Instead of going through the exercise of making mindless league-wide predictions for the 2021 campaign, the following are only somewhat mindless predictions for the Ravens entering their 26th season in Baltimore:
1. Lamar Jackson will again eclipse 1,000 rushing yards for a ground game needing him more than ever.
Your guess is as good as anyone’s trying to predict how the backfield will look after the season-ending injuries to J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards over the last two weeks, but the strong bet is Greg Roman eventually figuring out a very good rushing attack as long as Jackson is out there putting stress on the defense and the offensive line stays relatively healthy. Still, Dobbins’ strong finish to 2020 made it easy to envision him emerging as the best Ravens running back since Ray Rice, which could have eased some of the running burden on the 24-year-old Jackson. This running game has definitely lost some upside, but Jackson is in line to again make history with his legs while the Ravens hope the likes of Ty’Son Williams and Latavius Murray can pick up the slack at tailback.
2. The Ravens will improve to 12th in yards per passing attempt and 26th in passing yards per game.
This is my latest rant on why we shouldn’t use counting stats for rankings. Yes, the Ravens finished 32nd in passing yards per game, but they were 18th in yards per passing attempt and 17th in Football Outsiders’ efficiency metric. In other words, this passing game was far more “mediocre” than “worst in the league” if we’re being intellectually honest. Of course, that still isn’t good enough, which is why general manager Eric DeCosta went to work revamping the offensive line and adding more talent at wide receiver this offseason. Much like the current state of the running game, it’s almost impossible to know what to expect early on with so many health-related absences over the summer. I expect new wrinkles like passing more often on first down, a few more throws outside the numbers, and Jackson working under center a little more often, but the Ravens will — and should — remain a run-first team even after the injuries to Dobbins and Edwards. In 2019, Baltimore led the NFL in touchdown passes, finished 12th in yards per passing attempt, and ranked first in passing DVOA, a profile that looked more than capable of winning a Super Bowl until the three-turnover playoff clunker against Tennessee. Jackson isn’t going to throw a touchdown on an incredible 9.0% of his pass attempts like he did two years ago, but this passing game will take a noticeable step forward.
3. Justin Houston will eclipse 100 career sacks while Calais Campbell will fall short of the century mark.
Regardless of how many sacks the defense collects after the free-agent departures of Matthew Judon and Yannick Ngakoue, you can bet Wink Martindale and the Ravens will lead the league in blitz rate (Pro Football Reference’s version) for the fourth straight season. After acquiring Campbell last offseason, DeCosta did well to add Houston, who’s collected eight or more sacks four straight years and is just 2 1/2 quarterback takedowns from 100. The 32-year-old has also been a valuable mentor, frequently working with the young edge rushers after practice. Campbell, 35, is eight sacks shy of 100, which could be out of reach for a defensive lineman who’s remains stout against the run. The Ravens have finished no higher than 13th in sacks since Martindale took over, but prioritizing the secondary and scheming pressure and deception has worked against just about everyone not named Kansas City these last few years.
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4. Justin Madubuike will lead all Baltimore defensive linemen in sacks.
I’m slamming the brakes on any talk of Madubuike being a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, but the 2020 third-round pick flashed the potential to be a force last season and followed that with a good summer. The early-season back injury to Derek Wolfe opens up more playing time for the 6-foot-3, 300-pound defensive tackle, so it will be interesting to see if he relinquishes the starting role.
5. Mark Andrews will set career highs in catches and receiving yards.
Baltimore’s top three projected wide receivers missed substantial practice time over the summer while Andrews was out there nearly every day and just signed a four-year, $56 million contract extension through 2025. Even playing in a run-heavy attack, the 6-foot-5, 256-pound Andrews eclipsing the 64 catches and 852 yards he posted two years ago seems very attainable with other parts of the passing game remaining a question mark. Jackson’s favorite target should continue to thrive.
6. Rashod Bateman will catch five touchdowns, Odafe Oweh will collect five sacks, and Ben Cleveland will be starting by Halloween.
I was too optimistic on Miles Boykin in this space two years ago, but the thought of a healthy Bateman returning sometime in October should excite Ravens fans after he managed to flash in the spring and summer despite not being right physically. The 6-foot-1 Minnesota product’s ability to win on the outside would be particularly helpful in the red zone where teams are sure to key on Andrews. Though Oweh faded a bit over the course of the summer after a strong start to camp, his athleticism and advanced ability to set the edge will keep him on the field for pass-rushing opportunities. He’ll continue to show growth in that department as the likes of Houston and Campbell tutor him. After missing valuable practice time with a concussion last month, Cleveland appears more likely to begin the season as a healthy scratch than as the starting left guard, but his opportunity will come like it did for former Ravens right tackle Orlando Brown Jr. midway through his rookie season in 2018. By the end of the season, the Ravens will feel pretty good about the first three picks of their 2021 draft class despite some summer adversity.
7. Marlon Humphrey will receive votes for AP NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
8The loss of three-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marcus Peters really hurts as you’re simply not going to replace his elite combination of coverage and ability to create turnovers, but we’ve seen Humphrey collect a combined two interceptions and forced fumbles as a rookie in 2017, three in 2018, five in 2019, and nine last season. That ability to take the football away is what wins close games and garners national attention, and his last two years playing elite football in place of the injured Tavon Young at the nickel drew even more praise. It’ll be interesting to see how Peters’ absence impacts the way Martindale deploys the versatile Humphrey in certain sub packages, but he’s poised for a big season being able to primarily play outside for the first time since 2018 when he was voted the team’s MVP by local reporters.
8. Jackson, Andrews, Humphrey, Ronnie Stanley, and Justin Tucker will be named to the Pro Bowl.
Stanley won’t be quite as good as he was in his 2019 All-Pro season, but his return to playing left tackle at a high level will be critical for an offensive line adjusting to having a new starter at each of the other four positions. Tucker will continue his excellence to remain on the path to becoming the greatest kicker in NFL history.
9. Baltimore will survive a bear of a second half to finish 12-5 and win the AFC North for the third time in four seasons.
The silver lining from the Ravens’ summer of injury hell is a schedule that opens with four of seven games against teams that had losing records in 2020, and they need to take advantage with eight of their final nine contests coming against opponents who were .500 or better last year. Cleveland is the biggest threat to Baltimore’s division title hopes and may even have superior across-the-roster talent, but I’ll still trust Jackson and 14th-year head coach John Harbaugh much more than Baker Mayfield and Browns coach Kevin Stefanski — even after the Ravens’ recent injury losses. Pittsburgh shouldn’t be dismissed to the degree some are saying, but the Ravens are still the desired intersection of the Browns’ talent and the Steelers’ pedigree.
10. The Ravens will fall to Kansas City in a divisional-round heartbreaker.
Maybe a convincing Week 2 home win would change my thinking, but the kind of upside lost with the injuries to Peters and Dobbins is exactly what you need to take down the Chiefs, something Baltimore hasn’t been able to do in its first three tries of the Jackson era. Perhaps the passing game takes a bigger step forward than I’m anticipating, but I’m not envisioning quite enough to take down Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City. Until Baltimore proves otherwise, I can’t be as optimistic about January and February as I was last year.
