With the Ravens needing only a victory against Cleveland on Saturday to clinch the AFC North and secure a first-round home playoff game, I’ve offered a dozen thoughts, each in 50 words or less:
1. A near-20-point spread sounds absurd for any division matchup, especially when the underdog won the first meeting. But nine Browns players who were part of that Week 8 upset are now on injured reserve, and four more starters were ruled out Thursday. Cleveland is both terrible and terribly depleted.
2. The Ravens are extremely healthy. In fact, not a single Week 1 starter is currently on injured reserve. You’d love to be able to jump all over the Browns to the point of being able to take your foot off the gas and rest some veterans late in the game.
3. Suggesting I have MVP fatigue is an understatement. Lamar Jackson would receive my vote, but Josh Allen is a fine choice depending on one’s “most valuable” definition. My one guarantee? The winner will be mocked if he’s accepting the award at NFL Honors and not preparing for the Super Bowl.
4. Asked about setting the passer rating record, Jackson said a “childhood mindset” would focus on that rather than winning, which is a refreshing contrast to this obsession many have with the MVP discussion. Jackson needs one more touchdown pass for 40 and 45 passing yards for 4,000. That’s plenty special.
5. Jackson is also on the verge of leading Baltimore to its fifth home playoff game since he became the starting quarterback in 2018. The Ravens played a total of five home playoff games in their 22 years before that. Of course, it’s time to take the next step.
6. Meanwhile, Bailey Zappe will become the 40th quarterback to start a game for Cleveland since 1999 and the seventh different one to start since the Browns signed Deshaun Watson to a guaranteed $230 million contract in 2022. Zappe has to be better than Dorian Thompson-Robinson though, right? I think so.
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7. Todd Monken has a way with words and was asked what a great running back does for an offense’s peace of mind: “It’s kind of a smoke break for your quarterback.” Derrick Henry owes Jackson more for his 2024 success than the other way around, but he’s eased Jackson’s burden.
8. Since Week 11, the Ravens rank first in yards and points allowed per game, yards per pass attempt allowed, opponent passer rating, and third-down defense. After giving up 22 touchdown passes over the first 10 games, Baltimore has surrendered a league-low four over the last six. What a defensive turnaround.
9. Though Kyle Van Noy has led the way with a career-high 11 1/2 sacks, Odafe Oweh needs one more for the Ravens to have two defenders with double-digit sacks for the first time since 2014 when Elvis Dumervil (17) and Terrell Suggs (12) did it. Not bad at all.
10. Say what you want about the rest of the Browns, but Myles Garrett will be concluding his fourth straight season of at least 14 sacks. He didn’t record one in Week 8, but he registered nine pressures and gave Ronnie Stanley all kinds of difficulty. Just keep Jackson upright.
11. Yes, fullback is a niche position, but Patrick Ricard just joined Ray Lewis, Jonathan Ogden, Ed Reed, Marshal Yanda, Suggs, Justin Tucker, and Haloti Ngata as the only Ravens to make five or more Pro Bowls. That’s pretty special company for a former undrafted defensive tackle out of Maine.
12. I’ve seen some complaining about the game’s Saturday afternoon placement, but Pittsburgh — also mired in a three-game losing streak — electing to rest starters and forgo a chance to go to Houston instead of Baltimore in the opening round would be quite a choice by Mike Tomlin. The scheduling was fine.
Prediction: Ahead of the Week 8 tilt in Cleveland, there were at least some variables to envision the upset scenario that ultimately played out with the maddening but talented Jameis Winston making his first start in more than two years and the Ravens playing on a short week after a Monday road game and being without cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins. Even if Zappe can rediscover some of that fleeting mojo he enjoyed with New England last season when he threw three touchdowns to upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh, that feels like the best-case scenario for the Browns merely to keep this game somewhat interesting. The talent deficit is extreme when accounting for Cleveland’s injuries, which is why Baltimore is favored to win by three scores. The Ravens have too much for which to play and would have to turn in an all-time stinker of a performance that would easily eclipse what happened against Las Vegas in Week 2 or in that October loss to the Browns to cough this one up. John Harbaugh’s team will do what it’s supposed to do and win its second straight division title and fourth in seven years with a 33-6 victory over the Browns.
