With the Ravens facing the Steelers in what amounts to a winner-take-all AFC North title game in Pittsburgh on Sunday night, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. Derrick Henry turns 32 Sunday, and the question will be whether his rushing attempts exceed his age for a second straight week after he carried a career-high 36 times in Green Bay. That would be a stretch, but Baltimore certainly needs to force Pittsburgh to stop the 252-pound running back.
2. The DK Metcalf suspension very well flipping the AFC North over the season’s final two weeks is one of the more staggering recent developments in this rivalry. Baltimore’s pass defense inspires little confidence these days, but Pittsburgh’s air attack was utterly toothless without Metcalf in Cleveland last week.
3. Having finished his first full practice week in two months, Lamar Jackson has a chance to make his biggest mark yet on this rivalry. He played well in last year’s playoff win over Pittsburgh, but this one would mean even more when considering the many challenges he’s faced this season.
4. We’re all human, and I wouldn’t doubt there are things the organization would change about Jackson — and others — in a perfect world. But I struggle to understand the ease with which some discuss moving on from a two-time MVP as though finding quarterbacks of that caliber is casual work.
5. Though T.J. Watt will be making his return and has the ability to wreck a passing game, Baltimore shouldn’t hesitate to run right at the eight-time Pro Bowl edge rusher. You have to wonder how his strength and conditioning will hold up after recovering from a partially collapsed lung.
6. The Ravens rushed for 217 yards in the first meeting, but Steelers rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon was injured and has made a marked difference for their run defense. All things considered, Pittsburgh would probably live with Henry duplicating his 94 yards on 25 carries like last time.
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7. Kyle Hamilton was voted team MVP by local reporters and was the driving force behind stabilizing a defense that led Baltimore on a five-game winning streak, but he’s still lacking a signature moment for this season. Considering Pittsburgh’s underneath passing game, Hamilton should have an opportunity to change that.
8. Though Aaron Rodgers found no answers without Metcalf last week, you worry about him catching Baltimore in bad calls, which has happened too often this season. That said, it was only three years ago that Rodgers came up small in a similar game to conclude his time in Green Bay.
9. Though the Steelers will certainly miss Metcalf and Darnell Washington, speedy receiver Calvin Austin is set to return. Rodgers would be wise to look to his tight ends down the middle and running backs Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren as receivers out of the backfield more often.
10. We’ve talked about Tyler Loop not encountering many high-leverage situations as a rookie, and Pittsburgh is one of the most challenging venues for kickers across the league. Loop is going to need to make a high-pressure kick at some point, and there’s no better time than Sunday night.
11. Congratulations to the 36-year-old John Jenkins for signing an extension after surviving on one-year deals since the final season of his rookie contract back in 2016. With Nnamdi Madubuike and Broderick Washington combining to play five games all season, Jenkins proved to be very important to this defensive front.
12. I’m skeptical that John Harbaugh or Mike Tomlin is going anywhere as these organizations rarely cave to outside criticism. That said, Tomlin losing to a 3-12 team and then his biggest rival at home to choke away a two-game lead would be worse than anything you can pin on Harbaugh.
Prediction: On paper, the choice seems pretty clear when you consider Metcalf’s absence and how critical his performance was to Pittsburgh’s win in Baltimore in Week 14. There’s also the mental toll for the Steelers to overcome knowing they threw away their chance to clinch the division in Cleveland last week. That said, “on paper” is a phrase that gets you in trouble when discussing this rivalry, and much of the optimism being expressed about the Ravens this week defaults back to what we believed this team would be and a perception that maybe it’s finally — seriously this time — coming together after months of frustrating mediocrity. I need to see more to not shake the feeling that Lucy is going to pull the ball away from Charlie Brown late Sunday night or even in next week’s wild-card round, and I don’t have much confidence in this football team in these moments when tension runs high. But I believe even less in the Steelers, which is why I’ll take the Ravens to survive a 20-17 final to win their third straight AFC North championship and qualify for the playoffs with a 9-8 record. That alone doesn’t make this a successful season, but earning a chance to reset and roll the dice in January should never be taken for granted. Baltimore would become just the fifth team in NFL history to rebound from a 1-5 start to make the playoffs.
