With the Ravens eyeing a third straight victory and trying to keep pace in the AFC North with a Christmas Day trip to Houston, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Baltimore hopes Saturday’s win marked the turning point for a January run, but Lamar Jackson doesn’t buy notions of getting hot at the right time. “I feel like that went out the window last year because … we went on a win streak, and then we lost in the AFC Championship.”
2. With division odds still not markedly better than a coin flip, the Ravens can’t assume anything as they’ll need another Steelers loss. However, losing Wednesday wouldn’t eliminate Baltimore from AFC North contention because a Week 18 Pittsburgh defeat to Cincinnati would bring the division record tiebreaker into play. Buckle up.
3. Three games in 11 days is brutal so late in the season as it’s a quicker turnaround than even a normal Thursday game since Kansas City-Pittsburgh kicks off at 1:00 and Ravens-Texans at 4:30 rather than prime-time starts. But the NFL $till care$ about player $afety, right?
4. The Texans haven’t made the leap many anticipated after their surprising 2023 season, and it’s reflected in their lack of success against winning teams. Though Houston can’t help playing in a lousy division, a 1-4 record against opponents currently above .500 screams “pretender” right now. Beating Baltimore would change that.
5. Coming off an outstanding Pittsburgh game and facing a defense ranking third in rush DVOA — but now missing standout safety Jimmie Ward — Derrick Henry figures to be critical playing on the road on a short week. Surprisingly, Henry hasn’t reached the end zone since Week 11.
6. Especially after Tank Dell’s awful knee injury, Houston will need to lean even harder on top wide receiver Nico Collins, who’s been good but mostly unspectacular since returning from injured reserve last month. An improved Baltimore pass defense can’t afford to let Collins go off on Wednesday.
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7. After winning the line of scrimmage against Pittsburgh, the offensive line now gets to face Pro Bowl edge rushers Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson. Running the ball effectively and staying on schedule will be key to not letting those two pin their ears back against Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten.
8. With a superb rookie season, C.J. Stroud appeared on a fast track to joining Jackson among the AFC’s elite quarterbacks, but his numbers have dipped across the board in 2024 as he ranks just 25th in ESPN’s QBR metric. Stroud has more than double the interceptions as last year.
9. That said, Stroud has received little help from the Houston offensive line that ranked 27th in PFF’s rankings entering Week 16 and lost right guard Shaq Mason against Kansas City. The Ravens should be able to exploit the right side of the Texans’ line that’s particularly vulnerable.
10. On Monday, John Harbaugh confirmed Desmond King will remain the punt returner, but he’s on shaky footing after fumbling twice against Pittsburgh. The Ravens just claimed former Houston receiver Steven Sims, who returned a punt for a touchdown in last year’s playoff meeting between these teams.
11. Speaking of waiver claims, Houston adding Diontae Johnson could make for a fun sideline camera shot, but you wouldn’t expect this exchange of discarded wide receivers to have any meaningful bearing on Wednesday. The Texans are desperate for receiver help, but Johnson is on his fourth team this calendar year.
12. The timing makes this feel like more of a spectacle than game, but hearing Jackson quip that he’ll sneak out of the locker room for Beyoncé’s halftime performance moments after Harbaugh warned of “big trouble” for anyone doing so was hilarious, especially since Jackson didn’t even hear his coach’s words.
Prediction: In the Harbaugh era, the Ravens are a so-so 16-13 in games immediately following a clash with Pittsburgh, which should serve as a warning coming off an emotional victory and playing on the road on a short week. The last thing Baltimore wants is to follow a victory over the Steelers by stubbing its toe, especially if the Chiefs offer up a Christmas present earlier in the day. You never quite know what to expect for a typical Thursday game, and this has the added element of being on a holiday, which is why I’m not expecting either team to be particularly sharp. That said, I’ll trust the better and more experienced quarterback and the superior running game to get the job done on the road. I like the Ravens to prevail 24-17 to keep their post-bye winning streak going.
