With the Ravens aiming to win a fourth straight game and secure a season sweep in Cleveland on Sunday afternoon, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Baltimore hasn’t swept Cleveland since 2020, but Lamar Jackson was injured in 2021 and 2022 and the Browns offense was functioning at a higher level with veteran quarterbacks playing in those 2023 and 2024 defeats. That said, a 4-5 team has zero excuses to take this game lightly. Zero.
2. Jackson being less than 100% physically isn’t ideal against a strong Browns defense that gave the Ravens everything they could handle in that Week 2 game in which Baltimore’s defense and special teams led the way. You’d expect to see quick-game passing like Jackson used against Minnesota last week.
3. Ronnie Stanley has stayed healthy since the bye and will try his best to slow Myles Garrett, whose game-wrecking ability represents Cleveland’s best chance for an upset. PFF credited Stanley with surrendering five pressures and two sacks against Garrett in Week 2. Baltimore needs to be prepared to help Stanley.
4. Dillion Gabriel is averaging 4.99 yards per pass attempt. The third-round rookie quarterback has just 17 completions on throws 10-plus yards downfield and two on throws 20-plus yards downfield, per Sharp Football. If the defensive improvement is as real as many believe, the Ravens’ short-to-intermediate coverage should eat Gabriel alive.
5. Baltimore’s 45 rushing yards in Week 2 marked the lowest total in a game started by Jackson, which reflects how stingy Cleveland’s run defense is. The Ravens haven’t been running the ball consistently well between the tackles anyway, so testing the perimeter with Keaton Mitchell’s speed is a must.
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6. Cleveland won’t have defensive end Alex Wright and could be without defensive tackle Maliek Collins, who landed on Friday’s injury report with an oblique issue. If this offensive line can’t do an adequate job against a Browns front at less than 100%, that doesn’t bode well for December and January.
7. After Jackson saw plenty of Cover-0 blitzes against Minnesota, it’s worth noting Cleveland used them at a similar rate in Week 2. Jim Schwartz is one of the few coordinators understanding you have to take risks to have any chance against Jackson. Being passive against the two-time MVP doesn’t work.
8. With Marlon Humphrey out with a finger injury, Chidobe Awuzie will make his first start since Week 4. His playing time has declined since the shift to more three-safety alignments, but Awuzie has played really solid football, which was needed with the Jaire Alexander signing being a total flop.
9. It’s unclear whether Mike Green will play after he hurt his ankle Thursday. The injury doesn’t appear to be anything serious, but you hope it doesn’t slow the momentum he’s been building the last few weeks. The rookie’s development remains critical to this pass rush being good enough in January.
10. With Rashod Bateman sidelined, Devontez Walker will be active for the first time since Week 5. A windy forecast will probably limit Walker’s big-play potential, so Bateman’s absence may lead to even more red-zone opportunities for Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely.
11. As if their offense weren’t bad enough, the Browns are 30th in special teams DVOA after surrendering a kick return and a punt return for touchdowns in last week’s loss to the Jets. Currently fifth in special teams DVOA, Baltimore blocked a punt in that first matchup with Cleveland.
12. The Ravens having the opportunity to get to .500 with a fourth straight win isn’t stunning when considering the post-bye schedule, but this wasn’t a given knowing how the NFL works on a weekly basis. There’s no room for a letdown against one of the league’s worst teams.
Prediction: With the Ravens having difficulty running the ball between the tackles consistently and presumably not wanting Jackson to test his sore knee all that much, a forecast calling for sustained 20 mph winds and gusts exceeding that can’t be music to John Harbaugh’s ears. But that’s life playing in the AFC North in November and December — at least until the Browns open a new domed stadium in a few years. That said, Browns rookie running back Quinshon Judkins is far from the next Jim Brown, so it’s not like the Cleveland offense is in good position to take advantage of the elements either. Baltimore’s defense and special teams may need to lead the way as they did in Week 2, but Jackson and the offense taking care of the football and taking advantage of the opportunities the Browns give them should be enough to win this game. Considering the overwhelming advantage at the quarterback position, I like Baltimore to win 23-10 to move back to .500 for the first time since Week 2.
