With the Ravens welcoming red-hot Philadelphia to town for an exciting interconference showdown on Sunday afternoon, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. How often do running backs headline big matchups anymore? This marks the first time two 1,300-yard rushers will meet in a season since Adrian Peterson and Arian Foster late in 2012. It probably won’t spark a renaissance in valuing running backs, but Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry remind that exceptions exist.
2. Baltimore is 23-1 in games started by Lamar Jackson against NFC teams. Vic Fangio has done a terrific job with Philadelphia’s defense, but Jackson toppled his Denver defense in 2021 and thoroughly embarrassed Miami last December. Do those experiences really help his Eagles players’ lack of familiarity facing Jackson?
3. Philadelphia has been on a roll scoring 26 or more points in six straight games, but DVOA ranks the Eagles’ schedule of defensive opponents as the league’s easiest. This Ravens defense is hardly elite, of course, but assuming the run-heavy approach will work against Baltimore’s stingy rush defense is ambitious.
4. That’s why the Eagles would be wise to deploy Barkley as a receiver out of the backfield more than usual, especially with Roquan Smith coming back from a hamstring injury and Ravens linebackers having difficulties in coverage all season. Barkley in space is an obvious concern.
5. Per PFF, Philadelphia has played man coverage at a top-10 rate, which is better considering Jackson’s relative mortality against Cover 1 this season. However, Next Gen Stats tracks the Eagles as using the NFL’s highest percentage of light boxes. That won’t play against Henry and this ground attack.
6. Barkley’s tremendous, but A.J. Brown is arguably the key to Philadelphia’s offensive greatness as he lines up mostly outside and has put up huge numbers in only eight games. Marlon Humphrey has played more in the slot recently, but I’d consider having him travel with the 6-foot-1, 226-pound Brown.
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7. For all the talk surrounding the ground game, Baltimore is averaging a league-high 8.2 yards per pass play while the Eagles are surrendering a league-low 5.0 yards per pass play, per Sharp Football. That’s quite the showdown between two elite units.
8. Though not carrying a game status designation this week, Travis Jones was back to wearing a brace on the ankle that’s troubled him since October. He continues playing through it, but given his importance against the run and as an interior rusher, Jones really needs this upcoming bye.
9. Two role defenders to keep an eye on are Malik Harrison and Chris Board. The former could see more time at the edge with Kyle Van Noy doubtful to play, and Board has been cutting into Trenton Simpson’s snaps on obvious passing downs these last couple games.
10. This probably isn’t the best week for the Eagles to be adjusting to life without Brandon Graham, who suffered a season-ending triceps injury last week and — even at age 36 — was arguably Philadelphia’s best edge defender against the run. He and Van Noy are key absences in this matchup.
11. If the Ravens need inspiration to continue rolling with Daniel Faalele, simply look at Eagles left tackle Jordan Mailata, a fellow Australian-born linemen who went from being a seventh-round pick to one of the NFL’s top left tackles. Faalele — or anyone else — will have his hands full blocking Jalen Carter.
12. Since Week 5, Jalen Hurts has averaged 9.45 yards per pass attempt and owns a 116.6 passer rating, but Philadelphia has only a 41.8% dropback rate, per Sharp. Forcing Hurts to pass and harassing him will be key with PFF grading him 31st out of 38 qualified quarterbacks against pressure.
Prediction: The Eagles have won seven straight games and are 12-1 against AFC teams over the last three seasons, so they also fancy themselves difficult to handle for opponents who don’t see them often. It doesn’t help that the Ravens are on a short week after a Monday game in Los Angeles, and we all remember how Baltimore fared in Cleveland six days after playing a Monday night game in Tampa earlier this season. Both the Ravens and Eagles are on the list of teams you could see playing in New Orleans in a couple months, but I’ve learned my lesson after incorrectly picking some very good NFC teams to beat Baltimore over the last few years. Though I like Hurts, the Ravens have the edge at quarterback and I doubt the Philadelphia signal-caller’s ability to go toe to toe with Jackson through the air unless DeVonta Smith is healthy enough to play and Brown absolutely shreds the secondary, which is quite possible. In a very entertaining game, the Ravens go into their bye week with a 27-23 win over the Eagles to improve to 9-4.
