This has been a hell of a week for the Ravens.
The fallout of a loss to their biggest rival, a devastating injury to one of their best players, and the trade deadline all took a backseat to concerns about COVID-19 after All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey tested positive for the virus and seven other players were deemed “high risk” close contacts, forcing them to isolate during the practice week and limiting their preparation to Zoom meetings and individual workouts at their homes. Even with no one else testing positive through Saturday afternoon, the week was a reminder of just how fragile this 2020 season really is.
Still, Indianapolis isn’t going to feel sorry for them as the 5-2 Colts aim to take control of the AFC South with a third straight victory. The Ravens are trying to avoid consecutive losses for the first time since last September.
It’s time to go on the record as the Ravens and Colts meet for the 13th time in the regular season with Indianapolis leading 8-4 and holding a 5-0 home mark as well as a 2-1 record in postseason encounters. However, including the playoffs, Baltimore has won three of the last four meetings dating back to 2011.
Below are five predictions for Sunday:
1. J.K. Dobbins will lead the way in carries and rushing yards and score his first touchdown since Week 1. Forty percent of the rookie’s season rushing yardage has come on three runs — 44, 34, and 28 yards — but that’s exactly why you want to give the second-round pick the ball with veteran Mark Ingram expected to miss his second straight game with a high ankle sprain. Coming off a career-high 113 rushing yards against Pittsburgh, Dobbins is a home-run hitter in the backfield, which will be needed going against the league’s second-ranked run defense. An offense with a reshuffled line won’t rush for 265 yards again, but the running game will remain effective enough with Dobbins leading the way. A 6.7 yards per carry average speaks for itself.
2. DeShon Elliott will register his first career interception to put Baltimore on a short field. If not for the fact that the Colts are dealing with health concerns at wide receiver — including the expected absence of four-time Pro Bowl selection T.Y. Hilton — and tight end, the Ravens’ secondary situation would be rapidly approaching panic territory with Humphrey out, Jimmy Smith questionable with a bad back, and Tavon Young and Anthony Averett already on injured reserve. Wink Martindale still can’t be comfortable leaning on the likes of Terrell Bonds and Khalil Dorsey in sub packages if Indianapolis tries to spread the Ravens out as the Steelers did in the second half last week, which is why Sunday is a good time for Elliott to make a game-changing play on the ball. The third-year safety has been very solid, but picking off veteran quarterback Philip Rivers will elevate his standing in his first season as a starter.
3. Nyheim Hines will catch a touchdown and be the leading receiver for Indianapolis. The secondary has sparked more discussion this week, but inside linebacker is a greater concern for Week 9 with veteran L.J. Fort out with a finger injury and rookies Patrick Queen and Malik Harrison missing the entire practice week isolating as close contacts to Humphrey. Other than Fort, this group has struggled in pass coverage while Hines has received the second-highest receiving grade among running backs from Pro Football Focus and has caught 133 passes and five touchdowns in 39 career games. We’ve seen this blitz-happy defense lose some receiving backs in space at different points this season, and Hines’ great speed will be a challenge with Rivers aiming to get rid of the ball quickly. Backup Chris Board has flashed in coverage in the dime package, so he could be an under-the-radar key in slowing Hines and fellow Colts running back Jonathan Taylor as receivers.
4. Lamar Jackson will play turnover-free football while throwing for a touchdown and running for 65 yards. Explaining a loss doesn’t get much simpler than your quarterback committing four turnovers as Jackson did against the Steelers last week, but the reigning MVP has committed multiple turnovers in back-to-back games just once in his career, illustrating how effectively he’s taken care of the ball. John Harbaugh acknowledged Jackson has to “tighten up his game,” but the injury-plagued offensive line and offensive coordinator Greg Roman need to help him against a Indianapolis defense that’s been robust against both the run and pass in 2020. All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard will be eager to keep Jackson’s legs in check, making that one of the best matchups of the game between two young stars.
5. The Ravens will win 24-17 in a game that won’t be fancy. We’ve discussed theories why the Baltimore offense hasn’t looked the same, ranging from the departures of Marshal Yanda and Hayden Hurst to the coaching staff making a concerted effort to become more of a passing team to inevitable regression to the mean after a historic 2019 season. But this isn’t the kind of game in which the Ravens can afford to mess around as they now face an uphill climb in both the AFC North and the chase for the top seed in the conference. With All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley and starting right guard Tyre Phillips now on injured reserve, concerns about pass protection only increase against a tough Colts front led by defensive tackle DeForest Buckner. Turnovers aside, the Ravens should be encouraged by last week’s ability to impose their will running the football against a Pittsburgh rush defense that had been excellent. For better or worse, the running game remains this team’s identity, and that’s what the Ravens will ride to a close win lacking frills.
