With the MLB trading deadline set for August 30th at 6 p.m., Luke Jones and Nestor look at the Orioles’ treasure trove of legit prospects and the untouchables of Mike Elias as the franchise looks to deal for more pitching – starting and relief – before next Tuesday night.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
orioles, trade, team, prospects, week, baseball, year, talking, point, kobe, pitching, trade deadline, game, star, moves, players, playing, tigers, yankees, october
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor J. Aparicio
Nestor J. Aparicio 00:02
Welcome home we are wn st Towson, Baltimore. Baltimore positive we are positively into another baseball week but it is a special week it is trading deadline week, Luke and I will be monitoring all of these things and obviously any breaking news you’ll find us at first on social media we’re doing our Maryland crab cake Tour presented by the Maryland lottery, our friends, give us these gold rush sevens doublers to give away so that you can make some money we we had some winners that fade these last week as well took a picture with with one very lucky $20 winner last week. So we’re appreciative of that on the 13th we’re going to be at State Fair, and Catonsville all of it brought to you by our friends at Liberty pure solutions keeping our water crystal clear and safe well water as well as my plumbing needs I had last week with Liberty pure and our friends at Jiffy Lube, multi care, keeping the cars oiled up lubed up ready to go even on 100 degree days and Luke is up doing these 100 degree days back and forth from Owings Mills down to Camden Yards. oriels are in Miami where it’s 100 degrees. I was there last week. Look up on the baseball site where there’s gonna be so much oxygen on the trading deadline. They still gonna go up play games, right, Miami is here San Diego this week. Tell me how you’re feeling about what you’re seeing on the field because clearly before the all star break, they had really scuffled and you mentioned that last win against the Yankees being a little bit miraculous before the all star break. It was a good week to get away. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that for all the guys that got away and didn’t do anything for burns. And for Westberg. And the guys that played a little bit in the All Star game, they got to hang out in Arlington, and they get off to a decent start and only 10 this week and I we’re gonna spend so much time talking trading deadline. Gotta keep our eyes on the ball here going down to Miami this week.
Luke Jones 01:51
Yeah, no question about it. I mean, things were rough. Leading into the all star break, obviously, when you add to five game losing streaks, want roughly a month’s time, which is just so unlike this team, but also find it’s not as though they were awful over that last month, they were mediocre. If you have a mediocre stretch, you can overcome that what you don’t want to have is what the Yankees largely dealt with, which was just being plain bad for three and a half weeks. And they’re still trying to get up, get off the Mets. So to speak from that. So I think the Orioles, the break came at a perfect time, gave you a chance to rest up gave you a chance to reset your rotation a little bit. Obviously, Corbin burns, grace, and Reagan gave them a great chance to win over the weekend. And they took two out of three. And I think when you look at the landscape of the rest of the American League, Yankees, we’ve talked about them, the Red Sox went to LA and got swept by the Dodgers, you know, the Boston had been playing such good baseball going into the break. So maybe that’s a team that didn’t want the all star break to to occur. And you know, even Cleveland who has been right there with the Orioles in the Yankees for the best record in the ACL, you know, they had a disappointing weekend. So you know, you’re always you’re always trying to evaluate this in the short term while also keeping your eye on to your point, the big picture. And this is an Orioles team, that’s still in great shape. They’re going to make the playoffs regardless of what happens at the trade deadline. I feel confident in saying that, you know, it would be an epic collapse at this point in time. If they didn’t make the playoffs, at the very least. So you know, you’re going to be playing October baseball. So it’s a matter of playing good baseball to put yourself in position to, of course win the division, of course be in position to get that first round buy, which I still think is the advantage, something you’d rather have the not even with the anecdotal evidence of the last couple of years, just understanding that’s how baseball works sometimes. But in the meantime, you know, you’re you want to go to Miami and take advantage against the Marlins team that has been bad. You know, this is the kind of series and I saw some fans talking about this on social media were two out of three at an absolute minimum, obviously. But this is kind of series that you’d love to get a sweep. But at the same time, as I pointed out when it’s TBA TBA after Albert Suarez and you’re trying to figure out exactly what your the back half of your rotation is going to look like. You know, it is a little bit of a challenge. So yeah, they just need to take care of business. And that’s what this team last three and a half weeks, four weeks aside, they’ve been able to do that. So I’m confident that they’ll continue to do that. But it is definitely a weird week when you’re talking about the trade deadline and maybe not guys on the major league roster being quite as concerned that they’re going to be dealt, but at the same time roles can change depending on who is acquired and who was brought in. So there’s definitely some eggs there’s always you know, you can tell when it’s trade deadline time because there is a little bit of tension that isn’t normally there when you’re talking about a long six months season. So be interesting to see how that plays out. But you’ve said that the Royals just need to keep winning and got themselves off to a good start with the series win in Arlington. Yeah, I
Nestor J. Aparicio 05:15
hate to say that they’ve had good fortune because of the pitching. I mean, it has not been good fortune on the health side of that. But across the rest of the roster, you know, young players all star game, the fatigue factor that I think we saw setting in before the all star break for a lot of these young guys, we talk about innings pitched for arms, and you know how far crochet could make it this year if you were to get him. But then there’s just the the Adley rutschman is in the gunner Henderson’s and the and the Jordan Westberg, who are playing not through their first major league here, but playing through a summer where they’re expected to win their first place team. There, there’s just a lot of hubbub around them. Now, you may go to New York, there’s people there. The All Star game, they were celebrated team, they added the starting battery, like the whole deal. The fortunes of all this change in the leadership part of the best players, Henderson rutschman Westberg, for sake of argument sent down there throw him in there as to how that holds up for them when it did look a little heavy a couple of weeks ago. I mean, we started to see them struggle, and the Yankees are struggle big time. To your point, they’re not on 115 one pace anymore. They’re just on the well, maybe the only 199 or 101, God forbid the only one 100 this year would be a backup from last year. But these are the dog days and the all star game came and went we had a Hall of Fame ceremony that I didn’t even realize happened. Like literally just kind of I saw the highlights on Monday morning of it. I guess maybe it wasn’t a big enough Jim Leyland or Todd Helton fan, I’m not sure. But from the baseball perspective of going out and doing this every single day all summer long when it gets hot out there. We’re talking about trade deadlines and all of these other issues. I’m more concerned about the guys they actually have continuing to perform and not have that S word slump for the whole team. But see, we’re Mullins and Hayes and some of these veteran players are that they’re going to get their sea legs under them halfway through a season. That fancier expect to be playing late into October.
Luke Jones 07:29
Yeah, and that’s where I’d actually say I mean, that’s where last year’s experiences can be positive for them. And when I say last year’s experience, meaning what how they had to play in September, and how tight the race was with the race. And now you’re anticipating a similar story with the Yankees and maybe the Red Sox before it’s all said and done. Although certainly with a rough weekend at Dodger Stadium, take some of the buzz away from them for the moment. But I think, you know, this is a team that’s now been through that I think a lot of what you just said I think was applicable last year I think at the at the All Star break last year the Orioles were a big story because they were right there with the race for first place and the Al least and had played so well and had rutschman and had Batista and the all star game and had a yen year Cano and Austin Hey, so they had some of that last year. So I think the fact now that you’re going through that, again, the fact now that you know what August in a pennant race feels like, you know what September in a pennant race feels like, you know what October feels like and getting swept and getting your feelings hurt after winning 101 games. So I think from that standpoint, they’re better equipped now. Now, that doesn’t mean that they’re guaranteed of anything. And we’ve talked about this, they need more pitching. They need guys to stay healthy, you know, they need their their lineup to get a little more consistent than what it’s been over the last three or four weeks where, you know, the offense has fallen off a little bit. So, but these are guys at this point in time. You know, I’ve talked a lot about, you know, the counselors and the curse dads of this roster, wanting to see the next Jordan Westberg emerge, so to speak, meaning someone who’s a consistent everyday player. But you know, they’ve got a lot of guys who have maybe not the longest track record in the world, but guys that are starting to build some pretty impressive track record starting with your two best players in Gunnar Anderson and Adley rutschman. So, you know, I think it’s it’s a challenge, but no different than what any other team is going through. And like I said, even over this last month, where they haven’t played as well. It’s not as though it’s been terrible, right? It’s not as though it’s been worse team in baseball as the Yankees were for what a three week stretch their record wise. So you know, it definitely lends itself to confidence that this team is going to play good baseball, and I think Mike Elias is going to make some reinforcements here that aren’t necessarily going to be dramatic shifts. You know, I’m not necessarily expecting dramatic moves to be made, but I think they’re going to find a couple moves. cuz that are going to help them and at least raise the floor or at least stabilize the back half of the rotation. Hopefully add a couple more bullpen arms that you trust. And then you go from there. But yeah, you said it. And I’ve said it over and over that, ultimately, this team in October, and fortunately, in October, I’m still betting much more heavily on the guys that are already on the roster, making the biggest difference in either winning or losing, then, you know, I don’t want to call it a pipe dream because I don’t think it’s impossible but adding Tarik scruple for example, where you know, even if you do that, which would be an incredible acquisition would be exciting as as can be as trade deadline acquisitions go, you know, you’re still talking about someone who’s still only going to take the ball once every fifth day, right? I mean, that’s why baseball is such a I was talking about this with a friend recently. Why I love baseball so much compared to other sports is you do have to wait your turn, right? I mean, Gunnar Henderson is one of nine guys that that every time through the order, it’s not like LeBron James, you can touch the ball every single time down the field. It’s not like Lamar Jackson, who has the ball every single play on offense. So you know, in baseball, that’s where there is still that individual matchup. And there is still, that sense of wanting to have as as balanced the lineup as balanced the rotation as balanced the bullpen as you can have, because you can’t just rely on the same guys over and over and over. And that’s where on the pitching side, they’re trying to find more of that. But on the offensive side, that’s where, you know, you do have some guys that, you know, I mean, three, four weeks ago, you know, beginning of June, look where some time dares numbers were compared to where they are now where he’s right on gunner Henderson’s heels for the team lead and homeruns. I mean, who would have predicted that back on Memorial Day, so you never really know. But that’s where you do have roster depth, and you do have a lineup that is deeper than it was certainly two or three years ago, you know, stating the obvious, but you know, you’re gonna have to rely on some of those guys. I mean, Adley, rutschman, going into the all star break, wasn’t swinging the bat swinging the bat as well as he normally does, you know, you don’t panic over that. You have confidence. He’s going to turn that around. And he does and will and all of that. But, you know, you need guys to step up at different points in time. And that’s where position player wise, I have more confidence in them doing that. But yeah, the pitching side that continues to be much more of a question mark. And that’s why there is so much oxygen, and so much interest in what’s going to happen here over the next week with the potential trades.
Nestor J. Aparicio 12:45
So when this trade happens, whatever the trade is, who can’t be involved in your mind is mayo. off the list is holiday? Where are we with feeling good about a trade that might include Karstadt hours? We’ve talked so much about the veteran guys being a part of maybe an exit strategy for a team that, you know, team loses a second baseman, they need a second baseman, right? What Norby goes in that whatever the the team that you deal with needs and we talked so much about Detroit and and the White Sox, but is there I would think holidays just not deal a bowl like that’s not going to happen no matter what. But is there anybody else?
Luke Jones 13:31
I mean, it’s so tough Nestor, because I still look at this list of God. Right now. I’m looking at the athletics, top 50 trade candidates and they just basically put anyone they have Ladd Jr. on there. For example, I don’t think the Blue Jays are going to deal but the kind of guy who will at least be mentioned and has been mentioned from a speculation standpoint. And I just look at this list and I look at the top of the list and I say, you know how many of these guys are worth worthy of dealing those kinds of prospects? We’re not and I’m not talking about Star Wars. I’m not talking about you know, nor be guys like that, you know, even even Heston curse that I’m not, you know, but you look at Jackson Holliday, who? Look this year has gone has been weird for him. There’s no question about that. But I don’t think anyone should be looking at it through a lens of 10 games of struggles, even a man struggles. Dimming down the the star that is his prospect status. And you know, I just don’t know if there’s anyone that’s out there. You know, if the Tigers said, hey, we’ll give you school for Jackson holidays straight up. I mean, I don’t know. You know, but at the same time, you know, Kobe nails a pretty special hitting prospect Sam, Sam Messiah was a really special catching prospect, who I think can stick at that position and can really change your dynamics with the Hadley rush. and maybe you have two catchers that you feel comfortable playing all the time, rather than leaning on someone like James McCann, who doesn’t give you a whole lot at the bat. So, you know, these are really, these are really, really good prospects. And I want to stress that and that doesn’t mean they’re untouchable. And I’m not saying necessarily that anyone is truly, undoubtedly untouchable, but it’s, it should take a lot to get guys like that it should take a lot. And my my point is, I just don’t know how many guys are really truly available that warrant giving up those guys. So that’s where I tend to focus more on the second tier guys. Which by the way, the Orioles second tier prospects, or most other teams first tier prospects, you know that that’s what we’re talking about here. Just because Connor Norby isn’t Jackson holiday doesn’t mean that he’s not well thought of in league circles. Or, you know, just because Kyle sours has been stuck at Norfolk doesn’t mean that he’s not a major league quality outfielder. So now, that doesn’t mean that you’re trading those two guys and getting Tarik school, you’re gonna have to trade one of your top guys, or maybe two of your top guys to get someone like him if the Tigers are willing to do it. But you know, it’s just so difficult to answer it because I just so much of what I see on the trade market, and so many of the names that are mentioned, are just guys that, you know, I just I don’t know, like, how special are they? Right? I mean, how much are they really moving the needle? You know, I mean, Martinez for the Reds was mentioned over the weekend as the Orioles looking at some of the reds, pitchers. I mean, these are league average guys, they can help you. I’m not saying they can’t help you. But are they guys that are putting you over the hump? In October? Are they guys that are winning ALCS games or World Series games for you? I’m just not so sure about that. So, you know, is Michael is truly swinging for the fences? Or is this more improving around the margins? That’s where I’m just, you know, I’m conflicted. So I’m never gonna sit here and say I’m never trading one of my best products no matter what. But it’s got to be something that’s worth trading. I mean, think about this, they got Corbin burns, a full year of Corbin burns. And they gave up Joey Ortiz, who has is turning out to be a really good major league player it looks like, but Joey Ortiz wasn’t a top wasn’t a top 15 or top 20 prospect in baseball, like some of these other names I’m mentioning. So you know, to trade that much, you know, you better be getting something really, really special in return. And that’s where I look at the list that’s out there. You know, the of guys that we think are getting traded, and I’m just not so sure. I mean, the White Sox want premier prospects for Garrett crochet and the upside and the talent is undeniable as far as the numbers he’s put up. But sky hadn’t even started a major league game before this year. This is a guy who’s had injuries, arm injuries, and he’s already blown past his career high in innings. So how are you even going to manage him, let alone knowing and having confidence to trade these types of prospects to land him so you know, it’s just it’s tough for me, it’s tough for me to answer that Nestor because I just I’m not sure how much true talent is going to be out there that even warrants trading those guys let alone if I’m willing to do it. Like I said, school. You know, am I willing to trade a Kobe mayo or besides to for Tarik school? Probably. But, you know, I gotta see what the I kind of see what the whole deal looks like. And I need to see ultimately, Tiger is even going to be reasonable I, I came across a Tigers kind of, you know, one of these fan sites, you know, so it wasn’t like the, you know, it wasn’t like a established newspaper, anything like that. But, you know, I saw the deal that they proposed it was Kobe mail, Heston curse dad, Samuel besides do and I think Chase McDermott and it was someone I think Jordan Westbrook was actually included in and I’m just like, there’s no way they’re given up that much for Tarik scoobo, who I really really liked, but they’re not given up that much to land that guy. So
Nestor J. Aparicio 19:24
it’s crazy, you know, just in a general sense to think that we’re giving up five prospects for pay. I mean, it’s fanboy alert. It’s not reality, but the reality is, um, you and I could sit here and make proposed trades for school all day long. They’re gonna include real players, you know, there’s just, they’re not getting away with this and, you know, sending Connor Norbi and a bag of Delaware River Valley mud, right, like that’s not going to happen.
Luke Jones 19:54
No, of course not. And, and I wasn’t implying that. And I’m not saying that you were suggesting that I was. Yeah. But that’s what’s tough about this. You might. And this is why so much of what you mentioned on Twitter and social media and fans trying to play GM. I mean, we all do it reporters are doing the same thing. You know, even those with the best intelligence, you know, with access to general managers and executives around the league, it’s not as though those executives are saying, oh, yeah, this is gonna be our proposal for this guy that we’re trying to acquire. I mean, it’s, it’s all poker, you know, and so much of this is, you know, who exactly is going to buy and sell? I mean, I think you could go back, as we’re talking on July 22 23rd 24th, you know, a week out from the deadline now, just or, you know, almost a, you know, we’re out a week, you know, eight days. You know, how many guys over the years on July 22, or 23rd, or 24th, or even on July 28. were said to have not been a trade candidate guys that aren’t going to be moved. And suddenly they are I mean, Justin Verlander. Remember the story for him being moved from the tigers to the Astros? I mean, there was very much a sense of, okay, that’s not going to happen. And then suddenly, he he’s like, Alright, let’s do it, you know, and the Astros got it done. And, you know, there’s a major success story. But there’s also the stories of guys that are talked about being traded and have trade no trade clauses. I mean, Adam Jones back in 18, remember to Andrew cat was ready to trade Adam Jones before even talking to him about it. And that was part of the that was a big reason why it didn’t happen. It’s like, Look, man, I mean, I have 10 Five Rights. And I’ve earned that as a long tenured player and in Major League Baseball. And, you know, Dan Duke had handled that poorly. You know, if they had had more dialogue with Adam ahead of time, I’m guessing he probably would have been amenable to go into the Phillies, but because it wouldn’t have been that far away. You know. And again, that’s an example. Max Scherzer has been talked about a lot despite the Orioles you know, kind of, you know, getting his feelings hurt over the weekend. He had pitched pretty well before that. But you know, his there’s been a lot of talk with him and his no trade and where the Rangers are right now. And you know, I mean, I know they’re defending champs but after losing two out of three of the Orioles, it’s just like, you know, are you guys really gonna make a move here? Or is this kind of who you are at this point in time, you know, just because you’ve got to figure
Nestor J. Aparicio 22:12
out who you are in the next seven days, right? Like, we’ve been talking about this for months. This is we’re not cut time here this week, for sure. I
Luke Jones 22:19
agree. But there’s still that in decisiveness that you see from teams. I mean, we see this I mean, look at the angels last year and how crazy that ended up being Oh, you know what, we’re gonna make one last push for show, hey, Otani, and maybe that will help us resign them and keep them and well, they traded away what was left in their farm system. They stomped the rest of the year and Otani left anyway. So like, I mean, there’s, there’s such an interesting range of outcomes. That’s why I’m sure when people listen, and I said, Well, you know, why don’t you be more specific? It’s like, because I don’t know, right? I mean, and the Orioles more so than other teams around baseball, in the mike Elias era have been very tight lipped, very close to the vest in terms of even when they’re going to call up a prospect. They’ve been very tight lipped about that, to the point where sometimes it’s been detrimental from a marketing standpoint, going back to Adley, rutschman, a couple years ago, right. So but from a base ball standpoint, there’s a method to their madness in their minds for that. So it just makes it very difficult to project and I’ll say this much, they obviously love Jackson Holliday, they they very much love Kobe male, they really, really, really are intrigued by besides despite the fact that he’s young, but he’s already a double A buoy. Right. And it, you know, I think the skills are looking more and more like skills that this isn’t going to be like a catcher by name only that moves to DH or first base right off the bat like Carlos Delgado 30 years ago. But I know these are special players. And I think, again, to part with them, you have to make sure you’re getting back special in return and you can’t force it. I mean, that’s any good executive would tell you, you’ve got to so many of these deals come down to timing. And so many of these deals just come down to just having the right fit. And that’s why I’ve even said, Don’t dismiss the possibility of there being a trade partner out there where you actually swapped some major league talent. You know, I fought that as a possibility. And I’ve used mountcastle Just as an example, who by the way has really struggled with the bat the last month. Again, example not me sitting here banging the table to get rid of Ryan mountcastle. But I’ve said it would there be a trade partner that you could add some pitching and they really need some offense and you move Orion out castle in the midst of a bigger deal. And then oh, yeah, that opens up a spot for Kobe male to platoon with Ryan O’Hearn at first base and suddenly you’ve kind of killed two birds with one stone there. You’ve you’ve opened up more of an opportunity for mayo and you’ve added some pitching in the process. Do I think that’s going to happen? Probably not. But um, but my whole point is, don’t be You know, don’t dismiss the possibility of a creative trade just because of, we’ve talked about this roster crunch this pending roster crunch for what, a year and a half now, and Elias has done his darndest to hold on to as much as he can. I mean, he is I don’t want to say hoard it, but it’s come close to hoard it these prospects. And I understand why because of you’re still trying to think about the long term, but at some point in time, you do need to clear the deck a little bit. So is there a way to do that? Whether you’re trading, I’m out Castle, Hayes, Ramona, as you know. And again, these aren’t centerpieces to get studs in return, but they could be part of a bigger trade to maybe align with another team, nationally contender, who knows? So? I don’t know. I just think it’s, I think there’s a lot of ways to really spit ball. And be creative in terms of making a deal that doesn’t just involve trading your top prospects and then realizing, oh, you know, we traded this guy, and yeah, we got a pitcher is pretty good. But, you know, he’s not Corbin burns, great. You know, he’s not, you know, maybe he’s as good as Grayson Rodriguez is right now, but may not have the same upside. So, you know, it’s just, it’s tough. And it’s fun. It’s exciting, because we don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. But again, this is an organization that is where they are right now, because of how disciplined they were in terms of trying to draft and develop now, spending money at some point in time, spending more money is going to have to be a part of that equation. But until we know the realities of that, I think Mike Elias is probably going to tread very, very carefully, because he said it all along. He said it last year, he said it this year. He says he’s not doing his job, if he is solely focused on 2024, there’s, you know, you can do both, you can improve for 2024, while maintaining long term health of your organization. And it’s going to have to take something really special. That’s why you’ve heard me say Google’s Google’s Google over and over and over because I just, I don’t know if there’s anyone else out there that they’re willing to part with their absolute top guys to land. And even then you’re still talking about someone who has a little bit of an injury history. So we’ll see how it plays out. But
27:17
I just I’m not sure that at the end of the day, there’s truly going to be the kind of talent out there that’s going to warrant the Orioles trading their elite of the elite prospects at the top of their system. Gonna be a big week around here. Training camps going on. Luke’s gonna be out in the wings Mills, the Orioles in Miami and then home against San Diego this week. And we’ll be all eyes on the trading deadline as
Nestor J. Aparicio 27:40
we get up on that next week as well. We have a big week around here. Lots of great guests coming on now. We’re taking the Maryland crabcake tour back out on the road in August, beginning on August 13. We’ll be with Angela also Brooks Prince George’s County Executive she’ll be joining us at State Fair she’s running for Senate. Larry Hogan has an invite to come on. We’ve obviously had massive movement at the top of the political spectrum so I’m going to be talking some politics and business and local things, talking to some local folks around here the next couple of weeks as well. But trading deadline football alive and well great concerts in town this week. It’s a it’s a fun fun week ran here I am Nestor we are wn St. Am 1570 tasks in Baltimore and we never stop talking. Baltimore positive
