With Orioles spring training workouts officially beginning in Sarasota, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. With Orioles fans arguably the most excited they’ve been for spring in decades, Thursday brought quite the buzzkill with news of Kyle Bradish being sidelined with a sprained UCL. Depending on the source, Bradish and All-Star closer Felix Bautista combined for 6.6 to 7.9 wins above replacement last year. Oof.
2. Philadelphia’s Aaron Nola has pitched at least 168 innings in every 162-game season since spraining his UCL late in 2016. The injury doesn’t guarantee Tommy John surgery. But unlike the timing for Bautista’s injury, a conservative approach could also threaten much of Bradish’s 2025 availability if surgery is the outcome.
3. Bradish hurting his elbow last month certainly expedited Mike Elias’ efforts to land Corbin Burnes. Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez could still be one of the AL’s best starting duos if the latter takes the next step, but adding another established veteran starter feels all but necessary now.
4. Part of the reason for that is the effect such starting pitching injuries have on the bullpen. With DL Hall now in Milwaukee, the idea of right-hander Tyler Wells settling into a late-inning role was very appealing, but he could now begin the season as the No. 4 starter.
With multiple Orioles pitchers setting career highs in innings last year, the start of spring training was going to be a greater "hold your breath" time than it already is. Tough news out of the gate.
— Luke Jones (@BaltimoreLuke) February 15, 2024
5. John Means is now 22 months removed from Tommy John surgery and is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day after being shut down for an extended period again last October. That doesn’t mean he won’t make meaningful contributions in 2024, but expecting 140 innings feels unrealistic at this point.
6. You know it’s a rough start to spring when an oblique injury to the 2023 AL Rookie of the Year is barely a blip on the radar. Gunnar Henderson should be ready for Opening Day, but you also don’t want to rush him with an injury having a high setback rate.
7. Cedric Mullins seeks a bounce-back season after dealing with multiple groin injuries in 2023. At the time of the first injury in late May, the center fielder had an .835 OPS and was arguably the club’s MVP. He batted .205 with a .614 OPS the rest of the season.
8. Though Henderson and Jackson Holliday will garner more attention, Jordan Westburg successfully stepping into an everyday role will be key for this Orioles lineup. The left-field wall at Camden Yards does right-handed batters no favors, but I expect to see more power in his first full major league season.
9. Joey Ortiz being traded to Milwaukee was good news for Jorge Mateo as he’ll settle into a reserve role. His speed and shortstop defense are givens, but Mateo becoming a trustworthy option in center field would enhance his value as a bench player.
10. It’ll be interesting to see how first base shakes out between Ryan Mountcastle and Ryan O’Hearn with the latter avoiding arbitration with a deal that includes a club option for 2025. Mountcastle had an up-and-down 2023 while O’Hearn’s bat faded late last season.
11. According to Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Orioles have a projected payroll of $96.4 million, which ranks behind Tampa Bay for 26th in the majors after ranking 29th at just over $60 million last year. I’ll continue arguing that aspiring to be St. Louis — 10th at $176.6 million — is a realistic long-term vision.
12. New ownership has no shortage of off-field business to tackle when officially approved by Major League Baseball, and the future of MASN is a headliner. That the network televising seven spring training games actually marks improvement from recent years is sad, especially given the excitement surrounding this team.
