The words have stung the Ravens for 12 months, through both the successes and trials presented on and off the field in 2020.
“We’ve been here two years in a row, and we’ve lost,” star cornerback Marlon Humphrey said the night of the stunning home playoff loss to Tennessee last January. “I think you’ve got to look yourself in the mirror, and I think this team right now, its identity is to get in the playoffs and choke. It is what it is. That’s just the hard truth.”
Until now, there was nothing John Harbaugh’s team could do about it other than navigate the long, thankless journey to the next opportunity. It required five straight wins to close the regular season and overcoming a disastrous November and massive COVID-19 outbreak. The Titans again standing in the way was never a requirement, but it sure feels fitting if these Ravens are to finally get over the January hump in Nashville on Sunday.
The journey to wild-card weekend has been far more difficult than a 2019 in which the Ravens reigned over the football world for the better part of three months with a 12-game winning streak and cruised to a 14-2 record, a first-round bye, and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But star quarterback Lamar Jackson and Baltimore are now playing their best football of the season with many beginning to feel those same vibes from 2019 — up until that Titans game, of course.
“We’re going straight into it [with] heads up high, but our eyes focused, knowing the task at hand,” Jackson said. “Like I always say, we’ve just got to finish — that’s all. That’s the biggest thing. That’s the key for us — just finishing. We’ve been saying that for the last few weeks, and that’s what we’ve been doing, and we’ve been having a lot of success.
“Just go into the game with the same mindset — everyone do their part and finish. I feel we’ll be fine.”
It’s time to go on the record as Baltimore and Tennessee meet in the playoffs for the fifth time this century with the teams having split the first four and the road team winning each of them. Of course, the Titans have won the last two games against the Ravens, which included their overtime win at M&T Bank Stadium in late November in addition to last January’s playoff clash in Baltimore.
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Below are five predictions for Sunday afternoon:
1. J.K. Dobbins will score a touchdown on a fourth-and-1 as part of Baltimore’s 200-yard rushing day. This is my bold call of the week after two failed fourth-and-1 tries sunk the Ravens in last year’s playoff loss. I never disagreed with those decisions despite the results as that aggressiveness was part of the Ravens’ DNA and they’d gone 8-for-8 on fourth-and-1 situations that season. Baltimore will face another fourth-and-1 in the first half in which Harbaugh won’t blink in going for it, but Greg Roman will call for the rookie leading all NFL running backs in yards per carry (6.0) to get the ball instead of Jackson or Gus Edwards. The defense-challenged Titans are even worse defending the pass, but the Ravens aren’t going to deviate from what they do best on Sunday.
2. Corey Davis and Jonnu Smith will catch touchdowns for the Titans. This week’s discussion has been dominated by how the Ravens will slow the league’s second-ranked running game, but Tennessee ranks seventh in the NFL in yards per passing attempt and fourth in passing efficiency, according to Football Outsiders. Baltimore allowed 217 passing yards in the second half and overtime of the Week 11 loss to the Titans with Davis and Pro Bowl wide receiver A.J. Brown combining for nine catches for 175 yards after being blanked over the first two quarters. And that was with Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, and Jimmy Smith all available and healthy. There’s also the concern of Ravens linebackers being caught in between against a rock-solid group of Titans tight ends who share the wealth in terms of production. Ryan Tannehill is going to make plays through the air.
3. Derrick Henry will run for under 50 yards in the second half. Calais Campbell and Brandon Williams will be anchoring the defensive line this time around, but expecting the Ravens to completely shut down a historic 2,000-yard rusher isn’t realistic either, especially after run-heavy Cleveland had success against them back in Week 14. Henry is going to get his touches and yards, but the key is to not allow the 247-pound back to take over the game in the second half. Over his last two meetings with the Ravens, Henry has averaged 6.9 yards per carry and gained 235 yards after intermission, a credit to his talents and the Titans offensive line as well as an indicator of Baltimore wearing down. Wink Martindale hopes increased playing time for the likes of Justin Madubuike and Justin Ellis in the absence of Campbell and Williams over the second half of the season will pay off as Sunday’s game progresses, but the trio of Campbell, Williams, and Derek Wolfe are paid handsomely for this exact challenge.
4. A Marlon Humphrey interception will thwart a Tennessee scoring effort. The Pro Bowl cornerback led the NFL with a franchise-record eight forced fumbles and had a team-high 11 pass breakups, but Humphrey hasn’t registered an interception since the season opener, which seems almost impossible for Baltimore’s best defensive player. One of the reasons the Titans have had such a successful season despite their defensive struggles has been their ability to take care of the football with an AFC-low 12 giveaways this season. Much of the focus in last year’s playoff loss was on the failures of the Ravens offense, but the defense didn’t make a single game-changing play to swing the momentum. You need your best players to rise to the occasion in January, and Humphrey will do that in a critical spot.
5. Lamar Jackson will play like himself to lead the Ravens to a 30-23 playoff victory. Nothing needs to be said about Jackson that hasn’t already been driven into the ground over this last calendar year. The 24-year-old reigning MVP needs to play better than he did in either of his first two playoff losses, but he doesn’t need to throw for five touchdowns or run for 150 yards for the Ravens to win on Sunday. Jackson can’t be expected to do it by himself despite the narrative from last year’s playoff game that often overlooks the other shortcomings on both sides of the ball in that 28-12 loss to the Titans. Baltimore just needs Jackson to be the “typical” version of himself, which has been far more spectacular than not over these last two seasons. Jackson taking care of the football, stressing the Titans defense with his legs, and making the open throws afforded to him should be more than enough for the Ravens to win their first playoff game in six years and for critics to find something else to nitpick when it comes to Jackson. The road team will prevail once again in this rivalry.
