On a night when the Orioles’ bats awakened, it was the arm of Albert Suarez that continues to get the job done in a September pennant race. Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the Orioles’ overall pitching hopes after another strong start from the Venezuelan righty at Fenway Park.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
game, innings, suarez, pitches, point, good, week, orioles, runs, hit, feel, albert, bullpen, pitching, talked, october, ball, rotation, oyster, starting
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are, W, N, S, T, Towson, Baltimore, Baltimore, positive. We’re am 1570 we hope you set a place out on your radio dial. We are. We’re trying to grow our little mothership. It’s football season, it’s baseball season, it’s crab cake season, it’s definitely oyster season, because September has an R, kind of like pirates of the Penzance, the Gold Rush, sevens doublers. We’ll have these at the Fells Point oyster festival. I’m going to be at Cooper’s on Friday morning into the afternoon, Springsteen’s in town, Pearl Jam’s in town. I won’t be hungover because I’m too old for that, but I’ll be rock and roll hungover, you know, after three hours with Eddie Vetter and and stone and, you know, and a boy. So it’s gonna be a great, great weekend. Marilyn lottery is bringing that to you. Our friends at Jiffy Lube, multi care, get us out on the road doing everything we’re doing. And the oyster recovery partnership sending me out on the road on behalf of oysters and crabs and clean Chesapeake Bay Area. I’m trying to eat as many oysters as I can, get them out of the water. I am just having, like, an incredible oyster eating experience. Follow that. It’s MD, oyster tour. MD, oyster tour. All of that brought to you by our friends at Liberty, pure solutions. I finally got a Liberty pure some swag. I have hats and shirts, but actually have the water. This is the real water from Liberty, pure solutions. You can find them at 800-253-2692 I don’t have to remember that 800 clean water is all you need to know. Luke Jones has been watching baseball, and I swear the point where I plug my Eric Costa letter in advance of Pearl Jam plug my journalistic Declaration of Independence that I gave last week. So I’ve been writing a lot, talking a lot, but boy, it’s the Albert Suarez thing and the pitching and him being sort of like, I don’t say MVP, but certainly the savior of the program here at various points where he’s been the most resilient of all the guys, and maybe even more consistent than anybody else. And, you know, overachiever, wherever we are, it’s the middle of September, and if you had to start game one because they don’t match up right, because they’re fighting to the end to try to win a division, and they lose or whatever, I’d be okay with that right now. I think I could get five, six innings out of Albert Suarez three weeks from now. I feel real good about him, Luke.
Luke Jones 02:19
It certainly wouldn’t surprise me at this point. And it’s funny, you mentioned MVP, and I mean, he’s not the Orioles most valuable player, but I did have a friend late in the night on Tuesday as the game was wrapping up, and Sir Anthony Dominguez closed out the five three win, who posed the question, is Albert Suarez comeback Player of the Year in Major League Baseball. And I started thinking about it. And look, we talked about this a little bit last year with Joe Flacco winning comeback Player of the Year. You know, there’s always the question of when it’s just someone who didn’t have, like a smoking gun as it pertained to adversity, right? I mean, a lot of times we think of comeback Player of the Year, someone who comes back from a serious illness. I mean, that was the one thing you know, Damar Hamlin, Joe Flacco beating him out like people thought that was nuts. And personally, I thought, you know, I would have given it to tomorrow, Hamlin, because Joe Flacco had a great year. But what did he really come back from? Right? So, so there’s always that question, but then you think about it and you say, Okay, well, no one really comes to mind coming back from this major injury in Major League Baseball to be unbelievable. You know, there’s no human element story. I don’t think you know, I was thinking about it Tuesday evening a while. And you just think about Albert Suarez. I mean, he’s been all over the world trying to continue this. He hadn’t pitched since in the major since 2017 I think he’s a really good candidate for that. And I’m not saying that’s the most prestigious of prestigious hardware that you can win, but when you consider what he’s been for the Baltimore Orioles and even, like, let’s think back to the last start. He didn’t pitch well against the White Sox last week. And every time he has a start like that, I think there’s a natural feeling, not so much that, oh, he’s been figured out. The other shoe has dropped. But more so is this guy getting tired. You know, we’ve talked about his workload, probably going back to July. We were talking about innings and that he pitched him winter ball. And, you know, the fact that the Orioles signed him late, you know, in the fall last year, and he was working out, and you always wonder, going back and forth between the rotation and the bullpen, but lo and behold, he goes out there on Tuesday night against a lineup that featured left handed hitters, obviously use the change up, and he had a season high 21 swings and misses. Season, you know, season high eight strikeouts. He was really, really good. Not just got good results, but was just really good, and he just continues to impress. I I said, if he’s starting in the postseason for them, because of what you just said, depending on how the schedule falls and the rotation sets up, I won’t be surprised if he pitches Well, then. Again, because he’s just been that good for them, and he’s got an era of 3.39 and he’s just continued to be big for them. And it feels like every time they’re teetering a little bit, and they’ve teetered a lot the last two and a half months, we know that, but it feels like so many different times where they’re in that spot where you know, suddenly you’ve lost three in a row like they had, gives them an outing that just gives them a great chance to win. And it’s just, it’s such a good story, but they have really needed him. So No, he’s not the team MVP, but he’s up there on the list when you start to rank and go through who has been so reliable for them, really from and he wasn’t on the opening day roster, but he arrived pretty soon thereafter. You know, in fact, I think he was the one who replaced it. Replaced Tyler wells in the rotation in mid April, but he’s just been enormous for them. And he was once again on Tuesday night, pitching six strong innings. And like I said, the swing and miss being as good as he’s been all season. Gonna
Nestor Aparicio 06:02
channel my inner Jim Palmer for you, or, you know, maybe my inner gym cot, I’m not sure, but, or die even. Ton Sutton, I’ll throw him in. Bly Levin, throw any of those guys in it through 300 innings back in the day, and you young guys, and you stat guys, I feel like I’m yelling at at Mad Dog as Joey vato I’m not sure, but you stack guys all are concerned about the fragility of 125 innings, or 150 innings, you know, to some degree, dude, I would just say to you, he might just be that Bulldog. I remember back when I was a real media member, 30 years ago, Mark Williamson was that guy with the Orioles that if you ask Ben, you see Ben McDonald, ask him about Willie’s arm. Say, tell me about Willie’s arm. How is different than everybody else’s? It was like he was double jointed or something, because he could go out and throw three and a third the next day. Still give you an inning. He didn’t care if it was 53 pitches yesterday, 31 today, 14 tomorrow. He always had an inning in him. Didn’t matter. He just was sort of in that sort of shape. And then you think about what Palmer sits there up in the booth with his polishing his ring and, you know, and his tan and all of that, and looks at all of this and says, This should shock anybody that there’s a guy like Albert Suarez that has kept themselves strong. If I brought Leo Mazzoni in, he would say, guys got pitch every day. They got throw every day. They threw every day. That’s how I did it with Glavin. That’s how I did it with Maddox. That’s how I did it with Smoltz. Look at the results we had, and that’s what Mazzoni would say, they gotta go. They gotta go. They gotta go. They gotta pitch. They don’t have to pitch 330 innings. You know, like Nolan, they don’t need to be that. But I think asking for 90 or 100 pitches for six months or eight months out of a guy who is built a little bit like a tank, a Venezuelan tank, when I think of Albert’s, he’s got a little Bartolo cologne. He got a little little something with him, you know, little thickness about him. I don’t know it’s it’s about tendons and arms and strengthening. I think a lot of it, you would say, God, given that, some guys tendons are a little different than others, and they’ve done more damage than others. Maybe he wasn’t a kid breaking curveballs when he was 14, screwing his arm up. I don’t know, but I’m not shocked that somebody out there is the outlier. That’s just like Mark Williamson was, in my vernacular, not Jim Palmer, but just like an old picture, if Flanagan were alive, he’d say there that dude just a bulldog, and you give him the ball. And not everybody’s Jack Mars, but some guys are, and some guys get stronger as it goes on. Schilling was that guy. I mean, they’re just guys built for it a little bit more. I don’t know. I don’t you being younger, and this the way you follow baseball, you tend to worry more, and guys arms are all falling off every day, and Barry bloom. And I were talking about that the other day. I don’t know. I mean, he just feels, to me like he’s going to be fine for the next six weeks. And I’m going to think that way because of what I’ve saw with my eyes and what you saw with your eyes, right? Yeah,
Luke Jones 09:01
I mean, and look, I wasn’t saying that, implying that he was injured. It’s more so just, you know, you go back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen. And not that he’s done that a ton, but he’s had a couple stints out in the bullpen. And just his journey, and the fact it affects
Nestor Aparicio 09:17
some guys different than others, though, I would say, really it does. But at
Luke Jones 09:20
the same time, I’m going to use the same term that I always use with you when we talk about in the NFL, guys are durable and throw they’re not anymore, right? I mean, there are plenty of pitchers, or, you know, football players, whoever that you think are, Ironman, and then they start breaking down. I mean, Cal Ripken ends the streak at the end of 1998 and then his back really starts flaring up on opening day. You know, even then spring training in 99 I mean, you just don’t know. And obviously, Cal is 3839 years old at that point. It’s an extreme example, but it’s because I have such a respect for what guys do today in terms of what they are asked to do from a. Max effort standpoint. We’ve talked about that, and I’m not saying Albert Suarez doesn’t pace himself. Pitchers pace themselves, but it’s not, not in the way they did in the 90s, let alone the way they did in the 60s or the 1930s so it is very different in that way. But your point is well taken. And he’s
Nestor Aparicio 10:17
also older and smarter too, right? I mean, if you make it this far, you know your body better than Kyle Bradish knew his body because you’re 10 years older. Like I just I think there’s some wisdom here, and I think I really like what I’m seeing in that way. It is a great story. I mean, in a lot of ways, but I think it’s a story about an outlier in regard to innings, and in regard to fatigue, I it he does feel like he is getting stronger, and that dead arm period that we’ve talked about all of our lives that can now be measured in all sorts of ways. And you young guys measure and they measure everything. And I think part of it is for the Jim Palmer mindset, is we bubble wrap all of these guys. And as far as is one of those guys that just might not need the bubble wrap at this point in his life, at this point in his career, that that’s not to say he needs to throw 126 pitches, or they needed to throw a complete game the other night, but I think going out and asking him to give 8090 pitches every fifth or sixth day, that’s not too much for him. You know, that’s all. And I feel that in the kind of effort he gave, he feels effortless sometimes in how he’s doing this, doesn’t he,
Luke Jones 11:25
yeah, I mean, look, I’m a big Albert Suarez guy. You know, my comment wasn’t that he was breaking down, but I think it’s, it’s a natural question, especially for someone who has the journey that he’s had just to get back to this point. You know, we’ve talked about this. And I say this with no disrespect to anyone who is pitching in Japan or the KBO or triple A for that matter, right? I mean, there are plenty of 30 year old pitchers toiling a triple A, trying to get back to the show, because they were there four years ago for five minutes, right? I mean, you’ll see all kinds of that triple A but you know, those levels of competition are not major league baseball on a consistent nightly basis, so there is a different sense in terms in terms of the competition and what’s required of you to be successful. So for him to continue to do what he’s done after not being in the majors for seven years, and kind of, like I said, ping ponging back and forth a little bit between the rotation and a bullpen role. I mean, let’s face it, at the trade deadline, Albert Suarez was sent back to the bullpen because, you know, Zach Eflin was here, Trevor Rogers was here, and then suddenly he
Nestor Aparicio 12:39
sees perception, though, right? Some of that was perception. These guys were better than him. That wasn’t the reality of really, even where he was at that point, versus Rogers. And never very good July, though. I
Luke Jones 12:52
mean, go back and look at his numbers. He wasn’t very good. Then perception, of course, no, I don’t disagree with you there and now, I mean, Trevor Rogers is a triple A, and even if you know Grayson Rodriguez comes back here in the next couple weeks, there’s going to still be a rotation spot for Robert Suarez. Now we can talk about October, and maybe, maybe he’s not in the rotation, but if he’s not, I guarantee you they’re, they’re going to find a spot in the bullpen for him that he might be in the Kevin Gosman role from 10 years ago, where, if you recall a couple of those games against the the Detroit Tigers, Kevin Gosman came in and put out a couple fires and pitched inning in two thirds, two and a third innings, whatever it was, you need some of that. Hey, I
Nestor Aparicio 13:35
tell you what we’ve seen, burns look not so good. I don’t know where Rodriguez is even going to beat it, to take the ball, but you better have somebody in the second inning. When you’re 41 pitches in with your one or game two starter, and they’re getting banged around and they can’t get anybody out, and there’s been six or seven base runners. You look at two to nothing in the second inning differently. To say you know what? Corbin doesn’t have it today. Bring in Suarez. We’ll bring Corbin back for game three, game four. Let’s get there, but we can’t get in deep. We can’t be down five nothing in the second or third inning, because you just won’t allow that. As a man, I think, unless you’re kicking the ball around. But you’re not going to allow that, especially if they can’t find the strike zone, don’t have the command that they’re going to need in shadows in October chill, whatever happens, there’s a quicker hook. So whoever that fourth or fifth starter is that Dean, that that guy that’s gonna come in and rescue your ass, and this Kevin Gosman is gonna rescue your ass, you better have it, especially when you don’t have a long bullpen to begin with,
Luke Jones 14:38
right, right? So and look right now as things stand, right now, he’d be their game three starter, right? I mean, we we can’t assume Grayson Rodriguez is coming back. We expect that, we think that, we anticipate that, you hope, but until he’s making a start and, oh, he looks like Grayson Rodriguez. I mean, that’s all hearsay, right? All conjecture at this point in time. I mean, look at the calendar. We’re in mid September, and he still hasn’t made a start. He’s still, you know, it sounds like he’s on the verge of starting to throw live batting practice against hitters. So, like, that’s important, that’s good, that’s great step, but he’s still got a little ways to go here. Like, the, you know, he’s not making a start this weekend. So yeah, Albert Suarez. And the point I was trying to make was not to start ranking these guys in terms of hierarchy. The point is, Albert Suarez is going to factor into their October plans in some meaningful way, whatever that role ends up being. Three weeks out, your
Nestor Aparicio 15:34
three four starts out. We’re figuring the hierarchy right now. And more than that, as much as you can with them. Yeah, this week, it’s sort of like, are you going to be first place, second place? Second place, how far are you going to fight? Who’s pitching next week? You know, New York, New York, New York. And you know those games next week are going to be you can’t get your ass kicked next week up there. Matter of fact, you could put your foot down if you put your best foot forward. Um, anything else you want on pitching from this Red Sox, I think one thing about it was just sort of missing bats, if Fenway is a good idea. And
Luke Jones 16:05
one thing I want to point out about the bullpen, and I mentioned Dominguez got the save. I mean, he had his hiccup that, that three game stretch where he gave up home runs, including the two walk offs in New York against the Mets. He’s been really good. And someone I want to I want to give some flowers to, because I’ve been critical of him at a couple of different points this year. And it’s funny to say this now, but I wrote about it earlier in the day, Tuesday, of course, he had a couple hiccups out on the mound. Yenier Cano balk aside, did you know that was only his second walk since the all star break? He had issues walk issuing walks in the first half, and since, since the all star break, he has, you know, his his strikeout rate is up, which, you know, I talk so much about a need for relievers to be able to miss bats. And he’s walked two batters now. He gave up a run again. Wasn’t his best outing on Tuesday night, but he has been very good. He’s been better with inherited runners. Again. I’m saying this after an outing that was one of his worst ones of the second half. But relatively speaking, I mean, he has been, I don’t want to put him at the level where he was the first three months when he made the all star team last year, but this might be as close as he’s been to looking like that. So he’s been really
Nestor Aparicio 17:24
good. I just want to interject that I’m the Kino guy here. Okay, of you know this, there’s guys I believe in, guys I don’t you know, not a dean Kramer guy, certainly becoming not a Kimbrel guy, you know, I
Luke Jones 17:37
don’t think anyone’s a Kimbrel guy at this point, I
Nestor Aparicio 17:40
was always the Derrick Henry guy, but I got to see him carry the ball. The ball and get the offensive line. But it’s very rare, over the course of all of this 33 years, that I jump on that and say, I’m a, you know, I’m I’m a fan of this guy. I mean, I was always a Jared Johnson guy. I’m just thinking of guys that I thought were I like the Jordan westburg Guys, that not the Adley rutmans or the gunner Hendersons. When I was a little boy, my friend Rob debase, his favorite player was Brooks, and mine was Tom chopay, you know what I mean. So to give you some idea, I’ve always been the underdog. I was a Gary renicky guy, you know what I mean, in an era brother Lowe, I had to admit that to him. So I, you know, I’ve always sort of like a little engine that could sort of thing. And to me, Cano has been as good as anybody once. Maybe that’s a country music song, so therefore, I don’t know. I’d have no problem believing he’s a pile diver in October to steal bucks line. I mean, they’re guys, I think are pile divers. And then there’s guys I think, oh man, if we had game seven and this guy had the ball, I’d be very concerned about it. I wouldn’t be concerned with, you know, Cano having to get the last six outs and game seven if he had to. I mean, I feel like, yeah, you know, he wouldn’t wet, we wouldn’t wet the bed. He wouldn’t walk the bases loaded at this point. That’s how I feel.
Luke Jones 18:56
I mean, I, I don’t know if there’s anyone in the bullpen that wouldn’t leave me not concerned, but of their options, he’s been he’s been excellent in the second half. And look, he’s been really good overall. I was just commenting earlier in the year. Go look at the walk rate, but look at what it’s been since then. Look at the strikeout rate, which wasn’t awful, but it wasn’t great. You know, he’s slightly under one per inning. He’s up closer to like 11 per nine now. So he’s, he’s definitely trended in the right direction Tuesday night, you know, hiccup aside, he’s been really good, you know. But you have him, you have Dominguez, Danny cool on begins his rehab assignment for triple A Norfolk on Wednesday night. I mean, you look at how the Orioles finish that game behind Suarez, if you can replace CNL Perez with Danny coulomb, who has the ability to get lefties and righties out and does not have as much of an issue issuing the free pass. Again, I’m giving you the pre injury Danny Coulomb. We’ve got to
Nestor Aparicio 19:56
see what that looks like. Yeah, I was going to say the old man and. Well, and anything with Grayson, same thing, the thing Sure, come back and be sharp and tight. You’re gonna get 104 pitches out of him. That’s not happening.
Luke Jones 20:07
Well. I mean, look, part of this is also they haven’t rushed these guys back. I mean, Danny coulomb had bone chips removed from his elbow. He didn’t have UCL surgery or anything like that. So, you know, you had that in what, mid June, I guess it was. So it’s been, you know, they’ve, they’ve targeted three months as far as him being able to come back, and we’re approaching that at this point in time. So, you know, I’m not going to sit here and say that, I expect it, but I’m also not going to sit here and say that I think Danny cool is going to be a lost cause and isn’t going to pitch well for them. But there’s unknown until you
Nestor Aparicio 20:41
see it, right? I mean, I would say that for all their injuries, right? As we sit short, yeah. I mean, look, I’m like everybody else. I have Melanie Newman and Rob long and Brett all the team employees. It’s all hope and hope and hope and flowers and roses and optimism. So therefore the fans have it like, I’m just a fan, I’m not a media guy, right? Ask, and ask Greg Bader like so I think, in my mind, what you’re saying and the way that they’ve done this, it’s straight magic. If they can get 14 innings out of Rodriguez in the postseason, it can get to the World Series. It’s incredible. If Cologne has six appearances in October in key situations, and they see those leverage points in the sixth and seventh innings, with all of that they’re working at this 24 hours a day. You and I are flying by for what we do in regard to this, and trying to get these guys right. But they have sold me through their media channels and through you being out there, and through seeing westburg out taking ground. You know, we’re starting to see this a little bit, that maybe they can all be okay and come back. And that would be fairy tale. I should maybe they still get beat, but I would feel better about all of these guys getting back to some level soon. You know, I mean, first time I see him can’t be October 3. And I don’t know that you want to throw them out in middle of Yankee Stadium next week either. I don’t know what that timeline looks like, but all these guys got to come back and play a little baseball at some point, right? A little bit. Yeah, I
Luke Jones 22:07
mean, you just said it. And, I mean, the Yankee series is in two weeks, right? They’re back home for their last home stand next week. But he’d like to have, I mean, we’re talking about the last, literally, the last week of the regular season when they go to the Bronx, you know, they they finish up at New York, and then they’re at Minnesota for the final series of the regular season. Boy, you want these guys back for then, at least, right? I mean, even if it’s three or four games of at bats for Jordan westburg, you want three or four games of at bats, you know, to your point, you don’t want them going cold turkey. And he especially, because, obviously, a position players work is different than a pitcher. Pitcher literally can’t throw every day, but he has been maniacal about being out there taking ground balls. He’s he’s throwing now it sounds like he’s getting closer and closer to start swinging the bat. And you know, that’s kind of the the next big step for him, by the way. He’s
Nestor Aparicio 22:58
feisty with his lips this week too. Yeah.
Luke Jones 23:01
I mean, he’s, you know, he’s, he’s a guy that doesn’t say a whole lot. He’s on the quieter side. He’s much more of a lead by example guy. But, yeah, I mean, he flat out, said, like, hey, we need to jump out the leads and step on your neck a little bit. I mean, it’s almost sounded more like a football player talking so we
Nestor Aparicio 23:18
know is right West, where
Luke Jones 23:20
he’s from originally. I’m drawing a blank thing. I’m not sure. I mean, he played a Mississippi, Mississippi State is where he went to school. But anyway, the point is, you know, he’s, he’s working hard to get back. I mean, these guys are in, Look, I I wouldn’t expect anything less, right? I don’t think there’s anyone who doesn’t want to come back. I mean, there are guys, guys on the 60 day il who literally can’t come back, you know, because they’re, they’re still not throwing or anything like that. But, you know, they’re in a position where Danny cool on Jacob Webb tossed a scoreless sending on Tuesday night. He could be, you know, you could see him this weekend. I think it’s possible you see Jacob Webb activated in Detroit this weekend, so you have him back, so you’re starting to look at the bullpen, and you say, okay, work from the back forward. Sir Anthony Dominguez in the ninth. Yen your canoe. Those two guys I’ve talked about, the four or five guys that you need in a bullpen in October, that that you can throw out there at any point and feel confident in those two. I’m checking them off because you really have no other choice but to trust those two, right? I mean, these are those guys go in the tank here the next two weeks, then that Bullpen’s just not going to survive in October. So you have those two. Can Danny coulomb come back and be that guy he was last year? You know, he was, he was in that group last year. So that would be three. Jacob Webb, you know, not quite to the degree of Albert Suarez, but Jacob Webb was a big part of their bullpen the first four months. I mean, when you look at a guy that threw multiple innings high leverage, sometimes he’d be the guy to come in and put out a fire in the fifth inning, and then he’s going in an inning in two. Thirds for you. So can he be back in that group again? I’m not saying he’s dominant. I’m not saying he’s got a track record or a pedigree that gives you a ton of confidence, but I have more faith in Jacob Webb coming back than I do watching Craig Kimbrell continue to pitch and continue to give up runs. So, so there you go. There’s four and then, okay, I’ll I’ll hear Gregory Soto, or I’ll hear whichever starters not in the postseason rotation. You know, maybe they’re, they’re thrown into that mix. You know, whether it’s steam Kramer or Suarez, whatever. I mean, you know, we’ll see. But maybe it’s Grayson Rodriguez. Is that guy? You know? Maybe he is that guy because he’s not quite ready to give them 90 pitches. I don’t know. I mean, I don’t
Nestor Aparicio 25:40
know, Kate post a guy that, you know, maybe, yeah, yeah, I got you. I feel the same way.
Luke Jones 25:48
It’s, it’s, he’s such a funny case, so
Nestor Aparicio 25:50
close. These never get any respect. Ask God at times, you know,
Luke Jones 25:54
right? At times, he’s actually shown some ability to miss bats. But boy, if his command is not pinpoint. And I mean pinpoint, he gets knocked around too much, so I’d be really nervous about what that looks like in a relief role. But point is, they’re getting a couple options back here, or at least a couple options they think, as they’re tossing rehab. Look Danny, cool, gotta wake up and make sure his elbow, elbow feels good. You know, it’s felt good. You know he’s talked, he talked on the last home stand. He’s feeling good. He’s encouraged, but until they get back out there in a live game setting, and especially, you know, doing it at Norfolk’s one thing. Doing it in a pennant race is another thing. So there’s still some unknown, but there’s definitely optimism there that, you know, this bullpen hopefully kind of sort of taken some shape here again. I think you feel good about the two guys at the back, but still questions as far as how you get there and to your point in October, you know, you’re not. Your starter is not. It’s, it’s actually kind of rare that your starter goes 9500 pitches at this point. This point in time, in October, unless it’s a guy that is Zach Wheeler ace quality. You know that a bonafide stud, in terms of a true ace, and you know,
Nestor Aparicio 27:15
the Orioles are even a starter out there, long gonna get in trouble if they make it the fourth of Right. Right? Exactly. I mean, you know, you’re always thinking I could bring them back quicker. I might need them in game five, seven, whatever that. Yeah. I
Luke Jones 27:25
mean, yes. I mean, so much of it. Look, I know old school fans bristle at this kind of stuff, but the numbers don’t lie about third time through the order. Third time through the order penalty applies to just about everyone you know, from aces on down, so you get to that third time through the order, unless your starter is really humming, and unless you have a, I don’t know, six one lead, you know, you hope for you hope these games aren’t all two to one, but they, they often are, you know, they typically are, but you’re going to be in a position at that point where you Get to that third time through the order, let alone talking about approaching the fourth time through the order. I mean, even the ACES at that point you’re going hitter to hit, or you’ve got someone ready to go on the bullpen at the first sign of trouble. So, you know, it’s a different element. That’s why I’ve said you need go back and look at the teams that the World Series representatives of the last few years, they, on average, right around four relievers per game that they use. You know, sometimes a little more, sometimes slightly less. But there are very few seven or eight inning starts in October anymore. I mean, that’s just the truth. The days of Jack Morris against John Smoltz. You know, both go nine innings. I mean, you just, you don’t see that much anymore, for good or bad. I’m not saying that’s good for the sport. I’m just telling you where it is. So, yeah, they’re trying to identify that. And Danny coulam and Jacob Webb are two guys that very well could fit into that category. Because, as I’ve said, I think, I just think Craig Kimbrel is running out of time at this point to even stack enough good outings where he would even be in that conversation. I think that the clock’s running out on him. I, you know, I he’s, he’s down 13 with four minutes to go in a football game. Like, dude, you’re running out of time. So, you know, we’ll see. I mean, we’re gonna see. I mean, there’s still so much that can happen. And for as much as we’re talking about these guys coming back from injury, you also hope nothing else happens to anyone else. I speaking of that, though, because it’s the one of the more, more recent Ramona Rios making good progress. A week and a half ago, when that happened, he was on crutches for a few days. You’re kind of wondering is, is his season done? Sounds like he’s doing much better. Sounds like he’s got a really good chance to be back here in the not too distant future. I don’t know if it’s I wonder if Dean
Nestor Aparicio 29:48
Kramer season was over when he got hit with that line, sure, sure. And he’s already, I mean, so they are, you never know. It’s not worst case scenario. It’s not everybody, right? But, I mean, I really felt that way back in June.
Luke Jones 29:59
Oh. Going to say it’s felt like everybody and certainly, I mean, the starting rotation, when you just consider the guys that are on the IL and what they’ve dealt with there, I mean, and even Grayson Rodriguez, as much as this, this latch strain wasn’t as bad as it was two years ago when he was at Norfolk. This is still ended up, you know, he’s missed over a month now, right? And he’s still not back. So clearly, this was, you know, not the least of possible latch strains. This is somewhere in the middle in that regard. So, you know, we’re gonna see. And you just hope guys can get back. You hope everyone else stays healthy. I mean, Ryan outcastle Brandon hides the latest update on him. That was sounding iffy, you know, whether he’s gonna make it back. I mean, he kind of said he thinks he is, but did not have much conviction hitting the ball too. Yeah, cursed ad started a rehab assignment at Bowie. So, you know, we’ll see on him. We’ve always done an infirmary report. We haven’t, but you know what, we haven’t even talked about him because, I mean, think about it, he got hit in that Yankee series. You know, that whole thing that happened hide, you know, the near brawl, all that I went away, I went to, I went on vacation. So you know, you and I weren’t reconvening every day to talk about it all. Star break, he comes back. Wasn’t right. And then, you know, the concussion symptoms resurfaced. So, you know, unfortunate for him. Because if you recall before that happened, kerstad was really starting to become a part of this lineup. You know, he was it was contributing. So again, we’ve talked so much about the offense, there’s one of the young guys that felt like maybe he was starting to to figure it out in the way that Jordan westburg did, in the way that Colton cowser Has this year compared to last year. And you know, the concussion issue, I mean, which anyone who’s dealt with concussions in any walk of life, let alone just talking about baseball and trying to discern a 98 mile per hour fastball, but compared to a change up or a breaking ball, you know, if you’re not right from a concussion, you know, from a neurological standpoint, you’re there’s no way you’re going to succeed. Well, dude, it’s
Nestor Aparicio 32:00
amazing because I watched Troy Aikman call games. Brian Roberts was here. Just guys that have had real trauma, you know, cost their careers, you know. So Lou Jones is going to be following his career, his best career path, to Owings Mills. This week, the Orioles are going to Detroit. We’re going to be monitoring everything. The Raiders are in town. I’m going to have JT the brick on we’re going to talk about the raiders and their mess that that they laid down in LA and fights in the league, and the raiders and chart of just ugly, ugly stuff. But good news, we didn’t bring this up. Luke and I did a half an hour on on the Orioles pitching. Everybody got to hit the lineup. I mean, even Mayo got a hit. Like, everybody driving and runs rushman, so there’s at least, like for all that we talked about with the pitching, they got to hit the ball, and 10 hits is better than four hits, and even if they’re stranding runners, and situationally, can’t drive in runners in scoring position, but everybody hit the ball. Mullins looks awakened. That would help them. All of these guys have it in them. That’s what I say all of the you think I pooped on cows the other day. He might hit 500 in October. I don’t know. All of these guys have that one one pedigree that I’ve done it before that I hit 40 home runs this year, or whatever, at 40 runs in minor leagues, whatever it was. All of these guys have the ability to hit the ball really hard and soundly. And I, that’s going to have to happen next month. So we’re going to talk some football. Lamar getting banged around. Your anything you want to say about that for Wednesday or no? No, but one thing
Luke Jones 33:32
I want to go back to, and then we’ll get to Lamar. Because I, you know, it’s 32nd update, not really any different than what we talked about the other day. He’s a little banged up. He’s a little sore, you know, Luke, you can wait
Nestor Aparicio 33:40
for the for the budget report on Wednesday. Yeah,
Luke Jones 33:43
I will. I’ll be waiting with baited breath. But Cedric Mullins two home runs, as I said to you the other day, go look at his numbers. Since July 1, as other guys, like Adley rutschman, have gone in the other direction, Cedric Mullins has quietly now he’s become a platoon player, but has been much better. I want to leave you with one thing, though, because this shocked me. Put you on the spot here just a guess, and I don’t expect you to know this, because I didn’t know this. Go ahead, where do the Orioles rank in the second half? So since the all star break in on base percentage and walk rate, I
Nestor Aparicio 34:20
have no idea I was going to give you a Jackson holiday stack. Go ahead,
Luke Jones 34:24
fourth and Major League Baseball. So that tells
Nestor Aparicio 34:29
you right there more than 20 or six other teams. They are. Everybody’s trying to swing their way off the island. Maybe that’s why nobody’s hitting the
Luke Jones 34:37
ball well. And let me be clear, it’s not like they’re on base percentages. It really, if you kind of look at it, the top three are, I can’t remember off the top of my head, but there, there’s some, there’s some distance between the top three and like, there’s kind of like a group of four through 17, but the Orioles are fourth. Their walk rate is fourth. And it’s, it’s better than it was in the first half. My point there is not to say that you. Yeah, that that’s a bad thing, or that on base percentage, Dave, they haven’t slugged home runs are down. What’s really down? And this is the point I tried to make over and over in the first half when people said, all they, you know, they, all they do is hit home runs, their doubles are way down in the second half as well. So yeah, on base percentage is great. And you think back to Moneyball and Billy Beane and all that, but you got a slug, you got to be able to hit for some power. And a team like Arizona, for example, who has been the best offense in baseball in the second half, and their overall home run numbers aren’t like leading the majors. They’re leading the majors in the second half. Any team that’s going to hit in October, any team that’s going to make an October run, all that, I would be willing to wager they’re hitting home runs in October. So to your point, just a couple moments to go. Maybe the Orioles get hot. They’re certainly overdue as it pertains to getting hot. And hey, Adley rotsman, big two run single on Tuesday night as well. Want to give him love after I was criticizing him, but we’ll see. You know they have, they certainly have the power potential to heat up at the right time. Time will tell if they’re going to do it. Young
Nestor Aparicio 36:10
Jackson holiday, you got snippy with me yesterday. Said, you look up the stats. You can look it up your internet and whatever. And I didn’t and whatever. I was in the car driving back from Annapolis, where I was having an oyster with the great Ray Bachman down at Mike’s, and Riva and holiday came up to bat. And this is where I said I think Brett Holland Brett Hollander does a great job doing the games. Just call it. You know the cadence of baseball. He loves baseball, right? But he gave this the split, which I thought maybe you might get fired for giving that split. But since the home run, the big grand slam, like all of that that, you know, they they all went out measured. They all have shirts with the seven on it and the bricks and all that. 176, three, extra base hits and, like, ops, 4094, side, like, something awful, um, you know. And I made the case about Norby being more prepared to help them win a World Series right here right now than Jackson holiday. Is that that that that was my point about what you had and what you could have had, and your point that cursed that thing to me, the ultimate vote of confidence with him was that they dealt Stowers instead of him. You know what I mean? To some degree, we’re like, we’re going to keep you around. We still believe in you kid, even though your gloves not great, whatever we feel like we can. You know, we might be able to sneak into right field at some point or left field at some point in the big leagues, but that kicking hit the ball, and there’s a point where they showed belief in him, but not really in Norby, to even be valuable now, because they thought, in their heart of hearts. They thought holiday would come up in 250 you know what I mean? Be replacement to be okay, replacement level for your word. I I try to steal your word so I sound smart, so I don’t sound like an old fart. But you know, 176 speaks for itself. It just does I mean. And I like the kid. He’s cute. I want to give him a hug. I want to pinch his cheeks. But I, you know, you got to help me win a World Series next month, and I need my best players. I don’t know what that combination is, but I just think, you know, in some cases, they’ve rushed guys not I mean, Mayo’s another guy that can’t find himself and got a hit the other night. You’re, you’re because these guys have such pedigree, all of these guys you want to believe in, because you’ve just seen them succeed so much. And I And that’s not the sigma Idell or the mike Elias or even the FANBOY and me, that’s just sort of like how they evaluate these guys. When you can do it there to your point, what do you send it back down to Norfolk and have mid 45 home runs? What does he need to What does W Mayo need to do in Norfolk? Hitting double a pitching you know, like you’re gonna have to bring him up. He’s gonna have to sink or swim. Just can’t have him sink right now, because beginning in two weeks, they can’t lose anymore. They have to win.
Luke Jones 38:52
Yeah, they do, I mean, and I’ll echo what I said the other day. My issue wasn’t trading. My issue was not with trading Conor, Norby, if Jordan westburg and Ramona Reus never get hurt and we’re not having Jackson holiday. No, we’re having the conversation, why the heck didn’t you trade why? Why the heck didn’t you trade Connor Norby for some pitching help? That would be the conversation. My issue was the opportunity cost of Were there other moves out there to be made that were better than acquiring Trevor Rogers, like, for example, a bullpen arm, or something like that. Again, there’s, there’s some legitimate criticism, and there’s some of this, just hindsight, is what it is. Jordan westburg literally got hurt less than 24 hours after the trade deadline. Ramona Reese was his replacement. He gets hurt too at the end of August. So you know, Jackson holiday since being recalled, I, you know, I’m not going to split it down quite as much as you did, because he hit those home runs, those count, uh, but since being recalled at the end of July, he’s, he’s been slightly over a 200 hitter overall. That’s needs to be better. However, if the Orioles had their full line up in place, he’s your number nine hitter. I could probably live with that. But every. Everything is under the microscope, and that’s something I touched on. You could check it out my 12 Orioles thoughts at Baltimore positive.com even on the position player side, with the injuries they’ve had, it’s probably forced Brandon Hyde to play some guys a little more than he’d like to talking about the regulars, and even in some matchups where he wouldn’t like to everything has a to everything takes a toll in a 162 game season. I’m not saying that’s an excuse. Absolutely their offense needs to be better, but I think that is a variable as well, even though it’s much more obvious and evident on the pitching side, with their injuries. Anything
Nestor Aparicio 40:35
you want to say on Lamar before you get out there, because, I mean, anything’s possible, right? Like mugging this, that Schefter and garifulo reporting that he’s gotten back. I mean, if he’s not out there by ran into NFL linebackers 15 times the other night, like, I just, yeah, yeah.
Luke Jones 40:52
I mean, he got, he took some hits. There’s no question if he’s not out there. I mean, even if he if he’s not out there, say, By Thursday, and you and I will reconvene between now and then anyway, but if he’s not out there by Thursday, then I start to ask a few more questions. But, you know, it just reiterates what we said. And look, you and I have argued about this for years, with Lamar and I, I’ve, I’ve made the comment that he’s a war avoided hits at a much higher rate than you’ve given him credit for, or just people in general when they say that. But that does not apply last Thursday night. He took a ton of hits last Thursday night. So that was the and I’ll also point out that was his greatest number of carries since 2021
Nestor Aparicio 41:37
but dude, you got 10 days off, you can’t even get back out onto the field, and, yeah, he’s already banged up. That sucks. I mean, literally, that sucks. And lighter, and look, he’s gonna be faster to do what, to run in the linebackers again, there’s the whole purpose, what we were trying to avoid for six years. But he’s really good at it, and we’re behind, okay? And they’re the chiefs, and we have to win, and the running game’s not working, and our offensive line sucks, like, then he goes and runs, and that’s the job. That’s that is the job, and he’s the best in the world at it, right? He
Luke Jones 42:14
is. And I will say this, you just kind of said it. I am going to, you know, it’s not even about giving them a pass. I mean, he’s the only reason they were in the game at the at the end of the game, right? I mean, it certainly wasn’t opening running lanes for Derrick Henry all night. So yeah, he’s, he’s their MVP. He’s been the league MVP of all that. He’s, for my money, right now, today, the number two quarterback in the NFL, certainly in the top four or five if you’re going to be objective whatsoever, but yeah, I think I will give the benefit of the doubt. From the standpoint of, I think there was a hangover from the title game, and he and this football team desperately, desperately, desperately wanted to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. And I’ll chalk it up to that if he’s running 1816 times again, come Sunday against the Raiders, then, yeah, I have my major concerns under that, especially if he’s taken hits to the same degree. But look missing practice on a Monday where media normally aren’t even out there for their early week practice. You know, it’s usually not part of the coverage schedule, so to speak for reporters, that that’s a nothing burger, as long as he’s back out there and he’s fine and looks like himself, you know, to the point that we made the other day, he was in the team photo video that they put out on social media, and look no worse for wear. He he was, he was standing there smiling, moving around. It didn’t look like, you know, certainly wasn’t in a hospital bed or, you know, with broken ribs or anything like that. So, you know, I think this is much ado about nothing, but yeah, on the heels of his highest rushing total in a few years, then yeah, it’s a reminder of that specific formula, though, that specific number of hits, not a sustainable way of going about it for 17 weeks. And I think they know that I, I’m, I’m willing to wager that that’s much more the exception and not the new norm. Here in 2024
Nestor Aparicio 44:14
tomorrow, we will discuss the AI video made of Patrick mahomes pooping on Lamar Jackson.
Luke Jones 44:19
I saw that, someone said that to me. I couldn’t that. Wow. AI is terrifying in a lot of ways, and I’ll digress on that. Well,
Nestor Aparicio 44:29
just for that reason, there you go. Upset. Yeah, he’s Luke. I’m Nestor. We got plenty of sports, plenty of Mark Viviano here. I got Lawrence Gowan from sticks there in town, knows the great Nils Lofgren from the E Street Band, we got the raiders in town this week. The Orioles are heading off to Detroit. We got plenty of things happening, including a really cool Pearl Jam. Bruce video that I shared out of Baltimore positive, he’s Luke. I’m Nestor Aparicio Coopers on Friday on the Maryland crab cake tour where Baltimore positive.com Stay with us.
