With the Ravens aiming to rebound from last week’s loss and earn a road win against the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday night, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Though the “Har-Bowl” is the bigger story nationally, these teams are meeting with the top wild-card spot lead at stake. Beating the Ravens would easily be the Chargers’ biggest victory of the year, and Baltimore doesn’t want to fall to 7-5 with a quick turnaround to host Philadelphia next Sunday.
2. Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert enter Week 12 having thrown a total of four interceptions while starting every game for their respective teams. That’s tremendous work taking care of the football with December nearly upon us. Jackson remains a strong MVP candidate while Herbert has climbed that pecking order recently.
3. Herbert ranks second in the NFL in “big-time throws” charted by Pro Football Focus, which means he isn’t avoiding interceptions by playing conservatively. With no disrespect meant toward Russell Wilson and Pittsburgh, the revamped Baltimore secondary slowing down this ascending passing attack would be a more convincing sign of progress.
4. Jackson has looked mortal against Cover 1 man coverage, but Chargers defensive coordinator — and ex-Ravens assistant — Jesse Minter runs the league’s highest rate of Cover 4 zone and little Cover 1, per Sharp Football. Jackson can eat you alive no matter what, but Los Angeles needs to take some chances.
5. Meanwhile, the Chargers use the second-highest percentage of light boxes — six defenders or fewer — in the NFL while ranking a respectable 11th in rushing yards allowed per game. However, that’s a recipe for trouble trying to slow down Derrick Henry, so the Chargers very likely need to break some tendencies.
6. One of the game’s critical matchups will be Chargers rookie Ladd McConkey against Marlon Humphrey. Though nursing a shoulder injury suffered last week, McConkey has been one of the NFL’s breakout slot receivers. Of course, Humphrey is having one of the best seasons of his career.
7. Since their Week 5 bye, the Chargers are tied for the NFL lead with 5.8 plays of 20-plus yards per game, per Sharp. That’s even with Baltimore, so we’ll see if this game turns into more of a shootout despite optimism over recent changes made in the Ravens’ secondary.
8. Los Angeles will test the middle of the field more than Pittsburgh between McConkey and tight end Will Dissly. Though Roquan Smith has had his issues in coverage, anyone replacing him won’t inspire much confidence if the All-Pro linebacker’s hamstring injury keeps him out on Monday night.
9. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chargers run the league’s third-highest rate of play-action passing, which is another challenge for a shorthanded group of linebackers to handle. You wonder if the Ravens can afford to use Kyle Hamilton as a deep safety as often as they did in Pittsburgh.
10. The Ravens have no regrets moving on, but good for J.K. Dobbins staying healthy and looking more like the talent he was before multiple injuries. Both Dobbins and Gus Edwards want to have good performances Monday night, but that’s easier said than done against this run defense.
11. Little else needs to be said about the struggling Justin Tucker, but this sets up to be an attractive bounce-back opportunity kicking indoors. The Ravens obviously prefer scoring touchdowns, but the Chargers rank second in the league in both third-down defense and red-zone defense. They need Tucker to be sharp.
12. Jackson has been surgical on Monday Night Football, throwing 20 touchdowns without an interception in eight career starts. With Jackson coming off his worst game of 2024 and former offensive coordinator Greg Roman on the opposite sideline, he’s probably more motivated than usual to put on a prime-time show.
Prediction: With Jim Harbaugh having his first chance in 12 years to score a victory against his older brother and the Chargers having a slew of ex-Ravens on the roster as well as in the coaching and front-office ranks, there’s no shortage of motivation for Los Angeles. But that means there’s plenty of familiarity for both sides, and it’s worth noting that the Chargers’ schedule ranks as the NFL’s easiest to date, according to both DVOA and ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Baltimore offensive line desperately needs to improve in the penalty department and must be able to handle the Chargers’ talented front four, or the Ravens could find themselves in peril for the second straight week on the road. That said, Jackson has been too brilliant all season not to expect him to rebound from last week, which is enough reason to expect the Ravens to improve to 8-4 with a 27-20 victory over a Chargers team that will come back to earth with its four-game winning streak snapped.
