But I think when you look at what they’re paying for, what he gives them, they we know they had deficiencies against left handed pitching. This guy rushes left handed pitching. You know, we’re going to see he’s got us. He’s got to stay on the field that that’s, well, that
Nestor Aparicio 07:47
was my first thought. Was like they look at their deficiencies and all of the grief they took all the last 90 days of the season about not having right handed power, not having right handed bats in that way to defend themselves against left handed pitching, that the first thing that they did was address that in the same way that last year, the first thing they did, it showed up on my timeline. Craig Kimbrel was something that, hey, man, our relief pitcher blew his arm out we got, and that wasn’t the reason they lost to the Rangers, uh, you know, 15 months ago, but it was still like, that’s our biggest problem. Is the back end of the ball. But this is before, means his arm blew up, you know, wells, Bradish, all, you know, just down the line where they thought, like, this time last year, their first order of business was addressing a right handed bat. Yeah,
Luke Jones 08:39
yeah. And look on paper it, I’m fine with it. I’m not doing cartwheels over it, but I’m fine with it, right? He had 31 home runs in 473 plate appearances last year. I mean, again, not great against right handed pitching, but against lefties. I mean, this guy crushes left handed pitching, so, I mean, I expect he’s going to hit clean up against left handed starters. I mean, that’s what I’m expecting to see, you know, with Tyler O’Neill. But again, the questions, the health, you know, go look, 2018 was his rookie year. So put that aside. But 2019 60 games, 2020 COVID year. So they only played 60 games, 50 games. So I’ll give him that he stayed mostly healthy that year. But 2021 that was his career year. 138 games. 537 played appearances. Those were his career highs. He was fantastic that year against right handers and left handed pitching. But since then, 96 games and 2272 games in 23 I mean, that’s why the Cardinals kind of said, Look, you know, we’re moving on. And they traded him to Boston, and he was on the IL three different times for for the Red Sox. Now they weren’t lengthy stays. He wasn’t on the IL for a month or for six weeks. But, you know, he had a concussion, he had a knee issue, and then he had a weird infection. Action he got in his leg that he missed some time as well. So those are sort of freaky weird. Yeah, yeah. So well and to get but this is also why he was available for three years, 49 million, as opposed to, I mean, if he was really durable. I mean, like I said, in 2021 he’s one of the best players in the National League. I mean, you’d be talking about someone at age 29 who would command a much greater commitment. That’s part of the reason why I’m sure he wanted an opt out, and why the Orioles probably said, You know what, we’re okay with that, because if he opts out, that means he had a heck of a year for us. And two things got great value, right, right? So, so that’s where you look at this thing. So, you know, you look at him, certainly adds right handed, thump, you know, we’ll get to Gary Sanchez in a moment as as their new backup catcher. Right handed. Thump. Once again. They’re moving the fences in. It’s not pre 2022 Camden Yards either. You know, it’s not a band box, but more right handed hitting friendly than it had been the last few years. And they’ve proceeded accordingly. And they’ve added a couple pieces, you know, more so O’Neill, as far as an everyday piece, but they’ve added some right handed thump. And for me, the next question is, okay, starting pitching. You know, it is Corbin burns at all in the conversation. Or are we talking about Max freed? Are we talking about Nathan of Aldi, who would, kind of avaldi would kind of be in that effluent tier, right? You know the guys that can still help you win. I mean, the Texas Rangers are very happy to have Nathan avaldi two years ago. I mean, he was their ace at that point in time, helping them win a World Series. So, you know, there’s, there’s different tiers here, but they certainly need to get starting pitching. We all know that however it’s going to look, it could be a trade. Keep in mind, the winter meetings are this week, you know. I mean, we’ve talked about crochet a lot, right? There have been, there were some reports on Sunday night, you know, from some national reporters that you know that that could be heating up again. Is it the Orioles? Is it another team? Who knows? They
Nestor Aparicio 11:52
call them blockbusters. We haven’t had many of those around here. Luke, yeah. And
Luke Jones 11:57
certainly, you know, I mean, nothing’s going to trump one, Soto getting, what, $765 million I mean, it’s just, I can’t even comprehend that. I mean, a 15 year deal, but the Mets do it. So I think now, though, this is where business picks up, because it’s not just the Mets do that. And okay, Soto’s set he’s going to the Mets. What do the Yankees do? What do the Dodgers do? You know? What? What do all these teams do? You know, not just those teams, but even the next tier, from a payroll standpoint, okay, the Soto Domino is the biggest domino to fall. What’s that mean for Corbin burns and Max freed and go down the list of you know, to Oscar Hernandez, go down the list of different players that we’ve talked about, whether for the Orioles or for someone else, you know, a potential fit. So, you know, the Mets are coming
Nestor Aparicio 12:46
in to try to steal the thunder. Though, by the way, the Saturday, their live skip was fantastic with the church lady. So I don’t know if you saw, I did not get a chance to see, oh, Dude, Juan Soto was, you know, one of the church ladies, in addition to Matt Gates and others, but, but it was hilarious, and the Juan Soto punch line was about signing with the Mets, and then one so to sign with the Mets. So it’s definitely worth watching, because I, like, was drinking coffee Sunday morning, and I blurred it out, and then 10 hours later, he actually signed with the Mets. Which, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Luke Jones 13:18
It’s funny though, how you said the Mets tried to steal thunder. It’s like, have you seen their payroll the last few years? I mean, that’s what was funny about the postseason. Remember, the perception was the Mets were these underdogs? It’s like, wait a second, go look at their payroll. They’re not underdogs. You know, this isn’t, this isn’t the Kansas City Royals from a decade ago. So, but yeah, Juan Soto to the Mets. I mean, the Yankees. I think it was, I think John Heyman said their bid was 760 million for 16 years. I mean, it’s wild, wild stuff, right? I mean, it’s any of these deals, you know. And it’s not even a commentary on what smart, not smart, whatever, just the idea of committing to any player in any sport for 14, 1516, years. I mean, it’s just, you think about that in terms of, not just put aside a baseball player’s career and how long that is, or any sport, how long their career might be. I think about those that in life terms, like a 17, you know, a 15 year deal. I’m gonna be 56 years old when that deal’s expired. Hey,
Nestor Aparicio 14:23
I’m 56 now, but I’m just No, no,
Luke Jones 14:27
no. I’m just saying, like, when you think about it in those terms, you just think about how it’s it’s hard to contextualize it. It’s so long you’ve been here 15 years
Nestor Aparicio 14:37
and it feels like I’ve known you my whole life. Yeah, yeah. I
Luke Jones 14:40
mean, 16 years actually,
Nestor Aparicio 14:41
yeah, yeah. I
Luke Jones 14:42
mean, I thought that when, you know, when Bryce Harper signed with the Phillies, I’m just like, man, like this, it’s a really long time. I mean, you think about where you are in that moment in your life, just as a baseball fan or as a media guy or whatever, and yeah, that player is going to be under contract for that team if they’re. Traded, or if they don’t opt out, which obviously there’s opt outs involved as well, but it’s wild, man. I mean, we’ve come a long way. I could still, I think I remember as a kid. I’m trying to think the first big contract that felt like really, really big money to me as a kid. I want to say it might have been the Ryan Sandberg deal, which was, what was that? Maybe five years, 25 million or something like that at the time. And I’m just thinking, wow, we’ve come a long way from that point. I mean, obviously that was over 30 years ago I’m talking about but it’s wild to think that, you know, the Yankees bid $760 million for a player, and they didn’t get them. They
Nestor Aparicio 15:42
weren’t the high bidder with that. So, wow, it’s something. But hey, it speaks a lot to want soda, wanting to be a mat to sort of like, I kind of thought that too. Sort of like, alright, you know. And if I’m the Yankees, I’m like, you know, f you if you don’t want to be a Yankee, you know, Mark to share a wanted to be a Yankee. Mike Messina wanted to be Yankee, for better or worse, rings or no rings, whatever, there was a point like where, especially being a Yankee, if you get a chance to be a Yankee, or a Laker, or, you know, a cowboy, or, you know, for whatever it would be worth to say you’re gonna leave the cowboys And sign with the Texans, or you’re going to leave the New York Rangers to sign with the islanders. Who would do? You know, it’s a mindset of, like, yeah, you
Luke Jones 16:29
literally just want every, every last nickel you can get, and look, hey, it’s America right at the end of the day. But anybody
Nestor Aparicio 16:36
knows anything that’s not a dumbass knows happiness is where it’s at. You know what I’m saying? Like, I could have made more money in various places doing this. I would not be happy at W, b, a, l, waking up every day, or at Odyssey radio, at the I mean, I saw the fan had a job listing, and I’m qualified, and I’m thinking, wouldn’t want to wake up doing that every day, even though it’s same job? I mean, there’s a whole part of Do you want to wake up and be a met every day the rest of your life? Or you want to wake up and be a Yankee, you know, like,
Luke Jones 17:07
and when Dodger, right? Yeah, sure, sure. I mean, it’s yeah, there. I agree with you, and I’m glad you brought that up, because,
Nestor Aparicio 17:14
or an Oriole, if you’re gonna person, right? Well,
Luke Jones 17:17
and you get, but you all, you get to the point where, look, I am not at all suggesting that anyone should sit there and deliberately take less money, right? We’re not talking about hometown discounts that are outrageously cheap or anything like that, right? Not talking about gunner Henderson, who, you know, we could be talking about being a $400 million player, $500 million player, a few years from now, whether it’s with the Orioles or someone else, he might be 770 I mean, who knows, right? I mean, he could be by then. Who knows. I
Nestor Aparicio 17:49
mean, well, that was my point about so not getting them on the cheap at this point, because I had a conversation with Tim Wendell last week, and she was her signing books. And I’m like, if you’re waiting on giving Henderson 700 million, somebody else might give me,
Luke Jones 18:00
yeah, but it’s also so it’s so tricky. And I don’t say this to defend the Orioles, this is just a commentary on baseball in general. We’re at such an inflection point with what’s going to happen with RSNs local TV rights, how all that’s going to play out, to try to project out what the next contract is going to be that exceeds Juan Soto, right? I mean, we thought Otani was going to be, you know, there were people who didn’t think Soto would eclipse Otani. I mean, I, you know, I’m not saying that anyone thought he was going to get substantially less, but I think there was some question whether he was going to eclipse what Otani got. And he did, because he got that and the way it sounds none of it’s deferred, whereas Otani, a lot of that money is deferred. So you know in terms of valuation and what that means for the future. But yeah, you just look at these deals, and there is still something to be said for how much is truly enough that you can still Puff out your chest, your agent can still puff out their chest, and you feel really good about the fact that you’re going to have a really good chance to win there for a long time. And I’m sorry, say what you want. I mean, look, the Mets have tried. They’ve spent money, they’ve made, they’ve made it to the playoffs. You know, it’s not as though it’s been completely wasted, but at the same time, if you’re looking at the Mets compared to the Dodgers, for example. I mean, I know who I like, whose chances I like better to continue to win and sustain and do that, because the Dodgers are not just spending money really well, but they’re an extremely well run organization. When you look at how great their farm system is too. So and
Nestor Aparicio 19:39
you get to play in the weather, and you get to play late nights, and the media is different than the New York media, and being in Queens is different than being in the Bronx, because I’ve been in them both. I’ve been in the stadiums, I’ve been in the environment. I’ve been in the parking lots. I’ve been on the subways, like the lifestyle, even if you’re just limo and in which they are driving their Lamborghinis or whatever it is. There is a point where lifestyle that you want, not that I want, that Manny Machado would want, would be different for a kid from Miami with a Hispanic background to say, I like San Diego better than I liked LA, and certainly better than that s hole Baltimore, where they didn’t spend any money, we couldn’t win. The owner was a creep. We had to play the Yankees and Red Sox. I’m out of there, and I got my bag, and I have a chance to win and be a part of something where, if I win, I get my statue next to Tony Gwynn, right? So, like, mindset wise, for all of these guys, for whatever ohtani’s mind and his gambling buddy, and I want to be a Dodger and not an angel. I mean, it’s not for me to say that row was extremely happy being a Seattle Mariner, because that probably was way better for him than being in Hollywood and being in LA and being a little bit off the grid. And for people that that have that success, I don’t mean Cal Ripken and George Brett. I don’t mean and by the way, they’re doing a thing on Michael Jack Schmidt, I can’t wait to watch that one. But the modern era of being a rock star and getting, you know, making $50 million a year and needing security and all of that stuff, I don’t know whether it would be, you know, I don’t I I’m out of it, and I travel into it, and I watch it and all, and I’m saying to myself, whatever decision you made to take the money to go be a met instead of being a Yankee, you have some conviction about that, because Messina never wanted to pitch in New York. He’s a small town guy and all that. Joe Torrey called him and brought him up there, and they showed him where he could live 15 minutes from the ballpark that had nothing to do with New York and had trees and had a backyard that he had never really seen it or felt it. Juan Soto’s felt all of this. So if Juan Soto is happy taking money from the Mets, God bless him. But it is a little curious to me that, yeah, it is a little curious to me as to whether he’s going to be like Messina and my buddy Dave Muir always says he has a nude ring finger. Yeah, and Juan Soto doesn’t have a nude ring figure already. He already won, right? But I would also
Luke Jones 22:03
say this, and as we’re talking about this, because, again, I don’t know one Soto from Adam, right in terms of, oh, he
Nestor Aparicio 22:09
seems like a typical baseball prima donna jerk. But what do I know? Right? Right? But, but
Luke Jones 22:13
you kind of look at it through the lens of, you know, if you’re the Mets here, it’s funny saying this, here’s my pitch, because the pitch is obviously 700 plus million dollars over 15 years, but understanding the Yankees were offering similar, right, at least similar, you know, you look at it and you say, You know what? Juan, they already have, Aaron judge, Babe Ruth played there. Lou Gehrig played there, Joe DiMaggio, Mickey Mantle. Go down the list. You know, not just Hall of Famers. We’re talking about Hall of Famers amongst the Hall of Famers, who’s the greatest met in the history of that franchise, Tom Seaver. But Tom Seaver also played elsewhere, right? I mean, he’s not, he’s not the greatest pitcher of all time. You know, I wouldn’t put him number one. Certainly up there. But does Tom Seaver have the same Mystique as Babe Ruth, for example? No.
Nestor Aparicio 23:10
So if you’re the Mets, I think a strawberry and rusty Stob, right? David, David Wright,
Luke Jones 23:16
and, you know, like guys that were really good, but not for 15 years, like he’s getting for the Mets, right?
Nestor Aparicio 23:23
You have a chance to transform. He has
Luke Jones 23:26
a chance to be the Babe Ruth of the New York Mets. I mean, he really does, does that. And look, that might not mean a lick to him, because ultimately, he got the highest he took the highest offer. It and might just truly be that simple for Scott Boris, it often is right so, but that’s the only thing I would say in terms of trying to weigh Yankees versus Mets. It’s like, okay, well, they already have judge. He’s already the captain. They already, you know, they’re already the greatest franchise in the history of professional baseball. We all know all that. You know, I’m not sitting but it would speak volumes
Nestor Aparicio 24:00
to me if he took 800 million from the Marlins to go down there and be like, you know, you want to transform something, transform something. That’s nothing, the Mets thing, just, I, you know, I don’t know. It’s weird,
Luke Jones 24:12
you know. I mean, the Mets haven’t won a World Series since 1986 right? I mean, I mean, they’re, they’ve been to some more, you know, to a couple World Series. But you know, I guess for me again, in addition to, obviously the money, which is the overwhelming 99.5% driving force here, but if you’re looking for that extra half percent, you know that would be your pitch, if you’re the Mets, to say, hey, the Yankees. The Yankees have this mystique and this history that, frankly, we don’t have. You can be that guy. You could go down. You’re you already have a chance to go down as one of the great players of the last 50 years. You’re already on that kind of a path, right? I mean, when you look at what he did starting at age 19 for the nationals, and what he’s been from that point on, and how young. He still is that, you know, he can be the greatest met of all time. You know, he can bring the Mets of their first World Series in 40 years, right? I mean, so, you know, but, but at the end of the day, yeah. I mean, it’s, you kind of look at it and say, If what the Yankees offer that John Heyman put out there Sunday night is on the up and up, and wasn’t like, Okay, what was the real offer? You know, those, one of those kind of scenarios then, yeah, you do kind of look at it and say, did you really want to be a met that much more than than a Yankee or a Dodger, or was it they threw a few more nickels your way? And you said, Oh, I’ll take that. Which, hey, again, that’s your prerogative. I
Nestor Aparicio 25:37
do wonder, if you know, as I wear my curio wellness, orange, you know, Baltimore bird swag, that if this morning, Rubenstein showed up his money bags and delivered this, it’s well within the purview of their finances to say we’re going to put 50 million a year on the books based on where they are. And I don’t know that it moves needles. I don’t know that it sells tickets from people who are on the fence. I know it doesn’t sell. It doesn’t make poor people rich people. It doesn’t make a $20 ticket holder by $50 tickets. I you know again, so I don’t know how they have Johnny Bravo the fan base here, and Katie Griggs to go through the fist fight you and I had here, and people who listened to it three weeks ago about Stockholm Syndrome and saying they can’t afford it. We can’t we’re not a big market. We can’t have nice things. We can’t have. Well, I mean, this is where the ball field’s going to be for gunner Anderson or Adley rutschman or Jordan westburg, or anybody else that winds up going to the Hall of wherever that there’s going to be money that needs to be spent. And they spend, you know, spend $50 million over the weekend in a blink. And it feels like a lot when you consider like what players make in other sports and what entertainers make, or whatever, but on a baseball level, it was a garden variety, 50 million just thrown away. You’re wowed by $760 million I would be wowed by anything that would move the Oriole franchise in a way, and I am in agreement with you, by the way, even though I took the other side of the argument two weeks ago, and I feel bad that we got in the fight we got into. I don’t feel like they needed to sign him today. I don’t. I don’t feel like he needed to be an Oriole today. I still feel like the franchise needs to establish what it’s going to be, because if it’s going to be we can’t afford nice things, then let’s not talk about gunner Henderson being here, you know, like, and that’s the Garden of Eden for the whole sport. And by the way, Tim Wendell knows John Hellyer, and said to me, he thinks he can get John hell you’re on the I might wet myself. I might be. It might be like the John Wooden or the Paul Rogers interview, where I might, I don’t even know what I would say to John, hell, you’re but when you talk about the Garden of Eden for all of this, and how unbalanced all of this is, is that, as an Oriole fan, I wake up today and say, Well, we, we can’t afford good we can’t have nice things, or that’s, that’s too much money for me. And if that’s the case for David Rubenstein, he probably shouldn’t have gotten into this game, because at some point, if they’re going to play the we’re the pirates, we’re the Royals, we’re going to be a bottom 10, and we’re just going to play along, and we’re going to have those young guys and like, Okay, I mean, yeah, I and that sells, because I see it on oral chat and Camden chat, and to the the fans that want to play that game of, we’re going to have $100 million payroll and play against 300 million forever. That’s, you know, that’s not good enough. And and the franchise needs to be nice to people like me and everybody else to get my money and everybody else’s money, because this is the money that’s going to fund this, and they don’t have the money tree of mass and that they ever thought it was going to be or that Peter and the boys pocketed the money before they got out the side door. But it is a telling thing, and it’s telling to me that I am Stockholm Syndrome right with you, and saying, Well, it’s probably better they didn’t spend the money. Well, because that’s the easy way to say, because it probably is better they didn’t spend the money, really.
Luke Jones 29:07
And what my argument has always been, and, you know, this goes back to it, look, there’s nothing to feel bad about. I mean, there was healthy debate, right? I mean, you know me, I’m a pro wrestling guy, you know, sometimes it cut a promo and it gets a little heated, right? But there’s always been a wide net between the one Soto contract and being the raise, right? I mean, there’s a huge range of outcomes between those two extremes, right? And I’m right there with you that the Orioles need to find something that’s healthy in that range that is certainly committing more money than what they have in recent years. And look, that’s fine. I didn’t want them to go spend money three or four years ago when they stunk, I mean, like that. That didn’t make sense. But if they
Nestor Aparicio 29:51
want soda today, you would have thought they’re serious, you know, I mean, and right now, they’re not serious. They’re just, they’re just, see, I.
Luke Jones 29:59
I push, I What? What do you mean by serious? I mean, see, see, this is where I’m gonna push back pictures. Okay, that’s, that’s fine. But just because you don’t spend $700 million on one ball player doesn’t mean that you’re not serious about winning. No. It means
Nestor Aparicio 30:16
you’re not gonna sign the best players. That’s what it means. It means that the best of the best players you’re going to pass on. But let’s based on economics, in the same way that if you go in a restaurant and you see a $75 steak and a $20 steak, you might think it’s a meal, and I’m going to get by tonight. There’s
Luke Jones 30:35
also a $30 steak, there’s also a $40 steak, there’s also a $45 steak. See again, I, you know, I just, I grow tired of this. All they have to, you know, their payroll has to be this or they’re not trying to win. Now, that’s that, that’s, you know, I’ve used the St Louis Cardinals example for probably going on a year and a half now, in terms of one example of a model that I think the Orioles should try to ascend to, to try to emulate, to try to be, which, by the way, Goliath, Mike and Mike Elias came from that model, right? So, so again, and that’s where I’m right with you, and wanting them to augment and add, and not just one of the things that I’ve, you know, and I mentioned this in passing, talking about Garrett crochet. I mean, you know, I don’t want this to be that the only way the Orioles can go get a legitimate starting pitcher is they have to go trade a bunch of prospects to do it. That’s not how you’re going to maintain a pipeline for the long term, right? You know, you make, make trades when they make sense, but also go spend money when it makes sense, right? I mean, when it’s, you know, go out and get max freed, or, or Nathan of Aldi, who’s not going to be anywhere close to what Corbin Burns is, or resigned Corbin burns, I don’t know, right? I mean, it, it sounds like they’ve that that door is not closed, from my understanding. I don’t know how realistic it is that they’re going to choose that door. Monty Hall, yeah. I mean, look, and look, it’s, it’s a lot of money, I think, including with Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez, who, we haven’t even mentioned, Gary Sanchez, $8 million for a backup catcher. You know that we, if the prices have told us anything, it’s, they’re not going down, right? I mean, the prices aren’t going down. That’s, that’s for certain. So you can look at these deals, and I’m as guilty of this as anyone I’ve I’ve said to you, there are compelling baseball reasons to look at Corbin burns profile over the last four years and say that’s not someone you want to commit a seven or eight year contract to when he has a strikeout rate That’s gone down four straight years. However, however, despite you know that commentary in a vacuum, you’re not negotiating and buying for free agents in a vacuum, it’s driven by the market. And if the market dictates certain prices for certain players, you can either ask, you know, you can either acknowledge that and go get the player that you really want, if that’s the guy you really want, and spend a little more for him, or you can say, Nope, not going to do it. And then you know you are in a position where you know you’re not. I don’t want to say it limits your ceiling entirely, but it’s limiting your ceiling somewhat, right? I mean, things have to go you have a smaller margin for error. That’s the better way to put it, I think, than limiting the ceiling. So you know that that’s where we look at the Orioles right now. And look, I’m fine with the O’Neill signing, like, if he’s healthy, I think he’s going to be a great addition for their bat, for their lineup, you know, right handed bat with pop, you know, especially with a revamped left field in Camden. Yards, good. Yep. Gary Sanchez, you know that one? You know, he’s better bat than than James McCann, I guess you know, his defense has rebounded a little bit more than I had thought the last couple years. I mean, keep in mind, Gary Sanchez was Adley rutschman for the Yankees, uh, eight, nine years ago, right? He was, he was, I remember it well. He was kind of profiled. It thought of as being the next great Yankee. And he had, he was gonna be Yogi Berra and and things, you know, right around the pandemic, things really went south for him there. So he’s rebounded a little bit. He had a really good year for the Padres two years ago, you know, back up for the for the Brewers last year. You know, he’s not gonna play a whole lot, I’m because I think I’m still gonna work under the assumption that Adley rutschman The last three months of 2024, was still an aberration and something health wise and just weird. Because, boy, that’s
Nestor Aparicio 34:28
the biggest question we’re going to have on it
Luke Jones 34:29
is, right? I mean, look at a lot
Nestor Aparicio 34:32
of what we pitching. We’ve got a lot of questions about to be Adley rutschman Again, right? I mean, if he does that, and we’re not going to answer that question until April, right? I mean, there’s not until May. Maybe, right? I mean, I mean, he doesn’t hit the ball. He hits the ball at Spring training, but he goes out of spring training, he’s hitting a buck and a quarter.
Luke Jones 34:49
Wow. You know, I mean, as much as I don’t like to make too much of spring training numbers, yeah, on the heels of how his season finished up, yeah, that would be a little unsettling. I. At the at the very least so. But, you know, mentioning Adley rutschman, I don’t mean this to deflect what we were talking about, because we’re talking about payroll possibilities. We’re talking about free agent possibilities, in addition to what they just did over the weekend. But so much of this is still counting on. Is there another level for gunner Henderson, who? That’s a lot to ask, because gunner Henderson was already a top five player in the American League this year, right? He was the first three months of the season. He was my MVP of the Al, you know, over Aaron judge. Now, what
Nestor Aparicio 35:31
do you want out of gunner Anderson? More doubles, more Homers. What
Luke Jones 35:34
do you mean, like, literally, I mean more consistency. Maybe get a little bit better against the left hand. I mean, he’s already improved against left handed pitching from where he was as a where he was as a rookie, but can he get a little bit more control? 23 Henderson, gunner. Henderson, 23 Yeah. I mean, you’re right. I mean, it’ll be 24 right? I mean, he’s Cal Ripken, you know, I at that point in his career, let me be clear. At that point in his career, he’s, well, I
Nestor Aparicio 35:57
would agree with you. There aren’t two $765 million deals for two guys like that, but you better be thinking about the nickels for him and where that’s going to
Luke Jones 36:04
go. Sure, yeah, no question. And I right, I and that’s fine if, if the idea is, look, we’re not going to be in the Juan Soto business, and 25 of those teams in baseball, we’re in that same Luke with
Nestor Aparicio 36:24
this money thing. And I keep jumping in here, but my point is, eventually you’re going to be in the Juan Soto business, either keeping your guy or losing your guy. You know what I mean? Like, sure, if you grow players, eventually you’re you’re in the same business, even though you think you’re not. And the fans think, well, that’s just for those six or eight teams that have that money. You have to go compete with those teams, with your own players, and with Machado, we didn’t feel it so much here, and the Chris Davis thing and the old man, and how weird it all is here, in general, the Stockholm syndrome we all have that nothing’s ever been normal here, that this would be the most normal thing, right? Is to keep your own hero, right? Sure, sure.
Luke Jones 37:07
And look, we’re gonna see how that plays out, right? I mean, we’re gonna see if it’s on the table to do an extension prior to him getting the free agency, which it feels like the clock’s ticking, significantly for that already, right? I mean, we don’t know for sure, but your point’s well taken. I’m not. My point has never been to be the raise, right? I mean, it’s never been that, you know, understanding they’re also not going to be the Dodgers, right? You know, because that’s just, you know, they’re not, they’re not going to have that degree of resources, no matter how well you you, because it’s just the market’s not that big. It’s not that big, but, yeah, you got to look at this through the long term lens, and that that’s part of the reason why I kind of bristle at the idea of continuing to just trade away your prospects, right? Go out and sign up, go sign a pitcher, right? Don’t, don’t trade away three more prospects for a pitcher who you’re then going to have to sign anyway. Go sign a pitcher, and you don’t have to give up all the prospects. And then you can continue to supplement and augment your major league roster with what you’re doing at Norfolk and what you’re doing not buoy anymore. What Chesapeake, I guess double a Chesapeake,
Nestor Aparicio 38:16
I’ll leave it with this, because we’re we’ll go all night with this. Sure if they had to play baseball tomorrow, they wouldn’t be very good team. What, you know, like as I look at the pitching. I mean, I think the pitching is a problem for them because of the arms that fell off and the amount of money they’re gonna have to spend to augment it, that they have effluent, and then what? And and, you know, I guess Rodriguez, you’ll say, healthy. Fine. I don’t I don’t like them without Corbin burns or something that feels like Corbin burns. And I certainly don’t like that without the notion that this time last year, we’re talking about the bradishes and the means and the wells and the guys that were really going to be stalwart guys. You can pitch me Dean Kramer. You could pitch me some of these guys that feel like fifth starters, that you’re trying to say maybe they could be a two one day or a useful three. I you know, they want 101 games two years ago, and they’re going to be a long time. It’s hard to win under one games, as we found out. And they had quote,
Luke Jones 39:16
doesn’t matter that much either. Yeah, that much to win 101 games either. I mean, it’s just look. I’m not going to sit here and say that I’m okay with where they are pitching wise. I’ll say this, I think they’re bullpens in a better spot. Felix Batista coming back. I mean, I’m not I know you can’t say with 100% certainty that he’s going to be every bit as dominant as he was two years ago, but he’s had a long enough time with the Tommy John rehab and everything to have a reasonable expectation that he’s going to be good in the back end of your bullpen, right? And that’s you brought back Dominguez. You still have Cano. You You know, you have Gregory Soto, who pitched pretty well in the month of September. You know, you didn’t bring back any coulomb, which I was. Prized by but I really makes me wonder what they thought about the health of his elbow at the end of last. See, this
Nestor Aparicio 40:04
is where, like, the Travis Rogers thing is, like, if you had Rogers, yeah, Trevor, excuse me, I know what Travis right. Trevor, Rogers,
Luke Jones 40:11
yeah, no, you’re okay. Well, we’ll see. I mean, look that they, they clearly like something they saw in him, right? And obviously it blew up in terms of any short term return, but they do have two years of club control remaining on him, and they clearly liked him, because not that Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers are projected to be future all stars or anything like that, but especially in the case of Norby, still with someone that projected to be able to help them, right? I mean, Stowers, we’ll see, you know? I mean, I think there’s a big enough sample now to really wonder if he’s more of a quad A player than someone who’s going to be a bona fide, legitimate major leaguer. We’ll see. I’m rooting for him because I like that kid. He’s a really nice kid. Worked hard, you know, didn’t necessarily get the best opportunity at times. But the point is, they gave up. They did give up some real assets. They weren’t from mere top 15 in baseball prospects, but they were real assets, and they clearly like trouble. Trevor Rogers, so hey, what’s he going to look like in spring? You know, is he going to be healthy? How’s the Vilo, how’s the movement on his pitches? Is he going to look more like the guy he was three years ago, which, with the Marlins, there was some thought at that point that that guy could be a guy that’s in the Cy Young mix moving forward. That’s what kind of thought there was at him on him three years ago. But three years ago was a long time ago. So now we’ll see what that looks like if he looks better. And again, they, they obviously need a starting picture. They need at least one, if not two, right? I mean, they need one at a minimum, and a real one, not, oh, you know, go sign, you know, go sign someone to, you know, Jordan Lyles, right. We’re not talking about Kyle Gibson even. You know, we’re talking about aiming, needing to aim much higher than that. We all know that. But if you do that, and then you throw him into the mix, and suddenly he looks more like he did three years ago. And then, yeah, you still have Zach Eflin. You have a healthy Grayson Rodriguez, you know, you still have Dean Kramer. Where does Albert Suarez fit into that picture? I mean, I don’t want to forget about him. He was really good for them last year. You know, that was a great story. You can’t count on him doing that again. But I’m also not going to say he can’t do it again. And then you start to get into okay, can Kyle Bradish come up? Come back in August? You know, not saying he’s gonna be your race at that point, but could he help you in a final pennant push? I don’t know. But yeah, they need to go get pitching. There’s no question if they were to line up today, you know, they wouldn’t be like a bad losing team. I mean, Corbin burns wasn’t worth that much by himself, but they’d be more middling than serious contender to me, you know, like, if that’s what, I
Nestor Aparicio 42:53
mean, that’s what the 101 wins a long way off, sure, with the pitching they currently have, you know, they’re not in 101 game. Yeah, they’re not the organization as comprised. And right to your point, you want to win more games, you better spend, you better buy some $30 million pitchers, because, like that, that’s the only way this thing right now is going to get better between here and there. It’s not going to get better by bringing in three Kyle Gibson’s, you know, or even finding an effin signing an effin
Luke Jones 43:24
mentioned Nathan of Aldi. Like Nathan of Aldi to me, that would be another fn like deal, which, hey,
Nestor Aparicio 43:30
I’m not opposed to that, but you certainly need to augment. It’s a downgrade from Corbin burns to Nate evolve.
Luke Jones 43:37
It is, although it’s funny. Go look at the numbers. I’m not sure it’s as dramatic for what the contract that Corbin Burns is going to be now, of all these four years older, right? Like, I’m not, let me just say there are, there are every year and this, if you recall, we were having this conversation, what three off seasons ago. Now, I really wanted the Orioles to go sign a Nathan avaldi type when, when they settled for Kyle Gibson. And look, Kyle Gibson was fine. He did exactly what you would expect him to do. But if they had added Nathan avaldi to at that point in time, you know, I’m not saying they win the World Series, but their rotation is in better shape than they don’t
Nestor Aparicio 44:22
want a game in Texas.
Luke Jones 44:24
Maybe, maybe, I mean, right? Because he wouldn’t have pitched against them. He would have been on their side. But,
Nestor Aparicio 44:28
well, you can’t get much better than getting the buy and win 101 win. You know what I mean like. But I guess the position
Luke Jones 44:33
my point here, I guess I’m trying to make if you’re not going to go sign Corbin burns, fine, you better make sure you hit on at least one of those second or third tier kind of guys that works out really, really well. I mean, the Rangers couldn’t have asked for better than what I’ve already gave them the last couple years, and that’s even with him missing time two years ago. You know, keep in mind, he he spent some time on the IL. That year even. So, you know, it’s not as though you need that. It has to be an ace that’s on the matinee or, you know, like up on the on the display, you know, but they certainly need another guy that that’s going to fit in the top half of the rotation. I mean, that’s, that’s the captain obvious statement right now, so, but that’s also under with the assumption that you need Grayson Rodriguez to stay healthy, and you need Felix Bautista in the bullpen to stay healthy. You need your offense to rebound from whatever the last two months of the season was. You need that, not just, sadly, rushman, but across the board, right? I mean, you know, and they, obviously, they made changes with the hitting coach and all that. So, you know, there’s, I want to be clear, I’m in agreement with you. Yes, they need to add starting pitching at the same time. There’s still a really good base to work with here, right? I mean, this is not a, this isn’t a team that I view right now as a 74 win team or anything like that. They’re way better than that. But, yeah, if you want to be taken seriously in terms of taking the next step and not just making the playoffs, but positioning yourself to win games in the playoffs. Look, the pitching wasn’t the problem against the Royals, right? I mean, even Game Two at you know, effling got lifted after four innings. I mean, their bullpen pitch fine, and that was from after guys like me kept saying their bullpen wasn’t good enough. It wasn’t good enough. It wasn’t good enough, which I still had my doubts. It would have been good enough for three and a half weeks
Nestor Aparicio 46:26
of that. It wasn’t good enough to get out of the first two days, right? They could
Luke Jones 46:29
have won it, won a couple games, if their offense did anything. So, you know, it’s a long off season. There’s still a lot to be done. I certainly hope that Tyler O’Neill and Gary Sanchez was not it. I don’t think that’s it. You know, they invested some money here. It’s not 700 million, but real money, no real money. It’s a start. But, yeah, they need to go get a pitcher. And, you know, we’ll see if it, you know, it could be, could be Corbin birds. It could be Garrett crochet. It could be Nathan of Aldi. It could be max freed. I mean, there’s lots of different potential outcomes out there, but whatever it is, they certainly need to add. There’s no question about that, if you’re not bringing back Corbin burns, and I still don’t expect that to be the outcome, you know, who knows? Maybe the Yankees end up throwing an extra 100 million dollars at him now in response to losing Soto. But, you know, they they got it. They need to go out and and fortify the rotation. There’s no question about that. Because, you know, you know, very simply, that Kyle Bradish, you know, is at best a maybe for a month or two in 2025 at best. So you certainly need to do something here, if it’s not going to be Corbin burns returning the winter
Nestor Aparicio 47:39
meetings underway Major League Baseball. I’m wearing my orange, my curio orange, and foreign daughter, uh, Luke Jones can be found at Baltimore. Luke the Orioles taking on the the, excuse me, the Ravens taking on the Giants this weekend, the Orioles taking on free agency this weekend and taking on at least one contract. We’ll see where Anthony Santander winds up, as well as all this pitching this week. So if anything happens, and we are under new ownership and new management around here, so anything’s possible, except Juan Soto, who’s going to the Mets, you’ll get it first from the W n s t tech service. All of that brought to you by our friends at cole roofing. And you could join by texting w n s t or join to 410, 821967, 8219678, big week ahead. Here with football and a happy, happy holiday, we got the Maryland crab cake tour back out on road with our friends at the Maryland lottery. We’re going to be at Faith Lee’s on Wednesday at Lexington market next week. We move to a meet cheese on Tuesday and little literally, and then on Wednesday, back over to Dundalk in my homeland of Costas in on Wednesday afternoon. Happy holidays to everybody out there celebrating. Get ready for a whole bunch of football in a real short period of time here as well as who knows that Mike Elias and the Orioles are going to do? He’s Luke. I’m Nestor. We are W NSD. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore positive.
