With the Ravens trying to snap a three-game losing streak in a critical AFC North showdown in Cincinnati on Sunday, below are a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less, as well as a score prediction:
1. A win gives Baltimore an 80% chance of making the playoffs while a loss drops that probability to 24%, per Football Outsiders. Numbers are similar for the Bengals. It doesn’t get much bigger than this with two weeks remaining after Sunday. Do you trust the decimated Ravens or inexperienced Cincinnati?
2. This is the tightest and most inclusive AFC North race we’ve ever seen, but that doesn’t mean the division is particularly good. The Ravens’ second-half struggles are evident while the Bengals have gone 3-4 since their win in Baltimore. The division teams rank 15th, 16th, 19th, and 20th in DVOA.
3. Even if Lamar Jackson manages to log some limited work before Sunday, signs are pointing to Tyler Huntley making his second straight start. Not only are we talking about someone who depends on his athleticism and had already been struggling, but Greg Roman acknowledged rust becoming a concern now too.
4. The Ravens entered Friday with nine players on the reserve-COVID-19 list who’ve played at least 30 defensive snaps this season, an alarming development for a unit that couldn’t stop the Bengals the last time they met in Week 7. No matter who’s playing, they must tackle better this time around.
Wink Martindale on the Ravens’ defensive roster churn and attrition from the beginning of the season to now: “I don't know if we're playing football or the Squid Games."
But he also emphasized other teams don’t care about their problems and how they must adjust.
5. Pro Bowl selection Ja’Marr Chase starred in the last meeting with eight catches for 201 yards and a touchdown. Since then, the rookie has gone over 52 receiving yards in a game only once. However, Cincinnati has no shortage of receivers who can hurt a shorthanded secondary.
6. The Bengals picked on Anthony Averett early in Week 7, and the fourth-year cornerback responded with three pass breakups in the opening quarter and played pretty well. If the Ravens can’t have Marlon Humphrey or Marcus Peters for Sunday, is an Averett clone too much to ask from Santa?
7. Since his 39-yard touchdown catch that gave the Ravens an early second-half lead in the last meeting, Marquise Brown hasn’t caught a touchdown or made a reception for longer than 22 yards. Regardless of who’s playing quarterback, Baltimore must find its downfield passing attack.
8. According to Sharp Football, Baltimore has allowed a league-worst 16 touchdowns from outside the red zone while Cincinnati has scored an NFL-best 18 from outside the 20. We saw what that meant in Week 7, but Baltimore minimized assignment busts last week despite using multiple practice-squad players in the secondary.
9. With Justin Houston and Pernell McPhee on the COVID-19 list, depth at outside linebacker is a clear concern. Beyond Tyus Bowser, Odafe Oweh, and Jaylon Ferguson, you’re looking at Malik Harrison — who hasn’t played on defense since October — or possibly Daelin Hayes, who’s been on injured reserve since Week 3.
10. The Ravens didn’t blitz much against Aaron Rodgers and again face tough choices against Joe Burrow, who was effective against their blitzes in Week 7. Burrow ranks second in the league at 10.8 yards per pass attempt against the blitz compared to 7.6 per attempt when not, per Sharp Football.
11. I was fine with Baltimore’s Pro Bowl selections with Mark Andrews and Justin Tucker being the most deserving. Though Jackson hasn’t been close to being a top-three quarterback in the AFC since October, this exhibition is about seeing the game’s superstars. Players and coaches around the league voted him in.
12. As of Friday morning, the Bengals had two players on the COVID-19 list and 10 players on IR while Baltimore began the day with 17 on COVID-19 lists and 17 more on IR. Circumstances can change very quickly and dramatically with the virus, but Cincinnati has no excuse to lose.
Prediction: Trying to pick a winner is challenging enough when a star quarterback’s status is in doubt, but a fluid COVID-19 situation makes it impossible to anticipate who might be activated or unavailable for either team by the time Sunday’s tilt at Paul Brown Stadium kicks off. The Bengals’ 41-17 blowout win in Week 7 means very little two months later, and I’m only confident that we’ll see a close one with the Ravens playing five straight one-score games and 10 one-possessions contests this season. The Bengals are currently much healthier and enjoy the home-field advantage, but Baltimore maintains an advantage in coaching and intangibles, which certainly matters in a meeting as critical as this one. Still, I can’t look at the current state of the defensive personnel and feel confident that Wink Martindale’s group will manage enough stops. And while Huntley has done much to show his viability as an NFL quarterback, a 30-point output against Green Bay hardly convinces me that the Ravens’ offensive woes are behind them, especially playing on the road. I’ll take the Bengals in a 27-23 nail-biter that at least won’t leave us debating a 2-point conversion decision from John Harbaugh all next week. But another narrow defeat will leave Baltimore’s playoff hopes looking bleak with two games to play.
