It’s the first real offseason the Baltimore Orioles will experience under new ownership and different expectations – and possibilities. Luke Jones and Nestor take a Baltimore Orioles’ fan payroll view on the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees in the World Series.
SUMMARY KEYWORDS
World Series, Dodgers, Yankees, payroll, bullpen, starting rotation, Juan Soto, Corbin Burns, new ownership, Baltimore Orioles, baseball strategy, postseason, expanded playoffs, pitching investments, team building
SPEAKERS
Luke Jones, Nestor Aparicio
Nestor Aparicio 00:01
Welcome home. We are wnst am 1570 Towson, Baltimore and Baltimore, positive. We are celebrating 26 years. Don’t believe the 25 cupcake. Believe the 26 oyster. And we have our 26th anniversary oyster tour in progress right now, releasing all sorts things. By the time you’re hearing this, my dear friend Ray Bachman, our longtime executive producer, is battling cancer. There’s a GoFundMe page. I want to make sure I’m promoting that all week long as well. He was one of the early oyster days when we did the oyster tour back in September, getting it out here in October. All are brought to you by our friends at the Maryland lottery, conjunction with our friends at curio wellness, at my curio and foreign daughter shirt on right now, as well as the move balm on my back. I gotta stay loose for all these up all night World Series games we have with the mighty Dodgers and the mighty Yankees, but not the mighty Mets um, as well as some football. This week, our friends at Jiffy Lube MultiCare send Luke out on the road, and our friends at Liberty pure solutions, in conjunction, which, if you with curio wellness and our friends at the one 800 clean water, I’ve almost drank, drunk all of this water, this liberty, pure solutions water, they keep my water clean around here. And we’re really appreciative for all that they do. For all of our sponsors. They keep us going through another World Series without the Orioles, which I’m wearing my curio wellness orange shirt on and longing. Janet Marie Smith’s a friend of mine, Luke. I don’t mind saying that she’s an executive vice president with the Los Angeles Dodgers, as well as the canopy folks that should be getting some of your tax dollars to make this city, in downtown, in the stadium, better. It’s, it’s not hard to pick sides, but it really is picking between the USA and Russia, if you’re, you know, I don’t know, making it up. Belize when it comes to superpowers and money and like all of this that goes on with baseball and money and $300 million payrolls and all that. But I’ll say this, it’s been good baseball. Baseball has improved. What they do in October, it’s been sell you the whole seat. Only use the edge a little bit. Juan Soto, there’s been stars. Has it been all seven game walk offs and whatever? Been good baseball this month. Luke, I mean, my wife and I were watching baseball. We’ve dedicated hundreds of nights this year to watching baseball.
Luke Jones 02:26
Yeah. I mean, I guess my only complaint would be the NLCS every game was a blowout, right? I mean, it kind of, you didn’t have too much drama within each game. You know, is back and forth. And went six games. But I think the funniest part was how this thing evolved, where you’re talking about the ALCS, which obviously had the Yankees against Cleveland, and Cleveland having a lower payroll. I think Cleveland was 23rd 21st something like that, in payroll. This year, Yankees were second and I but I thought what was funny was the Mets became this, from a perception standpoint, this underdog. And it’s like, wait a second, they have the they have the highest payroll in baseball. So that part kind of made me chuckle a little bit because of, you know, just the disappointment that they were last year and the fact that they were lousy through the first two months of the season? I mean, it wasn’t until June that they took off, that they were able to even make the postseason as a wild card. But at the end of the day, you get two of the top three teams in terms of payroll. You get the two teams that finished with the best record in each league. Yankees were third overall because the Phillies edge them out as far as second best record in baseball. But it’s kind of maybe not what you expected from the standpoint of how the Dodgers have had to get here, when you look at just how much they’ve had to lean on their bullpen, when you consider what they use three starters in the NLCS, and two of them, Yamamoto and Walker Buehler, have dealt with injuries throughout the season. Jack Flaherty was their trade deadline acquisition, and even his Velo was down in game five to the point where it raised a little bit of concern. So it’s really been the Dodgers hitting the ball, obviously, and that part’s not surprising, but leaning as hard as they’ve had to lean on their bullpen, and that’s where you know, as we’re kind of sizing up what this World Series, how it could play out, that to me, is the start contrast, whereas the Yankees, even though the Yankee starters haven’t been going seven innings every start, they do have four guys that they line up and feel pretty good about handing the ball to as starters, whereas the Dodgers. I mean, would you call it maybe two and a half for them?
Nestor Aparicio 04:51
Hang on. You’re like, there was no drama. The Mets had the bases loaded in a three run game that was a five run game. And I’m trying to watch Sunday night football, you know, I don’t, I don’t know how I feel. Are the Dodgers going to make it to Game Six, you know? I mean,
Luke Jones 05:09
well, and that’s in and that’s the big question. I mean, at this point, with their bullpen at by the way, this is why you heard me talking about the Orioles bullpen all year long. You see how hard these teams lean on their bullpen. I mean, even in the case of the Yankees, who have a good rotation, who have guys that they feel pretty darn good about giving the ball to. I mean, think about it other than what was it? Rodone in game one against Cleveland, I don’t think they had another starter get out of the fifth inning. I mean, that just speaks to how hard you lean on your bullpen. And I think the big question here for the Dodgers, specifically, since they flat out, had two bullpen games, and that’s not even counting, you know, flair to get knocked out after three in game five, where, you know, your bullpen had to go that distance, I do wonder adding that extra round to the playoffs. We saw this big time with Class A with Cleveland. I mean, a guy who gave up more home runs in the postseason than he did in the entire regular season. I do wonder, with that extra round added and just the grind that it is navigating, even if you’re a team that gets a buy, still happen to get through the division round, Division Series round getting through the LCS, and now it’s like, okay, you’ve made it to the World Series. My question is, how much will these bullpens have left, specifically, especially on the Dodgers side, so but, but you’re right. I mean, sure they’re I mean, the Mets, you know, it’s not like they didn’t have their chances. And I throw Cleveland into that same boat. I mean, we got that epic game three win for the Guardians, and then game four is what killed them. I mean, they had their chances. I mean, they absolutely had their chances in that game, but they couldn’t come through. But at this point in time, these bullpen arms guys have been these managers lean so hard on them so many high leverage situations, times where they’re coming into the game at weird times. I mean, look at how the Mets brought in Diaz so early on Sunday night. Just you know, because they knew the top of the Dodgers order was up and they were trying to keep themselves in the game.
Nestor Aparicio 07:16
Dodgers were on their third pitcher in the fourth inning, and it wasn’t even like a knockout game for them. They didn’t have anybody they could get for earnings out of Well, that’s the thing.
Luke Jones 07:24
I mean, the Dodgers. I mean, we’ve talked so much about the Orioles pitching and how they were ravaged. I mean, the Dodgers, look at their rotation, the guys they have that aren’t pitching in October. I mean, how many million? I mean, and Clayton Kershaw, who’s not in that realm salary wise anymore, but was for a long time, and is going to the Hall of Fame. How many times do you see dug out shots of him? And it’s just like, oh yeah. Clayton Herschel is not available in this in this postseason, even though he hasn’t exactly been good in October in the past.
Nestor Aparicio 07:54
But Jack Flaherty, you’re rolling him out at this point. Yeah. I mean, it’s more like, we wouldn’t have thought that was like acceptable here in August and and we had arms falling off, we were, we were giving the ball to these Norfolk guys.
Luke Jones 08:08
Well, but that’s my point. I mean, Yamamoto had shoulder issues this year. I mean, Walker, Bueller, what hip. And, of course, he, you know, had Tommy John a couple years ago. I mean, it’s just, it really does speak to the fact that, yeah, having to show Hey, Otani and Mookie Betts and ti Oscar Hernandez and Edmund doing what he’s done. I mean, it’s they’ve needed to hit. I mean, there’s no doubt they have had to hit the baseball. And you look, I mean, what? Game one, they scored nine. They lost. Game Two, of course. Game three, score eight, game four, score 10, score 12 in or score six in game five, in a losing effort, and then another 10 spot in game six. I mean, they’re gonna have to score runs. But you know, the Yankees, from a pitching standpoint, you know, they’ve got a much more set rotation, the fact that the series doesn’t begin until Friday, they have this longer gap to set the rotation. By
Nestor Aparicio 09:03
the way, that’s always weird. Now we talk all this year, Barry bloom and I had a fight back in August about, no, you take it. I don’t want the division. I want a few. Dad, want the days off. They all get a week off now, so everybody can get sort of rested, set up. But you’re thrown on the side. You’re hitting on the side, it’s quiet. It’s five days of quiet. It’s not quiet in New York, maybe in LA you can get away from it a little bit, and it’ll start out there. But, you know, this is fun. And from Yeah, you look, you weren’t born. I mean, I lived 7778 and 81 the Reggie Jackson. I mean, Reggie was here in 76 and sitting five bombs a game in 77 and 78 and George Brad and like all that went on in that part of my childhood. So I was born in 68 so 910, and 13 and in 81 the Orioles were the best record both sides, and didn’t make the playoffs because of the. Split season, right? By the way, really good book written on the split season. If anybody wants to read it, I had a great guest on a few years ago, and a friend of mine who lives up Cooperstown, you go check that. That’s called split season. He’s a librarian in Cooperstown, New York. He’s awesome, true. One of your nerds, one of your guy, one of my guys, one of our history guys, right? But speaking of history, just there’s the whole Ron say, Davey Lopes, Jerry Royce, part, Don Sutton, part of my Dodger Yankee fascination of those nights with my dad and watching Yankee Stadium and Chris Chambliss and just all that that represented for me as a kid. There’s a part for me that when it happened, and it’s that’s Yankees Dodgers. Which Yankees Dodgers every year? I’m not of that era, of the Brooklyn Dodgers era, but it does feel like this happens more often than it happens. It feels like Yankees met Subway Series. Oh yeah, I attended those games. It was 25 years ago. So there is a point for, I think all of it, where maybe this is good for the game. You know, maybe it’s good to want sodos. Maybe it’s good for the conversation that Rob Manford is talking about nationalizing the media part of this. And I always go back to the business of baseball, and I know that’s not your jam. Totally my jam, because Jack Gibbons, my boss at the sun, made it my jam 35 years ago, and we started losing football teams and trying to keep baseball teams and then get a baseball team, and Yankees got more money than we got in you got the yes network, and we’re going to regionalize and that Mr. Angelos and sons that I live through all of this, and we’re still poor, and they’re rich, and they’re on the World Series, and we’re not. And baseball’s got to figure out the original Apple, you know, Adam and Eve, you know you want to nationalize media revenue, but you expect the Tampa rays to generate money. You expect the Baltimore Orioles to generate money when the nationals are down the road. I’m using Mr. Angelos words now, but we have the teams have spent the most are playing baseball this week, and we’re all watching, and to some degree, the drama around Juan Soto and whether he’ll sign there or not. Where else is he one of the other. I mean, you know the days of the guy from San Diego’s dead, Mr. Rubenstein is talking money bags on NPR, avoiding me your Mr. Rubenstein, come on. I mean, come on. At talk to a guy from Dundalk. It does this professionally, and we’ll talk about where your payroll, what’s your plan? Because I know what the Yankees and Dodgers plan is, spend more, make more, charge more. Spend more, make more, charge more. That’s it. And and we you and I did a hour last week with my friend that lives in Arkansas who doesn’t give Major League Baseball money that they need to sign Adley rutschman or gunner Henderson. We all want Mr. Rubenstein to sign gunner Henderson, and that’s great, except his agent won’t sign. They’re not going to sign. You know, I just did some readings from 2019 on Scott Boros handing out these, these contracts that he hated back then. Now, the plagues over the stadiums are full. They’re trying to figure out revenue. I’m trying to figure out how we keep up with this.
Luke Jones 13:17
I mean, they finished three games behind the Yankees in the Al east, the Yankees noted this is the first time the Yankees been in the World Series in 15 years. It’s not just about spending money. Now, if you look, and I went back and looked over the last 15 years of World Series, do you have to have the best payroll in baseball? No, do you have to have second? No, do you have to have third? No, generally speaking, however, if you want to have longevity, if you want to have a window that is elongated, and not just have a three or four year window where you kind of sort of have a chance, yeah, you probably need to have somewhere in the neighborhood of a top 12 payroll. I think that’s that would probably be my general rule of thumb, and there are always exceptions. I mean, last year, the Rangers are six, the Diamondbacks are 20th. Right. Go back to 2021 the Braves were 14th at that point in payroll. You know, when the Astros first won the World Series, they were 18. They got up to, know, about fifth in payroll. I don’t think they’ve been higher than that, you know, but that’s kind of been, that was kind of their peak going back. But
Nestor Aparicio 14:23
they did invest the revenue they had an owner this year, when we spend more Kansas City Law and Kansas City lie, Kansas City said, Yeah, give us money. Give us money. And then, and there, you know, they are where they are now, but this is and then there’s the pirates, guy who stole my free the birds gig. I don’t know if you saw that or not. I shared that on our Twitter, sell the team right and sitting behind home plate at a World Series game and spending two grand to get sort of promotion for sell the team in Pittsburgh, where there’s no hope. There was no hope here that Angelos was ever going to operate in anything less than what Marty Conway called an unorthodox. Manner, but really a profitable manner, and certainly the way the kids just bagged money at the end between mass and lowering payroll, taking the national revenue that was there, not reinvesting it, knowing that they were, you know, not buying enough ketchup to have for three months from now, because they were, they were out, even though they were telling the governor and other I mean, it’s been wishy washy here, which is all the more reason, as it comes back to us watching the Yankees and Dodgers. Mr. Rubenstein should be setting some clarity here, above and beyond. John Angelos doesn’t work here anymore, which was last week’s press release. I keep throwing this out that like I really need to see some sort of plan to buy in. And you mentioned Cleveland, they were given tickets away out there for game three when they went down to nothing, because the fans are just like, 50 bucks. I’m from Cleveland. I don’t want to see him lose again $50 American League championship game. It’s kind of blown away that didn’t exist 2030, years ago, because he needs to all these games, and I know what the tickets cost, and I I just for the other markets, the believability if we go into 7778 and 81 where it is Dodgers, Yankees, Mets that happened to sneak through. And I can’t believe you mentioned all the numbers, and I know it’s been a while for Billy ball and whatever the A’s were on to this before they added the other wild card team to sort of be able to sneak in to be good with no money. They made movies about it and all that stuff. Um, it is, uh, they didn’t even get lucky a couple of times. You know, sometimes when the lower, like you said last year, the Diamondbacks were 20, they sort of locked in. I remember the Rockies won, you know, 15 years. It’s been a long time for some of these other teams to get in. But then the angels were trying forever with trout notani and couldn’t piss a drop. And, you know, these lopsided franchises. But then there’s just the Angelos and the pirates just say, Hey, we’re making 30 million a year. The franchise goes up, you know, 50 million a year. We’re in really good shape here. You know, Adley, go see the Rangers. Go see the Astors. Let that. Let them pay you, who, whomever. And I’m making it up for him at this point, because we’re going to spend the whole off season diagnosing whatever the diagnosis is with him. But for for spending money, and Corbin Burns will be the first one for the fans here. Give him 230 we have to have one of those after until his arm falls off and he’s in the dugout, you and sunflower seeds and having Tommy John, or, you know, whatever Kyle Bradish, you know, whatever surgery you want to call it, investing the money is different when you’re the Orioles, or you’re the Brewers, or you’re The teams that don’t ever invest at the rays, the A’s, whatever, the Las Vegas, Sacramento, they can’t even get their can’t even get their franchises right. They can’t get their television right. But Mr. Rubenstein’s going to come in on a white cloud and be a Savior. I don’t know. I don’t know. I mean, if he’s a billionaire, so if he wants to throw an extra 200 million at this over the next five years, and say, here’s a billion more into this. I’ll get it out when we sell it for 3 billion, right? I’ll get it out, whatever the math is for these sharp guys. But to your point, the first thing you would say to them, little Luke from Pennsylvania, if you marched in there and Rubenstein said, you Luke, you’re a really smart guy. You’ve covered baseball Nestor is anointed you as a smart baseball guy. What do you think you’d say, Mr. Rubenstein, you’re gonna have to spend some money, more than you have right now, more than mass and more than your spreadsheet, more than Katie Griggs tells you she can get from sky boxes, from zips, dry cleaning, or, you know, lidos pizza, or whoever the sponsors are. Cfg, bad. Whoever it is, whoever the local people are. I’m just watching, and I’m witnessing this from the outside and saying, long term, we’re not going to be able to live in that neighborhood. I’m a Dundalk kid. I’m just not I can drive through Ruxton, I can drive through certain neighborhoods, but I’m never going to be able to afford to live there. Well, I
Luke Jones 18:59
mean, I guess my question is, what’s what neighborhood are you talking about? If it’s a top five payroll, then yes, of course there. I don’t think there’s any way, and I don’t think anyone expects that. You know, if it’s a top half of the league, if it’s a gradual, and when I say grad, gradual is not the right word, but an incremental investment in terms of keeping some of your own augmenting with more free agents, building the payroll up over the next five years, that it couldn’t be in the neighborhood of, on the fringe of top third, let’s say. I don’t think that’s impossible, but it’s got to be run right, but, but I’ll also say this, and again, I don’t want to just, you know, I don’t want to just cherry pick here, because the Yankees, again, look how much money they’ve spent over the last 15 years, and they hadn’t been to a World Series in 15 years. Look at the Dodgers and the regular season dominance over the last decade. Go look at the number of games they’ve won. How many World Series have they won over that time the pandemic. World Series, the weirdo, oh season and just bizarro season. So again, it’s not, it’s not about spending that money is a requirement to win a World Series. But if you do want to stay, get in that realm, and stay in that realm, in the long term, yeah, you’re going to have to spend. That’s why I pointed out that the Astros, when they won their first World Series in 17 they were 18th and payroll. Two years later, when they lost to the NATs, they were eighth, uh, they’ve been in the realm of right around fifth since then, because they have to, they and all these guys that are making all this money. So where the Orioles stand right now. They haven’t been in a position where they’ve needed to spend money because of their young core, but now you’re seeing where, okay, they hit a hiccup in terms of on the field second half of the season. And look everything that went wrong for them. The Yankees are playing in the World Series, and the Yankees finished three games ahead of them, right? This wasn’t the Yankees winning 115 games, and the Orioles are sitting there at 83 and 79 and it’s like, oh my gosh. How do we close the gap? It’s not that dramatic. But that said you do have work to do, and this is now we and we talked about this last off season. We’re very clearly now with new ownership, you know, where you can’t even say, okay, where does John a fit into this? And is, are they going to spend any money and all that.
Nestor Aparicio 21:27
That’s why it’s so exciting to go on, because it is right. There are possibilities. Yeah. I mean, I don’t know what they are, and I don’t know the and again, of these. That’s why I’m testing all of this. Saying, are you incredible people when? What are you about, David? I mean, you’re about making television commercials and handed hats out. That’s great. Come meet me for a beer. Let’s talk. Let’s talk about the Aparicio family and everyone I knowing being rest assured that this is no longer being operated in the fashion that I could not in good conscience or in good citizenship, or just in who I am endorse in the same way I can’t endure even though I’m wearing an orange shirt. I don’t vote for Orange presidents. I you know, there’s things that I’m willing to stand up for and not stand up for as a citizen, as immediate, you know, guy, as a truth seeker. It’s just to say this is different. Now, it really is different. Show me. Show me, because I’m seeing what the Dodgers and Yankees. I’m seeing what we’re up against. I know the long, not the battle, the war, not the battle you’re 74 not the next three to five years where you’ve got these young guys and for $1 and a quarter, you think you can keep some of them, but I mean, sometimes there’s a decision. Corbin Burns is his decision. I mean, there’s just all sorts of things. The whole thing’s a decision. If Mike Elias thinks Rubenstein’s a jerk, right? I mean, if they really don’t, if they’re not simpatico, the whole thing could get blown up here, because that’s what new ownership does. Ask. Greg Bader as TJ Brightman, the new new owners should be showing me something new. I just know what I’m going to see here the next 10 days, which is not the rich battling the richer the majesty of baseball, battling for our attention and for our thought that we’re going to be the ones to go to the Bronx and beat their ass next year, and how are we going to do it?
Luke Jones 23:28
I mean, look, they spend money like this. Is nothing new. We’re not we’re not covering new material here, talking about the the Yankees and the Dodgers up. But also throw out there. Look at how good the Dodgers farm system has been over the years. And look how many guys that you’ve never even heard of or helping them right now. They’re not, not all those guys are making, you know, all those guys in their bullpen, they’re not all ten million pitchers. I mean, they’re not our number three
Nestor Aparicio 23:51
starter was one of their guys, right, literally, right, yeah.
Luke Jones 23:55
And, I mean, on the Yankee side again, look at some of their players. Okay? Juan Soto granted. Aaron judge granted. I mean, you’re talking about two of the best players in the universe, right? And that’s not anything new. But look at some of the other guys that have contributed for them in ways that you necessarily, you know? I mean, look at how their closer emerged. I mean, they had a we were talking about in our previous football discussion. We were talking about kickers. Look at the controversy that they had. You know, we talked about the Orioles with Craig Kimbrell and what happened there, and Sir Anthony Dominguez coming in and becoming the closer. I mean, the Yankees dealt with the same thing with clay Holmes, right? And Luke Weaver comes in and has, for the most part, done a fantastic job for them. And you know, you I mentioned their their rotation being much more stable and deeper than what the Dodgers current rotation is, whatever that I don’t even know if it’s a rotation like I said. It’s like two and a half guys and a bunch of bullpen arms, uh, almost reminds me of where Cleveland was in that cubs year, where the the Indians at that point in time had like. Two starters, and they just leaned on their bullpen, Andrew Miller and their bullpen so hard at that point, but, but, but at the same time. I mean, the Yankees, you know, they’ve had to reshuffle their bullpen, and they’ve got some guys so, I mean, yes, the money gives you such a much larger margin for error, because we also know that these teams have a lot of money either sitting on the sideline or underperforming in certain spots and and maybe gene Carlos Stanton wouldn’t was the regular season example, although he’s looked like Babe Ruth in October. But we also know that Yankees fans have complained a lot about him the last couple years so but, but the point is, when you’re the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Phillies, any of these teams that are at the top of market in terms of payroll and giving out big deals, we know that they have margin for error. We know that a lot of those deals don’t work out, or they work out for three or four years, and then the back half of the deal just stinks. I mean, we’ve seen that over and over and over teams like the Orioles, who can get to a point where you invest and your payroll starts to trend up. I mean, we saw this in the Ducat era. I mean, where their payroll was in 2012 compared to where it was in 16, 1718, they had made investments. Now, they weren’t good investments, necessarily, but they had made finance. They also
Nestor Aparicio 26:24
had to wave bye bye to Marques. They also had to wave bye bye to Nelson Cruz, right? They also didn’t have enough money to keep Machado, and they gave too much money to Chris Davis, so I just gave you five or six pieces there, right? That they didn’t figure out during that era, and we’re looking at whomever cows are cursed at. You know, holiday rushman henders just goes through the list of potential guys that can get their money, let alone pitching, which you don’t think they have enough of. You don’t think they draft well enough. You and I have discussed philosophically. I don’t think they care as much about pitching, or had to care as much about pitching as they’re going to have to care about it when it comes down to it. And even in the case of, like, Cleveland, felt like they had, like the best bullpen situation, the Phillies thought they had it handled. Didn’t even make it the last week, right? So there are these good bullpen situations, and I, and I’m 100% with you, and if the Dodgers do win, or because they held it together, because it’s not going to be their starting rotation, it’s going to help them win the World
Luke Jones 27:28
Series this week. Well, and some of what you just said also lays out an argument to be made for there’s a lot of a lot of this is random in October. I mean, it is. I mean, we just said it if it were truly only about spending money and only about having the highest payroll, the Dodgers and Yankees would be making meeting in the World Series for like, the seventh time in the last decade, right? I mean, that’s kind of the space we’re talking so
Nestor Aparicio 27:50
if it’s about payroll, on a Tuesday night May, when the Orioles go to New York and play the Yankees and beat them and win the season series, doesn’t matter to one as a third of the payroll the other, like, right? I mean, right, but not okay, against the Yankees, well,
Luke Jones 28:03
and but, but this is also where you get the the contrasting thoughts in terms of, okay, how much is truly worth spending to get to October, knowing that it’s an expanded playoff field, and I assume it’s going to grow, right? It’ll probably get to a point I’m guessing they’re angling for the day is going to come where they expand by two more teams, and they get the 32 and they’re going to want 16, you know, a 16 team playoff field, and they’ll have 80 in each league. And look, that’s not next year or the year after that, but at some point, probably in the next decade, right? I mean, I think that’s fair. They’ve been eyeing markets like Nashville or potentially Montreal or maybe Charlotte, I don’t know. I mean, we’re going to see Las Vegas is going to be added to that mix here in the in the next few years. We think so, but, but the point is, when you have an expanded playoff field, and I just rattled off all the teams that, okay, high payroll teams absolutely have an advantage, but these lower payroll teams don’t necessarily. Cleveland was a couple wins away, right? I mean, the Diamondbacks were 20th last year. The Braves won it at 14th three years ago. So you look at it and you say, if you are a team like the Orioles and or the rays or Cleveland or go on the on the National League side, Milwaukee is a good example of this, where you look at this and say, okay, we can expand our payroll. But how much is it really worth it to us to overextend ourselves knowing that go look at the Dodgers. How much insane silly, absurd amounts of money that they’ve spent and to this point, and maybe that that changes in 10 days, and we’re revisiting the Dodgers winning another one, but they’ve won one world series through that this period of time where they’ve spent so much insane money, and yeah, they’ve won a. A heck of a lot of regular season games, but the Dodgers have also been known as flaming out early in the postseason a number of times. So so if you’re one of these small to mid market and you know, whatever, however you want to describe them, however, however you want to characterize it, there is a thought of how much money is. What’s the sweet spot? You know, we want to maximize our odds of getting in, but then we also know that a lot of random, randomness and variance takes over. I mean, that was always the the Billy Bean model was, let’s just get in. Like, how much can we spend? We know ownership isn’t going to give us a lot of money. How much is the least amount that we can spend to get in. And then after that, the thought, the philosophy, whether it’s right or wrong, and the truth is probably somewhere in between, right, that you can then make that run and you can capture, like,
Nestor Aparicio 30:55
I will make it up around the trading deadline by having a weekend we can deal and get a bullpen arm and get whatever our need is at the time. Right? One thing I think we’ve learned over the history of baseball, as much as we beat each other up March 28 about who’s coming north with the team, the amount of players you need and the amount of players you need named Elon Jimenez and Eloy Jimenez, and the players that were Rogers, these guys that were going to come up and be a part of it in some way, um, whether you want them to be or not being through injury attrition, wherever it’s going to be, you’re, you’re, you’re going to want an adjustment period in the middle of the season. That’s what the trading deadlines for, is to retool. And when you win that, as much as we talk about it for weeks, you’re like, well, that shouldn’t be the thing that wins it. That’s the thing that can certainly augment it and and can certainly right your wrongs. If you have a system and money right, if you have money and guys at double A and a ball that are prospects, you can find a situation. You can find a seller.
Luke Jones 32:00
You can I think that’s becoming more complicated now, though, and I think we saw that with, I mean, think how much talk there was about the kid for the White Sox crochet and and Tariq, who ended up pitching in the postseason because the Tigers went on this unbelievable run. But that just that’s that speaks to it, though, right? I mean, the Tigers were sellers. Keep in mind, they traded to Jack Flaherty. Think about it. The Tigers were in the postseason. They sold Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers. So with an expanded playoff field, I think everything you just said about the trade deadline applies, but I think that that that scope is narrowing in terms of an opportunity. I think we saw you can take
Nestor Aparicio 32:41
on payroll. I’m saying, Get a picture. You can that’s where you can take on ten million and for Zach Eflin, right? Exactly. It’s not going to be but, but that’s where it is a little bit different.
Luke Jones 32:53
I mean, I, I don’t want to get ahead of myself, because I might be leaving one out. But you know, generally speaking, you’re not going to see an absurd contract change hands at the trade deadline, you’ll see someone who has a year or two left on the on their deal, like Evelyn, right? I mean, that that was real money that the Orioles took on there, but, but not franchise altering. That’s, you know, it’s not like it was a Chris Davis contract, right? So, so, so, you know, you have some of that. And look, I mean, to go back to the Billy Beane example, look how many times over the years that the A’s, even in the midst of a season, they would take on a contract and you’d say, Wow, wait. Are the A’s actually not going to be a bottom feeder, only to flip them then two months later when the season ended? So but they would have an opportunity to do that in the midst of the season. But that, again, that’s where I said things have you know, this third wild card is complicated things in that way. So look, the super heavyweights payroll wise, are always going to be that. And even in the NFL, you still have teams that spend to the cap every year, and you have teams like the Bengals who don’t, and teams that exhaust every resource that they have, whether it’s training, nutrition, coaching staff, training staff, all those different things, you’re always going to have teams, whether you have a a salary cap or a luxury tax threshold or whatever your system might be, or there’s no system at all, you’re always going to have teams that are going to spend to the limit, and then you’re going to have teams who Don’t. And that doesn’t mean that you have to be a team that spends to the absolute limit, but if you’re not, your margin for error is smaller, and that’s the difference here. I mean, the Dodgers are in the position that they’re in because they lost all these guys, yet they still had the farm system and money or to add payroll and go get Jack Flaherty, right? And it was a rental, you know, it’s not like some major investment, but what they gave up for him is more than what other teams were willing to give up, right? And, I mean, that’s, that’s part of it as well. That’s why I said it’s not just about money. You got to be smart, smart and rich there. There’s been the. Angels are a great example of rich, but they haven’t been smart, and you’ve seen how much money they’ve spent, they have nothing to show for it. I mean, nothing to show for it. Not talking about 20 years ago, when they beat the Giants, so you can have that. I mean the Mets, until June, they were looking like another team. Oh, look at how the Mets have spent absurd money, and they were bad last year to the point that buck got, got fired, and they looked like they were going nowhere this year. And okay, they they regrouped, but it was still done in kind of an unorthodox way. So
Nestor Aparicio 35:32
you always win after Buck leaves. I don’t understand, right? So, so I will always,
Luke Jones 35:37
at the end of the day, I will always take being smart. However, if you’re smart and you have ownership that will spend on top of that, then, boy, you just you leave yourself so many outs. I always like the poker analogy. You know when you’re talking about a poker hand. And you know whether you have a flush, draw, straight, draw, whatever your hand might be, and you know that there are so many cards in the deck that can improve your hand and make sure you’re the winning hand. These teams that can spend, they just have more outs. I mean, they have more resources to make sure that, hey, if plan A goes wrong, we got Plan B. If that goes wrong, we’ve got enough for Plan C. And if that goes wrong, there’s probably a Plan D, a team like the Orioles, or a team like the rays, or a team like Cleveland or Milwaukee, or go down the list, even some teams, you know, I just mentioned, some of these teams are teams that are in the postseason regularly, but they need they they’re much more of the Lightning in a Bottle kind of scenario, because if they have injuries to the wrong guys, you know, the wrong spots. You know, they have a, you know, whatever the deficiency might be in their farm system. You know, for example, like, like we’ve mentioned, with the Orioles, you know, they don’t, they’re not deep in pitching talent in their farm system. Whereas position player wise, it’s been a different story. So, you know, they need things to to go right. The difference is the Dodgers and the Yankees and, you know, the Mets or the Phillies. You know, these teams don’t need everything to go perfectly for them, because generally, they have the resources to go out and augment if they need to. That’s not doesn’t mean it’s insurmountable. And I don’t want to hear about woe is me, and I’m not you’re not suggesting that either, but it just speaks to you got to be really smart. So what my hope for the Orioles is is with new ownership, David Rubenstein is willing and able and ready to spend that doesn’t mean, you know, I don’t even know what the scenario would be, that there would be a scenario where they take their payroll to $200 million you know that they double their payroll this offseason.
Nestor Aparicio 37:41
Well, they could sign Juan Soto. That’s the thing we’ve never done around here. You know what I mean? Like, I mean, sure they could do that, but,
Luke Jones 37:47
but Juan Soto alone isn’t raising your payroll to that level. Is my point. My point is, augment, make additions, make some signings here. Don’t, don’t make it that. Oh, wow. We’re gonna have to leave ourselves really weak and vulnerable at this spot, and then hope at the trade deadline that we can answer that. And that’s kind of sort of how they proceeded with their bullpen. You know, I think their bullpen right now, just to use it as an example, if you pick up Sir Anthony Dominguez is $8 million option, which that’s pricey. I’m not saying I love that, but Felix Batista coming back. Dominguez is now my eighth inning guy, which means canoe can now be my seventh inning guy, which means that Danny coulam and CNL Perez can now be and Jacob Webb can now be sixth and seventh inning guys. For me, that’s the makings of a much better looking bullpen on paper. Obviously, Felix has the big Felix has to come back and look like big Felix, and there’s always a little bit a little bit of unknown there. But, you know, my point is, there’s an investment that isn’t going to cripple you. But if you bring, if you keep Sir Anthony Dominguez in the mix, then that bullpen is looking way better on paper. You know, just adding Batista back into the mix, let alone any other moves on the fringes that you might make, that we know they’re going to do, because that’s what Mike Elias does. So you know, that’s just one it’s one element of it. But are you going to be more willing to do things like that? You know that we saw it at the trade deadline, and we and we complimented them on that. I mean, they took on E for next year, Aloy Jimenez, who did not work out, but, you know, they took on a little bit of money there, or potentially were going to take on money there, you know, so, so, you know, Dominguez, I mean, I mentioned him, so you, you have, you’re in a position where, you know, the payroll, I think, finished the year, 24th 23rd something like that. You know, they right around. I think they’re, you know, their year end 40 man roster was just over $100 million you know, I mean, that that’s what we’re talking about here. I mean, that’s, that’s $100 million payroll is now considered below average. I mean, that’s where we are now. I mean, it’s considerably. Higher where than where it was two years ago for the Orioles. But now, you know, what can you do? And look, it doesn’t have to be Corbin burns. But if it’s not Corbin burns, it needs to go. You need to go get another starter. You know, whether that’s Blake Snell or some other Zach Eflin type of guy that that’s available out there, you know? You know, I’ve talked about, I’ve never been a guy that talks about $200 million contracts for pitchers, but you did hear me a couple off season to go say when I really liked how the Rangers went out and signed Nathan of Aldi. I liked that deal. And look at how that worked out for them. You know, he was a prominent member of a World Series winner. So there are always moves to make. You know, it doesn’t have to be the biggest fish, but you are gonna have to go out and get a fish or two, right? I mean, at least needs to be that you would think. And, you know, whatever happens with Santander again, I don’t think it necessarily has to be that you resign him, but if it’s just, oh, say goodbye to him and you, and you hand that job to Heston kerstadt, and that’s that. And you don’t you’re not doing anything else, anywhere else. Then, to me, you’re still relying too much on your young guys, and I still would like to see them bring in a for me, my preference would probably be more of a right handed bat to add to the mix that veteran player, maybe someone who has some postseason experience. Again, I don’t know who that is off the top of my head. But those guys are out there. The postseason is expansive now, so you have a lot, many more players out there who have postseason experience. I mean, that’s just the reality now, when you have four rounds of postseason now. So you know there, there are many ways. There are many paths here. It is not all. The end. All is be all must be resigning Corbin burns, or must be resigning Anthony Santander. But to your point, if the plan is those guys walk out the door and you’re just saying, Well, we’re just going to fill within internal options that’s not going to inspire any confidence, that’s not going to sell this, this brand, to people and get them excited in the off season, because, let’s face it, the second half did some damage in that way, not, not irreversible, not not something that can’t be overcome. But people were disappointed. That’s a big reason why they didn’t show up for the wild card series. It’s because they played mediocre, sub 500 baseball for three months. I mean, that was a factor. It absolutely was. So what can you do this off season to for me, it’s not even like, oh, make a splash, you know? Like, it’s not just make a move for the sake of it. It’s go make a move that you really have conviction about. And saying, Man, this will make us a lot better. Yeah, it’s gonna raise our payroll, but it’s not gonna cripple us. You know, we’re not talking about taking the payroll up to two $50 million but, well, that’s
Nestor Aparicio 42:41
my point on Juan Soto, that’s my point. My point for whatever they want to afford. Take on the deal, take off the value of the deal. Say we have a superstar gunner, if you are a superstar, and when you’re ready to negotiate, we we spend real money. And by the way, meet your new teammate. Middle the order going to protect you. And so, so we’re all polyvid next October, anybody here that would say that idea,
Luke Jones 43:04
let me be very clear, if you want to go sign Juan Soto, I’m perfectly fine with that. I put it this way, whatever Juan Soto is going to get on the market, which 500,000,600 whatever it is, whatever the Yankees or who, or the Dodgers or the Mets or whoever ultimately gets him. Because I, I certainly am not expecting the Orioles to do that, but if they did, I would like that a heck of a lot more than whatever Corbin Burns is going to get ultimately, I would absolutely eagerly sign up for that more just because I just think it’s a better investment. Because I, I’m just, you can call me a wimp if you want. That’s fine. I am absolutely leery of giving any pitcher that kind of money that I expect Burns is ultimately going to get. I just I’d much rather play in the realm of deals that of Aldi EFF. I’ll give you another name I’d throw out there, and he’s not going to get what Burns is going to get, I don’t think, but he’s certainly not going to be cheap. I’d be much more intrigued about exploring Blake Snell before Corbin burns in terms and, and he’s going to get a nine figure contract too, but I don’t think it’s necessarily going to be a seven year deal like burns and and Scott Boris are going to seek, I don’t think, I mean, who knows, and only takes one team but, but I don’t know. I mean, I just, I’m fine with going out and signing starting pitching, but I’d much, my personal belief is I’d feel much more comfortable in that second and third tier of starting pitchers, rather than that, that top of market, seven year deal, I’d rather, if I’m going to sign Corbin burns, I’d rather give them a three year deal and absolutely blow them out of the water from a average annual value standpoint, you know, instead of a seven year deal, you know, I’d give them three years, $120 million or something like that, rather than six. Seven years at, you know, two, 200 plus, whatever it is. So that that’s just, that’s just my personal preference. Though, some people sitting here are probably yelling at me, saying, Luke, you don’t like Corbin burns. I mean, it’s just, it’s not disliking Corbin burns. It’s just knowing what the reality of this, of pitching is, and to the point, going back to the top, the beginning of our discussion, talking about the Yankees, dodgers, Mets, the Phillies, these teams that are at the very top, they have a bigger margin for error. The problem with the Orioles is, yeah, you can give Corbin burns that deal. They absolutely could, but heaven forbid if he gets hurt, they don’t have the flexibility to pivot in the way that those other franchises that are the biggest markets do. So again, smaller margin for error. So you’ve got to hedge your bets a little bit. And that’s why I said, for me, I’d be much more in that, you know, that second tier pitching market to to go out and see if you can get another Zach Eflin, you know, type, get someone like that to add to the mix. Who I get, it isn’t going to be a bona fide ace, but could certainly profile as a top half of the rotation guy to add to Eflin, Grayson, Rodriguez. And what you hope, not that you’re expecting, but what you hope maybe Kyle Brad is the second half of the season. You know, maybe Tyler wells the second half of the season. So you know, they’ve got work to do. There’s no doubt. But I’ll also continue to to remind with everything that went wrong this year in the second half, still won 91 games, still made the playoffs, still we’re in a position where just score a couple stinking runs and they would have at least been playing in the Division Series. So you know they’re it’s one of those deals where they’re not so far away, but they’re at least far away enough that, hey, you’ve got some work to do this off season to get yourselves back on track. And I’m hoping that ownership is ready to step up. I’m cautiously optimistic that they will. And now it’s just, if that’s the case that it’s on my Goliath, hey, go out and make the move, or two or three moves that can optimize this thing, because still a lot going for them. At the end of the day, Luke Jones is here. He
Nestor Aparicio 47:12
is Baltimore, Luke, I will say this. I’ll leave you with this in regard to me saying Juan Soto, and I would say this to Katie Griggs or to Mr. Rubenstein, if I see them, I’ll be writing to both of them regularly. I have a feeling, but why can’t we have nice things? And is that is the prerequisite of having nice things, we have to buy the playoff tickets and come down. Or, you know what comes first? And in San Diego, they didn’t think that they could sign players, and then they started doing it and started selling jerseys, and started getting people riled up, and started marketing the team. And next thing you know, they they have a thing in San Diego that I don’t know if it financially supports it or not, sidler’s dead, the new ownership what they would want to do, what they’re going to find, but these guys are Mr. Money Bags. This isn’t John A and mama a watching every paper clip, because that’s where the old man was right. Like, these are billionaires that came into this and they want to feel Mr. Big pants. I mean, it’s obvious there’s an ego level here for David Rubenstein that I’ve witnessed the first six months. And I’m a guy here with the larger ego of the two of us. So I think I’m fair to say that at 56, years old, I can evaluate this that they didn’t buy this just to get richer. They bought this to win. So if you’re going to be Mr. Big pants and the modern day Steinbrenner out of benevolence or your altruistic civic concerns and philanthropy and whatever the philanthropy begins when one Soto is available. Well, I buy my cigars on the top shelf. I buy my my hotel rooms on the top shelf. I buy my liquor. I buy everything on the top shelf. But we’re going to do salisbury steak here when it comes to baseball. But I don’t know. I don’t know. I’m throwing this out because it’s new. For the first time in all the years I’ve been here, and I’ll leave you with this. And so this is where the smart ass in me comes out when I start to talk baseball with you, because I will be watching all these games this week. Awful announcing tweeted out on that God forsaken Tommy Twitter X thing. Rob Manfred wants to nationalize MLB media strategy, eliminate blackouts. That helps you in Pennsylvania, you get the Orio gains helps on buddy hells. You pay one thing, whatever that one thing is, we all sat here Sunday and watch football games, and we’re all going to sit around on Monday night watch the the Ravens play, and not put ESPN plus on, because I don’t even what the hell it is, and I wouldn’t worry about the chargers and the Cardinals at nine o’clock if I did right? So I retweeted that and said, wake me when Mr. Manfred wants to nationalize the payroll, because that’s the original garden of you know. Sin garden, the Adam and Eve back from the roots of the roots of the roots that baseball didn’t get it right because of the unions, because of the bulls and the bears. And I don’t mean the teams. I mean, I don’t mean Reinsdorf either, but the whole pack of them never got this right. I bitched about this in 1992 when we were the winners, we had the stadium. We were spending the money. The Yankees weren’t spending money. Then, like the Red Sox weren’t spending money. Then we had a ballpark that was printing money before media even printed it. And Angelos came in here three decades later. And the story you and I just did 52 minutes, essentially on, oh, the Dodgers and the Yankees spent the most there in the World Series. You don’t have to, but it’s a good idea. Fair enough nationalize the payroll when you do that, when you, when you, when you give the Oriole fans, for the first time in my in my adulthood, a chance to believe we could actually sign the best free agents. We believe that 95, 678, because we saw it. This team shot in the in the fast lane. Since then, it’s been, quite frankly, with, I mean, Bucha is what I would say, or ha shit, as Phil Jackman would say when Angelos would say, we offered machine affair. We wanted mark to share. I didn’t want to be here. Nobody wants to be with me. Nobody want we’re a small market. Let’s move the fences back. Move them up. You know, I heard it all for 30 years. This is the new thing, which is why I’m really interested in it, because it really does come down, though. How are you going to shop? How are you going to spend? What’s our expectation? One Soto, I don’t care if he gets a billion dollars. You guys can afford it. You want to win? Do you want to build something here? Or do you want to play games and play the small market game that Pittsburgh plays Kansas City go through this you ask whether they’re going to be the Cardinals two weeks ago, right? Like I’m asking, they can’t be the Astros because they don’t have that market. The Astros did something unique after being turds since Jose Cruz and not Nolan Ryan, but they did something there because they they have people, Hispanic people, people are like baseball. They got good weather. They like they come downtown there. The place is packed. They’ve done it for a decade now, where’s this thing going to be in? 2034 by the way, it’s got my new driver’s license. 2032 it says on my driver’s license. I’m like, oh my god, 2032 sounds like Jetsons. Doesn’t sound like Jetsons if I’m Mike Elias and I’m trying to figure out a payroll, because you’re going to be paying one. So don’t 2032 if you sign in, paying gunner Anderson at 2032 if you want him. So what’s the plan? And how is it different? And where is the plan? You guys have had seven months or billionaires. You got the smart cookie coming in from Seattle who’s worked in baseball. You got everybody sort of rooting for you a little bit sort of, what’s the plan? And this is the time for that. So Luke Jones and I will be monitoring that, as well as game one and Game Two and game three and game four and game five. And the Ravens going to Cleveland this week, and we’re going to be doing oysters and crab cakes, one of my favorite people with Scotty McCusker. Everybody knows that we lost Gunny a dozen years ago, Ocean City tragedy. We’ve had a lot of crab cakes, a lot of Berea quesadilla. My wife would tell you at the nacho mamas in Towson. We’re going to be at mama’s on the half shell on Friday. I have the Raven scratch offs from the Maryland lottery giveaway. Uh, our friends at Jiffy Lube multi care send Luke out on the road to practice all week. It’s not all week short week this week getting ready for Cleveland. We have the whole Deshaun Watson mess and the Jameis Winston thing and the aftermath of ravens and bucks on Monday night. But plenty of baseball around here as well. Maryland oyster tour is up and running on a daily basis. Love to my man, Ray Bachmann. He’s a part of day six, day seven this week. And there is a GoFundMe page if you love Ray, if you love his trivia, if you love this sports radio work here as my chemo Sabi support, Ray and our friends at Liberty pure solutions are supporting the oyster tour. As our our friends at Curia wellness, I dusted off my orange Orioles shirt. Luke before the segment, I have a Dodgers hat. Everybody has seen me in it. I know where it is. I just didn’t grab it before the segment. But I’ll be wearing my Dodger at this week, because I’ve done a lot of things in my life. I have never worn anything that says Steelers on it, although I did wave a terrible talent in 95 Super Bowl, 96 Super Bowl, um, I’ve never worn any gear that said Steelers on it. I have never even pretended, even when I like Chuck knoblach and Tino Martinez and Roger Clemens, and they were all like good, decent guys to deal with back in the day with the with the Yankees. I’ve never worn anything Yankees, and that’s not going to change this week. I am Nestor. He is Luke. We are wnst. Am 1570 tassel, Baltimore, and we never stop talking. Beat the Yankees. Don’t let the Yankees win. It’s the world’s. Series, Baltimore, positive, stay with us. Okay.
