With the Orioles opening the 2025 season in Toronto on Thursday afternoon and aiming for a third straight postseason berth for the first time since 1971, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. After an underwhelming offseason and rough spring that included injuries to Gunnar Henderson, Grayson Rodriguez, and Andrew Kittredge, this club has to be desperate to just start playing games. But you can’t help but feel the current degree of pitching angst was avoidable.
2. Even after a second half that included injuries and poor performance, Baltimore finished fourth in the majors in runs scored per game (4.85) last season. This group of young position talent has additional upside to realize too, which shouldn’t be ignored amidst the concerns about the pitching.
3. Cleveland made last year’s ALCS ranking 24th in starter ERA and 27th in starter WAR. The Orioles secured the top wild-card spot despite finishing 23rd in bullpen ERA and 17th in bullpen WAR. With strong offense and defense, you can overcome having a below-average rotation or bullpen. But not both.
4. Felix Bautista returning to high-impact form is critical for this bullpen, but Mike Elias made deadline trades for ex-Philadelphia relievers Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto with eyes on 2025 as well. They could prove pivotal to this bullpen being good enough to back a bottom-heavy rotation, especially through Kittredge’s absence.
5. Two years ago at this time, nobody expected Kyle Bradish to finish fourth in AL Cy Young voting. Cade Povich lacks that upside, but after a good September and spring, the lefty establishing himself as a legit major league starter would go a long way in helping this rotation.
6. Not that this town needs another MVP debate after the exhausting Lamar Jackson-Josh Allen discourse, but Aaron Judge won last year despite batting .207 through April. In other words, Henderson still has plenty of time to have a special season despite his early injured list stint.
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7. Jackson Holliday will still endure some growing pains, but it’s tough not to look at the leaps Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser made in their first full year and not anticipate good things from the 21-year-old infielder. He stole five bases this spring too.
8. With Elias spending just over $33 million on Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Kyle Gibson, I would have preferred to have seen an upside addition along the lines of Walker Buehler mixed in. Building a rotation to survive isn’t the same as having one that can thrive.
9. What are we expecting from Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo? Is Kjerstad actually going to see regular at-bats in a crowded outfield? Is there a real path for Mayo to return to the majors and contribute meaningfully? Depth is great, but has Baltimore maximized the value of these two?
10. In reflecting on Elias’ offseason, I’m reminded of Seattle executive Jerry DiPoto’s 54% comments a couple years ago that drew ire around baseball. The Orioles general manager has talked plenty about sustainability, but that isn’t galvanizing a fan base without enjoying an October breakthrough sooner than later.
11. Signing Henderson to a nine-figure extension is easier said than done, but the new ownership group introducing a direct-to-consumer in-market streaming option for Orioles games would have meant a lot to cord-cutting fans. The Orioles and Nationals remain two of just three teams in baseball still not offering one.
12. The AL East is wide open with every club having strengths and dealing with real flaws. The Orioles’ offseason was underwhelming and spring injuries didn’t help, but the position talent’s upside is undeniable. I still see an 89-73 finish and a wild-card berth, especially with a meaningful deadline move.
