There’s reason for enthusiasm in Baltimore as pitchers and catchers reported for spring training in Sarasota on Wednesday.
Registering a winning season for the first time in six years, the Orioles were one of baseball’s best stories in 2022 with a historic 31-game improvement in the standings. In fact, they were the first club since the late 19th century to finish .500 or better after losing 110-plus games the previous season and the first in major league history to win more than 70 games after completing each of the previous three full seasons with 100-plus defeats.
It was remarkable.
From the moment AL Rookie of the Year runner-up and star catcher Adley Rutschman arrived in the majors last May, Brandon Hyde’s club played like an 89-win team the rest of the way. There was no denying the 25-year-old’s impact on the field and in the clubhouse after three years of anticipation for his arrival as the top overall pick in the 2019 draft. Yes, Rutschman made the Orioles better in a way that not even his team-leading 5.3 wins above replacement — already better than all but one of Matt Wieters’ full seasons — could accurately reflect.
The thought of a full season of both Rutschman and infielder Gunnar Henderson — baseball’s consensus top prospect who impressed last September — in Baltimore is very exciting. Couple that with the potential for top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez to be part of the Opening Day rotation, and there’s legitimate upside for these Orioles, who haven’t won a World Series in 40 years. That the organization can nearly fill out a full starting lineup of prospects making top 100 lists across various outlets reinforces how bright the future could be beyond 2023 and how effectively general manager Mike Elias and the baseball operations department rebuilt the farm system.
Frankly, there should be more local enthusiasm for the Orioles, especially with the Ravens at a potential inflection point with superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson. Instead, last August’s “liftoff” proclamation from Elias resembled a Mark Trumbo leap at the outfield wall in practice this offseason.
Even for those who never expected a $200 million signing or a return to a nine-digit payroll over a single winter, the offseason activity was underwhelming with moves made mostly around the margins. And while the Orioles could technically puff out their chest about a 50% increase from their league-low 2022 Opening Day payroll, a projected mark of just under $65 million still ranks next to last in the majors for 2023. Factoring that with the continued absence of a contract extension for Rutschman or Henderson — or even a long-term lease for Oriole Park at Camden Yards — leaves fans wondering when ownership is going to make a show of good faith for the long haul beyond platitudes from club chairman and CEO John Angelos.
That’s not to say the offseason moves were all bad as Elias raised the floor of the starting rotation with the $10 million signing of 35-year-old right-hander Kyle Gibson and the trade for 29-year-old lefty Cole Irvin, who both pitched at least 165 innings last season. The Baltimore bullpen should be aided by the return of Mychal Givens, who can still offer effective middle relief. But there were also quite a few surprising pitching performances from unlikely sources last year that aren’t a given to be duplicated. A starting pitcher with more upside or a high-leverage reliever to pair with closer Felix Bautista wasn’t too much to ask.
The Orioles signed second baseman Adam Frazier and traded for backup catcher James McCann, but the bar left behind by Rougned Odor and Robinson Chirinos wasn’t exactly a high one to clear. It’s fair to wonder why an $8 million investment in Frazier — coming off an unimpressive 2022 in Seattle — was a priority with Baltimore’s system flush with infield prospects so close to being ready for the majors. Frazier’s .612 on-base plus slugging percentage last season and .728 career mark just won’t qualify as the difference-making bat for which many clamored.
If you could sum up this offseason, the Orioles looked like a club largely hoping to repeat the good fortune of last year — they finished with a negative run differential despite an 83-79 record after all — while spending little to do it and lowering fans’ expectations in the process. But counting on the same level of health and unexpected contributions in the rotation and bullpen may not be realistic, meaning the fate of the 2023 club will largely depend on less-proven talents doing much of the heavy lifting.
Rutschman, Henderson, and the rest of the core deserved more established help and a greater margin for error after the 2022 breakthrough and several years of payroll trimming. Instead, the organization’s offseason gave off a vibe that it’s still another year away, a sentiment that makes fans wary of multiyear rebuilds in the first place.
While these additions may provide a modest boost or prevent the Orioles from backsliding to 90-loss territory if 2023 fortunes aren’t as bright, they’re not the moves of a club determined to take the next step and recruit more fans to the ballpark in the process, something the organization needs after the damage done by a long, painful rebuild. The offseason was a missed opportunity in both regards.
None of this is to suggest the Orioles can’t succeed — especially with a revamped schedule including fewer AL East games — and qualify for the postseason for the first time since 2016, but there are no bonus points for fielding a competitive club as cheaply as possible beyond benefitting ownership’s wallet. After playing like a club a year ahead of schedule in 2022, the Orioles seemed too satisfied with that progress this offseason. The same element of surprise — on the field or with the fan base — won’t be on their side this time around.
And while fans should be excited for 2023, the offseason falling short of even the most reasonable of expectations was quite disappointing.
