With the Ravens trying to best Cleveland for the second time in three weeks to remain in sole possession of first place in the AFC North, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less, as well as a prediction for Sunday’s game:
1. Players and coaches said the right things, but they can’t be thrilled about this part of the schedule with the Browns coming off their bye to play the Ravens in consecutive games and Baltimore enduring a taxing loss at Pittsburgh. Ask the Steelers how much that rivalry game impacts you.
2. Cleveland hasn’t cracked 20 points in six of the last seven games while the Ravens haven’t reached 20 in five of their last six. Per Sharp Football, Baltimore (.209) and the Browns (.166) rank 28th and 31st in the NFL in offensive points per play these last four weeks. Yuck.
3. Lamar Jackson is really struggling against the blitz and isn’t taking advantage of clean pockets either. The offensive line isn’t good enough and is again without Patrick Mekari. Pundits have questioned Greg Roman’s passing concepts and route spacing. As Football Outsider notes, all of the above can be true.
4. Surprisingly, Jackson hasn’t rushed for a touchdown since Week 2, the longest stretch of his career. Though he already leads the NFL at 5.8 yards per carry and ranks ninth in rushing, Baltimore probably needs to lean harder into that element the rest of the way. It’s crunch time.
5. Anthony Averett knows opponents are going to attack a secondary without Marlon Humphrey even more, saying, “We know what’s coming.” If the Ravens can’t slow Cleveland’s underwhelming group of wide receivers, it certainly won’t get any easier with the other opposing offenses remaining on the schedule.
6. Tavon Young has played more than 35 defensive snaps just twice all year while Jimmy Smith played a season-high 42 snaps against the Steelers. A decimated secondary really needs their experience and ability down the stretch, but leaning hard on either is unsettling with their respective injury histories.
7. Despite being healthier overall and fresh off their bye, the Browns are feeling the effects of COVID-19 with tight end David Njoku, starting middle linebacker Anthony Walker, and punter Jamie Gillan placed on the reserve list this week. Njoku’s potential absence is significant with Cleveland’s frequent usage of tight ends.
8. The defense will show what’s under the hood after losing an emotional leader and top player in Humphrey and allowing 17 points in the fourth quarter. Wilting despite an 18-plus-minute time of possession edge through three quarters was concerning, especially as Cleveland’s ground game tries to atone for Week 12.
9. The Browns defense won’t intercept four Jackson passes again, but I don’t like Baltimore’s chances of limiting the Cleveland front to just two sacks for a second straight game. Tyre Phillips trying to deal with fresh versions of Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney is a concerning proposition.
10. We talk at length about the Ravens’ big problems, but eight pre-snap penalties against Pittsburgh — five on offense — are unacceptable. The present roster doesn’t have the depth or talent to repeatedly overcome self-inflicted mistakes, which include a minus-eight turnover differential tied for 29th in the league.
11. Despite problems on both sides of the ball, the Ravens remain first in special-teams efficiency. Field position, Justin Tucker’s right leg, and Devin Duvernay’s return ability will be even more critical the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Browns will be without their usual punter and holder on Sunday.
12. How important is this game? Per PFF, a win increases the Ravens’ playoff chances from 73% to 92% and their division title odds from 47% to 71% while a loss drops their playoff odds to 60% and division chances to 32%. Cleveland is in very legitimate must-win territory on Sunday.
Prediction: With signs pointing to some market correction for weeks, the Ravens falling in Pittsburgh wasn’t shocking despite the disappointment of squandering the opportunity to remain atop the AFC and increase their division lead over Cincinnati. The much greater concern moving forward was losing Humphrey since Baltimore had already been a bottom-10 pass defense with him, making one wonder if this might be the breaking point for a team that’s already overcome so much roster attrition in the process of winning six one-score games. The Browns don’t fit the profile of an offense ready to torch a depleted secondary, but they are the more desperate team and had an extra week to rest up and make corrections from their previous defeat at M&T Bank Stadium while the Ravens had little time to move on from the heartbreaker against the Steelers and begin preparing for a second straight division road game. John Harbaugh and the resilient Ravens deserve every bit of credit for being 8-4 at this point and remain in good position to make the playoffs with five games to go, but a slumping Jackson, numbers ranging from point differential to DVOA, and the eyeball test all suggest a profile more indicative of a .500 team, which is what they’ve been since their blowout win over the Los Angeles Chargers nearly two months ago. That won’t bode well on the road Sunday as the Browns will run the ball and use play action more effectively this time around to prevail in a 23-20 final.
