In the aftermath of a trading deadline that saw Mike Elias move several parts of the roster in deals, Luke Jones and Nestor evaluate all of the still-moving parts of the Orioles bullpen and roles as AL East games on road beckon in Toronto and Tampa.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
week, orioles, team, mayo, play, holiday, pitching, talking, baseball, good, games, october, september, struggle, point, run, bullpen, jimenez, ninth inning, year
SPEAKERS
Nestor J. Aparicio, Luke Jones
Nestor J. Aparicio 00:02
Welcome home. We are W, N, S, T, A, M, 1570 Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore, positive. We are positively into a great week. One week closer. We’re inching closer to kick off with the ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs. I’ve been seeing it all over the Olympics. My wife is in Olympics. Not 15 hours a day of Olympics coverage has been plenty of Lamar and Patrick Mullins and plenty of Peyton Manning and Snoop and Mike Tirico and everything to think it’s already football season around here, but they’re playing everything but football. Meanwhile, the Orioles are playing baseball, and Luke Jones is a monitoring that in Toronto, as well as on the backfields and Owings Mills all week long, the I like saying the first place Orioles. I had a chance to say that for the past six, seven weeks. Boy, it’s, you know, they’ve run into the rocks here a little bit, playing 500 or less than 500 baseball for a period of time, the Yankees have been worse, and now the Orioles measure themselves against the Guardians over the weekend, the other really good team now they’re going to play the division and some of the teams they’ve made trades with in recent weeks as well, on the road, out of sight, out of mind. Ravens are going to play a meaningless game on Friday here this week, but an important week here to sort of establish all of these changes that you and I have outlined in the lineup and all the things that have gone on, but we’re also going to get to see where Toronto and Tampa are this week, not bound for the playoffs, right? I
Luke Jones 01:28
think this is a week where you want to see the Orioles take advantage of two teams that are clearly looking toward the future, two teams that sold off players at the trade deadline, and two teams that have been the weak links in the division. And I know Tampa Bay has played okay baseball over the last week to 10 days. I mean, there are a few games over 500 but you kind of look at their statistical profile with what was, what a 57 and 54 record, minus 43 run differential, they’ve been amazing in one run games. They’re not. And even more so now with having traded off the players that they’ve traded, I’m not sure how much you really look at that and say, Oh, they’re a major threat. Now you got to go play. They got to go to Toronto and play well. They’ve got to go down to the trop and play well, knowing what kind of energy level either place is going to have. And I don’t expect Toronto to have a particularly great atmosphere this week, either knowing where the Blue Jays are in last place. So this is very much an opportunity for them. And we’ve talked so much about the Orioles struggling against national league teams. They’re struggling against the Al Central or or what, what have you. You know, they’ve been pretty good against the their own division this year, right? And you know, we’ve seen them take care of business largely. So this is a week where you want to continue to do that, because the Yankees, like the Orioles, have been playing better of late, and certainly we saw over the weekend as both teams won Saturday and Sunday to stay in this first place tie. But there’s no let up here. So I think you always have to be mindful of playing a division opponent where think there’s even for teams that aren’t very good, Tampa and Toronto are still looking at the standings and saying, you know, how can we mess things up for the Orioles? How can we mess things up for the Red Sox and the Yankees? So you definitely have to go and play good baseball. And you know that that’s the challenge right now. I mean, you you’re going to be on the road for another week or so. This is, you know, one of the really long road trips of the season, and you’ve got to take care of business. And you hope the way that they were able to recover against Cleveland bodes well for going to Toronto and going to down to St Petersburg and taking care of business. Because, hey, like we said in a previous segment, we’re under 50 games to go now. I mean, it’s not full sprint just yet. You know, we still have close to two months to go, but you can’t afford to have any more periods like they had through most of the month of July, if we’re being honest. So I think from that standpoint, opportunity for this team to finish the road trip on a high note, get back home, get into the the meat of the August schedule. But you know, these are two teams that have nothing to play for right now, other than to hurt you. So you’ve got to be ready to play when you show up on Tuesday night.
Nestor J. Aparicio 04:22
I guess, for these divisional games and where they are. And we’ve talked so much about the lineup and so much about the young players, let’s talk a little bit about mayo on holiday, just in a general sense that they’re here to stay. Now, you know, obviously, with the Westbrook thing, I don’t know what would have them send Mayo out. It hasn’t been a great start, at least in the beginning part of this holiday has figured it out, certainly with holiday bat looks a lot faster, and whatever adjustments you throw at a 20 year old who’s been a phenom since he held a wiffleball bat, that you the feeling amongst the. Um, the elite people in the organization is look at him and say he’s adjusted to everything else that he’s like a gunner Henderson. I mean, it’s an incredible embarrassment of riches. As we look at the lineup, we look at Mayo, we look at Holiday and say weather rookies that we don’t expect much out of them. In the way, we probably didn’t expect much out of Jordan, Westport Berg in the fall, right? We just expected him to be hit 250 hit 260 maybe hit 1215, bombs. Hang around, be a good defensive player, be a major leaguer. Look like a major league player, not look like an all star. Um, but I think the jury’s out on holiday and mayo, because I think we both do look at them a little differently, well, but, but, but even that being said, if Jackson holiday gives you major league average offense at age 20 in the midst of a pennant race, and
Luke Jones 05:49
does that the rest of the way. I think we need to look at that and you’re grading on a curve, and you say that’s awesome, not just because of how he looked in April, but just knowing what a 20 year old, a 20 year old is typically
Nestor J. Aparicio 06:03
where Machado was in 12, when they brought him up right, like, that’s the thing.
Luke Jones 06:07
And Manny Machado wasn’t Manny Machado of what he would become, but he was a solid contributor with the bat. You know, had his moments. I mean, I remember vividly his two home run game, which was, like, the for, you know, a couple days after he was called up and all that.
Nestor J. Aparicio 06:23
So he made a great defensive play early on, and we’re like, wow, you know,
Luke Jones 06:27
I mean, the defense. I mean, remember, Machado was here for his defense. They didn’t call him up because, Oh, wow. This kid’s raking at double a go, look at what his numbers were at Bowie that year before they called him up. It wasn’t anything special. It was we have a need a defense, because we’re sick of seeing Mark Reynolds and Wilson better be playing third base, or try to play third base is probably the the better way to describe it. And we think the kid can come up and hold his own. So their perception
Nestor J. Aparicio 06:53
is, Mayo is not going to be good at third base.
Luke Jones 06:55
Well, a couple things we need to understand. First of all, Jordan Westbrook got hurt, right? I mean, they weren’t planning on making Kobe Mayo their everyday third baseman right now, but you your your hand is forced, and he has more upside than Ramon Arias, who is limited offensively and not as good defensively as he was a couple years ago. Even now, is he better than Kobe Mayo at third base right now? Sure, I’ll, I’ll give you that. But where’s the upside? Right? There’s not really an upside play there. Now, if Mayo botches ground ball after ground ball or something like that over the next week to 10 days, then we can revisit this. But I think they’re clearly looking at a young player who, by the way, is only 22 himself. You know he He’s older than Jackson holiday, but he’s still a very young player as well. This isn’t a 24 or 25 year old being called up where you say, okay, you know, he’s kind of the the average age of a prospect. No, he’s on the younger side as well. But you know, you look at both of these guys and you say, what can I reasonably expect from them that is a positive contribution for what this team is trying to accomplish in the big picture. And again, if they can be league average type hitters right now and play solid defense, and I know, you know, holiday dropped the pop up, you know, kind of lost it in the sun on Sunday, even though they ended up getting the force at second base, Mayo
Nestor J. Aparicio 08:16
got out in left field further than he should. Again. Yeah, right. I
Luke Jones 08:19
mean, and look, some of that is there. Bookshelf used to talk about this a lot, and more specifically, without fielders, but I think it applies even for infielders. You’ve got to remember, these guys are not used to playing in a major league ballpark where you have three decks and you have fans everywhere. You know, minor league ballparks are much smaller. There’s much more open space. You know, you don’t have fans in the in the backdrop of everywhere you’re looking. So that doesn’t mean that that they just get a free pass indefinitely, but I think there is a little bit of an adjustment period with that. But, you know, with these two guys, I mean, it’s we’ve already in the case of holiday now, Mayo, maybe not as much. But again, we’re talking about three games, right? I mean, three games is nothing for even evaluating a veteran player. You know, you can see a veteran player look terrible for three straight games, but in the case of holiday since his return, we’re already seeing why so many of the conclusions that people jumped to back in April. Yeah. I mean, this is a special talent. I mean, this is the kind of kid who already, since being recalled, has two home runs, has really looked much more comfortable with the plate, has handled a variety of pitches at the plate, you know, didn’t abandon the leg kick, but I think adjusted a little bit in terms of, I think his timing’s way better to kind of recognize pitches and adjust and do what he needs to do. You know, his strikeouts have been a couple of those came on bad calls, as we mentioned in a previous segment, a rough weekend for the blue over the course of the weekend,
Nestor J. Aparicio 09:53
but and the orange and black? Oh, sure, but, but I think,
Luke Jones 09:58
you know, I’m. Thrilled with what I’m seeing from from Jackson holiday since being recalled. He’s showing you now why the Orioles and why all of baseball and the baseball Americas and the MLB pipelines of the world were talking about how special this kid is at age 20, and you’re starting to see that. And let’s be clear, doesn’t mean he’s going to hit 350, the rest of the way. Doesn’t mean he’s not going to have his times where he’s going to struggle still, as any player does, but you’re seeing a much more comfortable version of Jackson holiday, and that’s where I think we need to be mindful. And looking at Kobe mayo and say, Yeah, I get it. Mayo struck out three times on Sunday and breaking balls and, you know, throwing them a lot of breaking stuff away, you know, he’s got to adjust. And they’re going to, you know, they’re not just going to give them fastballs down the pike, you know. And know if
Nestor J. Aparicio 10:45
he’s getting a preferred if he’s getting the Greg Maddux strike zone,
Luke Jones 10:48
uh, well, and that doesn’t help either, sure, yeah, that, yeah, that doesn’t help either, especially once you got two strikes and trying to cover the plate, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, I mean, so you have some of that, and, you know, holidays dealt with a little bit of that, even with swinging the bat well here. But you know, I mean, this is just this part of becoming a major leaguer, and you’ve got to deal with the ebbs and flows. I think, if nothing else, what April provided for Jackson holiday, I think, will be very valuable, in the sense of that was probably the first time he’s really failed on a baseball field. Now, if it’s a 10 game failure when you’re what, 20 years. And at that point he was 20 years and four months, or something like that. I mean, still a long ways away from his 21st birthday at that point in time, then, Boy, you’ve got something. But I think that was a good experience for him to have to have some failure. Maybe not. Maybe no one was predicting him to be sent back down, but it’s a All right, you need to adjust. And then he got injured. Yeah, he had the, you know, the sore elbow, and so, you know, this year hasn’t gone to plan for him by any stretch of the imagination. But that’s 21 on December 4, right? By the way, we’re still months, we’re still months away from him. Look his birthday up, so I sent him a card, yeah, yeah, exactly. But, I mean, we’re talking about someone who can’t legally drink a beer yet, and he’s playing major league baseball, and he did it at a high level over the course of the weekend, and Cleveland gets the best team in baseball record wise, so he’s fine. And what I mean by that is, just let him play mayo. We’re going to see, right? I mean, maybe he has dramatic enough struggles where they end up sending them back. Because, you know, it happened to Colton cowser last year. It happened to holiday earlier this year, we saw gunner Henderson, really, you know, kind of flounder the first six weeks of last season, right? Where, really, it was only his ability to draw walks. And
Nestor J. Aparicio 12:39
this is a tough six weeks if Westbrook’s out, and you’re going to play may with third base, and we’re seeing ureas play a week and a half from now, because it didn’t work that that would, that would be disappointing, especially with Westbrook probably not coming back during the regular season, at least. Well, I
Luke Jones 12:54
mean, we don’t know. I he’s not going to come back till the end of the regular season, the way it’s looking, I think probably a best case scenario. And, you know, they haven’t, they’ve been vague about the timeline, but, you know, you kind of look at that injury, you kind of think of something like that. Even on the better side of things, it’s a four to six week kind of thing you’re
Nestor J. Aparicio 13:11
doing, grip in the back, gripping the ball, all of it. It’s terrible. Yeah, yeah.
Luke Jones 13:15
I mean, it’s, you know, it’s tough. I mean, it’s, it’s good that it’s the hand, you know, kind of below the pinky is where it was, rather than in the wrist and something like that. So it’s better there, but yeah, it’s not ideal. And even when he comes back, is he going to look like Jordan westburg right away? So it’s unfortunate, but it’s not losing your franchise quarterback in the NFL or your top scorer in the NBA, where everyone still has to wait their turn. You know, as great as a player is, he’s one of nine that goes to the plate every night. So, you know, you need other guys to step up, and that’s where holiday coming up and looking like he’s got a chance to do some damage for them and be a plus contributor for them is great. That helps right there, even if it’s not a one for one trade off there in terms of position and all that. But you know, we’ll see what. We’ll see what happens with mayo. I mean, a week from now, we might be talking about Kobe Mayo making, you know, late push for rookie of the month, or something like that. I mean, who knows. But, you know, you have these guys who have such upside. And the thing that I do like about them calling up Mayo now, even if their hand was forced, is understanding, yeah, he’s probably going to scuffle a little bit now, because we’ve seen everyone from rushman on down struggle when they’ve been called up to the major leagues. But if you can get that out of the way over the next three to four weeks, and when I say struggle, I don’t mean struggle like Jackson holiday struggled in April, where it was so so much swing and miss, so many strikeouts, so so much. A look of someone who was overwhelmed, right? Let’s say it’s more of the okay. You know, he might be hitting 190 but you know, he’s putting some, you know, making some hard contact, and for the most part, he looks okay at third base. You know, I can live with that for a few weeks, with the idea in mind that that’s going to make him better put. Potentially for September and October. And if he’s truly the kind of upside offensive player that I think they believe he’s going to be, then you could potentially be a real contributor and a real force for them come September and October, but you got to take your licks some, right? I mean, you’ve got to acclimate. And the reality is, yeah, you could put Ramona Reus in there, but what are you really getting there? I think we know what Ramon Arias is at this point in his career, and I think it’s a guy who might play for a second division team, but he’s a bench player. You know? He’s a reserve he’s more of a utility type at this point in time. So I think they want to give Mayo as many opportunities here as possible to get his feet wet and see what it looks like again. If he’s hitting a buck, you know, a buck 22 weeks from now, and he’s striking out in half his plate appearances, then it’s probably a decent chance he ends up getting sent down. But I think you want to really see what this looks like, and give him every opportunity because of what you just said. You don’t know if Jordan Westbrook’s going to come back. So if, if he’s not, if he has a setback, or if they find out the fractures worse than they thought, and he’s done, then the more that you’ve more opportunities you’ve given Kobe mayo, the increased likelihood, or probability there is that come mid September and into October, he might be able to be more productive for you. So it is such a challenge. We talked about this a lot in our previous segment, where you have so much roster churn that we’ve seen here with so many new pieces and guys called up and guys traded, and veteran players coming in, including veteran players who were playing for really bad teams, like Aloy Jimenez, who had a bad year in Chicago, but my gosh, the White Sox have lost 20 games in a row. I mean, can you imagine? Is anyone going to flourish in that environment? You know? So it really is a case of adding these new pieces, whether we’re talking about the rookies or these veterans that have come in from from other teams, and seeing what’s going to work out. And that’s where it is a bit of a challenge for Brandon Hyde to, kind of, you know, and this front office to want to win games every night, and that’s paramount. But yes, you are doing some evaluating right now as well, and that’s, you know, that’s a tricky balance, you know, that’s a tricky balance to try to strike there, but they’ve lost 20 games in a row, right? Saying it’s crazy, right? I mean, I mean, we recall it’s easy because we try to forget. But the 2021 Orioles lost 19 in a row in August, right? So, I mean, they’ve been worse than that, and we saw what that looked like three years ago. So in the case of Jimenez, I mean, it’s you bring a veteran player in who, five years ago, looked like he was going to be a serious, all star kind of slugger, and he’s got a specialized role now, and the Orioles have not taken on much financial risk, and you just say what’s going to look like, you know, if he stinks and doesn’t swing. And what he did over the weekend is all he does as an Oriole, then he might not be on the team three or four weeks from now, or he’s this generation of Orioles, to
Nestor J. Aparicio 18:07
me, like something that Brandon Hyde likes him and wanted him on the team. It sounds like, I mean, I don’t
Luke Jones 18:14
think Brandon Hyde was the one who, you know, he wasn’t the driving force, but I do think what they said is, okay, we need some more right handed pop and a lawyer. Menace is someone who’s having a bad year. White Sox are desperate to get rid of them. It’s not going to cost us anything of consequence whatsoever, if we’re willing to take on a little money, but they’re going to pay some of his salary as well. Let’s take a flyer on
Nestor J. Aparicio 18:35
do we want him on the team? Do we want him on the team? It was the question and then, and
Luke Jones 18:39
then at that point they asked, Hey, Brandon, you know what you think about Jimenez and when he was in the cub system, and you know what you think of him? Did you get along? Did you have any meaningful experiences with him? All that, like, tell us about it. And look, that was, that was a long time ago. So whatever that is, six years. I mean, that’s an eternity when you’re talking about trying to figure out who a player is, but personality wise, and what he does best, and what might get him to tick, you know, maybe there is a little bit of extra insight there, but a lot of this is just they took a flyer. I mean, this is, again, this is not a high risk. They did not give up a prospect for him. You know, they basically said, We’ll take them off your hands if spend a little money and cover, help cover a free player, literally, exactly. And if he, if what he did over the weekend is all he does as an Oriole, then, hey, he helped to win, win some games on Saturday and Sunday, right? I mean, so, you know, you kind of look at it through that lens, and you know, that’s really the case with any of these veterans they brought in. I mean, Sir Anthony Dominguez, we’ve seen pitching some high leverage. Gregory Soto had a brutal debut, but I think they want to see what he can do. I mean, a hard throwing left hander, and certainly has swing and miss, and at one point in time, was an all star closer, albeit for the Detroit Tigers, a team that was bad at the time, a. But you know, these are guys that have a little bit of experience, you know, with high leverage and even closing games, and I said to you that they need some other options, if Kimbrel is going to not figure it out, or if Kimbrel is going to get himself straightened out and then go into another Tailspin the last week of September. So it’s not ideal look. I’d love to have a healthy Felix Batista anchoring the bullpen, but they don’t,
Nestor J. Aparicio 20:22
yeah, there’s not going to be a closer emerge here in the next eight weeks, right? Mean, I mean, Kimbrel is going to be the guy in the ninth inning in October. They’re going to give the ball to I’m pretty convinced of that.
Luke Jones 20:32
How’s he pitching? Very because we But, and this is where I’ll give them some credit, they’ve been and they did this back in May even, I agree with you, if Craig Kimbrel looks right and he gets on a roll like he was in for the second half of May through the month of June, then yeah, he’s their ninth inning guy. I’m not suggesting that, but if he’s going to waiver, and if he’s going to labor and not look like Craig Kimbrel at his best, and start to struggle, and if he blows a game or two, then I’m looking at other options. That doesn’t mean he’s banished to the sixth inning, but I’m going to look at the matchups and say, Hey, this might be a spot for Sir Anthony Dominguez to come in and pitch the ninth inning, because it’s, you know, three righties up. And you know, he’s got some numbers against these guys. And you know, this guy doesn’t hit the slider very well. So, you know, you kind of just look at it through that lens. I mean, you need other options. So yes, I’m with you in the sense of, if Kimbrel writes himself, then yeah, he’s the closer. But I’ll continue to say, I think any team that tries to treat their closer like he’s a shutdown closer and just unconditionally pitches him in the ninth inning every time there’s a save situation. I think you’re doing your team a disservice. If it’s Felix Batista, yes, then he’s pitching in the Save situation every time, right? He’s that good. Or, you know, you talk about, I mean, even Class A for Cleveland might not be the best example, because they’ve got three or four other arms that are really good, but pick whichever great, truly great closer that you like in today’s game. You know, Craig Kimbrel is not that guy anymore. He is a closer, but he’s not an elite shutdown closer, no questions asked. So if you don’t have that guy, then I think a manager, I think a team should, yeah, they’re doing themselves a favor by opening it up a little bit more and not being married to the same guy for the ninth inning under, you know, unquestionably, I think, pick your spots. You know, there might be a time where it makes sense to go to a lefty for the ninth inning, because you’ve got three of four guys do up that are left handed swingers. So, you know, I think we saw the Orioles do this in September last year, on the heels of Batista being hurt, Brandon Hyde did match up much more now you do have Craig Kimbrel and again, if Craig Kimbrel looks right again and gets some stuff straightened out, then fine. But I think you have enough options. I don’t think I’m not going to sit here and say I trust all of them unconditionally, 100% but you have enough options where explore, make it a little more matchup based, you know, look at it through that lens. So that’s where I kind of said this. This is the challenge right now, when you have so many new parts, whether you’re talking about lineup or the bullpen or, let’s face it, we and we haven’t even talked about this. Trevor Rogers, new to the rotation. Zach Eflin, new to the rotation. Eflin, so far, so good, right? You know, pitched well over the weekend. Rogers not so good in his debut. You know, pretty bad, quite frankly. But you know, you’re you’re trying to figure out what these guys can do. You know, what’s the best spot for some of these guys? When do you pull Eflin? When do you pull Rodgers? When do you leave them in there? A little bit longer. Little bit longer, you know? So there is you’re trying to win every night. Let’s be clear, it’s not an excuse. But at the same time, you are trying to learn about these players a little bit, because, you know, nothing’s determined on August 5 or August 10 or August 20. Yes, you want to keep winning. Yes, you want to win the division and beat out the Yankees, but the ultimate goal is still October and making a deep October run. And they’ve got to learn about some of these new pieces. They have to kind of figure out what’s going to be the optimal use, the optimal lineup, the optimal bullpen usage, what our rotation is going to look like, all those different things. If you’re if you’re Brandon Hyde and Mike Elias, there is a little bit of that that goes on, and that’s scary, because you’d like everything to be set in August, but that’s just not where this team is right now. So makes for some unsettling moments, but I think it also makes for some fun moments, because who knows, Sir Anthony Dominguez could go on an absolute role, and maybe he is, maybe he does become their at least part time, closer the rest of the way. I mean, he did that for Philly a couple years ago. And you know, Gregory Soto was an all star closer at one point in time, not saying it’s going to happen now, but you at least are intrigued by the options that you’re adding here. We’ve they’ve added more swing and miss, and you know, it’s just a. Matter of, yeah, the ideally Craig Kimbrel gets himself situated and looks like he did earlier, you know, after he had his little swoon in early May. But they also have to plan for the possibility that that doesn’t happen or he goes through another one of these. And I think the key, and this is where I’ll give Hyde some credit, they have not, you know, they’ve shown a willingness to say, Craig, we love you, but you’re struggling right now. We’re going to go with someone else for the time being, and you might pitch the seventh inning or the eighth inning, you know, and for a little while, and we’ll come back to you, but we need you to be right. So they have not just said, Oh, he’s our closer, he’s our closer, he’s our closer, no matter what. And you know, it’d be foolish to to proceed that way, because he, again, he’s just not that elite guy that he was a decade ago. But if you use him correctly, I think he can still be really good. And I think he can still, you know, they’re gonna need him. Let’s be clear. You know, Craig time,
Nestor J. Aparicio 25:54
inning by inning, right? Oh, you know, yeah, night by night, by case, based on what your lead is based on how far your starter went, based on who pitched yesterday, based on this week they actually had a day off. It feels like they haven’t had day off since April, to me, right? Like days off or like they don’t play today. What you’re kidding me, right? Like, like, damn. It feels like they went the whole month of June and didn’t have a day off. It does? It feels like they play baseball twice a day, every day, in some cases. Oh, yeah.
Luke Jones 26:22
I mean, we talked about June a lot, and how much of that contributed to their struggles. It’s probably a factor, right? I mean, they had so few days off, but hey, it’s also baseball, and you’ve got
Nestor J. Aparicio 26:32
guys injured at that point. They didn’t have Kramer at that point, all the arms started to fall off. I mean, that was, that was tough, yeah? And that’s
Luke Jones 26:39
the thing. I mean, that’s why, look, I understand and look, I’ve expressed you and I’ve expressed concern about this baseball team over the last five weeks. But you also need to take a step back and say, okay, as bad as it looked for a while there, as concerning as it felt for a while there, they’re 21 games over 500 in the first week of August, even after a five week period where they played 90 plus lost baseball in terms of pace, you know, they’re fine. You know, they’re right there with the issue
Nestor J. Aparicio 27:08
with Suarez and Cole Irvin and whatever that mean, like for a long period of time. Love that, right? I
Luke Jones 27:13
mean nothing, it hasn’t gone perfectly. And the Yankees are the same way. And for as much as they struggled, the Yankees struggled. Cleveland went through a period of time where they weren’t playing as well. I mean, look, in the National League, the Phillies haven’t been right for a while now, to the point where the Braves, despite all the Braves injuries, have kind of climbed back into that race a little bit more. So, you know, this is it’s 162 right? I mean, as much as it’s fun to talk about the pace that they were on earlier, and say, Oh, well, they’ve got a chance to they might equal the 69 and 70 Orioles. Yeah, when you see a six in front of the percentages, that’s when things change. To me, you’re playing 610, 620, ball. That’s
Nestor J. Aparicio 27:51
different than 577 ball. Anybody 577 ball? You know? Well,
Luke Jones 27:56
not anyone can. Anyone can play 577 ball for a for a period of time, right? Not, I mean, even for a full season. I mean, we’re still talking about a team that’s, you know, on a pace to win well over 90 games, right, and still have a chance to be the number one seed. Point is all the struggles they’ve had and everything that’s gone wrong in terms of injuries, of the starting pitching, and, you know, westburg with the injury, Mateo with the injury, Adley rutschman, looking awful for five weeks, just awful at the plate for five weeks. Gunner Henderson, going through a five week period where he didn’t look terrible overall at the plate, but the power kind of went away, right? They
Nestor J. Aparicio 28:35
also had their number one prospect fail terribly, and have to go back.
Luke Jones 28:41
Injury. Yeah, right, but, but I was, but more so talking about this five to six week period where it hasn’t gone as well. All of that being said, they are still right there to win the division. They are still right there to be the number one seed in the Al. So look, you can, you can always look at it through the negative lens and say, Oh, well, wow, they could have a, you know, if they had played better baseball, they’d be seven games up on the Yankees, and then they’d have a comfortable lead for home field advantage and all that. And look, that’s true, but it could always be worse, too. The Yankees could have played amazing baseball over the last five weeks while the Orioles struggled, and we’d be talking about a wild card, because they’d be out of the division. So you just kind of, you have to look at it through its in its totality, and you say, even with how this season’s gone, with some of the peaks and valleys and injuries and all of that, and Westbrook being the most recent example of unfortunate injury that really hurts, they’re still right there. And there’s still so much to like about this team. And now you add Jackson holiday into the mix, and you say, okay, not saying the kid’s gonna be a superstar immediately, but what he’s looked like since he’s come back has been promising. You know, it’s looked pretty good to the point where, if he keeps hitting like this, he’s probably not gonna be hitting ninth anymore. But, you know, you look at that, you give Mayo some time here to establish himself. You see if Aloy Jimenez can be a nice platoon bat for you all. Off the bench and all of that. You see, if gunner can get himself going again with the Home Run Ball, which, you know it’s starting to look like, maybe that ends up being the case with the home run on Sunday that he had and starting to hit for more power. Rochman had a couple knocks and drove in runs on Sunday, so that was good to see. So you know, you, I think you still have to look at what this team’s been for now, over four months on the heels of what they did last year. And say there’s still so much to like about what they are. And now you know, how about the fact that they won on Sunday with Corbin burns having probably his worst start of the year, right? He gave up five runs, albeit four of them earned, but the unearned run was because of the error that he committed. So
Nestor J. Aparicio 30:39
yeah, yeah. And you could see he was not pleased with that, sure, but,
Luke Jones 30:43
but that’s going to happen, and they won, right? I mean, we’ve talked, how much have we talked about the last few weeks where we say, Wow, if it’s not burns or Grayson, Rodriguez and now Eflin, obviously being added into that conversation, if it’s not one of those guys starting, boy, they’re in trouble. Well, burns didn’t pitch well on Sunday, and guess what? It didn’t matter, because they still won, because they they ended up scoring nine runs. So it was good to see. So the offense has come alive. Pitching, you know, is still very much an open book in terms of what it’s going to look like. You really hope that, you know, I feel really good about the Orioles top three in the rotation now, with Eflin in that picture, Kramer, you know, it’s how’s he going to be pitching come the last week of September. And same with Trevor Rogers, right? I mean, these are your number four and five starters, whichever order you want to put them in. And what you’re hoping is one of those guys is pitching well enough to say, hey, when we need a number four starter in October, then that’ll be the guy, and the other guy will be in the bullpen, then in long relief. So, you know, there’s just, there’s a lot of, I keep using the word evaluation and people, I know people don’t want to hear that when you’re talking about a contending team, but when you have as many new pieces as you do, you are trying to figure out what’s going to fit you know, where’s Gregory Rogers going to fit into, in, in, or Gregory Soto, I’m Sorry, mixing my left handers together right there. That’s true. Yeah, where? Where is Gregory Soto going to fit as far as best ways for Brandon Hyde to use him? Where is Sir Anthony going to fit in terms of where to use him? What’s this mean for canoe? Now, you know your hope, part of this is also hoping you don’t have to work canoe and Jacob Webb quite as hard as you have all season, because you’re hoping you add another guy or two here that that you’re going to come to trust now, Soto is first time out. Not so much. Well, you
Nestor J. Aparicio 32:27
gave him a b b minus two weeks ago in the trade deal, right? A week ago, it feels like a month ago, but a week ago, right? It was a long time ago the trade. It hadn’t even been a week. It’s been six days, as we said, five days, as we said here in thought, but it you gave him a b minus in regard to the deadline. You know that becomes an A minus if one of the relievers is good, if one of the starters really establishes. Wasn’t Rogers last week at this point, but he made changes around the edges without giving away the farm will judge that two years from now, when mayo and holiday and, you know, all the guys he didn’t deal are and the Scio, these guys are all going to be a part of this thing that you don’t give those pieces up. But there is an expectation they better have a parade here in November, or whatever they did wasn’t good enough. And that’s a different sort of measurement for the we sit here. Every time I talk anything about the football team in August, everybody says, wake me up the third week of January. I’m like, wow, we’ve come a long way with the football team. We’re getting that way with the baseball team a little bit to say, if they fail again in October and they don’t win a game or win one and go home after four days early in October, you would start to look at and say, well, who’s this? Isn’t really about playing to get to October 5 and play a playoff game. They did that last year. We’re already assuming they’re there having played six under ball all year. Now it’s where are these pieces going to sit in an October lineup? And to your point, you’re like, they haven’t been afraid to make changes. I mean, just look at the roster. The roster’s got, what, seven, eight guys on it that weren’t around here four weeks ago, five weeks ago. That’s a third of the roster.
Luke Jones 34:11
I mean, it’s, you know, it’s, it’s, it’s in that territory, no question now and again. I mean, we’re, you know, bullpen pieces are pretty fluid, right? I mean, you know, bullpen pieces come and go, especially when you have a bullpen that hasn’t had a lot of depth, which has been what we’ve talked about, you know, how they have three or four guys and then the back four guys in that pen had kind of been, you know, optional pieces, or guys added
Nestor J. Aparicio 34:31
two starters, two relievers. You’ve added two rookies, in holiday, in Mayo, into different places. You’re trying to figure out Jimenez, you’re trying to figure like almost inflator, thank you very much. So just eight guys give you eight names, there you go.
Luke Jones 34:48
Yeah, no. I mean, I agree with you. That’s why I said, as much of this is you’re trying to win. There is a learning element here. There is an element here of how Brandon Hyde is going to use these guys. How. You know, how the front office kind of looks at this and say, Okay, this is the right spot to use him. Or, or we’ve tried this and this doesn’t look right, so we need to pivot. Or, you know, 620 ball
Nestor J. Aparicio 35:10
with the guys they had right, like, well,
Luke Jones 35:14
but also that that included pitchers that are no longer healthy, that included position players who are no longer healthy. So, I mean, it’s, you know, you part of it was their hand was forced a little bit here with some of these moves. But I think we also saw a team that had some opportunities to try to make themselves better or to try to enhance and it was nothing dramatic. And look to go back to what you said about October,
Nestor J. Aparicio 35:41
but it is dramatic. It’s dramatic when you replace a third of your roster, that is dramatic. Oh, but, but not all the but we’re
Luke Jones 35:47
also not talking about all these guys being starting players, right? I mean, you know, Jimenez and Slater, for example, or bench pieces, right? I mean, these are bench pieces, or platoon guys. I look, I hear what you’re saying, but I we also saw this team struggling for a while, and you know, we absolutely saw a need for them to get better in the bullpen and get better on the back half of their rotation. And so they had to do that, right? I mean, you don’t just look at it and say, Oh, 620 ball or whatever, then we’re fine. We don’t have to do anything, right? No, it doesn’t work that way. I mean, you want to try to get better, and for what they did, and I would say, in comparison to what other teams in the Al did, you know, I think they did well for themselves. I’ve even seen, you know, fan graphs did a piece that, you know, fan graphs has like their projections, where they look at postseason probability and World Series probability and all that. And according to fan graphs, and look, it’s one thing, and it’s a projection system. At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter. It’s just on paper, what it kind of looks like this. You know, this fan grabs, I think it’s the zips projections. Dave zimborzki does those said that the Orioles actually improved their World Series probability better than anyone in the Al with the moves they made at the deadline. Now they were incremental. It’s not like the Orioles doubled their World Series chances by what they did. I mean, to your point, it was on the margins. But hey, if you can get better on the margins without giving up too much in terms of draft or, you know, not draft picks in terms of prospects, then why wouldn’t you do it? So, you know, we’re going to see how it plays out, and look they could have made the biggest moves, the biggest moves you could make. And that doesn’t guarantee you a World Series. That doesn’t guarantee you an ALCS. We’ve talked about it. How many big name trades have been made over the years that either didn’t work out, or it did work out, and the guy was really, really good, yet you still didn’t get to the World Series because it’s really difficult, and it’s baseball and it’s high variance. And when you have expanded the playoff field to the degree that they have in recent years, it becomes a lot more of random events. I mean, it really does. Arizona wasn’t the best team in the NL last year. They weren’t even close to the best team in the NL last year. The Rangers were a wild card team last year. So it’s no longer about, oh, we must win the most number of games we can win in the Al and then that will assure us of going to the World Series. It doesn’t play out that way very often anymore. I mean, it really doesn’t, and that’s what’s kind of scary about this. If you’re look at the Dodgers, look at the how many wins they’ve accumulated over the last decade. How many World Series do they have to show for it? One, and it was in the weird pandemic shortened year. So I mean, it really is a tough proposition. And I don’t say that to be dismissive of this team needing to take the next step. I absolutely agree with you that I would say anything short of at least, let’s say getting to the ALCS would be a colossal disappointment, colossal disappointment for this team. But that said they got to stay healthy the rest of the way. I mean, they certainly can’t afford to lose any more pitching then, then the expectations might change if, heaven forbid, something happens to a Grayson Rodriguez or an Eflin or a Corbin burns, then we’re talking about a totally different set of expectations, but where they are right now. It really is a case of figure this out in terms of how all these pieces fit with the bullpen. And, you know, hope to get something out of Trevor Rogers, you know, I you know, obviously that first start was pretty ugly. Quite frankly, that was not good. You know, you’re hoping that it was more a case of reporting a new team hadn’t really met everyone yet, and he’s starting that night. So you’re hoping he’s better next time out. You’re hoping that these young guys, you know, talking about holiday and mayo can settle in and looks like holiday is. We’ll see about mayo. And in the case of Jimenez and Austin Slater, just be a good fit. You know, be a good teammate. Be accepting of your role. When you get it out, when your numbers called, go out there and do the job. You know, if you do that, then you have a team that may not win 101 games like they did last year, or not win 106 Like they were on pace to do several weeks ago, but they’ll be in the playoffs, and they’ll be as formidable as just about anyone. So at that point, it’s a matter of who’s hot in early October, and then you try to ride that wave to a World Series. I mean, it really is. There’s a lot more luck and random events occurring in that than anyone really wants to admit. That’s why parent what’s Paramount is getting in and that’s why you like the first round by because you don’t have to deal with the best of three that. I mean, the best of three, who the heck knows what’s going to happen, right? I mean, you could put the best team in baseball against the worst team in baseball, I guess, maybe other than the White Sox, because they’re really, really bad. But put anyone in baseball on a best of three, who knows what’s going to happen? So this is all about right now. I mean, obviously they have to keep winning, but they are really trying to figure out who exactly they are the rest of the way, which kind of sounds a little scary, but there’s also some really interesting opportunity and upside there that they might be able to unlock. That’s why I love seeing holiday and mayo here, because whatever lumps they might take right now, you’re hoping that makes them that much better in September and October. And I mean, we saw this with the Rangers, you know, look at some of the guys they were counting on last October that weren’t even on their roster in June, and they had those guys making big time contributions for them. So you never really know how it’s going to play out. And so it makes it so fun, right? Buck show Walter used to always say, if we know what’s going to happen every night, boy, baseball would be really boring, but you know, it’s definitely a different team of revamped roster. And you know, they they’ve they regrouped nicely against Cleveland, and now we’re going to see what this looks like against the Al east over the next week. Well, you know,
Nestor J. Aparicio 41:45
the one interesting thing that happens whenever they play in Toronto is I get to figure out whether Getty Lee’s going to be behind home plate. Did he give up the tickets? I haven’t seen it behind home plate. All. They
Luke Jones 41:54
didn’t trade him, right? I mean, they traded other guys. I
Nestor J. Aparicio 41:56
did not if they can’t trade Getty, because there’s no other team that plays in Canada. Getty’s not leaving Canada. I mean, maybe play for the Expos with Warren Cromartie or something like that. Um, Luke Jones can be found. Uh, he’s not getting traded either. He’s, uh, we trade him at the Owens Mills this week for, uh, ravens. Camera. We’re gonna talk a lot of ravens this week. Uh, what’s going on there the and maybe this speaks to Getty, living in the suburbs, can’t get there by 630 the games are seven o’clock games in Toronto all week long. So you get an extra half an hour to eat your food before you you turn to Kevin Brown, whoever’s the broadcasters are, home run riches is going off for the Maryland lottery, grand slams, with Jackson holiday running poor John Martin around to find five grand to pay all these winners, the Gold Rush, sevens, doublers I will have in my pocket two weeks from Friday, when we’re at fade Lee’s down in Lexington market. I’m wearing my Costa shirt. We’re back to Costas in September as well. They have big fat crabs over there right now as well. All of our sponsors we’re getting now. We’re going to be Cocos on September 4. You’ll be interested in hearing this. Luke Jones, there’s, I don’t know if you heard that Mark Viviano retired. He’s coming out of retirement for one hour to talk sports with me on the eve of the chiefs and the Ravens. So Mark Viviano will be our guest at Cocos as we bring the Maryland crab cake tour back out on the road. The oyster tour begins on September 5. Um, I’ve got all sorts of man, I am looking at these oyster places all around town, going to some new places. Really looking forward to that. Das had me eating some fried oysters down in fades. So September is a month with an R, so we will have oysters all month long. And the oyster Recovery Project, I’ll be teaching you why, what that is when they take all the shells and they put them in the little bag and they tell you, don’t throw the shells away. I’ll be educating folks all month about how that makes your crab cakes taste better. I am Nestor. He is Luke. We are wnst. Am 1570 Towson, Baltimore, and we never stop talking Orioles baseball, even when they’re north of the border. We’re Baltimore positive.com. Stay with us. You.
