Luke Jones and Nestor discuss Orioles struggles in Los Angeles and Rutschman slump
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
orioles, month, pitching, year, playing, corbin, team, gunner, baseball, trade, irvin, henderson, burns, hit, stars, talking, august, pitch, nestor, win
SPEAKERS
Nestor Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T, Towson, Baltimore, Baltimore, positive. We’re still at it. Am 1570 ready to rock the opener for the Ravens next weekend watching the Orioles do their road trip thing out on the West Coast. I’m back from a couple of days off. We will be back on Wednesday with Maryland crab cake towards all brought to you by the Maryland lottery, the Gold Rush, sevens, doublers, I still have a handful. Still have a handful of these. I will have the Raven scratch offs by Wednesday. Also our friends at Liberty, pure solutions, putting us out on the oyster tour, beginning on Thursday, when the Ravens kick off. We’re going to do 26 oysters in 26 days. We’ll have the new logo next week in September, after Labor Day, some great Labor Day writings, all that. Brought to you by friends at Jiffy Lube multi care. They were powering Luke up, getting him back and forth to Owings Mills, which will be a big deal this week. But in the meantime, the orals are playing Late Night Baseball and not doing such a good job of it right now, Luke, it’s um, you know, it’s September now, and here we go. And everybody’s sort of caught up, and there’s this whole pack of American League teams. There’s not going to be a runaway and it’s going to be nip and tuck the whole way. But here comes this schedule with winnable games for the Orioles, right? Like they have the easiest schedule, they have a pathway to all of this. I’m trying to find strengths of the team as I see them, over the last 60 games, not over the we like Adley rutschman A lot. We like Mountie and holiday is going to hit more than 210 at some point is, I don’t know, but what the team is right now, it should be alarming to anybody that was watching this back in April and May.
Luke Jones 01:40
Yeah. Well, I mean, you still begin with the injuries and the pitching and what that looks like, what it could look like later in September, if they get Grayson Rodriguez back, if they get Zach Eflin back, obviously, Danny cool and Jacob Webb looks like he could be right around the corner. Eflin could be this weekend. But in in the interim, we continue to talk about the offense, we continue to talk about the defense, really not being all that good all year, but more hiccups than we saw earlier in the year. But I mean Nestor, the word that I keep coming back to is mediocrity. I mean, they’ve been mediocre, and I think they’ve been mediocre for two plus months now. But I’m going to continue to say this because it’s becoming more and more obvious, and I think Corbin burns with the month of August that he had, it came to the forefront a little bit more. If this team wants to be better than mediocre, even when they get some of their pitching, their injured pitchers, back this month, they need their stars to start playing like stars. I mean, Corbin burns terrible in August, Adley rutschman has and you can go and look at this Nestor. You can go on fan graphs or baseball reference, or whatever it is, and and do the filter. Look at the leaders in Major League Baseball, the American League, in hitting since July 1, Adley rutschman has been a bottom 10 hitter in Major League Baseball since July 1. He’s been replacement level. We’re not talking about a slump here. We’re talking about someone who’s been awful. Gunner Henderson is slumped in the second half of the season, but if you still look at his numbers, he’s still been an above average hitter. Now it’s been a far cry from being an MVP, and I’ll call him out on that too, but Adley rutschman, I mean, what’s the deal here? This is a guy that is supposed to be the franchise, and kind of the heartbeat of who they are. Is he hurt? If he’s hurt to the degree that he’s performing like this. He shouldn’t be playing because he’s been that bad. I mean, people earlier in the year, there was so much hand wringing about James McCann as the backup catcher. I mean, Ali rutmans Hit worse than James McCann hit over the first half of the season, when we’re talking about the last month or two. So, I mean, at some point in time, Look, I get it. The pitching injuries are, what they are. It’s really limited this team’s ceiling in terms of upside, as far as thinking about Kyle Bradish or John means or Tyler wells and certainly we knew Felix Batista wasn’t going to pitch all year. But they need Adley rutschman to be Adley rutschman. They need gunner Henderson to I knew. I figured he wasn’t going to keep up a 55 home run pace like he had in the first half, but Bobby Witt playing like an MVP. He’s not, you know, and that’s all we were talking about in the first half of the season. Was these two young stud shortstops and the all star voting race, and Corbin burns, who’s got a longer track record than either of those guys. I mean, he was terrible in August. You know, we’re, you know, we’re talking, we’ve talked so much in terms of, yeah, well, the Orioles try to resign. He didn’t pitch like someone you’d even want to try to resign to what the kind of deal that he’s ultimately going to get from Well,
Nestor Aparicio 04:48
you talk about with a deal he’s ultimately going to get, and if this bottoms out for the next month, and it doesn’t go well, I look in other sports, there’s always somebody. To pay in baseball. It worked that way 30 years ago. Lately, basically, you know, the big contracts on arms and long years and pitchers still sitting around in February and March, looking for a deal, I don’t know, and bake into that the fact that the owners are crooked and halfway collude all the way along, and teams like the pirates, and they just pocket money, so they’re out of the realm of signing him. And I think most of us believed that the Orioles would be out of the realm of signing Corbin burns, no matter what that that now is become a large market risk, and not all the large market teams are ready to take the risk on even a Cy Young pitcher that’s pitched pretty well. I mean, still had a lot of he’s costing himself a lot of money. I think, I think I don’t know that in the old days, it didn’t work that way. But I think there will be less bidding on him because he hasn’t been as good lately.
Luke Jones 05:54
Well, I mean, it all depends how he finishes. I mean, it’s that clear, right? I mean, he had a 7.36 era in August. Wednesday night’s start was way worse than it looks, statistically. Because, yes, the defense failed him, too, and I’m not absolving the defense, but still, that inning where it got away from him, that was an error that was made with one out nobody on you can’t just completely turtle up there. I mean, if you give up a single there, you’re not expected to turtle up, so he has to be better. Look, you know, I mean, we talked about this two months ago, three months ago, I had my reservations even then, but, and it’s not even so much, just about the month of August. Go look at his k rate over the last four years, it’s steadily declined. That doesn’t mean he’s going to stink now. That doesn’t mean I think he’s ruined now, or that he’s going to be really bad next year, or anything like that. But if you you’re talking about the money that he’s going to be seeking and what teams might ultimately pay him, and more so than just the money per year, how many years you’re going to have to pay him. Well,
Nestor Aparicio 07:01
then what you’re expecting out of him when you get it, you get one month of a 70 RA and, well, it’s FREAK OUT mode, because he’s got to be your guy. And especially with with this team, with the injuries they’ve had, and, you know, the problems they’ve had with Rodriguez and F I mean, the injuries will be the story when it’s over. They’ll be absolved of all of this, if they stink next month, I’ve I’ve been convinced of that this last week, in the way fans are now seeing the team and seeing the reality of the team, seeing the youth of the team, seeing the lack of the depth of pitching, seeing that the defense was overrated, seeing that some of these players might be overrated in our own minds, or played in some level of Norfolk. I know lock and four likes to pick on them for that, so I don’t agree with him on almost anything, but I would say that he is the mouthiest person in the marketplace to say that they’re big on their prospects, and then their prospects come in hit to 11. And I mean, look, I saw that the kid pitching on Thursday night. It was nice story for his family in LA and, yeah, a couple big strikeouts of Tawny, the whole deal. But he shouldn’t be in the big leagues. You know what? I mean, he’s not, he’s not ready to have a four era in the big leagues and take the ball every fifth day. He might never be ready. He’s kind of soft tossing, in a way, so I don’t know, but I know he’s what they got right now, and they’re rolling them out there, and when you roll them out there and you don’t get hit the first five innings, you’re probably going to be losing four or five to nothing in the fourth in by the time you go to the bullpen. Well,
Luke Jones 08:30
let’s think about this, and this is where I will hold someone accountable. Mike Elias went out and traded Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers. And look, Kyle Stowers, who who’s begun to hit a little bit for Miami, but go look at what he did for his first month with the Marlins. Kyle Stowers might be a quad a player. I mean, it just might be that simple. Connor Norby, in contrast, since being recalled recently because they sent him back to the miners to have him work on playing third base, he’s hit and he’s performed, and we’ll see. I’m not at all ready to say that, though, that kind of Norby is going to be a stud player that the Orioles are going to rue the day that they gave him up. But let’s face it, this team had already DFA Cole Irvin, they had already sent Kade Povich down. They acquired Trevor Rogers. And look, I said that to you at the time of the trade, there was a long term play at work there, in terms of him having two more years of club control and trying to see if you can get him back to where he was in 2021 where he was second and Rookie of the Year in the NL and made the all star team. But that came with an understanding that in the short term, in the interim, for the rest of 2024 he was going to give them something that would be acceptable as a number five starter. I
Nestor Aparicio 09:43
looked at him as like he could be Dean Kramer the next two years or beat Tyler wells to be a guy that they felt like they might get 300 innings out of the next
Luke Jones 09:53
it’s not about the next two years. It was still a move that you’re trying to win a pennant race. Race. And this is one of those moves that just reeks of and it’s not an Orioles thing. This is a lot of executives and baseball op departments that think they’re really smart. We can fix them, right? We can fix them. And look, the Orioles have fixed guys over the last few years. We’ve talked about it. You know, Ryan O’Hearn and some of the guys in the bullpen that they’ve turned into credible Major League relievers, but they needed Trevor Rogers to at least give them acceptable work in the short term, that he could be your number five starter, especially considering, after they traded for him, Grayson Rodriguez goes down less than a week later, and Zach Eflin goes on the Iowa a couple weeks after that,
Nestor Aparicio 10:40
just a guy from the Marlins and threw him into the middle of the pennant race here. And it just didn’t
Luke Jones 10:44
work. So So that’s and again, we can’t judge the trade fully because of the what you just said. And look, I will accept the the hypothesis that, hey, we’ll work with working with them in Norfolk right now. We’ll work with them throughout the off season, in spring training, we’ll send them to our quote lab, and we’ll get him back pitching, maybe not what he was in in 2021 but closer to that which, hey, that could be the replacement for what John means hasn’t been for them the last couple years. Right? A lefty maybe gets, you know, stuff ticks up all that. But again, that came with an understanding when you made that trade that he still needed to help you immediately in some capacity, again, even if it was league average, number four, number five starter, which that would really help them right now. Instead, he’s in the minors. Cole Irvin’s back in the rotation. And to your point, and look, Kate Povich had a nice start against the Red Sox a couple weeks ago, but since then, we’ve seen it look a lot like it did his first time around. And I’m with you, I don’t think his stuff’s good enough unless his command is going to be on point. And it’s really difficult to ask a young guy to do that if he’s ever going to be able to do that. So
Nestor Aparicio 11:56
you can trick guys in Norfolk, but then you see Otani and these guys in the middle of the floor, and you’re like, Okay, that’s not gonna come three times through the order.
Luke Jones 12:03
I mean, we’re seeing it over and over and over and, you know, I don’t, I don’t have any commentary about their their guys at triple A coming up to the majors and struggling. I mean, triple A prospects are what they are. And we see this around baseball, that guys can be awesome at triple A, and then they struggle and and then they figure it out. I mean, Colton cows has been a much better player than he was a year ago. And Jackson holiday, while he’s still scuffling and up and down, which you would kind of expect from a 20 year old, has been much better than he was whispers become an all star, you know, watchman and Henderson, exactly, exactly. So. So you’re going to deal with some of that. But again, it was, it’s quite damning of Mike Elias and what he did at the trade deadline, look, couldn’t have foreseen Eflin with the shoulder, I still think. And the overall vibe with that is still that he’s going to be okay, that this was way more precautionary than some fatal flaw, or, you know, structural issue with his shoulder. Time will tell, as it looks like he could again, could pitch this weekend in Colorado, or certainly shortly thereafter. But so that move I liked, you know, I was a big fan of that trade. The Dominguez trade has been fine, especially considering Austin Hayes hasn’t done a whole lot for the Phillies. Fact he was on the injured list. You know, imagine that Austin Hayes hurt. I mean, we’ve seen that so but, but when you look at the Rogers trade, especially, and you know, Soto obviously hasn’t been good, we’ll see if he’s better in September, he’s been better of late. But, you know, you look at that Trevor Rogers trade, and the two guys that you gave up, and for me, and I wrote about this as you as you went away and, you know, and you and I have reconvened since then, but it very much was a case of the opportunity cost, you know, was there another trade out there that they could have made and use Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers, for example, to go get another bullpen arm that could help you? Was that? Was there another starter that maybe didn’t have two years of club control, but might have helped you more right now, which they certainly need, right? I mean, you’re trying to win this year too. I mean, it’s not all about the future. It’s not just about the future. So opportunity cost wise, I mean, that trade looks like a colossal loser, and there’s really no arguing against that right now. So again, when I see Kate Povich pitch, when I see Cole Irvin pitch right now and again, a big part of that is, yeah, Grayson Rodriguez went down right after the trade deadline, and they’re waiting for efflin, and he’s been out 15 days. You’re seeing trades that failed four weeks ago, sure, but that’s the thing, the fact that Trevor Rogers is still in the miners, and they’ve lost two pitchers since they acquired him due to injury. I mean, boy, that looks terrible for Mike Elias, and there’s really no defending it. So
Nestor Aparicio 14:48
you know again, well, they know if they brought him up, he gets shellac especially out in Colorado. That’s right.
Luke Jones 14:53
And that was what was so obvious right before he was sent down. Remember, Cole Irvin was back in the mix, and. Then the fact that Cole Irvin’s stuff and just his performance, and that’s a really low bar, let’s be clear, looked better than Trevor Rogers said a lot. So again, it’s great to say we’ll fix someone, but we’ll fix someone isn’t what you want in late July when you’re trying to win a pennant, right? I mean, that’s not, that’s not the goal with that trade, at least in terms of trying to win right now, next year, year after that, hopefully it does work out, and hopefully he does look better, because, my goodness, the peripherals you go on his Statcast page and look at where he ranks percentile wise, Nestor, it’s ugly. I mean, it’s really ugly. This is a guy who is not performing well, and none of the measurables and peripheral stats suggest that he should be pitching well either. So there’s not a whole lot to like, other than his ground ball rate. That’s about the only thing that looked decent. So lot of work to do on Trevor Rogers, but in the meantime, as we’re talking about the team right now, as it’s presently constructed, yeah, kadepovich and Cole Irvin and I mean, Corbin burns, they need Corbin burns to be Corbin burns again. So many of these issues would be here, but if Corbin burns looked like himself in August, you’d have a couple more wins. You know that that’d be the the difference there, and maybe being in first place rather than trailing the Yankees, and they need Adley rutschman to I’d say, look like Adley rutschman. But how about look like a league average starting catcher at the plate, which he hasn’t even been that the last two two months. So, you know, they need gunner Henderson to start coming through in big moments. You know, his his numbers with runners in scoring position have not been very good, you know, for someone who’s so talented and so good overall, so Suarez Kramer
Nestor Aparicio 16:45
Irvin this weekend against an awful team on the road,
Luke Jones 16:50
yeah, well, it’s TBA on Sunday. If you look at the Orioles official game notes, it’s TBA on Sunday. It could be a E is eligible to pitch Sunday? Will it be him? You know, we’ll see. I mean, they might just keep Cole Irvin, in turn, give ethlin a couple more days, which I’m all for, that if you feel that that’s beneficial. So you certainly don’t want to rush him back with the shoulder. But winnable series and and that’s the saving grace. You asked that at the beginning of our conversation, Corbin
Nestor Aparicio 17:18
burns his next star is against the worst team on the planet,
Luke Jones 17:22
sure, right? I mean, you you look at the Orioles their their next three weeks, this is quite an opportunity for them. They have one of the easiest schedules in baseball over you know, when you look at September
Nestor Aparicio 17:32
week, you could play 800 ball in two weeks, if you were good, if they in there, if they had their pitchers, if guys were hitting the ball on time, if they were catching it on time. If this were May, we’d look at this and say they could go 13 and two in this stretch. You know what I mean? We’d look at it and say they can really they can make some ground here. They can. They can get some ground back, if they can play well, if they can pitch well right now, even if they can just hit the hell out of the ball, they’re not really capable of pitching great right now. For launch, we went through that they’re not good enough to pitch great defensively. Yeah, that’s a gunner. Henderson is a poor defensive player right now. He’s a guy on stratomatic. I wouldn’t draft, um, that, but that. But all that being said, that we haven’t talked about the defense at all, really, about kicking the ball around, and how that’s a different profile for this team than the profile we knew of the first two years of the rutchman experiment. They become a different team this summer. Well, we’ve talked,
Luke Jones 18:29
I mean, we talked about it, and it was really a month ago where the problem was much more daily, you know, much more of a problem. I thought that they and I think overall, in August, they tightened it up some. It hasn’t been as problematic, but it still rears its ugly head, there’s no doubt about it, and it did in this Dodger series big time. So
Nestor Aparicio 18:50
the baseball tagging a guy at first base can’t run a hold a rundown. I mean, like Dodgers were dying to run themselves out of an inning, and it was, it was bad news bears. Dude was literally, yeah, I’m
Luke Jones 19:05
not, I’m not disagreeing. I’m just saying, in general, it felt like the defense had been better over the last month compared to the previous month where it was but they still had their performances where you look at it and you scratch right and look, let’s be clear. Well, they got a kid. You shouldn’t be pitching starting but that’s not feel but you don’t think about that as Fielding. You know, if
Nestor Aparicio 19:25
we’re talking about, no, I’m saying I came back from vacation. They’re losing five to nothing. They’re getting no hit, and they’re kicking the ball around like the bad news bears on Thursday night. So that’s I didn’t see Tuesday and Wednesday. I was here for the weekend. But like, you know, I’m following along, and I’m like, this isn’t getting any better. I mean, it was um, and Dodger Stadium felt big to me for some of them. It felt like, you know, it felt like first time there for some of the young guys, first of eight years we played out there. But it felt like big crowd, big this, big payroll, big everything, not and not. Something where, if you’re going to make mistakes, you’re going to come back from that, you know. And look, cows are in a free run. Home run. Got it back in the game. So that one hit, that’s where they are, home run. If they hit a home run, we get back in this five nothing. Let’s hit an Earl Weaver. That’s not good baseball. I just as I’ve seen it the last few months. It’s not good baseball,
Luke Jones 20:19
no. And look that that’s and that’s not what they were the first few months of the season. I mean, as much as people talk about them hitting home runs, they hit a lot of doubles. It’s not like they were last in the league, and batting average, you know, they didn’t have a Dave Kingman profile, is what I’m saying, but over the last two months, and more specifically, and look, if you look at the offense in July, in July, the offense wasn’t as bad as fans made it out to be. As I’ve continued to say to you, and I will continue, will continue to say this, look around major league baseball, offense collectively around the league is not great, but more specifically, in the month of August, yeah, and, and the last couple weeks, it’s really been magnified that. I mean, just look how many games where they’ve had four or fewer hits. I mean, you can’t win games like that unless you’re pitching his lights out. And you know, one thing I will say, and again, you didn’t see it Tuesday night. They did play their bullpen. Did a heck of a job for them. Their bullpen was actually go look at it. Statistically, the bullpen was good over the course of this series, until given up a run late on Thursday. So it’s gonna
Nestor Aparicio 21:20
have to be when you’re sending Suarez and Kramer and and Irvin, you know, like right away, if I say those three guys right off the bat, you’re gonna use 14 innings of bullpen this weekend. Don’t put Suarez
Luke Jones 21:32
with those guys. He’s been better. I mean, he’s been What for is their best starting pitcher right now. But your point is, is, and I think you’re alluding to the fact that, yeah, even if Albert Suarez pitches, well, he’s generally not going to go seven innings inning, right, right? I
Nestor Aparicio 21:49
mean, he’s going to get things out of him, you know. Well, you’ll get, you’ll get more than four, but no four innings a bullpen, I’m talking, oh, sure, sure, yeah. I
Luke Jones 21:56
mean, he’ll give you six, you know, on his best night. I mean, he’s generally not going to, you know, he’s not going to go eight for you, like you’d like to think Corbin burns could do, but Well, Corbin Burns has been what he’s been. So look these issues. I don’t think they’re going away. Obviously the pitching needs to get healthy. They do have guys that are going to come back. We’ll see what they look like. I do expect Jordan westburg back later this month, we’ll see what he looks like. So they’re still upside on that front. Mateo, he’s done, yeah, he actually had a UCL surgery on his non, you know, non throwing arm. So he’s out for the year. Well, that really
Nestor Aparicio 22:34
affects them in October, to me, in a one run game with with a runner, you know what I mean, like, I’m, I’m I’m was much more bullish on that sort of matchup advantage that they could have taken, and the fact that he can play positions, he can move around a little bit. He wouldn’t hurt you in the eighth inning of game five of the ALCS, you know what I mean, like, and they’re losing a lot of weapons, dude, just in general sense, like when this is over with, and they don’t win the World Series. The excuses are built in. They are, as I see it. I mean,
Luke Jones 23:05
look, some of it is, yeah. I mean, for anyone who looks at their starting pitching right now, I mean, again, at some point in time, you just run out of guys. Now I’ll hold Michael. I just held Mike Elias accountable in terms of talking about Trevor Rogers not being good enough. I mean not even close. I mean a total loser of a trade as it pertains to 2024 you know, we’ll see about the next couple years. But yeah, I mean the pitching injuries that’s not easy to overcome. And let’s be clear, we’ve seen this. And even as you know, plenty of hand wringing in this conversation about the state of the Orioles, they went three and four against the Astros and the Dodgers going into that week long stretch. I’m not saying you would have taken it, but I’m not sure anyone was really expecting better than what maybe four and three over that stretch. I think that would have been the considering where the Astros how they were playing at the time of that series. And the Orioles obviously rebounded, and at least got a split after that first game looking so ugly and at Dodger Stadium. Look, if you had asked me, before going into the Dodger series, I’m expecting them to lose two out of three. You’re hoping not to get swept. So three and four against those two teams, you know, the the best team in the NL as things currently stand, and a team that’s been to the World Series, won a World Series recently. All that, well, that’s
Nestor Aparicio 24:30
your expectations for the Dodgers. What are your expectations for the for the White Sox?
Luke Jones 24:34
Well, you know what? I mean, sure. But the point I’m trying to make is, as much as we’re complaining about the state of things right now, and there’s not a whole lot to be complimentary about, quite frankly, other than Anthony Santander’s massive grand slam against the Astros and Jackson holidays, huge three run double the following day. And, well, Santander’s
Nestor Aparicio 24:54
thing was like a spark, but it didn’t create a fire. Yeah? Like everybody thought that night, oh, this is where. Better but, but the ball then, then the pitching comes back the next day and the defense comes back the next day.
Luke Jones 25:05
Don’t absolve the hitting. The hitting stuff, the hitting is stunk. I mean, the hitting the last couple weeks, I’ve heard people say the hitting is stunk for two months. That’s not true. I mean, there’s no statistical support for that assessment. Again, when you remember what offense looks like collectively the last few weeks? It stunk. I mean, you know, this is the guy who tries to back things up with numbers. It’s, it’s been lousy the last couple weeks. You know, look at the games where they’ve struggled to get three or four hits. So they’ve got to pick it up in that way. And again, it starts with your stars. It has to I Jackson holidays. 20 years old. He’s going to be up and down, right? You have other guys. I mean, Aloy Jimenez, the White Sox, were giddy to get rid of him, and he had a nice start his first 10 games with the Orioles. Go look at what it’s been since then. You know, it hasn’t been much. I mean, it’s kind of a, you know, that batting average looks okay, but not hitting for any power whatsoever. And he’s your DH. You know, you need more than that. Mount castles on the IL O’Hearn finally showed a little bit of power in the Dodgers series, but we know that it had been a long time for him with going up without hitting a home run. But Adley Rotman, Gunner Henderson, Corbin burns. I mean, these are your all stars. Even Santander, who’s hit the home runs. Go look at what his batting average is in the month of August. Nestor, even Santander, it’s been the home runs, but little of anything else at all. Now, I’ll take the home runs, because they’ve come in some big spots. But you need your stars to be stars. If the stars are being stars right now, this team would be in a better position than they’re in right now. And let’s be clear, they’re still going to make the playoffs. Okay, what do you mean? Okay? You don’t think they’re going to make the playoffs. I
Nestor Aparicio 26:54
think they’re really fortunate to have these three weeks where they can make a and they might be able to play eight and three ball the next 10 days and get themselves back to some level of not alarming. It would be alarming if they play sub 500 ball the next two weeks. It would be alarming,
Luke Jones 27:14
okay, but, but we’ve, we’ve set they’ve been a 500 team the last two months. And what I mean, but what I mean by this is, as bad as it’s looked, they still have ESPN standings right now, 99% to make the postseason baseball reference, very similar. Fangrass, very similar. They’re making the playoffs. My question is whether there’s going to be reason for optimism going into the month of October, or is it going to be your the second, first or second wild card, and you’re hoping that Corbin burns, wakes up on the right side of the bed and looks like Corbin. So you know, my my point with that. You’re hoping Rodriguez is fresh there too. There’s
Nestor Aparicio 27:54
no question about you’ll feel differently in October, if we have, of course, if they get healthier in the next 30 days, we will have a different feeling about them in October, in the same way, if the Ravens start the season one and three, sure, we’d be like, Oh my god. Well, they, you know, lost by field goal to the chiefs, and they turned the ball over against the bills and, you know, and Dallas beat him at home. I mean, like that can happen too, you know. But losing to the White Sox, losing to the rock if you’re not making hay. Now, even with no offense to Cole Irvin or Kade Povich, whoever’s going to start right, but the this a team that’s going to win 45 baseball games, you better not lose one of them. This is especially now you got to win them all. You better be beating these bad teams if you want to play the last week of September without having to be nervous, sure, and that,
Luke Jones 28:45
and that’s, that’s, I guess, the point I was making is, I still don’t have any anxiety that they won’t make the playoffs,
Nestor Aparicio 28:55
but sneaking
Luke Jones 28:56
in, limping in, backing in, however You want to categorize it, none of that inspires confidence that you’re going to make a run. But I guess the point I’m making with all of these issues that they’ve had and the sound this is kind of a backhanded compliment, they haven’t really had a long losing streak since, what June and early July, when they had what they’re two different, five game losing streaks. They’ve just been win two, lose two, win one, lose one, win two, lose three, right? You know, it’s kind of been that they’ve just been, they’re a 500 team, like, let’s call it what it is. They’ve been a 500 team since late June. You know,
Nestor Aparicio 29:37
starting rotation would reflect that, yeah,
Luke Jones 29:40
everything, everything, everything, I’m tired of giving the offense a pass and just assuming it’s going to be better, because, again, Adley rutschman, who’s supposed to be, you know, he’s the guy that turned it around overnight, right? I mean, we we praise this guy, that face of the franchise, won one back in 2019 Mean, the guy that they didn’t take, Bobby Witt, it’s not going to be the MVP because Aaron judge is going to be the MVP. But he’s been right there. He’s been incredible. The Royals are one of the more interesting teams as we’re getting into the month of September, and they’re coming You better not you better. Hope you don’t draw them in in October. I mean, we’ll see again, how to we keep saying that about teams. And look, you’re not alone in that, and I don’t the Royals have
Nestor Aparicio 30:24
been a very good team over the last month, month and a half, since the all star break, they’ve been a great they played more like the Orioles were playing.
Luke Jones 30:30
But everyone’s been up and down though. I mean, every time we’re ready to anoint someone, I mean, it was Cleveland a month ago, and look how mediocre they’ve been since then. I mean, Houston looked like they were ready to go nuts, and then they kind of fall back to the pack again. I mean, I mean, the Yankees have the best record going in. The Orioles are right on their heels. I think Kansas City could, but they’re also, I mean, they’re a team that has less experience than the Orioles as it pertains to this. The Orioles have been through this at the very least. You know, get back. Check back with me in a month. I really have no idea you look at the last 10, Yankees, five and five. Orioles, four and six. Red Sox, four and six is whatever chances they have that are, you know, feels like they’re kind of fading. Cleveland, four and six. Kansas City, who had been good five and five. Minnesota, who I was ready to start talking about them 10 days ago, lost eight of their last 10. Houston, four and six. Seattle, five and five. I mean, who, who’s playing great baseball in the American League right now? I mean, and that, again, that kind of continues to be the Orioles saving grace. Someone is going to get hot, statistically speaking, someone is going to have to win games, right? I mean, that’s just statistically speaking, when you’re playing the dregs of the league, you hope it’s right, right? Exactly. I mean, I don’t need them to go 14 and two, but it better not be seven and nine, right? I mean, you know, it better not be eight and eight. I mean, and when I say that, okay, they’re stopped, they’re probably still in playoff position, but if that happens, you can kiss the division goodbye at that point. I’m guessing the Yankees might be four or five games up, you know, in mid September, if that would play out that way. So it’s it’s go time. You got to start picking it up. And again, I keep coming back to and I’m not the guy that typically does this, because it’s a team game. Starting pitcher can only pitch once every five days. At best, right? Best, your best player in your lineup still has to wait his turn. There are eight other guys who have to go through through the order. But, you know, especially with Adley rush. I mean, this is, this is a lot. I’m alarmed at this point. I think you can tell at this point this is not just a slump again for two for the better part of two months now, he’s been one of the worst 10 qualified hitters in the majors. Go look at it in terms of ops, weighted runs created, weighted on base, average, all the different metrics you want to look at. Batting Average has been terrible. He’s not hitting many long balls. The walks have been back at a really low level in the month of August, although he’s walked a couple more times here of late. But, I mean, let’s go time. You know, Gunner Henderson, at least, has still overall profiled as an above average hitter, even if it’s a far cry from being an MVP. But Hadley rutschman has barely been playable offensively over the last two months. That’s how bad he’s been. That’s how bad the numbers have been awful, horrendous in July and August. It hasn’t been that bad, but it’s still been bad. So you know what’s going on. I mean, if this guy’s hurt, if there’s a health issue that’s causing him to perform this way, then he shouldn’t be playing. Because the defense hasn’t been that good for it for him either, other than blocking pitches, all of his defensive metrics are down, so I’m concerned about Adley rutschman. And look, I’m not saying in terms of his long term outlook, even though, certainly when you look at the defensive metrics, for example, is that something that’s going to get better as he gets older. And that’s why I’ve always been lukewarm when extending him at least compared to gunner Henderson, but they need a way better version of Adley rutschman than what they’ve been getting for the last two months. I mean, this is, this is ridiculous at this point, and and I say that not because I’m not recognizing how difficult it is to play the game. I fully recognize that. I say that because we’ve seen this guy play at such a high level from the moment, you know, the from the first month he was in the majors on, he’s been such a plus, plus catcher in terms of offense and everything he does. So for him to struggle to this degree for two months now, I mean, I’m I’m scratching my head over it. That’s how bad it’s been. This isn’t just a slump. This is he’s been one of the worst players in worst hitters in baseball over the last two months, talking about guys that are qualified regulars, right? Not talking about bench players and utility infielders and so forth. So they need him to start looking like himself again. And yeah, you need gunner Henderson to start looking like that MVP that he was in the. First half of the season, and absolutely forget about his free agency. Forget about that they need Corbin burns to start pitching like Corbin burns again. If they don’t get those things, all the other things we talk about probably aren’t going to matter very much in terms of where they’re going to be in October and well, it’s not
Nestor Aparicio 35:20
going to be Cedric Mullins or ureas, uh, slugging them, you know, through a series to me, and you
Luke Jones 35:26
need other guys to do it, but in the big picture sense, in terms of where they’re going to be a month from now, and when we’re talking about, okay, whatever their playoff matchup is, and their path, all of those, any of those paths have to include Corbin burns looking like Corbin burns and Adley rutschman playing like Adley rutschman and gunner Henderson looking like gunner Henderson, to your point, yeah, of course, everyone knows you need more contributions than that. I’m not not suggesting that, but it’s a non starter, if your stars assuming they’re on the field and healthy, which Kyle Bradish isn’t coming back and, you know John means isn’t coming back, and Felix Batista isn’t coming back. So we know all that, you know that, that you can’t change that right now. But these guys that are healthy and on your active roster, that have been all stars and been star players have to start playing like it. So they need it. They need rutman to step up big time. They need Corbin burns to put August behind him. Now they need him to do that yesterday. I mean, that’s how bad it’s been for him in August. And yeah, they need gunner Henderson to really step it up. You know, again, his struggles haven’t been quite as magnified, but he’s still a far cry from where he had been the first three months of the season. So I think you could tell I’m working on this at Baltimore positive.com if the Orioles are going to snap out of this malaise of mediocrity that they’ve been in the last couple months. Boy, they need their stars to start playing like stars, and then everything else we’ll talk about, right? Everything else that our concerns are still going to be there. But, I mean, I just this rotation as it as it’s presently constructed, even if you bring efflin back, even if you bring Grayson Rodriguez back, you know, you still wonder about the depth. But if Corbin burns, isn’t Corbin burns, then I don’t even know what to say, right? So, I mean, that’s how, how head scratching it’s been. And you know, we didn’t even talk about, we didn’t talk about the specifics. I mean, looked like he tweaked his mechanics some even. I mean, okay, but at the same time, I’m kind of alarmed that what he looks like now compared to what he looked like through the first four months of the season. I mean, I mean, July wasn’t as great as the first three months, but he was still really good. But I mean, August, what is that? You know? What was that from Corbin burns? So their stars have to be stars. It’s, that’s, I can’t keep saying it any you know, any different way. Well, there
Nestor Aparicio 37:50
is no calories. If the Calvary is Kate Povich and and Cole Irvin, you know, you can’t expect that to to hold it. Luke’s gonna be here, uh, monitoring all Labor Day weekend. We’re going to be monitoring early football, like, really weird, with a Thursday start to the season and labor day next week. So it’s going to feel a little choppy. It’s still not a home game. Everybody making their plans for Thursday night. Where’s a lot of baseball ahead? Luke can be found at Baltimore. Luke, I am back out on the grid. Lots cool stuff at Baltimore. Positive. We’re starting the oyster tour this week. It has an R in the month. We’re going to be doing crab cakes all month long as well. And, um, hopefully better conversation about the baseball team performing better, especially against these dregs that we have coming up the next week. I can be found Nestor aparicio.com uh, we will have the Maryland crab cake tour and the Gold Rush sevens doublers as well as Raven scratch offs to give away our friends at Liberty. Pure Solutions has put us out on the oyster tour, because they keep your water clean, and the oysters keep the bay water clean. So we’re going to educate folks all month long on that and see how I tolerate oysters. I’m Nestor. He’s Luke. He tolerates me. We’re W, N, S T A in 1570 Towson, Baltimore, tolerating mediocre baseball here of late, hoping it gets better. Stay with us. You.
