So, just what are the Orioles real plans for a payroll under the new stewardship and deep pockets of the Rubenstein group? Luke Jones and Nestor discuss the strategy and budget of general manager Mike Elias as the hot stove starts to boil for offseason activities as the MLB Winter Meetings spark a baseball conversation in Baltimore about the future.
Nestor Aparicio and Luke Jones discuss the Baltimore Orioles’ offseason strategy and the expectations for the upcoming MLB Winter Meetings. They express frustration with the new ownership’s lack of transparency and significant financial investments, contrasting it with the previous Angelo era. They debate the potential acquisition of pitchers like Corbin Burns and Luis Castillo, highlighting the high costs and risks associated with long-term contracts. They also emphasize the importance of player development and the need for the Orioles to make impactful moves to win over fans and improve their competitiveness.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
Orioles offseason, MLB Winter Meetings, new ownership, player development, free agent signings, pitching needs, payroll strategy, fan engagement, community investment, player contracts, trade options, future plans, revenue growth, fan excitement, team improvement
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore, positive. Uh, happy holidays. Everybody out there celebrating. We’re going to be taking the Maryland crab cake tour on the road for one final haul next week. We’re going to be on Tuesday at AMI cheese of Little Italy all afternoon eating meatballs for the holidays. I think they probably have some big boy eggnog there for me as well. Our friends at the Maryland lottery also sending us to Costas in establishing Dundalk in 1971 we will be establishing ourselves at the bar on Wednesday afternoon, lots of friends, family, loved ones, not a lot of relatives, but people, relatively speaking, that are there for the crab Imperial so come on by say hello. We’ll give you a lottery ticket and tip a cup of holiday cheer. And then holiday cheer, hopefully includes a victory over the New York football Giants. And as it always is when I’m in Dundalk, Luke, and this is probably my first note to Katie Griggs to say, give me my media credential back is whether they like it or not. Everywhere I go, people come up to me every day now and talk about the baseball team, and that’s not you’ve known me a long time. That has not always been the case, but people come to me everywhere I go now and in the off season, and it is part of the conversation to say, what are they doing in a way where for years, we haven’t, and I guess it’s telling that in the middle of these winter meetings, when crochet goes to the Red Sox and the Orioles made a little splash last weekend before the winter meetings and two signings and wherever the Santander sweepstakes are. And by the time this recording is over, it could be it could be done. But for Boris to say, New Orleans ownership is doing more than old Orioles ownership, okay, well, when the money, you know, when the money is spent, and the the graphics come in, we’ll say that they are spending money. You would make a case. And John Angelos would also make the case. We’d have to spend a lot of money. We we can be a middling this and that, and we’re really well managed. And okay, I mean, I hear all of that, but this is under new ownership who’ve had nothing to say. Katie Griggs had her little thing in the dugout for five minutes and five minutes with you guys who are credentialed media, the legitimate folks, and it’s been 90 days since I’ve seen anything from any of them. I don’t I don’t know how this the biggest insult on my Facebook this week was, feels like the Angeles family never left. Now I’m I’m not going to be insulting because we still have three more months of an off season here, but I am wondering what the gig is here and when Boris is saying they’re trying harder. I don’t even know what that means, dude, because at some point they’re going to field the team and they’re going to go out next week, next year, and win 80 games, 90 games, 100 games, based on what they’re doing now. And for anybody who’s new to the Oriole party, Luke and I have been at this a long time. If you win championships, it’s the time you do it. You know? It’s a time when you really augment make your team better?
Luke Jones 03:01
Well, I mean, it’s an ongoing process. I mean, it’s not just now, but it’s part of it, right? And it’s an important part of it. I’ll remind everyone that at this time a year ago, we were still, what, almost two months out from the Orioles acquiring Corbin burns. So you know, it’s looking more and more like the trade route is an avenue they might need to go. Because when you look at what Max free gets, when you look at even someone like Nathan avaldi, who I had even mentioned to you as a quote, cheaper alternative, and it’s three years, $75 million to at at his age, you know, to return to the Texas Rangers, yeah, told him he was
Nestor Aparicio 03:44
going to get that kind of money when he was 21 years old, when he was beating around with the Red Sox 15 years ago. Like, it’s, it really, it’s, it’s incredible money. It really is,
Luke Jones 03:53
yeah, especially, especially considering the injury history that he had, especially early in his career. I mean, good for him, right? But it’s a reminder of you see what those deals are. I mean, what is Corbin burns going to get? And to your point, a couple minutes ago. I mean, this could, there could be an announcement while you and I are having this discussion in real time, but all my
Nestor Aparicio 04:13
political friends, I’ll kick Biden in the nuts. It’s bidenflation. Is what it is. It’s everything costs too much. This is what their number three pitchers cost these days? And I’m like, Yeah, I mean, and that’s what the reality for Mr. Rubenstein is, and the reality for Mike Elias is, and the reality to say, well, we’ve always done it this way, and we’ve done it on the cheap, and we’re going to play bone on bone based on our, you know, our fan base that didn’t even support our team, and come out and pay and, you know, where’s the money coming from? And, oh, my god, the money, I don’t know this is, this is baseball, you know. And, and if you want to play, you better get somebody to pitch. And, oh, sure, Burns is going to be another level of Nathan of all. And
Luke Jones 04:55
again, well, I mean, it’s not even a comparison right up. As far as what tax. Bracket it’s going to be in, but, yeah, you need to get somebody. And there are different ways to do this, as I pointed out. I mean, no one was even, you know, maybe there had been a little bit of discussion, a little bit of speculation that the Orioles could be a team that could go get Corbin burns last year, you know what, when it was clear that he and Milwaukee were heading toward a divorce, knowing that he was a year out from free agency and talks and all that had not gone anywhere so but I don’t think at this point last year, anyone thought that that was the likely outcome, right? I mean, we never dealt for a number one picture Well, and that’s and that’s the point I was trying to make here. I mean, it’s well and good to hear Scott Boris.
Nestor Aparicio 05:43
You know the guy he’s trying to get $500 million from, whether it’s for Corbin, these things are Mean Gene to me, they’re just all exactly, they’re they’re there to blow up the balloon, or whoever they’re trying to phrase,
Luke Jones 05:57
but, but I think, for acknowledging that reality, let’s pretend, for this exercise, the Orioles aren’t going to resign Corbin burns, and he’s going to get a deal that’s crazier than the deal that Max free just got as a 30 year old, getting an eight year two, $18 million deal with the Yankees. So what’s next? Then? Right? Because they need somebody, right? I mean, a minimum of one legit, you know, whether it’s going to be a shiny, sparkly ace, or someone that you say is a number one, number two kind of pitcher that you could slot in there, along with Evelyn and Grayson Rodriguez being healthy. You
Nestor Aparicio 06:38
really hope Rodriguez is Jim Palmer, but he might be sed Davis.
Luke Jones 06:44
So much of this is still riding on and this really goes for the offense as well, right? I mean, okay, they added Tyler O’Neal. They added Gary Sanchez as their backup quarterback, or quarterback backup catcher. But a lot of this is still hinging on Adley rutschman, bouncing back. And those three months last summer being a very weird aberration That was part struggles, part health concerns that they just don’t want to talk about, whatever. But that’s really important. It’s really important for Jordan westburg to stay healthy and not, you know, and be the guy that he was through the first four months last year or three months last year, it’s important for Heston kerstad to take the next step, because the way their outfield is constructed right now, it lends itself to him being a real part of that right in the same way that Colton cows are took the next step this past year. He needs to take the next step so so so much of this still hinges on player development continuing, as I say to you over and over and over, player development does not cease when a young player reaches the majors. Right there, there are still steps that have to be taken there, in the same way that gunner Henderson, yep, Flash some promise when he had his cup of coffee at the end of 22 was Rookie of the Year in 23 and then he was a top five player in the American League last year, and maybe the
Nestor Aparicio 08:02
best made every one of these players better, whether it was Santander coming as Rule five, or whether it was Mullins, or whether it was the switch from The Brady Anderson way to the right, you know, the buck era to this. Like all of these achievers that we’ve talked about, have flourished in various ways in side of the Elias ship, right, right?
Luke Jones 08:24
And, but there’s still been ups and downs for those guys, right? I mean, Jackson holiday is going to be a huge part of of what they’re projecting to be as an offense in 2024
08:35
and, and there’s no reason for them not to think that, but he’s got to go out and do it, right? I mean, that’s why we always say that can’t miss prospects can still miss or can still have some bumps in the road. I mean, we
Nestor Aparicio 08:46
also encourage that or lottery picks, they
Luke Jones 08:48
had to lose 100 games to draft those rights and Colton cows are his first month and a half in the majors. Two years ago, was a disaster, but he was second in rookie of the year this past year. So So look, that is still a big part of where the Orioles are going is still these young players taking the next step. I mean, that’s part of it, and that doesn’t mean they’re all going to become gunner Henderson, meaning they’re MVP candidates, but that’s still a big part of it. But what the Orioles are faced with now is why people have pointed out, over the last three to four years how they have drafted so many college hitters, how they have drafted so many hitters? In general, when you throw Jackson holiday being a one one into the mix, and they haven’t drafted as many pitchers, this is what you’re faced with. So how do they proceed from here if they’re not going to sign a free agent pitcher to a big money contract? And look, a lot of them have come off the board at this point. You know, whether the whether the Orioles are really in on them or not. I mean, you don’t get any about the
Nestor Aparicio 09:47
crochet deal, because they had the artillery to make that kind of deal right, like they could have dealt, dealt, I’m making this up, right? Cows are in this and that, or whatever. You know, they could have done something. Thing to maybe make that work. But to your point, then you wind up continuing to give away these guys on the cheap to bring to continue down the cheap path while you give away or t you know, you start giving these players away. And then you say, in 2027 Well, we have to give gunner Henderson 50 million a year. Now, we had him in a bag of donuts because we’re not going to get anything. I i There’s a lot of ways to do this. Yeah, I just don’t know what way they’re trying to do it. It’s all shrouded in secrecy and what. But you want the fans to buy in. You’re, I mean, I had Robbie Leonard on the other day data fade leads, and you talked about the Birdland membership and his money in and point like, people are talking to me about that, Acosta’s what I’m doing the show on Wednesday, because they’re getting there in and and they want to invest in I’ve been holding my credit card up. I have been writing notes. I have been applying for credentials. I’ve done everything I can do. You know, I’m not begging them to come back and give them money. I’m not, but it doesn’t make me less interested in the drama of all of it and how it all works, and you and I talking about it three days a week, but there is no plan here and anything in the past that they would like to blow up. You know, they’re trying to blow up the fact that Angelos was ever around here. We’re all just going to forget about that. Like like that didn’t the 10,000 empty seats were the reminder. And when I met Mr. Rubenstein, I told him that. And at some point, the level of confidence for the community and saying, We know what the plan is like, I think the crochet thing would have been a big deal here, right amongst the Oriole people who know baseball had remade that deal. And that my, you know, my wife was on her phone and told me, and I wasn’t on my phone. I’m like, did we make that deal? And you know why? Because we can, and we have that team that made that deal for Well, I’ve had this tech service 16 years. We I haven’t had to worry on a December night that they were going to make that kind of deal. It burns last year or crochet this. Now, their division rival did it right and gave away a little piece of the like, and all of that dude, I don’t want to play against him. I mean, that guy’s, you know, like, so when it comes down to scuba and him and what’s possible, and I don’t know it feels like anything’s possible, because they do have the money, but until they spend it, it doesn’t feel like it’s anything’s changed, and I think they have to make great strides. And I’ve said this, this has nothing to do with the team on the field. They have to make great strides everywhere else to show that they’re different, that this is different, and they do. Haven’t done that
Luke Jones 12:34
but, but you still need to do that within the context of what you think makes sense for your organization, in terms of winning, in terms of sustaining winning, in terms of not just spending money for the sake of doing it. Because we, we can all remember, ate that last week, eight years ago, the the Orioles did that with Chris Davis, and it was a spectacular failure, right? It was a spectacular miss. Uh, awful. But go back and look at everyone’s timelines at that point in time. Lot of Orioles fans were really happy
Nestor Aparicio 13:00
about Adley rutschman. They could be two, 50 million into him right now from last year. And we all would have applauded it the day Rubenstein came in, right like we could have been, and he still could have hit what he hit. And that’s right, you know. And
Luke Jones 13:10
look and look, there’s always going to be unknown. There’s always going to be risk here. There’s the Mets did not sign Juan Soto to the deal they did, expecting that his age 3637 3839 and I think he’s signed through age 40, right? I think, I mean, it’s wild. They know that those deal, the money he’s making at that point, even taking into account inflation and where salaries are going to go and better be a statue in front of that place at the end. But the point is, they know that the last five years of that deal, at a minimum are going to be a loser, because we just know that’s how this works and and this is part of what I’ve said about the burns deal in a vacuum. I don’t love the idea of giving Corbin burns eight years, because his strikeout rate is trended in the wrong direction for four years now, and that’s not going to reverse, so you might get two more years of true, bonafide ace performance from him, and then he might settle into being more of a number two number three type for two more years after that. That’s assuming he doesn’t get hurt. And I know he’s been very durable, but guys are durable until they’re not. And again, not trying to go off on a tangent here, there’s risk involved with any of these deals. We know that, right? So it’s attract ease for pitching. I mean, oh, exactly so. So that’s where I look at this. And I say, Okay, we don’t know what they’re ultimately, what their payroll is ultimately going to be this year, let alone trying to project that out the next five years. To your point, there are a lot of mitigating circumstances with the business, mass in ballpark renovations, all these different things in terms of trying to
Nestor Aparicio 14:41
see their future financially, I only know it will grow if they do well here, and they’re well led, and the community buys in, and I buy in, and everybody buys in. When that happens, that will allow them to have $194 million payroll. And. And Henderson, if they’re both going to the Hall of Fame, like I’m down with all of that, but I need to see some left. I need to have a level of confidence about their competence. And part of that would be, where’s the path. Show me the light. Show me the plan. And to your point, as we sit here, and when I sit with the smartest people I can find who’ve done this forever, there is no that the crystal ball is murky for their revenues in the future, if they don’t get on white, on old, you know, like all of this, right? Like they need to get people, they need to get revenue. They need to get more people watching the game. They need to get lacrosse players watching the games. They need to do all of that, because that’s how you get one Soto. That’s how you or you’re just a billionaire. That’s like, I’m 74 and I got money to piss away. Let’s go. I thought that’s who we had, honestly. I thought we had the guy saying, Yeah, we’re in with the Yankees. Of course. I’m gonna have to throw another 100 million a year. We’re gonna have to make a splash. That guy destroyed the franchise, we’re going to have to do unorthodox things in order for me to win a World Series by the time I’m 80, and to do the little tap dance down Pratt street and be hero. I mean, I don’t know what else to say. That would have been my reality for him, but that’s not what the smoke blowers around him are giving him in owning the franchise and managing it responsibly, and all the things you just said about, well, we don’t want to spend it too much. I mean, they have the fan base already not feeling like they have to spend money, because they’ve been talked into not spending money. And I That’s cool, but that doesn’t get anybody excited either. And the thing gets people excited winning. I’ll give you all of that, but they kind of are hand in hand to some degree. This time of year when you’re playing poker with do we want crochet? Do we want Juan Soto? You know, they’re only the best players, but they’re really expensive. We don’t, yeah, we’ll just eat sirloin this year for the holidays and and that, when we’ve been doing that for 30 years, and that, that part of it doesn’t feel different to me,
Luke Jones 17:01
fair enough. I mean, you know, we’ve had this debate slash argument for a long time. You know, they won 101 games last year or two years ago, with a very, very young core that was complimented by the likes of Kyle Gibson and James McCann and guys like that. So okay, look, you need to progress. You need to advance. And I don’t mean in terms of 101 wins becomes 108 I mean in terms of what we’re we’ve all been talking about winning in October, just like we’re talking about with the Ravens winning in January, right? That’s the next step. So how do you go about doing that? Yeah, look, Corbin burns would help that a ton. Are they willing to pay what Scott Boris wants, what Corbin burns want? It’s hard to say until we see them do that. It’s hard to to imagine that. So let’s work under the assumption that they don’t. What they have done, however, is traded for another team’s ace. So you kind of look and see what’s out there. Dylan ceases. Name has come up once again. Now it’s a one year rental, so you’re kind of in the position of one. Are the Padres willing to trade him because they want to win competitive team, right? But they also are a team that you know their former, late owner had extended himself financially by all accounts, so they’re trying to rein that back in. It’s just a matter of how much.
Nestor Aparicio 18:22
Oh and talk about media problems. They don’t own a mass Exactly, exactly. So look.
Luke Jones 18:30
So that’s why I mean, the point I want to acknowledge, everything you say about the future of this franchise is valid in terms of it being murky, but it’s like that across baseball right now. I mean, Rob Manfred, very clearly has a vision. And I’m not saying this to be complimentary of Rob Manfred. I don’t think very much of Rob Manfred,
Nestor Aparicio 18:49
yeah, we haven’t talked about that stupid rule that they the bananas rule, but by the
Luke Jones 18:54
way, that it sounded like the genesis of that was always supposed to be more of an exhibition thing, like maybe they do that in the All Star game. But anyway, I don’t want to get off track too much on that. But I think when you look at where they are right now, it’s like, okay, there’s Dylan cease, the other name that’s come up. And again, there are always these types of pictures that can potentially be available. Where’s the sweet spot? Where’s the happy medium here? And I look at someone like Luis Castillo, whose name has been brought up as a potential trade in Seattle. The mariners we’ve talked about this, we talked about this last year. Their rotation fantastic, their offense was horrendous last year, and it’s why they didn’t go anywhere, right? And it’s why they fell short. But is there a trade to be made? And Castillo is not a rental. Now, couple things I want to point out. He is 32 years old. He is signed through, I think it’s 2027 it is a deal that I think the breakdown is roughly 2524 25 million a year. He does have a vesting option for 2028 point is that. This would be a financial commitment, even more so than what Zach eplin was at the trade deadline last year, where it was the Orioles taking on one year of salary. This would be taking on a player that is not a rental, a player who is going to have some decline, but is still pitching at a high level. If you look at the peripherals, it’s not something to say, Oh, this guy’s ready to fall off a cliff, necessarily. But you look at this and say, Okay, is there a deal to be made here, Seattle, apparently, is interested in a right handed hitting first baseman. The Orioles have that in Ryan mountcastle. They’ve re signed Ryan O’Hearn Kobe Mayo’s future spot is first base, you know that? Or, dH, right? I mean, I mean, that’s what they’re looking at, and I’m not ready to write him off. So the point is here, not that Ryan mount Castle alone would net you Castillo, but he could he be one of the pieces that helped land you that and because you’re taking on the amount of salary that you would be taking on, you’re not necessarily going to have to give up an arm and a leg in terms of prospects to get him. So is there a match there? As I we mentioned, Dylan cease. So it’s not as though that their options have run dry, but some of these options have dried up, where you’re starting to look at this and say, Are you going to have to go the trade route again? And because they’ve done it once, because we know that they’re willing to part with prospects, because they have this farm system. I mean, if you want an idea of how teams view their farm system, they lost six players in the triple A Rule five draft on twos on Wednesday. That tells you what teams think about their farm system, and those are lower level guys. So it it tells you it’s not, it’s not a hoax. Their farm systems legit, but if you’re not going to go out and be a player for Max freed or Corbin burns, fine, we’ve talked about it, those are very perilous investments that you’re making, even though you love the upside. So you need to find a happy medium. And I don’t think it’s necessarily continuing to just trade for rental pitchers, because that’s going to deplete your farm system without giving you the long term stability you desire. So that’s where I do look at someone like Luis Castillo and say, Hey, there’s a guy that, okay, maybe the last year that deal. He might, he might not be a bonafide ace at that point. And you know, that’s not going to be, but by then, maybe Kyle, you know, by then Kyle bratis should be back. You hope, you pray because of what kind of pitcher he is, Grayson Rodriguez should be in his prime at that point. You might not need Luis Castillo in two years to be your bona fide ace. But for what he can be for 2025 you know, matching him up with E and Grayson Rodriguez and Dean Kramer in the back end. And we’ll see about Trevor Rogers. We’ll see about, you know, you go down the list of the different guys they have in, you know, in the mix right now, Albert Suarez, you know that that might be an option there, and that might be something that isn’t going to crush their farm system. It would be a payroll commitment, which isn’t going to be Corbin burns in terms of people doing cartwheels, but Luis Castillo is a three time all star pitcher, so I’m not saying that’s going to happen. I’m just saying that there, there is an example of an option out there, of kind of a middle ground there, where you make a trade, but you’re also taking on some real salary that should hypothetically depress what the what the ask is in terms of the prospects, you have to give up a little bit and but
Nestor Aparicio 23:27
at that point, you’re saving Mr. Rubenstein money in 2029 you know, and the risk of Corbin burns arm falling off in year four of an eight year deal. And listen, I’m not with you? What? When I, when I do the Stockholm Syndrome thing with the owners? I’m not on Team Boris either, where you’re asking for eight years and fundamentally held the sport up. I’ve witnessed this for 30 years. I’m not on Team agent, team player, Team union. You know any of I’ve watched all of this depress everything about baseball in my community, and certainly a surly owner here the last 30 years that didn’t play the game, got himself out of it. Poor mouthed himself into poor mouthing himself into an empty stadium, turning a full franchise into a poverty franchise in a generation like I witnessed that here and these people don’t have enough wherewithal to even realize that I’ve witnessed it, and then I’m going to be here on the radio talking about it and on the internet amongst their fan base and in every Costas, in every bar, talking about it, not not your mamas anymore, which is really unfortunate. I do hope the thing gives me the Charlie Ekman memorabilia around there so I can have it. But I would just say they do. They have two seasons off season, and in season they need to win them both. The NFL has been winning them both here for 27 years, and that led that started with me running draft parties over Benigno station in the barn and getting people lubed up in the off season. About anybody knew who Phil savageric Costa was? You? You know, so like getting people excited, which has been job number one with the NFL, to the point where you get nauseated by but the NFL would look at you and your brother and say, you little wrestling fans, Vince doesn’t take a week off. Vince goes 53 weeks. So, you know, we’re not taking a week. I mean, the baseball team just takes off. I just large stretches of time or runs from people like us that are fans who just want answers and want to be straight and want to say, what is the plan here, now that there’s allegedly sane people running the franchise, right like, literally, community people, local people, like all of this, get out in front of this, and get Luke and I confident, get all of us confident in what ever the plan might be. But this is the time where we’re all like, what’s going on. But I would say there’s no text outside the bounds that you could send from W, N, S, T of their finances, wherewithal, farm, they can make any if they could have gotten for sure, if they wanted to, then they, you know, so they can make any deal. They could have signed one soda, they could have done anything they wanted to do. Now, what are they going to do? And then that’s for you and me as journalists. Well, one of us is to judge it and evaluate it in the off season, because the fans are trying to buy in and figure it out too. I I’m out and face and they’re asking the fans for money. I’m not giving them any money. I’m not I mean, they’re not giving me my prescript. They don’t give me my credibility that I’m not going to give them money. But you and I have credibility about all this, and everybody I know who buys tickets has the credibility of, Am I in or am I out, and why am I in, and how much am I in, and where can I find the games, and what’s the plan around here? I don’t know. That’s a really, really fair questions. Mr. Rubenstein, Katie Gray, there really are. They’re fair questions for the community, and they need to be answered. And we’re finding out on the outside at the winter meetings and through this period of time, and I’m with you, they didn’t get burns until Super Bowl time. So, like, there’s, there’s time, but we’re watching, we’re watching and we’re waiting and we’re asking questions and that. And look, a lot of people that aren’t buying the 10,000 people in the upper decade didn’t come, they’re not asking questions, you know. So we are
Luke Jones 27:21
okay. I mean, I hear you. You’re going to continue to talk about that.
Nestor Aparicio 27:23
That’s a big deal.
Luke Jones 27:26
It is. But there are also a lot of variables that you continue to kind of graze over anyway. Big picture, yes, they need to grow their fan base. There’s no doubt about it. And everything you said is valid, and I’m not disagreeing with you at the same time we don’t, you know. And you use the Ravens because you use the Ravens because you keep using that as the example, because it’s the only other major professional sport in town, they also didn’t. We’ve never seen the Ravens go out and spend money foolishly in free agency, either. They’ve done it the way that they do it. They have a method to their madness, and it doesn’t always work out perfectly, but that’s also part of this. I mean, for as much as we keep talking about David Rubenstein and you keep bringing up Katie Griggs. Katie Griggs isn’t making baseball decisions. David Rubenstein, I don’t think is making very many baseball decisions beyond what does Mike Elias, you know what? What in terms of payroll? What does he think is good investor? Payroll
Nestor Aparicio 28:13
is the decision, though, Luke, that’s my point. My point is the payroll is the decision.
Luke Jones 28:17
It is, but it’s also a moving target, because you have, you don’t have players who, you have so many young players who are big parts of this, who you are trying to plan out what this is going to look like. I hope there’s at least an idea that you’re going to, you know, a plan to try to sign gunner Henderson, for example. I hope it’s not just, oh, he’s gone in four years. Because, well,
Nestor Aparicio 28:42
Soto just got 760 if Henderson’s almost that Good, there you go. There’s your math, you know, why would Scott Boris take a nickel less than that? Why would gunner Henderson taking
Luke Jones 28:53
nickel? Gunner Henderson’s not Juan Soto just yet. I mean, let’s see in a few any point
Nestor Aparicio 28:58
is, well, that’s why, that’s why he wouldn’t take 300 million. Now that point is 900 million.
Luke Jones 29:03
So there are a lot of ways to do this, and baseball is not like the NFL, where a franchise quarterback like Juan Soto didn’t the Yankees had Juan Soto last year. They didn’t win the World Series, right? Even though he’s the highest paid player in baseball. You know, the Dodgers had Otani, who didn’t even pitch, right? I mean, he was just a DH last year and still won MVP, of course. But we know that baseball is not a sport that has any player that’s truly going to be as valuable as what a franchise quarterback is in the NFL. So my point in saying that is not that you don’t love to have players in that tax bracket, in that eight on that pay scale, if you have an owner who’s willing to spend that which you know, Cohen and the Mets are kind of even they’re leaving separation between themselves and even the other big spenders at this point in time. I mean, that’s how crazy it’s been, because even the Dodgers how they’ve. Rated has been to defer, defer, defer the money, whereas with this deal, there wasn’t, you know, from what I understand, there’s no deferred money. So, but, but the point with this, the point I’m trying to make, and this is where I’m trying to preach some level of patience, but at the same time, until they do anything, you can only go off of your priors, right? And in the In fairness to David Rubenstein, we’re only talking about one trade deadline, and now what has been roughly a month of an off season. So that’s not really a big sample to judge too harshly or to be too positive on the on the flip side, just because they signed Tyler O’Neill to a three year deal that might still end up being a one year deal with an opt out. So you know, I don’t want to get ahead of ourselves, one way or the other. But, yeah, people are, you know, expectations have been raised, and that’s a good thing. That’s a credit to Mike Elias. It’s a credit to sigma Idell and the front office and the work that they’ve done from what this thing was when they arrived in November of 2018 dude.
Nestor Aparicio 30:58
You can go back to the tapes of me and may talking about it being better than it’s ever been, and talking about Bobby rich and Don Baylor and rich Coggins and Al bumbury and what that era was. And if you see al out of Robbie’s first base, ask him Hall of Famer al bumbu, ask him so.
Luke Jones 31:15
So now it’s about taking the next step and look, just because it’s not signing Juan Soto doesn’t mean that there aren’t still very, very important steps to take, even if it’s not re signing Corbin burns. Look at a team like the Braves. They haven’t necessarily gone out and signed a ton of outside free agents, but what have they done? They’ve kept a lot of their own. And not to say they haven’t signed free agents, let me be clear, but they clearly prioritized signing some of their own that they had developed. And you know, we’ve talked about this with the Cardinals, you know, example, over the last 25 years. So there are lots of ways to do this, and that’s why I bring up Luis Castillo. I bring up Dylan cease. Maybe they still do resign Corbin burns, right? I mean, I’m not saying that’s impossible. If Scott Boris says that they’ve been in the mix, I don’t think he’d have any reason to to lie. If David Rubenstein and the Orioles are still operating exactly the same way as they did on under John,
Nestor Aparicio 32:15
if they’ve offered 200 million for burns and the going rates, 280 then, you know, then there, that’s certainly 100 million more than dear Angelo’s ever brought to the table. But it’s saying is
Luke Jones 32:30
right, we were, we’ve been there before. I mean, the in the Angelo era, I mean, they did that with Mark teira, right? It wasn’t 200 million. But your The point was, they tried to sign them, but
Nestor Aparicio 32:38
over a machine of plenty of money.
Luke Jones 32:43
Sid thrift talking about Confederate money way back when, right? I mean, you know, so
Nestor Aparicio 32:48
I’m with you. I’m here against today. Don’t bow in the bar stool. They have no idea about Sid thrifting Confederate money. That’s why they need to read the Peter principles. But
Luke Jones 32:56
you look at it, you look at it and say, look, it’s great to hear that they’re being aggressive or they’re in on these guys, but at some point you gotta land someone, and this is where I go back to even someone like me who prides myself in being more of a baseball nerd, right? And look, you don’t have to be a genius to see how many of these long term, lucrative pitching contracts have not worked out very well. I mean, they don’t. A lot of them have not for everyone. Where you say, Hey, that was a great deal. You can find a few to say old that was mediocre at best, and some of them are a disaster. So there is risk, risk involved. And it’s really easy for me to sit here and try to spend someone else’s money, $300 million to a picture. But at the same time, if you do want to take the next step, if you do want to make sure that this isn’t just, hey, you know, they’re pretty good in the regular season, but you don’t really take them too much more seriously than that, then, yeah, at some point in time, you’re going to have to take some risk. And look, that started last February when they acquired Corbin burns. You know, they they gave up Joey Ortiz and DL Hall, even though I certainly don’t think that that was going to make or break their franchise. But what’s the next step? Now, is it signing someone or is it making another trade? And like I said, maybe the happy medium is someone like a Luis Castillo, where you make the trade you’re you’re absolutely committing money, because he signed for three more years, you know, with a vesting option after that. But in the process of doing that, you might not need to give up your very best prospects to get them. You know, you’re gonna have to give up something, but it might be Ryan mount castle and, you know, prospect from the top of their second tier, and, you know, maybe a couple middling guys after that. I don’t know. Again, I’m not a I’m not going to sit here saying that I have the chops of a GM to try to figure out the valuation of prospects who, in some cases, maybe I’ve seen play once in the minor leagues. So I’m not going to try to fool anyone here. But the point is, there are lots of ways to do this, but you’re right. I mean, you have a fan base right now that’s sitting back. It that is certainly more excited about the team than they were four years ago. I think that’s obvious, because they have done some winning in the regular season, but they haven’t even won a playoff game yet.
Nestor Aparicio 35:12
I mean, I’m sitting up because he won 101 games two years ago, but I also saw what their pitching was and what their prospects were, and what their players were, and what Santander became, and where, you know, cows are, and westburg, and these guys came in and came and rushman and to the point where he wasn’t, like, Dude, I watched a lot, a lot, a lot, a lot of shitty baseball here, man, look at you’ve seen a lot more me. Like, I know what’s good, and I know what’s potential. And I also know for 30 years, I sat here and talked about, when we get up that mountain, we’ll we’ll spend the money. And that was all bullshit because of who owned the team. Now I’m willing to give, even though they’re not willing to give me a blank sheet of paper, I’m willing to give them a blank sheet of paper and say, what are you what are you going to be? How are you going to answer this? And I’m just waiting for something that looks and feels different, because these people have emerged and arrived at it, really, at a at a flexion point for the franchise, with growth, media turnover, all white people dying, city, changing reputation chain, like all of that happening while Camden Yards turns 30 years old, and while they have two, maybe three generational players, Henderson, rushman holiday, how did they get these players? They lost 112 games every year so and then when these guys blossom, they’re all going to be $700 million players in our mind, right? Because they’re all going to the Hall of Fame, right? So where is the revenue? Where is the model who’s doing the homework? Where are the people on the streets that are going to get people energized by this? And I’ve been talking about this forever, and this is the time of the year where you get a little energized, because the promise was, when we’re ready to compete, we’ll spend money. And I could bring that chart up that I shared about how they only committed 56 million, and now you can add the 50 million in that they have committed over the next couple years to to the Red Sox outfielder Tyler O’Neill, and that’s cool, but they’re a billion. They just sold for 1,000,000,008 of depressed value. They got $600 million like, if he’s gonna play this like Angelo’s and say, Well, what were our revenues last year? Okay, what is the industry? Well, okay, then we’re just gonna spend, you know, 140 1 million, and that’s what we’re gonna do. And what, Mike, whatever it takes. I’m off, mate. I’m off shooting my podcast. See you later, buddy. And Mike gets his 140 you know, wherever that is and whatever that adds up to is what it is. And if that’s what it’s going to be, if that’s the way they’re going to play it until times get better, and Katie fixes the business, and we all go sell sweets and create money, and Nestor and his wife give him $600 a year, and like, until we can become that 170 $5 million payroll, they come on, man, these are billionaires. You know what? I mean. They bought into this. They threw out hats. They made commercials. Now it’s time to follow up on that promise made by the liars and and like, they’re ready to compete. They’re ready to be a big boy franchise, then don’t be 33rd in spending in the league. You know, like they’re
Luke Jones 38:28
not going to be just, just by, strictly by the number of players that are arbitration eligible and all that. They’re not going to be at that. They would have to, they would have to start trading away players for that. But, and by the way, none
Nestor Aparicio 38:39
of that makes their team any better. Spending more money on their own players, right? Doesn’t really make their team any better this year.
Luke Jones 38:48
Where I’ll push back a little bit, though, is when you do have the young players that they have, there also is a fair, reasonable projection for guys to be better than they’ve been. And when you talk, when you’re talking about in those terms, that’s where it is exciting for them, and that’s where, probably on the offensive side. And what’s funny about this, because I was having this conversation with someone the other day, you know, someone who’s not in the baseball media, but has been in the past, was talking about this. And you know that person pointed out, you know, as much as we’re talking about burns and pitching and all that their offense is what failed them at the end of last year. So, you know, and this person wasn’t even someone that was enamored, that said, Oh, you must sign Anthony Santander. But the point was more like, is Tyler O’Neill really going to be the big, splashy, offensive edition? And that’s really it. You know, that him and, you know, swapping out Gary Sanchez, you know, for James McCann and
Nestor Aparicio 39:42
moving the wall in, and you can add eight home runs to
Luke Jones 39:47
sure, but you’re also going to add eight more that your your pitching is going to give up. So, you know, with that, and look, I don’t have a I didn’t have a major problem with the wall, like, to me, the whole thing was, it was just too extreme at once. Right? They should have just done what they ended up doing. This what they’re doing now is what they should have just done to begin with. It should have been, well,
Nestor Aparicio 40:06
my thing is doing a Friday afternoon news drop on it to hide from it is, it wasn’t. That’s Angelo’s, you know? That’s but, but, I mean, I don’t know, you’re way more hung up that I agree with so many of the other points you’re making. I think making a Friday news dump, like making the thing out of that. No one cared about that, that, as far as the timing of that, nobody cares about the walls. If we’re going to talk about it every game, we are, I
Luke Jones 40:33
won’t. Other people will, because at some point in time it’s like the wall is the wall, like people were still talking about it last year. I’m like, Guys, it’s been three years now. What are we doing here?
Nestor Aparicio 40:41
Anyone, when they moved it again, they, you know, my biggest complaint with that is not the timing
Luke Jones 40:45
of it, it’s that esthetically, it’s not going to look good, you know, until they figure out what they’re going to do with that space, which look, they’ll probably turn it into like a party deck or something, once they do like the long term renovations over the next two, three years. But, you know, to bring it back full circle, though, look, they’ve got, I want to remind everyone they still have a really young nucleus that already has darn good baseball players, has some others who should get better, multiple players who should get better, including one who could be an absolute superstar in Jackson holiday who, I get it, he didn’t Put up great numbers this past year. He’s 20 years he’s 20 years old. He’s also learning a new position. You know, I think it’s, it’s prudent to be patient, right? I think it’s appropriate to be patient.
Nestor Aparicio 41:30
Oh, I’m not kicking any of these young guys. I need to get them enough pitching so that when cows are turns it up. West Berg turns it back on. Rushman figures it out. Holiday figures it out. Henderson knocks him in O’Neill. It stays healthy and gives you under 30 games, like all of the Keep in mind, again, wasn’t that but, but even with everything they went through, they’re pitching. Their pitching wasn’t the problem at the end of the season, right? And look, I get it. Corbin Burns was a big part of that, but he wasn’t the only part of that. Don’t even get my voice. My boy Suarez a chance to save their asses to
Luke Jones 42:06
score a couple runs, and we could have seen how that all would have played out, but, but the point is, yeah, they need to go get a starting pitcher. There’s no question about that. And I’ll be screaming and howling at the moon as much as anyone if, if it’s the third week in February, and they’ve reported, and they’re trying to sell everyone on on
Nestor Aparicio 42:24
Cade Povich, which I want scuba. I want scuba. Can I say that I want scuba? Let’s go.
Luke Jones 42:29
Is Detroit going to give him up? No, I think that’s different now, so, but like I said, Look, if you can get Luis Castillo, if you can get Dylan cease, I’m not saying in terms of perception, that’s Corbin burns. But Dylan sees, had a heck of a year this past year, right? And it would kind of be Corbin burns part two, in terms of, like, okay, you’ve acquired a number, another ace in a contract year. What’s going to happen this time around? That’s why, to me, the Castillo thing’s interesting, just from a standpoint of, it’s kind of the middle ground of, yes, you’re trading for him, but he also has three more years on his contract, which, hey, again, I’m not saying he’s going to be peak Luis Castillo, but you’re talking about a guy who’s been an all star pitcher, a guy who, looking at it, you know, he’s fifth in Cy Young voting two years ago, so in 23 so you know this, This is a, he’s a, he’s a number one
Nestor Aparicio 43:22
question behind the closed doors is, if I knew Mike Elias and we were having a coffee today, whether he would say we’re out on burns. He was a girlfriend, you know, I think, like we we did something, and then we liked him, but we didn’t love him, and we didn’t love him long time. And we don’t think he’s Jim Palmer, and we don’t, you know, I mean, and would he make us better this year? Absolutely. But I’m not spending 200 million of Mr. Rubenstein’s money on that well. And here’s, you know what I mean like, and that’s, that’s a fine truth. And here’s the problem with that. The scenario might have been that two, 250,
Luke Jones 43:58
they might have said, we’ll do it. We’ll do it. It’s gonna be bold, it’s risky, but we’ll do it. But we’ve seen how this the markets go. Look at the projections from people that are way smarter than me at the start of the off season for what these pitchers are gonna get. It’s exceeded that. I mean, it has. That’s why I kind of laugh when you know, you hear about the the overall health of the sport, then you see these record breaking contracts continuing to happen, albeit the same six teams that are signing them, these
Nestor Aparicio 44:23
guys are billionaires throwing money around, let them have a good time. You know, sure, sure. I’m
Luke Jones 44:27
not. I’m not. I’m not bashing that, but I My point is, I’m guessing there was a path. And who knows, maybe I’m wrong, and maybe we’re going to be sending out a W, N, S, D, text that they signed Corbyn burns to a $300 million contract. I’m not going
Nestor Aparicio 44:45
to sit here and Mr. Rubenstein has the money. Yeah, yeah, but, but
Luke Jones 44:48
that said my my scenario, and I don’t know this, this is purely my speculation, purely me making an educated guess. Here is that there was a path. There was enough. Number that was a realistic number at the beginning of the off season, if the market broke a certain way, and this team landed this pitcher, or this team landed this position player. And all those projections that, like I said, even the fan graphs and different sites like that had a lot of those, have been blown out of the water. And then it just gets to a point where we say, where Michaelia, maybe even says to David Rubenstein, to your to your point, your scenario, where you say, I like Corbin burns. I don’t love him so much. To go extend ourselves to that degree, I’d rather take that money and use that towards A, B and C over the next five years. I I’m just saying I think that’s how this that’s how this front office operates. I mean it, it’s very much a they’re very methodical. They’re very process oriented. I guarantee you they’ve laid out plan A, B, C, D, E, F and G in terms of what they feel they need to do, and they are not going to be emotional about players. They’re not going to be sentimental. We saw that when they traded Trey Mancini a couple years ago. By the way, trading Trey Mancini was smart. Trey Mancini is out of baseball at this point. I love Trey, but there are a lot of Orioles fans who wanted to see the Orioles sign him to a three year deal. They were right. Getting rid of him from a baseball standpoint, doesn’t make it any easier. No, I think these guys know what they’re doing now, you know, like, you’ll get me to say Mike Elias and say, but they know a lot more about that what they were doing if they had the Yankees payroll. I mean, like, and literally, and the Red Sox stealing from the bottom of their deck to bring an ace in. And I’m not feeling at their last two first round picks. And you know, they traded some real prospects. I mean, not that the Orioles couldn’t have matched that or exceeded that if they wanted to. I’m not at all suggesting that. But, you know, they traded their last two first round picks, uh, understanding the Red Sox weren’t drafting one one. I understand that, but, but I think you know the point I was trying to make. You know, with Elias and with this group, you know, they’re going to be very methodical, and they have in this. And this is similar to how Eric da Costa and Ozzie Newsome have operated. They have numbers, and I get it. There’s not a hard cap in the sport, but there are luxury tax thresholds that have, frankly, acted like a cap for everyone but the Steve Cohens of the world, right? And I’m not saying that’s a good or bad thing. That’s how it’s it’s been, but they look at this through the lens of, it’s not Oh, we must have Corbin burns. It’s Oh, we need to go get a starting pitcher who’s worth that in terms of wins, and we’re going to project Grayson Rodriguez to be this in terms of how many wins they’re worth. And we got Zach Eflin at the deadline last year with the idea of not just for 24 but also he’s going to be our number two starter, maybe, hope not your number one, but he’s going to be a top half of the rotation starter for us in 25 because we’re not going to have Kyle Bradish until August
Nestor Aparicio 47:49
at best. I think deft at how they’ve done this, right? So I’m not what I’m addressing right now is how the payroll change in the ownership change will make them even better. It should. And this is
Luke Jones 48:00
where, and this is where, and this is where I’m going to provide the caveat for no matter how smart you are in terms of how you’re trying to operate, with your process, with with your organization, with your your fiscal responsibility, which everyone has it. You know, even the Yankees show it. You know, they showed restraint that they weren’t going to sign Juan Soto at any cost, even though they had an offer that was right up there. But the problem is, even the smartest, absolute smartest, executives who’ve done this for a long time use Billy Beane as a perfect example. Though, you know, he operated in a has operated in a small market setting in Oakland, with ownership that didn’t want to spend, but they will all tell you that you can have all the numbers in the world with your projections in a vacuum, what a player should be worth. But at the end of the day, it’s still an open market, and you’re still going to at some point in time, if you really want to get the player if you really want to nail down the guy that you feel you need to have that’s really going to make your team better and get you over the hump, you know, the proverbial hump, you’re going to have to extend yourself. It’s going to be more than what your models say you should spend on it. So the problem, What’s tricky about that is doing that in the right case, because you don’t want it to be Chris Davis, right? You don’t want it to be Chris Davis. You don’t want
Nestor Aparicio 49:25
to consider that a way of life. So is, so is Moneyball, right? Like all of that, the books and movies written on that. Does it win championships? I don’t know you. When was the last parade? That was Tampa, the last parade? No, like, so there is a point where you have to extend, yep, where you say that that that’s a model to be good. But like the book, The Good to Great. We want to be great. Mr. Angelo’s can’t own the team and have it be great. I’ve been saying that for as long as I’ve been on the radio, could never be great because it was poor. And I have the same issue with all of this. In saying, like. Uh, I’ll leave you with this, because I do want to be a prick and drop the ball, because it’s the holidays, you know, and I have a crap kick through next week all of this scuttlebutt on Soto and the Yankees, because you just said something to kind of like, got to me. You’re like, the Yankees came close and they didn’t win, and they showed restraint, and in the end, it’s seven, $50 million and as Rex Ryan said these baseball guys, they got to set the market. It’s clear
Luke Jones 50:23
restraint is in air quotes there, right? Fair enough? Yeah,
Nestor Aparicio 50:26
I heard the scuttlebutt about Soto being pissed about the Yankees and his family being mistreated, like, literally. And I’m thinking to myself, That’s so one Soto, that’s so Latin, that’s so you know, like, that’s where I am with it, and saying how you’re treated and and the stuff that happens behind the scenes in every case, as we talk about Deontay Johnson on the football side this week, and things that happen behind closed doors that affect those kinds of things, taking care of your people to some degree that that one Soto thing would even get out or be a part of that. That’s so Juan Soto, because he comes with drama, and that you bought that too. You put you bought the drama, and that’s part of all of it. But I just would say, the perception that it’s a good place to be. And I’ll give you an example. Every time I talk to Mark Messina, I don’t talk to Mike much at all. But I talked to Mark, he always, and Mark’s always honest with me. He’s like, when Mike got there, from the minute he got there, it felt like he was in a real place, that there were things that were always broken around the or it was like major league, you know, something, something’s broken, it gets fixed in a minute, because Mr. Steinbrenner won’t have it any other way. And that’s kind of the way, you know, Messina saw it that way when he changed places. And look, you can speak to this with the Ravens. The Ravens run a better operation than so many places, and so many players pull you up and talk about that. The Orioles need to be that place. And I guess that’s my point in mistreating me at the front door. I didn’t like it. I still don’t like it. I didn’t I was even nice to Mr. Rubenstein out at Beth to Philly last month. But like, there is a point where, like, get to make this a place you want to be, and part of that is Corbin burns came in here and laid out now, whether they like him or not, or whether they love him as a human, and putting them on the wall and how they feel about him and all of that, especially with the Oriole fans that want to feel like Adam Jones’s family and Nick Markus his family, and like just all of that they they really need to. I’ll use a word here, and I’ll drop the ball on this. They’ve changed the culture, the culture of baseball in our community and the Orioles and our mindset, and make the Angelo’s thing. Go away and show us this really cool new thing we all need to give our get our credit cards out for. And it doesn’t need to be a new logo. It doesn’t need to be New Jersey. They don’t need to put Baltimore back on the Jersey. I spent the first half of my career doing that. They have players. It’s all here. It’s built. I’m interested you. And I talked for an hour in December about it. Let’s go. Let’s get it. Let’s get everybody excited about it. That’s all, you know, I’d be excited by scuba. I know part of that I’m asking them to do things they can’t do. They could have signed Soto. They could have dealt for crochet. There’s things they could do. And if they don’t do any of them, then they’re, you know, it’s gonna look like it’s half assed. And at some point, to not be half assed, they’re gonna have to sign somebody to $200 million you know, like, I or, or make a big deal to your point, and, yeah, I don’t know. I, I’d like to think that the new ownership was going to be more everything, you know. And I’ve been underwhelmed so far. And look, when they have the parade down Pratt Street, I’ll, you know, it’s fine, they’re right, and I’m wrong. But until then, I’ve been waiting since 1983 and out in front of it, and you and I are the only ones talking about this on the radio today. I’ll
Luke Jones 53:48
leave you with one point. The Rangers, two off seasons ago, signed Jacob deGrom, crazy, insane deal. Barely even pitched for them when they won the World Series that year because he got hurt. So look not saying that you don’t go do that, but hey, this is more about it’s, it’s about every sit on my lap little
Nestor Aparicio 54:07
Luke in the off season of 1988 the Orioles dealt Eddie Hall of Famers away. Okay? And what you know, like, so, yeah, listen, and this is where cows are, westburg holiday. To your point, they’re going to win because of them. You need to do everything man can do this card supplement is growing, and spend the money on the arms because gunner Henderson might not want to be here, and when his time comes, whoever owns the angels that week might have a bigger stick for it. I mean, the Las Vegas A’s might be a thing by then, and have money that is stored because of where they who knows who’s going to buy the Arizona Diamondbacks. And just say, I want the best player in the sport. How much is it? $1 billion well, I happen to have a diamond mine, so I’m going to buy that player like. Like sit around here, pine away thinking you’re going to sign gunner Henderson or that Adley rutschman is going to bounce back. Get the team right now that only thing, it’s Sammy Hagar right now. That’s all that matters right now. Or
Luke Jones 55:11
and also, in the process you win, you show those young guys that you’re committed to making this as great as possible, and then they’re way more open at that point in time that. Look, you’re not going to get a hometown discount, but if it’s Yankees versus Mets, the way that those offers have been reported, maybe they do take the Yankees. It’s a little bit less than that upstart team, because they’ve loved playing here and they’ve won here, and they’ve seen the commitment here, and that’s where they might take. I
Nestor Aparicio 55:38
see Ramirez in Cleveland, and that millions less. Yeah, yeah, all right. Lucas, Baltimore, Luke, I am Nestor. We still love baseball. We still talk baseball around here. If you see Katie Griggs, let her know I am Nestor. We are W NSD am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Baltimore Orioles, them birds and mouse horn at Baltimore positive. Stay with us. You.
