The Ravens were 3-3 and seemingly at a crossroads when they last met Cleveland two months ago.
Starting with that grind of a 23-20 victory over the Browns in Week 7, Baltimore has won six of its last seven games to strengthen its playoff odds and remain a tiebreaker ahead of Cincinnati in the AFC North. But it’s rarely looked easy and the schedule has been forgiving along the way with the Ravens playing seven straight opponents sporting losing records.
That trend continues Saturday with a trip to Cleveland, but the 5-8 Browns now have Deshaun Watson at quarterback. The three-time Pro Bowl quarterback has struggled in his first real game action in nearly two years, but he’ll be making his home debut in front of a crowd that would love nothing more than to beat the Ravens, who will again be without star quarterback Lamar Jackson.
It’s time to go on the record as these teams meet for the 48th time with Baltimore holding a massive 35-12 advantage as well as a 16-7 edge in Cleveland. John Harbaugh’s team will be seeking its second season sweep in the last three years while the Browns will aim for a split for the fourth time in the last five seasons.
Below are five predictions for Sunday:
1. Baltimore will hold Cleveland to 3.5 yards per carry. Why would this mark be significant? The Ravens haven’t allowed more than 3.3 yards per carry in a game since the Browns gained 4.7 yards per rush in Week 7. Since the Roquan Smith acquisition and the return of Tyus Bowser, the run defense has been downright suffocating, which is bad news for a Browns offense that uncharacteristically struggled to run the ball against the Bengals last week. You’d assume the presence of the more mobile Watson over previous starter Jacoby Brissett would put more stress on opposing fronts, but that just hasn’t been the case thus far.
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2. Mark Andrews will catch his first touchdown since Week 6. Since being held without a catch for only the second time in his career in the Oct. 23 meeting with Cleveland, the two-time Pro Bowl tight end has averaged just 43.2 receiving yards per game, a stretch that included him missing time with shoulder and knee injuries. Perhaps he isn’t totally healthy or it’s the effect of facing more double teams, but the Ravens must get Andrews going if they have any hope of making noise in January. He had plenty of production with Huntley at quarterback late last season, so that shouldn’t be an excuse either.
3. Watson will throw for a touchdown and run for another. Cleveland’s offense has been pretty awful since turning to Watson, but he showed improvement in a losing effort at Cincinnati last week and has plenty of weapons. The Browns will likely have issues running the ball to the degree they’d prefer — which may prompt more designed Watson runs — but timely takeaways have elevated the relatively underwhelming performance of Baltimore’s pass defense in recent weeks, meaning Cleveland shouldn’t shy away from being aggressive like in Week 7 when Brissett averaged 9.6 yards per pass attempt. Then again, windy conditions could disrupt both passers and prompt these quarterbacks to use their legs even more.
4. Patrick Ricard will find the end zone for the first time this season. The three-time Pro Bowl fullback catches strays on social media because of the persistent criticism of offensive coordinator Greg Roman and the passing game, but that doesn’t change the reality that Ricard is having an excellent year. Only seven offensive snaps shy of setting a new single-season career high, Ricard makes a dramatic impact as a run blocker, but he’s also set career highs in receptions (11) and carries (six). Considering he scored a touchdown in each of the previous three seasons, Ricard is due for one with Saturday being an opportune time.
5. The Ravens will win for the seventh time in eight games in a 20-16 final. I’ve been pretty awful picking Ravens games with a 6-7 mark this season, which probably means you should be concerned about another AFC North road game that feels much closer to a coin flip with Jackson sidelined once again. But I’m just not convinced a bad Cleveland defense that’s been ravaged by injuries at linebacker is going to hold up as well against the run as it did limiting the Ravens to 3.6 yards per carry in Week 7. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards should receive a fairly even share of the carries as Baltimore is able to impose its run-heavy will in a fashion similar to what we saw in Pittsburgh last week. That won’t lead to style points or a blowout victory, but the running game and another strong defensive effort will be enough to improve to 10-4, which would be impressive with Jackson having missed nearly three full games.
