With the Ravens seeking a tie for first place in the AFC North and Pittsburgh aiming to clinch its first division title since 2020 in Saturday’s pivotal clash, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Kyle Hamilton said John Harbaugh regularly reminds players of the need to “learn how to not lose games” before being able to win. If that message doesn’t finally resonate against Pittsburgh on Saturday, why should we expect January games to be any different?
2. Asked about his hands-on coaching with emphasizing ball security this week, Todd Monken said, “I’ve been here for three games [against Pittsburgh], and we’ve turned it over eight times. We’ve fumbled it seven times. If that doesn’t tell you that’s a priority, I don’t know what is.” Enough said.
3. Lamar Jackson has posted a passer rating of 101.3 or better in 11 of the last 12 games. The exception was the first Pittsburgh meeting (66.1) when he completed under 50% of his passes. The Steelers have a good defense, but they aren’t the 1985 Bears reinventing the wheel either.
4. Of course, the offensive line needs to fare much better against a front that pressured Jackson on a season-worst 42.9% of dropbacks, per Next Gen Stats. T.J. Watt is banged up, but Pittsburgh will have Alex Highsmith, who missed Week 11. Baltimore must show it’s playoff-ready in this department.
5. Per Sharp Football, Jackson ranks 22nd in success rate and 21st in EPA per dropback against Cover 1 looks this season. Pittsburgh ran plenty of single-high looks in Week 11, so it will be interesting to see what answers Monken and Jackson have for that approach this time around.
6. George Pickens’ absence looms large as you wonder where Pittsburgh’s big-play ability is coming from. The Steelers ran the ball well enough protecting a lead for most of Week 11, but the NFL’s 30th-ranked ground game in yards per carry and EPA isn’t carrying them against Baltimore’s stingy run defense.
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7. You’d anticipate Russell Wilson looking more frequently to tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington for production through the air. Freiermuth’s numbers have trended up since his quiet Week 11, and the Ravens still rank just 27th in DVOA covering tight ends.
8. The Ravens rank first in red-zone offense while Pittsburgh is a woeful 31st. No matter how great Chris Boswell has been for the Steelers this season, such an utter lack of efficiency inside the 20 is going to doom any team eventually.
9. Speaking of special teams, Pittsburgh ranks first in DVOA while the Ravens are 22nd despite positive developments in the return game last week. In addition to Justin Tucker making kicks, Baltimore needs to be on the lookout for the Steelers trying to swing the game’s momentum in this phase.
10. Marcus Williams’ benching garnered more attention, but Marlon Humphrey went out of his way to discuss Hamilton’s move to deep safety and intellect getting the secondary properly aligned as the biggest reason for the defensive improvement. Though his highlight plays aren’t as frequent in this role, Hamilton remains very dynamic.
11. The absence of two players who’ve flipped sides in this rivalry may prove significant. Diontae Johnson would be helpful with Rashod Bateman questionable to play and Nelson Agholor out while ex-Ravens safety DeShon Elliott has been an underrated part of that Pittsburgh defense this season.
12. Zach Orr’s last game as a player was the 2016 Christmas loss that clinched the division for Pittsburgh and eliminated Baltimore from postseason contention. The stakes aren’t quite as critical for the Ravens in this one, but there’s certainly a message of not taking such opportunities for granted in there.
Prediction: Vegas likes the Ravens as a sizable 6 1/2-point favorite. The football analytics community continues to like the Ravens as a championship contender. Jackson is having the finest season of his career and remains one of the very best quarterbacks and football players on the planet. The pass defense has improved. But enough is enough against Pittsburgh. We know Jackson hasn’t faced the Steelers often and these teams haven’t played many high-stakes games in recent years, but it’s now been a decade since the Ravens have beaten Pittsburgh in a December or January game that’s truly mattered.
A win on Saturday doesn’t guarantee the division title nor does a loss mean the Ravens are destined to go one and done as a wild-card team, but at some point, you grow exhausted by Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown in these spots against Pittsburgh and Kansas City. At least the Chiefs have won three Super Bowls in the last five years, whereas the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game since 2016 and have been the inferior team to the Ravens overall for most of the Jackson era. Football games aren’t decided by computer models and paper, and Mike Tomlin’s team has seemingly been in Baltimore’s head for a while now.
With Pickens out, I’d likely pick the Ravens to win by two scores if solely going by the opponent’s profile. But I’m not about to lose my mind when these teams haven’t played a game decided by more than one score in five years and Baltimore committed a season-high in penalty yards only last week. I’ll say the Ravens win 20-16 over Pittsburgh to pull into a tie for first place in the AFC North. Baltimore needs this one to be taken seriously as a Super Bowl contender, and this team will find a way. But that’s also coming from the guy who’s picked just two of the last nine Ravens-Steelers games correctly.
