With the Ravens seeking sole possession of first place in the AFC North in their clash with rival Pittsburgh on Sunday afternoon, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Roquan Smith called last week’s defensive performance “embarrassing.” Zach Orr was “crushed” despite Baltimore earning the win. It’s been a week of soul-searching and honest conversations for “the little bros” desperately trying to find improvement. There’s no better place to start showing it than a high-stakes Ravens-Steelers game.
2. Kyle Hamilton’s return will help as the All-Pro safety doesn’t even carry a game status designation into Sunday. The Ravens are as healthy as you could reasonably hope to be in Week 11, but you hope Travis Jones’ ankle resurfacing on the injury report is more precautionary than real concern.
3. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh won’t have standout edge defender Alex Highsmith. Per Sharp Football, Pittsburgh owns a 38.2% pressure rate with him and a 28.5% rate without him, a stark contrast. Roger Rosengarten will clearly need help against T.J. Watt, so Ronnie Stanley consistently handling underrated backup Nick Herbig is critical.
4. Lamar Jackson’s past struggles against Pittsburgh aren’t a secret, but he’s playing better than ever and the Steelers have benefitted from one of the easier slates of offensive opponents to date. Still, the two-time NFL MVP turning in a signature performance in this rivalry is three or four years overdue.
5. Patrick Queen’s comments about not being wanted were much ado about nothing as everyone — Queen included — knew Baltimore wasn’t extending him from the moment Smith signed a $100 million contract. Anything that adds spice to a rivalry that’s become pretty dull is encouraged, however, and Queen enjoys playing the villain.
6. George Pickens and Mike Williams are matchup concerns in the vertical passing game, but Russell Wilson hasn’t thrown much over the middle of the field, the area Baltimore has been especially putrid defending. We’ll see if Pittsburgh sticks to its identity — including the ground game — or attacks the obvious weakness.
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7. Overshadowed by the overall struggles of the pass defense is how well Marlon Humphrey has played this season with Pro Football Focus placing him first in their coverage rankings. The turnovers he forced against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati reversed the momentum of those games. Can he do it again Sunday?
8. Perhaps Diontae Johnson gets his chance to burn his former team, but this offense is cooking as even Jackson acknowledged, “If ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Todd Monken praised Johnson’s efforts getting acclimated while noting it isn’t easy changing teams on the fly. The Ravens shouldn’t force anything.
9. The Pittsburgh front’s ability to limit scrambles while pressuring the pocket makes it particularly formidable. Per PFF, the Steelers have surrendered only five scrambles for 15 yards all season, and they’ve faced mobile quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix, and Daniel Jones. Of course, Jackson is a different entity.
10. Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews combined for five drops in last year’s brutal Week 5 loss with Monken noting this week — completely unprovoked — that the Ravens “gave that away” with such sloppiness. Those two should be particularly motivated to make amends.
11. Justin Tucker has made 28 of 29 field goal attempts at the place formerly known as Heinz Field — a challenging place to kick — with his only miss coming in 2012. In a rivalry game typically decided by one score, Baltimore really needs that version of Tucker to return Sunday.
12. The Steelers rank third in special teams DVOA and blocked a punt for a second-half safety in last year’s tilt in Pittsburgh, a play that woke up their dormant offense for a comeback win. The Ravens continue to be underwhelming on special teams, ranking just 19th. The little things matter.
Prediction: I was leaning toward picking Pittsburgh earlier in the week, especially since I haven’t picked against the Ravens since the season opener in Kansas City. No matter how sensational Jackson and the offense have been this season, I’m not overly confident Baltimore can win a Super Bowl without the pass defense showing some meaningful improvement down the stretch. How can you be after the head-scratching losses to two of the NFL’s worst teams — Las Vegas and Cleveland — earlier this season? But as Hamilton noted Friday, “There’s still a bunch of time left to get everything straightened out” over the final seven games. In the meantime, Jackson is playing at such an absurd level that it’s difficult to doubt him against anyone not named the Chiefs. His lack of success against Pittsburgh is more about limited opportunities than major flaws as he deserved better from his teammates in last year’s road loss, the only time he’s faced the Steelers since 2021. My gut tells me the Ravens go into Pittsburgh and secure only their second victory against their longtime AFC North adversary since 2019. But this rivalry has taught me not to trust my gut, which is why I’m picking the Steelers to win 26-23. Take solace in knowing the only thing as bad as Baltimore’s record against Pittsburgh over the last four years is my accuracy picking these Ravens-Steelers games — both 1-7. You’re welcome.
