We know the Orioles lack a true ace.
Opening Day starter Zach Eflin would profile better as a No. 3 starter for many contenders.
The rest of Baltimore’s healthy arms look like fourth and fifth starters at this point in their respective careers. It’s certainly not a group that’s going to strike fear into the hearts of their opponents early in the season, let alone thinking ahead to October.
On Friday, general manager Mike Elias added to the bottom-heavy rotation by signing right-hander Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $5.25 million contract. The 37-year-old is the third starting pitcher 35 or older — joining Tomoyuki Sugano (35) and Charlie Morton (41) — to sign with the Orioles this offseason, but there’s familiarity with what Gibson brings after he made 33 starts and posted a 4.73 ERA while winning 15 games for Baltimore in 2023. He was a popular clubhouse leader and eclipsed 30 starts for the fourth straight season and seventh time in his career pitching for St. Louis in 2024.
Far from flashy, but at least dependable, which still matters when trying to navigate a 162-game season.
If it weren’t becoming obvious by now, the Orioles have a type with Gibson fitting the description of a veteran starter offering a solid floor and durability — hopefully anyway — without requiring a long-term commitment. Having invested more than $33 million to the trio of Morton, Sugano, and Gibson this offseason, Elias appears set on having a rotation that will survive even as we continue to ask how it will thrive with an underwhelming ceiling. Then again, availability can’t be taken for granted with injured Yankees ace Gerrit Cole — who eclipsed 180 innings in each of the six full seasons prior to 2024 — becoming one of the latest examples of pitchers being durable until they aren’t anymore.
Needless to say, it’s been a bad spring in the pitching department headlined by the Orioles losing right-hander Grayson Rodriguez and his enticing potential to a triceps strain and elbow inflammation that prompted a cortisone shot earlier this month. With Gibson himself needing time to ramp up before he joins the major league club, it’s fair to wonder if the Orioles are planning on Rodriguez being ready to pitch anytime soon as he’s just begun playing catch in a throwing progression that’s been described as starting his spring training over after he was shut down in early March.
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Making matters worse were injuries to left-hander Trevor Rogers (knee) and right-hander Chayce McDermott (lat strain), who were among the minor-league depth options behind the projected rotation entering spring training. Of course, right-handers Kyle Bradish and Tyler Wells continue rehabbing from 2024 elbow surgeries in hopes of being able to contribute at some point later in the season. Last year’s Orioles had 11 different pitchers make at least three starts, meaning they’re going to need more than the six or seven healthy names we’re discussing at the moment.
Of course, these rotation doubts wouldn’t be as concerning if questions about the bullpen weren’t also mounting. The Orioles lost right-hander Andrew Kittredge — their top offseason acquisition for the bullpen — to knee surgery that will sideline him until at least June, and they still haven’t committed to former All-Star closer Felix Bautista — now 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery — being ready for Opening Day. Making matters worse, Seranthony Dominguez — Baltimore’s closer for the final two months of 2024 — has continued to be plagued by the long ball this spring after allowing a total of 12 in 58 2/3 innings last year.
Perhaps Gibson’s arrival signals a long-term vision of right-hander Albert Suarez — who’s been competing with lefty Cade Povich for the No. 5 starter job — pitching in relief to help out a bullpen that will need more length at the very least. But you still have to question whether a dependable reliever would be more useful right now than another back-end starter.
No matter how much Elias and the Orioles want to point to the strength and upside of their young position talent, thoughts of the lineup having to compensate for a middling rotation and a bullpen that struggles to protect late leads are unnerving.
Perhaps it all turns out fine with the veteran experience of the rotation doing just enough — it’s not as though the AL East champions of two years ago resembled the 1971 Orioles — and Bautista looking like himself sooner than later to help the rest of the bullpen settle into optimal roles. But the pitching discourse is already prompting too many ifs and maybes before the long season even gets underway.
Gibson’s return does little to change that.
