The Ravens have had plenty of time to think about their humbling 41-17 loss to Cincinnati before the bye week.
Starting with Sunday’s tilt against a 3-4 Minnesota Vikings team desperate for a win, the Ravens must prove whether the blowout defeat to the Bengals was more of a surprising blip or the point when their problems could no longer be ignored. There’s no shortage of urgency for 5-2 Baltimore to take advantage of these next three games against teams with losing records before embarking on the final stretch of seven games against opponents currently .500 or better.
It’s time to go on the record as these teams meet for the seventh time with the series tied 3-3 and the Ravens enjoying a 3-1 mark at M&T Bank Stadium. In the John Harbaugh era, Baltimore is 10-3 in games immediately following the regular-season bye, but that includes the 28-24 loss to Pittsburgh last November.
Below are five predictions for Sunday:
1. Lamar Jackson will throw multiple touchdowns passes for just the second time this season. With all the talk about this offense pushing the ball downfield more and entering Week 9 ranked ninth in passing yards per game, it’s surprising to note Jackson has thrown more than one touchdown in a contest only once, which was the comeback win over Indianapolis. The star quarterback has been way too good passing the ball for that trend to continue. Minnesota does rank a sneaky third in the NFL in pass defense efficiency, but the recent losses of No. 1 cornerback Patrick Peterson and Pro Bowl edge rusher Danielle Hunter leave a more vulnerable group that was bested by Dallas backup quarterback Cooper Rush last Sunday. It only gets more challenging this week.
2. Tyler Conklin will become the latest tight end to beat Baltimore for a touchdown. Much like Cincinnati’s C.J. Uzomah a couple weeks ago, Conklin doesn’t enter this game with standout statistics, but he runs plenty of routes in Minnesota’s passing game and the Ravens are 22nd in pass defense efficiency against tight ends and are surrendering the NFL’s most receiving yards per game to the position, according to Football Outsiders. Though Marlon Humphrey and Anthony Averett will certainly have their hands full trying to contain the dynamic receiver duo of Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen, Conklin is capable of taking advantage of open space down the middle of the Ravens defense.
3. Ty’Son Williams will have his most productive rushing day since Week 2. Eric DeCosta didn’t trade for a running back and Latavius Murray remains sidelined with an ankle injury, meaning the Ravens will again lean on some combination of Devonta Freeman, Le’Veon Bell, and Williams. The 2020 undrafted free agent’s flaws have been discussed and no one is suggesting he’s a future Pro Bowl selection, but Williams has more burst than either veteran and needs to become a bigger part of the plans if the non-Jackson ground game is going to improve. The Vikings have been better stopping the run in recent weeks, but they still surrender 4.6 yards per carry, rank 20th in run defense efficiency, and won’t have ex-Raven Michael Pierce at nose tackle.
4. Vikings running back Dalvin Cook will eclipse 100 total yards and find the end zone once. You can understand the preference for running the ball with a talent like Cook in the old Gary Kubiak wide-zone system — now coordinated by son Klint – but the Vikings rank just 28th in rushing efficiency. Still, Baltimore’s tackling problems aren’t a secret, nose tackle Brandon Williams isn’t 100% due to a shoulder injury, and Wink Martindale’s defense hasn’t encountered a ton of zone blocking in 2021, which are reasons to keep feeding the two-time Pro Bowl back in hopes of eventually breaking a long run or two. You also wonder if this is the week the Vikings dust off Cook’s receiving ability, something that’s all but disappeared since his early-season ankle injury. Why wouldn’t Kirk Cousins aim to get him the ball in the open field against a defense with tackling issues?
5. The “Jackson Factor” will hold true again as the Ravens come out of the bye with a 27-20 victory. The 3-4 Vikings arguably have played better football on the road than at home this season and have more than enough talent to win Sunday if Harbaugh’s team is sleepy coming out of the bye, but even a talented defensive mind like Mike Zimmer — who will deploy tricks and deception to trip up this offense here and there — doesn’t know exactly what’s in store in his first meeting with Jackson. The 24-year-old quarterback is an amazing 24-2 when starting against a team for the first time, illustrating just how difficult it is to prepare for one of the most dynamic skill sets in NFL history. On the flip side, Cousins and the Minnesota coaching staff haven’t shown the kind of killer instinct to pull out a tight game against a playoff contender. This game will be close, but I’ll pick the team with the better quarterback, the better head coach, and the better poise.
