Looking back at preseason predictions can be amusing or embarrassing, but that’s part of what makes it fun.
If we all knew how the 2021 Ravens season would play out, I’d spend less time writing about it and more time planning my retirement at the closest sportsbook. And perhaps the organization could have put the likes of J.K. Dobbins, Marcus Peters, and Gus Edwards in bubble wrap over the summer to avoid season-ending injuries.
Despite some understandable pessimism after that brutal run of late-summer injuries, the Ravens being 5-2 coming out of the bye week is still the record I envisioned at the start of the season. Of course, I predicted those two defeats coming against Kansas City and the Los Angeles Chargers instead of Las Vegas and Cincinnati.
Let’s review how my 10 Ravens predictions for 2021 are holding up through the bye week and adjust where necessary:
1. Lamar Jackson will again eclipse 1,000 rushing yards for a ground game needing him more than ever.
Though not exactly going out on a limb with this one, I wasn’t about to make any bold proclamations about a running back picture that’s been messy over the first two months of the season with the coaching staff not showing much trust in Ty’Son Williams and veterans Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman, and Le’Veon Bell lacking explosiveness. Former Pro Bowl left tackle Ronnie Stanley’s inability to return to action certainly hasn’t helped an offensive line that’s struggled to open running lanes on a consistent basis. Jackson is averaging just under 11 carries per game and 6.3 yards per carry for the second straight year, but Baltimore tailbacks combining to gain just 4.1 yards per carry is putting too much on the star quarterback, who is also attempting seven more passes per game than he did a year ago.
2. The Ravens will improve to 12th in yards per passing attempt and 26th in passing yards per game.
8Baltimore enters Week 8 ranked seventh in the NFL in yards per passing attempt, ninth in passing yards per game, and 13th in Football Outsiders’ passing efficiency metric, the kind of jump in the passing game even the most optimistic of Ravens fans wouldn’t have anticipated and also a reflection of how much they’ve leaned on Jackson’s arm. His touchdown pass percentage — 4.4% compared to 6.9% last year and an incredible 9.0% in 2019 — is the only number hurting his otherwise impressive MVP profile so far. For the passing game to perform so well despite summer injuries at wide receiver and an offensive line ranking 28th in adjusted sack rate is a testament to how valuable Jackson is to this team. There’s nothing left for the 24-year-old to prove beyond continuing his elite play into January.
3. Justin Houston will eclipse 100 career sacks while Calais Campbell will fall short of the century mark.
The 32-year-old Houston entered 2021 needing only 2 1/2 sacks to reach the century mark, but his two quarterback takedowns in six games sell short his impact as the Ravens’ best pass rusher over the first half of the season. Averaging just under 40 snaps per game, Houston has played more than anticipated, but he leads Baltimore in quarterback hits with nine and has held up pretty well against the run when asked to do so. In other words, his $2.075 million deal with incentives has been a nice bargain. Campbell may have only a half-sack, but he has easily been the Ravens’ best interior defensive lineman against the run and when it comes to disrupting the pocket. He is unlikely to reach 100 sacks for his career this year with still 7 1/2 to go, but the 35-year-old has played well enough for the Ravens to consider bringing him back at the right price. Of course, that’s assuming Campbell is interested in playing a 15th NFL season.
4. Justin Madubuike will lead all Baltimore defensive linemen in sacks.
Though there was always too much hype surrounding the former third-round pick entering his second season, the opportunity was there for Madubuike to show he’s the future star of an aging defensive line that was without starter Derek Wolfe for the first two months. Instead, the Texas A&M product has been solid but unspectacular with one sack — which does lead all Ravens defensive linemen, mind you — and 11 tackles in six games. Penciling him in as the starter at the 3-technique spot for 2022 makes perfect sense, but pumping impactful youth into the defensive line remains an offseason priority for general manager Eric DeCosta with Campbell and Brandon Williams scheduled for free agency and Wolfe’s health remaining a concern.
5. Mark Andrews will set career highs in catches and receiving yards.
My reasoning was more about the top three wide receivers missing so much summer practice time due to injuries, but Andrews actually got off to a quiet start with just eight catches for 77 yards over the first two weeks. Since then, the fourth-year tight end has 29 receptions for 439 yards and three touchdowns over five games. Graded by Pro Football Focus as the NFL’s top tight end, Andrews leads his position in receiving yards per game and is on pace for roughly 90 catches and 1,250 receiving yards over 17 contests, which would shatter his career-high marks from 2019 (64 receptions and 852 yards). He’s been worth every penny of the four-year, $56 million contract extension completed prior to Week 1.
86. Rashod Bateman will catch five touchdowns, Odafe Oweh will collect five sacks, and Ben Cleveland will be starting by Halloween.
Based on the way Bateman has played over his first two career games, this prediction still has a chance over the final 10 contests of the season, especially if the 27th overall pick sees more snaps than Sammy Watkins when the veteran returns. Oweh still has plenty of room to grow as a pass rusher at this level, but he already has three sacks and has been credited by PFF for 24 total pressures on just over 200 rushes, meaning at least a few more quarterback takedowns are in the rookie’s future. It’s been a lost season for Cleveland to this point with the 2021 third-round pick from Georgia landing on injured reserve with a Week 5 knee injury, but he’s expected to return and Ben Powers isn’t a lock to hold down the left guard job for the rest of the season.
7. Marlon Humphrey will receive votes for AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
Evident by this prediction, I am a big Humphrey guy and believe he’s been one of the game’s best cornerbacks going back to his second season, which made him more than worthy of the $97.5 million contract extension he signed last fall. That said, his 2021 play has been underwhelming relative to his high standard, a position supported by numbers from Pro Football Reference below. With slot cornerback Tavon Young back on the field and Peters being lost for the season in early September, Humphrey is playing much more on the outside than he has in a few years, which doesn’t allow him to showcase his physicality and ability to force fumbles as much. The Ravens ask a lot of the 2017 first-round pick, but your highest-paid stars need to be great, especially when trying to overcome so many injuries and other deficiencies. Humphrey hasn’t played like a star this sea son.
8. Jackson, Andrews, Humphrey, Stanley, and Justin Tucker will be named to the Pro Bowl.
Having said my piece on Humphrey and knowing Stanley’s left ankle ultimately required another season-ending surgery, I feel good about the remaining names with Jackson throwing the ball better than ever, Andrews playing like the best tight end in football, and Tucker hitting a record 66-yard field goal to win the game in Detroit in Week 3. Fullback Patrick Ricard or Campbell receiving another Pro Bowl nod remains a possibility, but the most intriguing candidate to add to this mix is Marquise Brown, who enters Week 9 ranking sixth in the AFC in receiving yards (566) and tied for second with six touchdown catches. My guess is that Brown won’t get enough targets in this offense to keep pace with other top names over the full season, but the 2019 first-round pick is having a strong season — especially if you take away his nightmare outing in Detroit — and definitely deserves some recognition.
9. Baltimore will survive a bear of a second half to finish 12-5 and win the AFC North for the third time in four seasons.
8As noted last week, the Ravens need to come out of the bye taking full advantage of the next three games against teams with losing records before the stretch run of seven consecutive contests against teams currently .500 or better. That includes three AFC North road games and two other opponents — Green Bay and the Los Angeles Rams — currently holding a combined 14-2 record. It won’t be easy, but an 8-2 record at Thanksgiving would put John Harbaugh’s team in great position to navigate a challenging path to a division title and a high playoff seed in the AFC. Even with their issues, the Ravens remain the deserving favorite to win the AFC North.
10. The Ravens will fall to Kansas City in a divisional-round heartbreaker.
If you had to guess which of these teams would be floundering at .500 halfway through the season, most would have picked Baltimore due to its lengthy list of players on IR, but the Chiefs have been a mess because of a lousy defense and league-worst 19 turnovers in eight games. Even if Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City are able to rally to get back on track in a wide-open AFC playoff race, the Ravens’ Week 2 victory should have eliminated any lingering intimidation factor if these teams happen to meet again in January. A superior defense leaves Buffalo as the deserving favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI in Los Angeles, but no team in the conference has looked invincible and the Ravens still have as good a chance as anyone if they can clean up their tackling and pass defense issues, get more out of their non-Jackson running game, and stay healthy from this point forward.
