With the Ravens aiming to take down Cincinnati and improve to 7-3 on Thursday Night Football, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Both teams have won three of four since their Week 5 thriller, but the Ravens want to stay on first-place Pittsburgh’s heels and the Bengals have little margin for error in the playoff race, let alone maintaining any AFC North title hopes. Baltimore can put Cincinnati in a dark place.
2. The trade deadline didn’t bring the pass-rush help many desired, but it’s tough to be upset with the Diontae Johnson and Tre’Davious White additions for practically nothing. Acquiring Za’Darius Smith would have moved the needle more, but improvement from within was always going to be paramount to fortifying championship hopes.
3. Marlon Humphrey said the defense “felt like we should have lost” the first meeting. Kyle Hamilton said Baltimore made it “too easy for them” and called Joe Burrow “dangerous when you let him get that comfortable.” This is a good test to gauge any meaningful defensive improvement being made.
4. Building on that, Dean Pees joined the defensive staff right after that first Cincinnati game with Humphrey noting Monday how the former coordinator “really kind of started to help out a little bit more” the last week. Bending is fine if this defense can learn not to break as often.
5. Lamar Jackson’s lingering knee issue kept him out of the week’s only real practice, but he doesn’t carry a game status. Considering how busy his legs were in the first meeting, it’ll be interesting to see if he’s more willing to run after carrying just three times against Denver.
6. Tee Higgins is expected to miss Thursday’s game, a significant absence for Cincinnati considering his big Week 5 showing, However, it’s worth noting Mike Gesicki has 19 catches for 264 yards and two touchdowns over the last three games Higgins has missed. The Ravens struggle covering tight ends too.
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7. While Travis Jones doesn’t carry a game status designation after not playing a defensive snap last Sunday, Bengals defensive tackle B.J. Hill is questionable with a rib injury and was arguably Cincinnati’s best defensive player in the first meeting. Each is an X factor at the line of scrimmage.
8. With Isaiah Likely out with a hamstring injury, Mark Andrews could be in line for a big night after his four-catch, 55-yard output in Week 5 snapped him out of an early-season funk. Then again, Charlie Kolar had the biggest game of his season against the Bengals.
9. Cincinnati ranks sixth in yards per carry allowed and held Derrick Henry in check until his long overtime run, but the Bengals still rank just 23rd in run defense DVOA and must account for Jackson’s red-hot arm. You can’t love their chances of containing Henry again on a short week.
10. Per Sharp Football, Cincinnati blitzed on 40.4% of dropbacks in the first meeting — a season high for the Bengals — with Jackson going 14-for-19 for 183 yards and two touchdowns. Perhaps having slot corner Mike Hilton healthy this time around will alter defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo’s approach some. Still, good luck.
11. The short week often leads to sloppy play, but the Ravens have the league’s highest passing success rate while the Bengals are third, per Sharp. Baltimore is first in red-zone offense while Cincinnati stands third. Though these teams combining for 79 points might be a reach, scoring should be plentiful.
12. That said, this explosive Ravens offense has been prone to occasional short-circuit moments even in normal weeks. Baltimore has committed just six turnovers while Cincinnati has nine, so we’ll see which quarterback and offense will be sharper despite less time to prepare.
Prediction: As the Ravens were reminded a couple weeks ago in Cleveland, it’s never easy playing an AFC North road game, and that truth is even more pronounced for prime-time contests on a short week, making Cincinnati the clear underdog. Jackson is the clear choice as the league’s MVP over the first half of the season, but Burrow has also been playing outstanding football despite a ground game that hasn’t been much of a factor overall, making him a major threat against a pass defense that surrendered five touchdowns and nearly 400 yards in the first meeting. The likely absence of Higgins is a major factor in this one as this defense can focus more on slowing down Ja’Marr Chase, who shredded the Ravens in the first meeting. The Baltimore pass defense has been closer to average than bad at home, and that will show up on Thursday night as the Ravens win 31-24 to complete the season sweep. This offense is just too much for the Bengals to handle.
