With the Ravens aiming to advance to the AFC championship game in a divisional-round tilt at Buffalo on Sunday evening, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen will be forever linked as 2018 draft mates who ignored plenty of doubters to become generational quarterbacks. Sunday’s winner will still have heavy lifting to do to truly augment his legacy, but this is the kind of elite matchup about which we daydream all offseason.
2. The Ravens’ January shortcomings in recent years are no secret, but this franchise still has two Super Bowl titles this century. Buffalo has lost in the divisional round three straight years and carries the baggage of four straight Super Bowl losses from the 1990s. Talk about a tormented fan base.
3. The quarterbacks obviously headline this showdown, but even with a healthier second level this time around, Buffalo’s undersized defense against the league’s best rushing attack remains the most critical matchup. Nothing else will matter if the Ravens gash the Bills on the ground to the same degree as Week 4.
4. Baltimore didn’t sign Derrick Henry to lead the AFC in rushing or to add another Pro Bowl to his impressive career. It was for the bitter cold of January football and games against the likes of Kansas City and Buffalo, especially playing on the road. The time is now.
5. The Bills also want to run with the underrated combination of James Cook and Ty Johnson presenting challenges as rushers and receivers out of the backfield. As we saw in Week 4, a fast Baltimore start takes Buffalo out of what it wants to do, which includes Allen’s play-action passing.
6. Especially with Zay Flowers not expected to play, Jackson can’t shy away from scrambling. Unfortunately, he’s done that in past postseason games compared to his contemporaries scrambling more than usual, per Sharp Football. Jackson has absolutely nothing to prove as a passer at this point.
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7. The Bills punted on two fourth-and-shorts over the first 18 minutes of the Week 4 game. They didn’t blitz until the second half and deployed the kind of zone coverage Jackson easily picks apart. There’s no “answer” for the Ravens offense, but you have no shot without taking calculated risks.
8. Buffalo ranked second in the NFL in yards after the catch per reception at 6.6, which was just ahead of the third-place Ravens. Khalil Shakir ranked second behind only Ja’Marr Chase for most YAC yards among wide receivers. Keeping Bills receivers in front and tackling will be critical.
9. Though turnovers are an easy talking point every week, the Bills had a league-low eight giveaways while the Ravens committed only 11 for the third fewest. In contrast, Baltimore ranked 31st in penalty yards (1,120) while Buffalo finished 11th (833). Who will make the unforced errors?
10. It’s no secret Kyle Hamilton playing more as a deep safety has been a leading factor explaining the Ravens’ defensive turnaround, but you wonder if Zach Orr tries to deploy him closer to the line of scrimmage more often to try to neutralize Allen’s running ability. That’s a massive matchup.
11. “There’s no problem or nothing like that, but we’re competing with each other. I’m trying to beat you. I’m not trying to be your friend.” Jackson keeps a tight inner circle away from football, so not having a relationship with Allen is hardly surprising. Still, I respect that old-school mindset.
12. Justin Tucker hasn’t missed since Week 13, but he hasn’t had high-leverage opportunities in five straight double-digit wins either. Tyler Bass has lived with his 44-yard miss in last year’s divisional-round loss to Kansas City. Good luck to those two kicking a football that’s going to feel like a brick.
Prediction: An elite quarterback is the ultimate equalizer, which is why both teams always have a good chance to win regardless of the opponent, injuries, and other extenuating circumstances. I expect this to be a great football game, and neither team wants to be relegated to the head of the kids’ table in the AFC. That said, the Bills have no shot if Henry has another 200-yard rushing day like he did back in Week 4, making that such a crucial factor early on. Buffalo can probably survive 100 or so from Henry and still win if Allen and the Bills offense play at a high level, but that’s where I keep coming back to the Ravens having the edge even playing on the road. With Baltimore having the more complete roster even without Flowers, you sense Jackson and the Ravens can still win with even a “B” or “B+” kind of performance whereas the Bills may need to play their best game of the season to win, especially on defense. Considering that margin for error, I like the Ravens to win 27-24 over Buffalo to advance to the AFC championship game. But that’s also trusting John Harbaugh’s team to play without the nervous energy that’s lingered in the biggest January showdowns of recent years. Every game is the biggest one from here on out.
