BALTIMORE — Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher.
Those were late Hall of Fame manager Earl Weaver’s famous words that still hold true today despite the many ways baseball has evolved.
After Monday’s comeback win over the New York Yankees, observers dared to wonder whether that could be the one that finally gets the Orioles on a roll, especially if the returning Trevor Rogers could build on what had been relatively encouraging outings from Kyle Bradish, Chris Bassitt and Brandon Young this latest turn through the rotation. Instead, the Opening Day starter surrendered a Paul Goldschmidt home run on the first pitch of the game and six runs over the first three innings in Tuesday’s 6-2 loss.
So much for feeling any semblance of good vibes. It’s now been a month since the Orioles last won three in a row, and they’ve gone 10-17 since winning six of seven in the first half of April.
With the Orioles ranking 28th in the majors in starter ERA (5.03) even before Rogers’ dud, it’s no wonder they’re five games under .500 and much closer to last place in the AL East than first a little over a quarter of the way through the season. Of course, that doesn’t account for the woeful defense — which hasn’t done the pitching any favors — and inconsistent offense that have also factored into a deflating start.
Still, the rotation continues to be the most disappointing part of this club, which is saying plenty when every area other than perhaps the bullpen — which was the biggest preseason concern for many — has underperformed. It’s extremely tough to win when your starting pitching is as bad as it’s been to this point in 2026.
Unfortunately, those struggles begin with the 2025 Most Valuable Oriole, who was already struggling before an illness landed him on the 15-day injured list late last month. Rogers’ ERA now sits at 5.77 after he pitched to a remarkable 1.81 ERA in 18 starts last season. Some regression was inevitable for the 28-year-old lefty, but fortunes have swung hard in the opposite direction in 2026.
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“I think [the pressure is] there,” said Rogers when asked about the rotation’s role in Baltimore’s slow start. “That’s when you get into the point of like, ‘I have to go and perform. I have to do this; I have to do that.’ I’ll still put this rotation up against anyone in the league. It’s just things just aren’t going our way. … If we keep doing what we can control and keep doing what we need to do, I have no doubt that this is going to turn around — for me especially.”
It better if the Orioles are to make anything of this season.
Early injuries to veteran right-handers Zach Eflin and Dean Kremer certainly haven’t helped, but each of the projected top four starters pitching to an ERA of 4.83 or worse was never going to be a path to playoff contention. Whether you were buying Rogers and Bradish being a good enough 1-2 punch or not, they haven’t even pitched like good middle-of-the-rotation starters. Shane Baz and Bassitt were supposed to help this rotation’s ceiling and floor and have done neither to this point.
When Brandon Young — who entered the season eighth in the rotation pecking order — sports the best ERA of the bunch, you’re not in a good place. It’s also evidence that more blame falls on the healthy starters on which the Orioles were counting rather than those filling in for the injured.
While one can reasonably expect better from the top four the rest of the way, the rotation headlines several problems threatening to derail the Orioles’ chances for a second straight season.
